Splitting to country doesn’t get rid of the “nazis” running Ukraine. Not that he’s beyond just ignoring that line
"Are you for real…? You’d actually suggest openly negotiating with a terrorist to buy a few years of “peace” for very significant cultural, economic and political cost?!?! 🤯"
Crimea?
Dombas?
Luhansk?
Putin has been eating into Ukraine in bite sized chunks its just that this time he's tried to swallow it whole.
You may find what Chewkw is suggesting highly enrertaining (and I usually do) but it's far from the daftest thing said on this thread.
I think I need to check out of this thread for tonight, although no doubt I’ll keep checking the news in another sleepless night.
Let’s hope it all calms down a bit soon. Stay safe people.
You may find what Chewkw is suggesting highly enrertaining (and I usually do) but it’s far from the daftest thing said on this thread.
Well, just before Russia invaded Ukraine the press/news/media was saying how bad it is for Russia to invade etc, then I said wait for few days. Well didn't even last for few days when Russia started sending in their tanks.
Now, the question is do you push Putin into the corner and topple him from outside (NATO/EU)? Bear in mind Putin has gambled but do NATO/EU wish to gamble too?
Looks like chewkw’s getting his semi on about strongmen. Nothing new to see here. All hail the killfile.
NATO/EU is confronting Putin the strongman and Putin is not even hiding the fact he wants to be seen as a strongman.
Looks like chewkw’s getting his semi on about strongmen. Nothing new to see here. All hail the killfile.
Play the ball and not the man. He's outlining options, you don't have to like them.
For a change. Chewie makes some sense. Unless Putin succeeds in Ukraine, you have to imagine how he is going to accept defeat/partial failure. Most people on here seem to assume that he will be toppled. However, we have absolutely no idea how firm his grip on power really is, and we have no idea how he might react if he was really under threat either internally or externally. It isn’t the most ridiculous idea to think of ways he can back down without losing face. After all, he still has that Big Red Button. He may be bluffing, but the price of misreading his intentions are too catastrophic to contemplate.
A few days ago I picked up a book called The Devil's Alternative by Frederick Forsyth. One of his early ones. Knew nothing about it but had enjoyed Day of the Jackal and Dogs of War back in the day.
Turns out it's set in early 80s and is about US and Soviets facing off, with a healthy dollop of Ukrainian freedom fighters stirring the pot by offing the head of the KGB (amongst other things)!
Apologies for the spoiler, though there's lots more going on.
Reality is sometimes stranger than fiction..
He knows that he may not get his way but at least you leave him room to save face
No, you don't. You just have to isolate Russia internationally, which has already happened, and make it clear to Russians that Putin has to go and that Ukraine's pre-2014 borders have to be respected before sanctions are lifted. Putin isn't really afraid of NATO, he's afraid of his own people. If the Ukraine war is seen as a failure and the Russian economy collapses, they will overthrow him.
Unless Putin succeeds in Ukraine, you have to imagine how he is going to accept defeat/partial failure. Most people on here seem to assume that he will be toppled. However, we have absolutely no idea how firm his grip on power really is, and we have no idea how he might react if he was really under threat either internally or externally. It isn’t the most ridiculous idea to think of ways he can back down without losing face. After all, he still has that Big Red Button. He may be bluffing, but the price of misreading his intentions are too catastrophic to contemplate
A really valid point. As I understand it a key part of solving the Cuban missile crisis was finding a way to let Krushchev back down without losing (too much) face.
Given the reports of a heavily armed, three mile column of RF troops approaching Kyiv (interesting how virtually nobody is now using Kiev), I suspect he's still hell bent on enforcing his will, by pretty much any means possible..
Unless Putin succeeds in Ukraine, you have to imagine how he is going to accept defeat/partial failure.
Even entering a negotiation with Putin he knows he is defeated (privately) albeit in public he might be seen as hero of Russia. Leave him some room to save face.
No, you don’t. You just have to isolate Russia internationally, which has already happened, and make it clear to Russians that Putin has to go and that Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders have to be respected before sanctions are lifted. Putin isn’t really afraid of NATO, he’s afraid of his own people. If the Ukraine war is seen as a failure and the Russian economy collapses, they will overthrow him.
If Ukraine war is a failure and Russian economy collapses where Putin will lose all, prosecuted etc, what move do you think he will make? To let the world walk all over him or to throw his last dice?
