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, to stop the Putin having another pop in future
Im not sure theres anything that can be done to stop that
As long as Russia keeps getting Troops from NK I cant see how Ukraine will stop the advance in the east, Trumps advisors have been telling Zelensky to drop the conscription age to 18, something hes been resisting for a while.
Russia's economy is taking a battering- inflation at 11%, interest rates at >20%! and the hits on teh russian oil industry from actams storm shadow etc have been relentless, another large depot hit yesterday and sanctions on the shadow fleet of oil tankers that have dodged the emargos so far could make things harder economically
Kids at junior school are discussing this sort of thing in a politer manner than some on here!
Fair comment, apologies for my contribution to any impoliteness.
I really don’t think
I figured that with that hot take. If there's a way to out yourself as having zero understanding, that's the way.
You could have simply asked a question and got some replies that would have given you some information to form an opinion based on reality.
Maybe you should try that next time?
I've just read the Guardian Article and it really flies in the face of some of other stuff I have read over the last few months. In fact it seems guilty of some of the Russian influence and Media hype that people such as Philip oBrian often cite. In fact his latest update directly counters some of the Guardian claims and does so with 'before and after maps' rather than a single map with dubious detail and little substance to back it up. It think the two articles are worth reading back to back to see just how a single viewpoint can be a dangerous thing.
I don't see a Russian collapse as imminent, but I continue to be impressed with the Ukrainian resolve. I very bleakly thought this war would be over in weeks and they would be steamrollered. I don't pray, but I do think about their plight often and hope things get better for them as soon as possible.
I agree. Although I am sadly doubtful that Ukraine will reverse their territorial losses significantly, they have extracted a huge price from Russia for them. I am full of admiration for their courage and determination in the face of such an onslaught. Although by sheer weight of numbers, Russia will likely keep a few obliterated villages and fields, their capacity to do it again any time soon has been massively denigrated by Ukraine. The Baltics, Poland and the whole of Europe owe them a massive debt.
Actual Russian inflation is more like 25/30% not the Russian gov figure.
soviet stckpliles of armour are running very low
Russia is using NK troops
Gasprom is on the verge of bankruptcy
interest rates at 21%
1500+ casualties a day
troops going into battle in civilian vans, or electric scooters,
we don’t know how much more of this Russia can take,
all of this to capture some fields and a couple of towns in the past year.
Yes the imminent demise of Russia may be exaggerated, or maybe not, however the metrics are going in the wrong direction for Russia.
if the west had committed with more aid early on, this would all probably be over by now.
we don’t know how much more of this Russia can take,
A heck of a lot more than most of us in the West can understand. We've not endured what they have for the length of time they have. It's seemingly part of the psyche of being Russian, almost a sense of pride about it.
has been massively denigrated by Ukraine.
Degraded not denigrated. Oops.
They will have to concede territory in any negotiations, I just hope they can receive a cast iron security guarantee from NATO, the European nations or whoever, to stop Putin having another pop in future
I don't think that conceding Ukraine's territory is in anyone's interests, except those of Russia and its allies. Even the arms industry will be kept very busy rebuilding stocks and modernising defence infrastructure within Europe and NATO.
I agree that Ukraine can't win militarily, but demonstrably neither can Russia in an area comprising only 20% of Ukraine; it's a question of either whose resolve fails first or who fails to keep their people behind them.
Russia has an history of ignoring peace agreements; in 10 years time a rebuilt Russia will be after another piece of Europe, which is the bigger picture here, weakening the EU.
Russia is currently influencing Moldova's 2025 Parliamentary Elections by cutting off gas and consequently some power generation. The Russian-aligned administration in Transnistria has refused offers of help from Moldova (and the EU), which has arranged alternative supplies of energy at market rates.
The drip-drip land grab doesn't stop and concessions only encourage it
The other piece I see very little discussed is how much ukraine is hurting and whether they are close to collapsing. They have taken an absolute battering and somehow are still going. Yes I get the resolve of defending family and home, but if you run out of troops / kit / food / energy resolve won't cut it.
Also I watch to see what move putin will pull next - it seems Russia has no interest in a negotiated peace at this time unless the whole of ukraine is ceeded. I don't think anyone foresaw NK troops on the battlefield, and I'm quite surprised it hasn't lead to more sabre rattling / sanctions / whatever against NK to discourage them from sending more.
Reports about Iranian support was very much front and centre of the press for a while, thats diminished to, I presume thats because Iran now has other things to worry about closer to home
And China?
Trump now doesn't seem likely to pull US support immediately
I can't see either side collapsing any time soon unless something game changing happens - it will just be a continued slow grinding advance by Russia taking ukrainian territory at great cost.
