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Couldn't be done last time he was in office, there's even less chance now he has a decent majority in both houses.
Even if it could I'm conflicted on it being a feasible option 🙂
What does a non US peace plan look like?
Agent Orange (I think we can call him that now) has also suspended US cyber operations regarding Russia. We really are through the looking glass now :/
What next? Zelenskyyyyy resigns, replaced by a poodle who goes to Washington, minerals handed over, Russian mining firms move in, champagne and caviar in Moscow and Mar a Lago ??
What next? Zelenskyyyyy resigns, replaced by a poodle who goes to Washington, minerals handed over, Russian mining firms move in, champagne and caviar in Moscow and Mar a Lago ??
At any other time that would sound ridiculously unlikely. These days? Not so much ☹️
Agent Orange (I think we can call him that now)
We can go with his previous criminal case identifier of "Individual 1" or his actual russian asset name "Krasnov".
There willll be a link in the DT thread so Ill not put it here, though the two are intertwining now.
Russia can’t destroy Ukraine, the USA can.
I said a few weeks back that Ukraine could win this unless Agent Orange hands it to Russia on a plate.
Is there enough guns and ammo within the EU to make a significant impact without the US.?
Do a deal with Zalensky in which EU memeber states go all in and provide everything thats available this year.
Then as a recripical deal , agree on mineral agency rights for the rare earth metals that both Putin and Trump want. Thus getting financial recompense for the military hardware and shafting the orange baboon.
If Russia really is down to doing infantry assults in a Yugo 4x4 and using donkeys to bring in ammo to the front lines , plus relying on the NK powerhouse to provide men and materials then a load of modern western hardware would surely tip the balance
The real worry is Agent Orange suspending sanctions. That could be a massive blow.
a load of modern western hardware would surely tip the balance
Leopards, ATACMS, Abrams, F16. How many times can this be repeated?
It's worse than anyone expected. Trump isn't even trying to disguise who's side in the Russia Vs Ukraine war he is on.
There is no doubt that Europe are on their own and needs to spend huge sums on military defence away from the USA.
Standby for nuclear proliferation across Europe, especially in the east and Scandinavia. Some of Putin's neighbours will see this as their only option to deter future Russian land grabs.
Leopards, ATACMS, Abrams, F16. How many times can this be repeated?
those are several generations old
(and arguably we sent them far too late)
Standby for nuclear proliferation across Europe
The Middle East and Asia too. Iran is facing a choice of making a sprint for the bomb, or losing its influence in the region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc. will want to follow. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan depend on the U.S. for security. They are all capable of developing nuclear weapons fairly quickly. Other countries like Vietnam and the Philippines have territorial disputes with China. If the region goes nuclear, they will have to consider following.
All cause of the price of eggs, eh.
Standby for nuclear proliferation across Europe
I'm not sure that's very feasible. France is the only EU country with an independent nuclear capability and that took decades to develop. Even the UK doesn't have a truly independent capability as our nukes are highly dependent and integrated with US technology and US subsidies/funding. Even if the EU has the political will to create its own nuclear umbrella I doubt many EU citizens will be willing to swallow the financial sacrifice of building it.
I had an idea that Trump might shake things up but taking a sledgehammer to the post war consensus and backing Russia to this extent i'm not sure many predicted. I agree about the nuclear proliferation and i think it could happen quicker for some countries than we think, given their advanced engineering. And point the missiles both ways.
I cant see the american/putin love in lasting that long, Americans have been told that the reds are the enemy for generations and thats not going to be undone in a couple of months. Trump is clearly compromised (in someway or another) and the GOP is terrified of getting on the wrong side of him so he goes pretty much unchallenged. Thats not going to last, the second they sense the tide starting to turn on the orange ball bag they'll gut him, it might take until the mid terms but it'll happen
i think it could happen quicker for some countries than we think, given their advanced engineering.
No one questions the engineering ability. It's the political will and ability of EU populations to swallow the financial and other sacrifices it will require. At a time when the world should be pouring all it's resources into mitigating and delaying climate change, instead it'll be focusing the effort and resources on building weapons of mass destruction. I doubt many voters in the EU will be willing to swallow that.
