Seems Russia hit Romania last night. 🙁
THEGUARDIAN.COM NATO is drafting a strongly-worded letter. Let's get some proper drone defences, maybe?
I missed this but Ukraine hit a Russian frigate last week
Ukraine has been going after the "archers" for some time now and the Admiral Essen is equipped with Vertical Launch (VLS) capabilities. It's the second attack on this ship since March.
The other ship is one of only two Project 1239 "hovercraft". It's actually a missile corvette on a multihull design.
NATO is drafting a strongly-worded letter. Let's get some proper drone defences, maybe?
I'm not familiar with the publisher and don't know enough to comment on it's veracity but this provides an overview of European Defence changes up to 2025. Published a couple of months back.
No real surprises that it's less a problem in any of the cumulative numbers but of fragmentation and lead times.
NATO is drafting a strongly-worded letter. Let's get some proper drone defences, maybe?
I'm not familiar with the publisher and don't know enough to comment on it's veracity but this provides an overview of European Defence changes up to 2025. Published a couple of months back.
No real surprises that it's less a problem in any of the cumulative numbers but of fragmentation and lead times.
NATO is allied with the most advanced country in the world in drone defence.
Ukraine has achieved incredible drone detection and defence capability under war conditions in a couple of years.
One of Ukraine's lessons is to chuck the procurement book out of the window and modernise.
Too many vested interests within NATO cause fragmentation, but they do write a good letter 😉
grim
President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine sees Russia preparing for a "big massive attack" using drones, cruise & ballistic missiles to take place today or tomorrow at night. He warns Ukraine has a big deficit of anti-ballistic missiles.-CBS News
— Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social) 2026-05-29T14:51:10.710Z
NATO is allied with the most advanced country in the world in drone defence.
Quite.
Don't hold me to this as it's coming from YouTube, but that might have been the 28th Drone incursion into Romania. It's also claimed the flight time from the border to the impact site is around 5 minutes and there's a policy of often leaving them as that's a lower risk, not zero, but lower. Again, allegedly some of these drones actually change course and head back to Ukraine. On the rather flimsy assumption all of that is true the actual 'correct' response from NATO becomes a much greyer calculation.
And, more credibly for sourcing information. Just a few days ago Romanian F16s did in fact intercept drones. But not over Romania. And, to add to the greyness of the situation, not a Russian drone.
POLITICO.EU And, more credibly for sourcing information. Just a few days ago Romanian F16s did in fact intercept drones. But not over Romania. And, to add to the greyness of the situation, not a Russian drone.
Something similar has just resulted in a change of management in Latvia.
Ukrainian drones diverted by Russian electronic warfare. Interception was held to be more risky than letting the drones through
Interim government appointed, GE in six months.
I think that Russia will be happy with that outcome and the loss of Latvian infrastructure
KYIVINDEPENDENT.COM I missed this but Ukraine hit a Russian frigate last week
Ukraine has been going after the "archers" for some time now and the Admiral Essen is equipped with Vertical Launch (VLS) capabilities. It's the second attack on this ship since March.
The other ship is one of only two Project 1239 "hovercraft". It's actually a missile corvette on a multihull design.
It seems that it isn't the Admiral Essen after all.
It's a Krivak I anti-submarine (A/S) ship, originally designed in 1956. It carries missiles but A/S type and is apparently not crewed
KYIVPOST.COM
Swedish Gripens gifted to Ukraine. Unsure if they will have a front line effect for the boys on the ground due to the value of each airframe / pilot. Might be best used launching amraams at range against RU bombers who are using a lot of glide bombs as stand off munitions without putting themselves in the danger zone.
Swedish Gripens gifted to Ukraine. Unsure if they will have a front line effect for the boys on the ground due to the value of each airframe / pilot. Might be best used launching amraams at range against RU bombers who are using a lot of glide bombs as stand off munitions without putting themselves in the danger zone.
Might be best used launching amraams at range against RU bombers who are using a lot of glide bombs as stand off munitions without putting themselves in the danger zone.
The problem is that the latest Russian guided glide bombs have a greater range than the latest AIM120D AMRAAM, which is why President Zelensky is so keen on the MBDA Meteor ^^.
Another reason is that Russia uses the R37-M air-to-air missile, which reportedly can reach 200km
Zelensky stated that the Gripens will help Ukraine defend against Russian guided glide bombs. Zelensky stated that the Gripen’s Meteor air-to-air missiles with a range of 200 kilometers will help to displace Russian aircraft and hinder Russia’s ability to launch massive glide bomb strikes.
Russia has also recently increased the capability of the guidance antenna systems from four-elements to twelve and, in the case of the UMPB-5R jet-powered guided bomb, sixteen-element CRPA to better filter out electronic warfare that has longer to take effect over extended ranges of 150km (but within Meteor range).