The drip-drip land grab doesn’t stop and concessions only encourage it
Sadly I think this is the case. No matter how this ends, Russia has an intention to take more land and more countries. This will outlast Putin, and will be here in generations.
The only future with Russia is a cold war 2, where we freeze them out, arm and prepare ourselves, and support those who have the misfortune to share a border with them.
At the same time Russia will meddle with anything they think 'gains' them something, even if the something is pride or disruption of others. They will carry on terrorising airlines, continue to damage whatever undersea services they can, influence politics anywhere they can...
I don’t think that conceding Ukraine’s territory is in anyone’s interests, except those of Russia and its allies.
I agree, but realistically it's still going to happen. There can't be anyone, including Zelenskyy and his cabinet I imagine, who think this war ends with Ukraine's 2022 borders being restored. Much less it's 2014 borders. I wish it wasn't so, but I think that will be the reality. Quite what Russia will do with a few dozen obliterated villages and contaminated agricultural land populated by people seething with hatred for them is another matter.
Quite what Russia will do with a few dozen obliterated villages and contaminated agricultural land populated by people seething with hatred for them is another matter.
There would be a strong case for allowing residents to choose to move out of such areas and into Ukrainian territory, surely?
There would be a strong case for allowing residents to choose to move out of such areas and into Ukrainian territory, surely?
Considering Russia's terrible demographics, I suspect they won't be hugely willing to let the people go that easily. I think we're also underestimating human stubbornness, anyone who's still there after all this is going to be pretty damn determined to stay put.
Russia is currently influencing Moldova’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections by cutting off gas and consequently some power generation.
Is that impacting Moldova as a whole or just Transnistria?
This popped up today from Starmers visit.
Will outlast Putin and probably the next 2 incumbents.
World Economic Forum kicks of Jan 20th in Davos. Zelensky attending, Trump wordsalading in electronically. I cant find out who from russia will attend but the programme looks interesting.
Is that impacting Moldova as a whole or just Transnistria?
Both although Transnistria worst but then they aint fussed about what their people think so it balances out.
The sole power plant in Moldova is in Transnistria and is gas powered. So shutting that down limits electricity supply. Moldova has some capability to bring in electricity from elsewhere but its more expensive and I dont think meets the full demand.
China is enforcing the new shadow fleet sanctions.The last thing China wants is secondary sanctions with its economy in a frail state.
Is that impacting Moldova as a whole or just Transnistria?
What dissonance said, with a few additions about the political system:
Moldovan citizens living in Transnistria are eligible to vote in Moldova's Parliamentary Election, but voters have to travel because authorities in Transnistria won't host Moldovan voting stations.
Transnistria and Moldova don't agree on numbers of eligible voters, but it's somewhere in the hundreds of thousands and worth influencing when you consider that the Presidential Election was only very narrowly won in October by the pro-EU Maia Sandu with 180k votes between winner and loser.
Moldova, like any country, also has a spectrum of voter loyalties that can be swayed. Citizens are also eligible to vote from other countries and by post, but voter numbers are fewer.
The Moldovan Presidential Elections were full of allegations of bribery, sabotage, etc from both Russia and Moldova, e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23kdjxxx1jo , while Russia's Foreign Ministry representative, Maria Zakharova, talked of "blatant interference" in the election.
slowoldman, there's an article here with useful detail on how power is being used... https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2025/01/moldovas-gas-crisis-is-europes-headache?lang=en
And the power station is owned by Gasprom, (majority stake) - so there’s that.
Now that Biden has shuffled off the stage some interesting reports are coming out, eg that the US and our own lovable Boris Johnson discouraged Ukraine from reaching peace with Russia in 2022
See also this article:
“Leading up to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was launched in June, the Discord leaks and media reports revealed that the US did not believe Ukraine could regain much territory from Russia. But the Biden administration pushed for the assault anyway, as it rejected the idea of a pause in fighting.“
Yup hardly new and its not surprising that the West (& Ukraine) thought that things like removing all western air defenses from ukraine while there were no conditions at all on what Russia could have at the border.... was a very bad idea
Is that being regurgitated as new information?
(also a great example why twitter is a poor source of reliable information or opinion)
I was reading some stuff about Trumps latest speech on ukraine- anyone understand what the last bit is? ukraines not done 'enough?' does he mean lower the conscription age? And if it is easy as a phone call teling Putin to stop?!
Wilkie says Trump will phone Russian President Vladimir Putin and tell him to stop the war
He adds that Trump will tell Ukraine's president Zelensky that he hasn’t done enough "by not calling to the colours the largest segment of your population", continuing that Zelenskyy has left out "males in the population who provide the muscle and the strength".
Wilkie says Trump will phone Russian President Vladimir Putin and tell him to stop the war
Well he said he would stop the war in 24 hours. Has he picked up the phone yet?