It's a valid point. Putin can't win but can't be seen to lose. How to square that circle is probably occupying a lot of minds at the moment.
How would the Russian people overthrow Putin?
It’s a valid point. Putin can’t win but can’t be seen to lose. How to square that circle is probably occupying a lot of minds at the moment.
Unlike other authoritarian states Putin is seen as the "big brother" amongst them all.
How would the Russian people overthrow Putin?
No need. Just wait for him to retire. Society just have to change/evolve slowly.
"Looks like chewkw’s getting his semi on about strongmen. Nothing new to see here."
Whilst the first part of that sentence may be true, the second isn't. If chewkw's semi pointed him in the direction of an invasion then it happened to be right didn't it. The war didn't start because Chewkw got exited, it started because Putin is a c*** and maybe Chewkw, with his interest in strongmen, recognised this better than some.
So insulting him won't change the fact that he called this one better than you did.
Just because you didn't see something coming doesn't mean there's nothing to see.
Don't buy your energy from that psycopathic murderer that invades other countries... Buy it from er.....oh hang on
Many would say the same about CNN.
I've been watching cycling and read that as GCN.
Just wait for him to retire
I doubt he has retirement in mind.
That could go some way to offsetting our (Europe's, nor necessarily the UK's) dependace on Russian gas.
I have to admire their timing, did they just stumble across them this afternoon?
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Seems an ideal opportunity to switch away from buying gas from a country which uses the money to wage war in a much smaller neighbour to... ah.
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[Edit] It would appear gwaelod can type faster than me!
Honestly I'm quite enjoying Chewkw's Asian perspective. He has a brain, and does post good serious stuff sometimes. It makes a change from the STW groupthink.
I doubt he has retirement in mind.
He is 69 year old. I doubt he will live forever.
I didn't agree with his last post but it is another perspective and something to think about.
Who knows how this will play out, that is an option.
TBF all most of us are doing is looking at the news and speculating, and that isn't a ridiculous scenario to speculate about, however much we might dislike it.
Even entering a negotiation with Putin he knows he is defeated (privately) albeit in public he might be seen as hero of Russia. Leave him some room to save face.
You think that given he is a proven genocidal maniac, 150mn Russians that have been systemically hoodwinked would think twice about putting him up against a wall and shooting him once they found out the extent he had kept the wool over their eyes...? Some people have short memories! Putin doesn't believe in democracy, he acts far more like a Tsar ruling by divine right than any "chosen" leader (democratically or otherwise) that I have known. The Russian Revolution was just 105 short years ago, and the Royal family weren't given a paticularly fair or exhaustive trial! 🤷🏻♂️
This is ignoring the fact that he is now the worlds most wanted man, amongst a population of nearly 8 Billion people...
You think his emotions come into this?!?! 😂
Forget the 8 Bn world population, or 150mn Russians though... There's a few dozen Oligarchs that effectively barely have a pot to piss in right now as a result of EU sanctions... Individually, not one of these men would risk upsetting Putin... As a group...? You better believe that it doesn't matter how "all powerful" he is, they'll get medieval on his ass just out of principle! Money talks... Imagine being worth many Billions of dollars for several decades, then one day you're worth nothing. But you have the opportunity to remove the person that has caused this problem, will be hailed as an international hero for doing so, and blind eyes will be turned as to your financial interests for certain given what you can achieve just by taking this one person out...
Putin has had a 20 odd year stranglehold on the Russian elites, but nobody is impervious to the menace of other peoples greed.
No need. Just wait for him to retire. Society just have to change/evolve slowly.
People who start world wars don't get afforded the dignity of retirement! 🤭
Besides... If the rumours coming in are true that he is about to use Thermobaric weapons on Kyiv, NATO will be involved by the end of the first week of battle. In 4 days this has gone from "we sympathise with Ukraine, but this is their war" to full blown military support from the EU/NATO/UN in all but manpower. The way Putin is carrying on right now, this will be all over one way or the other within days... Even just the promise of turning Swift back on and reinstating the oligarchs financial interests could result in the easiest "wanted: dead or alive" man hunt in political history!
Don't think of Kruschev being allowed to retire ignominiously... Think of Ceacescu or Tsar Nicholas 2 being handed over to mobs baying for instant blood, or Hitler taking his own life in his hands rather than allowing himself to fall to the same fate.
How would the Russian people overthrow Putin?