I'm not sure that's very feasible. France is the only EU country with an independent nuclear capability and that took decades to develop.
In the 1950s, it's now a very mature and well understood technology. It's been assessed that Sweden and Germany could develop a weapon in months. Sweden actually had a clandestine Nuclear program at one time. Poland wouldn't be too far behind if they were of a mind. As regards political will or public opinion, it's probably a lot more hawkish in countries like Poland. It spends more on Defence than any other European nation and has plenty of historic reasons to fear Russia. I agree it would be a disaster for all sorts of reasons, just pointing out that the risk of it is now massively increased.
It's the political will and ability of EU populations to swallow the financial and other sacrifices it will require.
Over the last couple of weeks the US has just told every eastern European ally who've in the past they've persuaded not to pursue nuclear weapons that not only that the USA isn't coming to their aid, but is in fact going to actively support the one country that might actually invade them. I think the folks in those countries are going to be quite supportive of any effort to begin a nuclear programme.
Should Zelensky stand down? Trump is clearly driven by personality, grudges and relationships. Should Zelensky step aside in the hope that a successor could establish a better relationship with Trump, for the good of Ukraine?
There's lots of opportunity for joint development - reducing cost and risk. I'm sure the French would be happy to sell their expertise too.
I wonder how far/quickly this would have to go before a significant proportion of the US started to wonder why their previous allies were turning their backs on them - or would it just be spun as anti-US rather than anti-Trump?
Should Zelensky stand down?
Does he have a choice? If he sticks around Ukraine is toast, victim of Trump's infantile revenge kick. He has his faults but I think Z is bigger than that, and may sacrifice himself for the greater good. Whatever happens he will be seen as a hero.
Should Zelensky stand down?
Does he have a choice? If he sticks around Ukraine is toast, victim of Trump's infantile revenge kick. He has his faults but I think Z is bigger than that, and may sacrifice himself for the greater good. Whatever happens he will be seen as a hero.
I think he does have a choice at the moment. He has already said he would ultimately stand down for the sake of a fair peace. But that's not what is being offered at the moment. He's being asked to resign because he was perceived to have insulted the great tangerine tyrant. He can't resign in advance of a deal that promises nothing but some exploitation from the US, it wouldn't be self-sacrifice (which again, i've no doubt he would do in the right circumstances), it would be pointless capitulation. Ukraine is in a difficult position even with the US proposal, because they aren't offering a realistic peace.
France is the only EU country with an independent nuclear capability and that took decades to develop.
My understanding is that there are two major technologies you need to master to build nuclear weapons. First, you need to be able to produce fissile material - either enriched uranium or plutonium. I think that technology is widely understood across Europe. Second, you need to be able to build explosive lenses to compress the pit of the weapon and start the chain reaction. In the 1940s, that was a major accomplishment, it took months and months to crunch the numbers to do that. With the off-the-shelf computing power available now, not such a challenge. Obviously, it will still require some decently smart people to put it all together, but the basic concepts are understood and don't have to be invented from scratch.
Of course, after that, the bombs have to be developed into an operational weapon that can be stored for years and activated in seconds, plus a delivery system has to be developed, but it wouldn't take decades to have operational weapons.
I think nuclear capability would be down the priority, as building baseline military capability will be and is the priority. In the shorter term there can be a re-jig of nuclear protection, as proposed by Macron, that could see a more euro-focussed nuclear umbrella.
I think the worrying thing for nato members, is that the US has weakened nato just purely because of his unpredictability. This must have created a break in trust with other members who cannot now fully rely on the US to respond in the way it needs to. This is a really significant strategic blow, as it disrupts and damages the deterrence of nato in Russia's favour, just through the words and equivocations of team trump.
Delivery of a nuke could be quite simple. Launch 1000 drones a 100 of which are nuclear armed. Ukraine has shown how useless the Russian air defences are.
Trump and Putin are making the world a much more dangerous place, not Zelenskyy.