Not new information, but surfacing again - call it "regurgitated" if you like.
https://time.com/7207661/bidens-ukraine-win-zelensky-loss/
(also a great example why twitter is a poor source of reliable information or opinion)
Eh?
See also this article:
All put into perspective...
"our own lovable Boris Johnson discouraged Ukraine from reaching peace with Russia in 2022" was discredited at the time. He has an appalling eye for wallpaper, but his eye for a poor peace deal is pretty good.
Caitlin Johnstone writes for RT, part of ANO TV Novosti, a Russian state media company that Ofcom decided wasn't "fit and proper to hold a UK broadcast licence" ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60791734 )
There's a piece by Dan Hanrahan, A Closer Look at the Prose of Caitlin Johnstone, which does what it says on the tin https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/03/11/a-closer-look-at-the-prose-of-caitlin-johnstone/
And if it is easy as a phone call teling Putin to stop?!
President Trump's advisors accepted a week ago that "they were looking at a timeline of months to resolve the conflict, describing the Day One promises as a combination of campaign bluster and a lack of appreciation of the intractability of the conflict" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-advisers-concede-ukraine-peace-deal-is-months-away-2025-01-15/
He's declined to comment further until he's spoken to President Putin
30s of reading that tosh and it was very clear who the paymaster was. Utter garbage.
Hmmm, interesting...
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would likely impose sanctions on Russia if its president, Vladimir Putin, refuses to negotiate about ending the war in Ukraine.
And
Trump said his administration was also looking at the issue of sending weapons to Ukraine, adding his view that the European Union should be doing more to support Ukraine.
And
Trump said he had pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping in a call to intervene to stop the Ukraine war.
"He's not done very much on that. He's got a lot of ... power, like we have a lot of power. I said, 'You ought to get it settled.' We did discuss it."
Chancellor Scholtz is at last coming under pressure over his inaction on certain aspects of defence, NATO and the war in Ukraine.
I get that it is possibly just election bluster, but his rivals for February's Bundestag elections have been making Ukraine a campaign issue. Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv in 2022, which was before Scholtz visited. In December Merz said, "We'll stop making Ukraine fight one-handed, German opposition leader tells Zelenskiy" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-opposition-chief-visits-ukraine-war-dominates-election-campaign-2024-12-09/
Last week "German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock indirectly criticised Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his reluctance to approve a further 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in additional military aid for Ukraine." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-foreign-minister-criticises-scholz-blocking-more-ukraine-aid-report-says-2025-01-17/
The elections have been pulled forward from September due to the governing coalition falling apart; we'll see what Scholtz comes back with. Taurus, maybe?
Drip, drip, drip. The second cold war is well underway - at least from one side.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjv7qgpw28o
Slight diversion since teh German elections are mentioned here.
Lots of Afd posters appearing for the elections. Driving home, dear Alice seems to have gained a black moustache on a lot of them with a subtle "Nazis raus" slogan added. Afd + Elon x Nazi salutes = (hopefully) backlash. Afd being sympathetic to Russia.
I'm glad you're seeing vandalised AfD posters, @rickmeister.... In Munich City they have also been taking a battering, but once around the outskirts of town they're seemingly everywhere.
Day 3 of the Trump Presidency, who claimed it was a Day 1 'end it in 24hours' action and 'simple' to end the war. R4 discussing that he has basically issued an ultimatum of more sanctions. And so far sanctions have been already explore the fullest, and Putin does not react to ultimatums in the way Trump expects.....
he has basically issued an ultimatum of more sanctions
I thought he threatened tariffs on Russian imports to the U.S. That must have Putin quaking in his boots.
Importantly, he isn't rolling over on Ukraine and he recognises that he needs to get Russia to the table (carrot)
Now keep the weapons flowing (stick); the last announcement was 9th January https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4025039/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
I already thought Russia had tough sanctions - what more can be done, other than I suppose put pressure on those that are still trading with Russia. Maybe thats the China angle, US will put heavy trade tarrifs on China unless China stops supporting Russia? or something like that?
Day 4 of "I'll sort it in 24hours". Who knows maybe we will all be eating our words in a few months....?!
Afd being sympathetic to Russia.
I had assumed that was where their loyalties might lie. I'd hope it would be an electoral stick to beat them with.
As long as there is a willing market for Russian oil and other resources they can keep fighting. Sanctions on countries helping indirectly in that way would have been a strong move, but a couple of years too late.
Day 3 of the Trump Presidency, who claimed it was a Day 1 ‘end it in 24hours’ action and ‘simple’ to end the war.
One of his aides said the comments were no more than 'Campaign Bluster'.
Otherwise known as 'lies'.
Otherwise known as ‘lies’.
Or "Fake News" perhaps?