His leadership requires the support of the security services, military, bureaucracies, etc. They support him because sticking with the regime is the better path for them. When his regime no longer offers the better path, support crumbles and people start looking around to see how many other people feel the same way. The military leaders aren't stupid, they know that any use of nuclear weapons would bring utter catastrophe upon Russia. Putting the nuclear forces on alert is a sign of utter desperation, not a sign of strength.
I know some find Chewkw's scenario absurd but it did remind me of Korea, so in that sense he's proposing a scenario that does have some historical precedence, its not an idea plucked out of thin air.
I know some find Chewkw’s scenario absurd but it did remind me of Korea
North Korea had the support of the Soviet Union and China. Russia has alienated everyone, even China is abandoning them. Russia sees itself as a global superpower, the only way to be taken seriously again will be to get rid of Putin. As long as he's still there, Russia will be a pariah.
Ruble down 20% in pre-market training. Wonder what rock bottom will look like?
Another one here who's finding it hard to sleep so reading here when it's not particularly healthy.
What's scarier is I read Chewkw's post and before I clocked who wrote it I was generally agreeing with it, fits in with my domino fear. His thoughts do have some base on reality here, that thought in itself is scary enough! (no offence...)
As for how Putin can be removed from power? I fear he has things so well tied up, he has had decades to do so after all, that anything short of an assassination attempt is an outside chance at best. I agree the nuclear forces on alert thing is an act of desperation rather than a key play but now he's played that card the reality is that he's fully capable of going down that route and there's no obvious way to stop him. Hopefully within the Russian machine there are plans afoot to remove him somehow but that is a very risky option to rely on for us. The world's genuinely looking down the barrel of the gun, the question is who has control of the trigger.
The Russian Revolution was just 105 short years ago
Good point. If you're old now, your grandparents could have been there.
Another one here who’s finding it hard to sleep so reading here when it’s not particularly healthy.
I've had a late coffee and I'm staying up because I have work to do for a deadline tomorrow. I haven't started yet.
The world’s genuinely looking down the barrel of the gun, the question is who has control of the trigger.
A better way to look at the whole nuke scenario is that Putin is holding a gun to himself, his generals and supporting oligarchs, their families and their dog. Oh, let's not forget, the whole Russian population too... and the world.
It's an empty threat.
https://twitter.com/UHmallorca/status/1498040498359095296?t=A5tUSUESlfWNkKOZMBkUWw&s=19
Ukrainian sailor arrested for partially sinking his Russian boss's luxury yacht in Port Adriano
The owner of the boat is a tycoon responsible for manufacturing weapons for Putin's troops.
North Korea had the support of the Soviet Union and China. Russia has alienated everyone, even China is abandoning them.
No, China CCP has not abandon Russia that I am sure. Although sources say that some senior CCP members do not like/oppose Russia (Russia took a big chunk of their territory and they hate being taken for a ride), they would prefer Russia over any US alliance at their door step.
Russia sees itself as a global superpower, the only way to be taken seriously again will be to get rid of Putin. As long as he’s still there, Russia will be a pariah.
If they have to get rid of their leader to become superpower because the world say so, what kid of superpower is that? Superpower cannot be told or influenced.
If Putin starts to use Katyusha rocket then he is not going to press the button. He might flatten many cities though. I am just a bit surprised that he starts to play his trump card this early. Something is not right. That's why I said he miscalculated.
Basically, the problem is that Putin is not the strategic genius many people assume. He's desperate and he has a weak hand. Invading Ukraine was so stupid that even as he was massing the invasion force on the borders and the U.S. was exposing his war plans, people still kept thinking it was just a bluff because it was such an idiotically stupid plan. He went into the war assuming it would be an easy victory and he would be the conquering hero who reasserted Russia's global superpower status. There was absolutely no thought given to what he would do if Ukraine didn't capitulate within a few days. Putin left himself no off-ramp, it was always victory or bust for him.
https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1497953000488275970
If they have to get rid of their leader to become superpower because the world say so, what kid of superpower is that? Superpower cannot be told or influenced.
They won't be a superpower, but they will be taken seriously if they ditch Putin and start behaving sensibly. They have a seat at the U.N. Security Council and thousands of nuclear bombs, plus huge oil and mineral reserves. They will still be a major player when they rejoin the global economy.
Invading Ukraine was so stupid that even as he was massing the invasion force on the borders and the U.S. was exposing his war plans, people still kept thinking it was just a bluff because it was such an idiotically stupid plan
Yes, because he miscalculated thinking he could just walk in to change regime (probably convinced by his groupthink intel that many people support him - misinformation). Whoever fed him the information better run ... now.