The bombs are eminently detectable and can be targetted, but are much smaller targets than an aircraft
EN.DEFENCE-UA.COM
but within Meteor range
This seems the important bit.
Ukraine have spent years now degrading all the radars and ground to air systems Russia has. It's surely paving the way for more Ukrainian air patrols. Combine that with 200km stand off range, and they can really reduce both numbers of these glide bombs and air launched missiles, or be taking out Russian planes.
but within Meteor range
This seems the important bit.
Ukraine have spent years now degrading all the radars and ground to air systems Russia has. It's surely paving the way for more Ukrainian air patrols. Combine that with 200km stand off range, and they can really reduce both numbers of these glide bombs and air launched missiles, or be taking out Russian planes.
I think that the other point is that the degradation of Russian systems may ease the way for Ukraine's home-grown less than stealthy missiles and guided bombs.
There are all sorts of questions though, maybe @willard and @nickc can help out?
What does the current Swedish AF fit include?
The Swedish AF has been updating the C/D version (from 2023) and the programme will continue after 2027. Will the 16 freebies be upgraded or pre-upgrade?
If these have to be modified to take Meteor, which is entirely doable, then it'll delay things.
Will they get later upgrades (after their transfer) which will allow operations for possibly ten more years until the newer E/F models are up and flying?
The later C/D radar can "see" air-to-air out to 180km, however, the Gripen is designed to work as part of a network so can be teamed with more powerful radar on the ground and in the air. Ukraine took delivery of a Saab 340 AEW (Airborne Early Warning and Control) in March, which should spice things up a bit.
The reality of the Russian R37-M air-to-air missile is that it hasn't been mentioned as a major problem by Ukraine's pilots; Russia's missile and radar specs are believed to be a bit optimistic
SAAB.COM 
THEAVIATIONIST.COM https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen
...reduce both numbers of these glide bombs and air launched missiles, or be taking out Russian planes.
The area in and around Taganrog Air Base has taken a bit of a pasting during this week. I don't know the flying status of the Tu-142 "Bear" aircraft, nor their specialisms (they could be anything from engine test aircraft to anti-submarine warfare) but it's probably fair to say that their "spares or repair" value has taken a nosedive.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian military assets, including an Iskander missile system, in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 29 to 30. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported that Ukrainian strikes destroyed two Tu-142 long-range aircraft at a Russian military air base in Taganrog and an Iskander missile system at a launch position near Taganrog. Geolocated footage published on May 30 confirms the destruction of a Tu-142 at the Taganrog Airport and the Iskander system near Mykhailovka (northwest of Taganrog). Ukrainian defense source Militarnyi, citing satellite imagery and open sources, reported that the two Tu-142 aircraft have been in long-term storage at the Taganrog Aviation Plant since 2011 and that Russian forces moved them in April and May 2026 onto auxiliary runways for unclear reasons.
Satellite imagery collected on May 28 confirms damage to the Taganrog Air Base after the Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike on May 26-27. The satellite imagery shows that the strike destroyed two facilities of a Russian communications and radio support battalion at the air base. The imagery shows that Russian forces moved military equipment to another location after the strike.
UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG An assessment of Russian ballistic missile production by Fabian Hoffman, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project researching nuclear strategy and missile technology.
His conclusion is pasted below. The full article is linked too
To maintain a sustainable denial posture, Ukraine would likely need access to at least 120 PAC-3 MSE-type interceptors per month, valued at roughly USD 800-900 million on the international market, according to relatively recent budget requests. Even if such volumes could be imported, which is nowhere near realistic, Ukraine lacks sufficient ballistic missile defense launchers to cover its entire territory.
Promises to deploy a European Patriot alternative as early as next year, such as those made by FirePoint, are not realistic, even if such an effort must be pursued. Ukraine’s best course of action in the short-term is to continue targeting the Russian ballistic missile production supply chain through its increasingly capable long-range arsenal. Electronic warfare efforts aimed at degrading the accuracy of Russian ballistic missiles could reduce their impact, even if they cannot stop them outright.
Western states must reinforce sanctions and tighten third-party measures to ensure that advanced Western components do not reach Russian ballistic missiles, or, where this cannot be fully prevented, that doing so carries the highest possible cost and effort for Russia.
MISSILEMATTERS.SUBSTACK.COM 1000 truck and fuel tankers destroyed in 2 days and 1400+ casualties for the last 2 days - source : official ukraine stats
@timba Local press here (
SVT.SE suggests they will be getting Gripen E, so pretty late models and with the option to buy a LOT more.
The article above suggests that the factory will have to double the capacity from 15/year to 30 to meet this demand (from UKR and CA).
My understanding is the the E model integrates well with the Ski-box, so as long as _that_ can see the RU air assets, mMeteor should be able to swat them. I do not know how effective the return from the RU missiles will be, but my guess is that, without a similar AWACS asset (IL-76 or similar with UKR has been trying to kill), as long as the Ski-box can stay out of the way, the Gripen can get in range, shoot, and then scoot before the return fire.