I cant see the american/putin love in lasting that long,
Eventually everyone gets Trumped, and that will include JD Couch, musk, Rubio... Putin probably has a longer run than them TBF
Ha, never trust a Trump
I see very little in the press about China's stance on all the latest shenanigans, does anyone have some worthwhile links to have a read off?
I'm honestly starting to think that China is the only one who can step in and sort out this mess, its like a bunch of squabbling school kids at the moment
Should Zelensky step aside in the hope that a successor could establish a better relationship with Trump, for the good of Ukraine?
I don't think Trump's original grudge is with Zelensky personally - Trump manufactured the row because he wants to ditch Ukraine, so he'll do the same to a successor. My understanding is that Zelensky's reputation among his citizens has (on balance) been enhanced by his response to Trump.
For China, Russia and the USA talking territory has to be a win. They aren’t hiding their desire to do the same. Only problem is that some of the places China wants to take is also claimed by Russia. Unlike Taiwan, which is looking more and more at risk.
I don't think Trump's original grudge is with Zelensky personally
trump is likely still upset that Zelensky wouldn't fabricate any evidence of bidens involvement with corruption in Ukraine in 2020, not to mention the point vance raised about Zelensky visiting a US ammo factory during the last election campaign
Just watched Newsnight and the Canadian foreign minister was genuinely concerned by US belligerence and said Canadians no longer found it funny describing their country as the 51 state an d referring to Trudeau as a governor.
Hope Trump's not got similar ideas that Putin had.
not to mention the point vance raised about Zelensky visiting a US ammo factory during the last election campaign
Trump probably thinks he walked round with a daffodil spy camera to get manufacturing secrets, and on the tour he filled up his pockets with artillery shells and rockets that he didn't pay for.
Of course Zelensky would visit an ammo factory in the country providing him with the stuff to support the government that was arranging the assistance. He'd have done it if Trump had been president as well.
The Canada thing has gone quiet on this side of tbe Atlantic. Will he turn his fire that way if Ukraine gets "resolved"?
So JD Pants pissed on the graves of British (and others) soldiers yesterday and suggested that American mining contractors would be a more effective security guarantee that 20,000 soldiers from some random European nation. Despicable just doesn’t seem to cover it anymore!
Should Zelensky stand down? Trump is clearly driven by personality, grudges and relationships. Should Zelensky step aside in the hope that a successor could establish a better relationship with Trump, for the good of Ukraine?
I think that Ukraine would be poorer without President Zelensky who's done a pretty good job under the circumstances.
What President Trump fails to understand is that there's a democracy behind most states and Zelensky is doing what he feels is right for the electorate and as such he's a strong leader.
Zelensky hasn't bowed to Russian pressure and he won't bow to the US and resign. Why? Because Trump v1.0 repeatedly shown himself to be someone who cannot be trusted, e.g. Trump, via Speaker Mike Johnson, obstructed US weapon supplies to Ukraine for several months in late 2023/2024, costing lives in Ukraine and so far this term hasn't sent a single thing to Ukraine while stopping USAID. He's already started to resupply Israel with weapons during this term, while Israel and Egypt were already exempted from USAID cuts.
If he needed confirmation on Trump v2.0 he got that on the 28th and again on the 3rd with the threat to stop weapons supplies.That was a massive business faux pas because although Trump can stop Joe Biden's off the shelf drawdowns, he shouldn't interfere in signed business contracts between Ukraine and US manufacturers, which is where the longer-term supplies are sourced. That's one reason now for international mistrust of US manufacturers
So JD Pants pissed on the graves of British (and others) soldiers yesterday and suggested that American mining contractors would be a more effective security guarantee that 20,000 soldiers from some random European nation.
I find the whole idea of American miners being an effective security guarantee bizarre really, what civilian would agree to go to a warzone as a human shield when their president is cosying up to the aggressor?
I suspect if they were there we would see attacks on these mines like we have seen on the nuclear installations at Zaporizhzhia and Chernobyl that Russia will say was Ukraine and vice versa. It seems clear who Trump would side with.