@timba Local press here (
suggests they will be getting Gripen E, so pretty late models and with the option to buy a LOT more.
Thanks for that.
Do you have any more on the C/D models for 2027? I think that the E-models are the bought aircraft for delivery in the 2030s.
For anyone following the link above, a stray ) has found it's way onto the link, breaking it
The article above suggests that the factory will have to double the capacity from 15/year to 30 to meet this demand (from UKR and CA).
My understanding is the the E model integrates well with the Ski-box, so as long as _that_ can see the RU air assets, mMeteor should be able to swat them. I do not know how effective the return from the RU missiles will be, but my guess is that, without a similar AWACS asset (IL-76 or similar with UKR has been trying to kill), as long as the Ski-box can stay out of the way, the Gripen can get in range, shoot, and then scoot before the return fire.
"IL-76 or similar" is the Beriev A50 for inveterate googlers 😊
Thanks Willard 👍
Incase anyone else is wondering what a 'ski box' is:
tldr; its a thing that can be mounted on a smallish plane to give it AWACS type capabilities. The skibox can network with the new planes they have bought, allowing the fighters to see much further. Ukraine has bought a couple of ski boxxes, but im not sure if they have been delivered yet.
Right, tried to find info on the official site for the military here, but only found a lot of the pieces that they had been putting out on Aurora 2026 and Locked Shields, so had to resort to Wikipedia...
Sweden flies _just_ the C/D models (produced from 2012 onwards) with the Ms20 upgrade. This allows them to carry/launch Meteor (as well as a bunch of other capabilities for the later sub-upgrades that are shared with Czech versions). The later upgrades are part of a package designed to keep the C/D models relevant until the 2030s. JAS39 E/F models apparently started being delivered in 2023 (to us and the Brasilen airforce) and is operational (since 2025) at Skaraborg.
TL;DR: The nations that run C/D, with MS20 or later, or E/F models can all deploy Meteor and that _should_ be all the .SE planes and the NATO partners. Maybe Hungary's export version, but they are mostly A/B airframes upgraded to C/D and I am not sure about the upgrades they have received as part of that.
I think that the other point is that the degradation of Russian systems may ease the way for Ukraine's home-grown less than stealthy missiles and guided bombs.
I think the air war over Ukraine is the shape it is because of the differences in doctrine between the VKS (Russian air force) - and therefore the Ukrainian, which at the start of the war was very much molded in it's image, and NATO. Since the start of the war, Ukraine has been receiving support from NATO and EU in logistical support especially airplanes, and to be able to use them most effectively is having to learn NATO doctrine.
The major difference between Russian and NATO doctrinal use of air power is that NATO sees it very much as the primary strategic weapon, whereas the VKS is very much in support of land forces as both an extension of artillery and air defence. The biggest single difference is that to ensure that they have air superiority and eventually supremacy, NATO (mostly the USAF and US Navy) employ a couple of specialist aircraft in a SEAD (Air defence suppression) role - The F16-C/J and F18-G. These aircraft go in first and destroy/degrade the enemy; it's A2A missile, radar and electronic warfare capability. The VKS doesn't have this sort of capability at all - and neither does the UAF, and hence why neither as achieved air superiority over the battlefield, and why they both have developed a drone warfare alternative.
Which is largely why we see what's going on now, outside of the immediate and very localised drone war, both the VKS and UAF stand-off at about 200-300km and throw very long range missiles and large drones at each other, hoping that they hit strategic ground targets. The problem with this is that NATO doesn't really have weapons that do that, whereas the VKS has developed this model pretty well, and has a series of missiles that it uses as part of it's 'long range artillery' role.
In order to utilize the F16 and now JAS39 it's going to receive, which are both very good platforms, but are designed to be operated in a battlefield that has air superiority at the very least, the UAF are going to have to start to operate in a much more NATO style - which involves lots and lots of pilot re-training, and is going to probably see a lot of airplanes being shot down by the very good air defense systems that the VKS has developed to counter it, until the UAF has (hopefully) degraded the air defence capability of the VKS - a VERY tall order for a single country's air force, regardless of the weaponry it's being supplied with.
So the UAF is trying to develop a combination of these tactics that allow it to employ longer range EU weapons - the Meteor (which is essentially a BVR missle designed for A2A combat) to shoot down the airplanes of the VKS that are launching the Kh47, 101, the R37 and K77 from within Russian airspace. Shoot down enough and you force the VKS to use different airplanes that need to come into UAF airspace (or at least much closer) that you can then shoot down with man-pads and A2A aircraft, and hopefully neutralise the 'long range artillery' model and achieve air superiority over the air space.
It's a plan, but it's a very very difficult one.