I know it hasn't really gone as well as expected for Putin, assuming he thought it would done and dusted in 48hrs and a puppet government in place already, but I think it's still too early to claim it a defeat for him, its only been a few days and some big cities are now surrounded. Let's not count our chickens.
Assad was looking beaten at one stage but has held on by not giving up and getting nastier and nastier (and having Russian help of course, but Putin has not committed everything Russia has to this fight yet...)
It could get worse, even just in a conventional-only war.
.
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Talking of puppet governments, there was a Russian MP on the BBC World Service yesterday who kept talking of a 'puppy state' I would really like to see that!
If they have to get rid of their leader to become superpower because the world say so, what kid of superpower is that? Superpower cannot be told or influenced.
Of course they can! China are being heavily influenced by the rest of the world right now FFS! 🤭
The way you talk is as if people readily forgive dictatorial indiscretions as long as everything is put right in the end... 🤷🏻♂️
We live in a world of consequences. Some may be more impervious to those consequences than others, and granted Putin is the most teflon coated individual that many of us have experienced in our lifetimes. But doesn't mean he won't have to face up to the indiscretions from the last few days, even if nothing else!
There's 3 ways out of this for Putin if this escalates any further... 1. Military Trial @ The Hague resulting in imprisonment for war crimes. 2. A military coup within the Russian government/kleptocracy resulting in imprisonment for crimes against the state (if he's lucky) or more likely his assasination. 3. He takes his own life...
It’s an empty threat.
Too much riding on the outcome to easily dismiss this as a bit of sabre rattling, and pushing Russia deep into a corner certainly isnt going to help the situation or the outcome.
Basically, the problem is that Putin is not the strategic genius many people assume.
I don't think anyone is assuming that, and to be honest he doesn't have to be any sort of a genius, he's the decision maker not the planning or even the execution of. Thats what the military high command do.
Putin can tell them what his goal is, then its up to them to plan and execute it.
But always remember who Putin was, a very successful KGB agent,with experience, and training in what we term MI5 and Mi6 and it's unlikely you are successful in those areas if you are completely useless. What you can describe him as is smart, and totally ruthless.
If you think of him as a clueless madman given to flights of fancy, then you underestimate your enemy and history has shown that never ends well.
Man removing landmine himself with customary fag in mouth.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497931328322514947
Surely can't be true though, why would the Russians be laying mines?
... but I think it’s still too early to claim it a defeat for him, its only been a few days and some big cities are now surrounded. Let’s not count our chickens.
Yes, too early to claim anything yet other than he has the upper hand at the moment.
(I think we are developing groupthink ...)
Surely can’t be true though, why would the Russians be laying mines?
That's what I thought. It would be more logical for the Ukrainians to lay mine to prevent Russian tanks moving in.
dyna-ti
Free Member
It’s an empty threat.Too much riding on the outcome to easily dismiss this as a bit of sabre rattling, and pushing Russia deep into a corner certainly isnt going to help the situation or the outcome.
He knows full well that the West wouldn't launch first. So if he does, knowing the inevitable retaliation to come, what does he gain?
The only way a scenario like that works out is if (hypothetically) he is mad as a hatter/terminally ill and wants to take the world with him... If that's the case then nothing the West can do will stop that so best to assume that isn't the case and work from there.
So, if he isn't mad/ ill and going to launch anyway... What does he gain by launching?
He could go on state TV I guess minutes before impact and tell them he "won the argument" I suppose?
That's a reasonable way to look at this in my opinion.
It's a bluff and it's entirely part of his MO.
It wasn’t very long ago that people were insisting that the troops amassed near the border ready for invasion were just part of a bluff, that Putin wouldn’t actually try and push troops further into Ukraine.
Man removing landmine himself with customary fag in mouth.
I was expecting him to nonchalantly toss it, discuss style, into a ditch! 😂
If you think of him as a clueless madman given to flights of fancy, then you underestimate your enemy and history has shown that never ends well.
I don't think anybody has said that. There's a whole spectrum of grey inbetween unhinged madman and strategic genius here... But Putin isn't playing to his own strengths here, lets be honest. He is arguably the world expert at espionage, subversion, smoke and mirrors style tactics and general foul play. What he isn't is an expert military tactician, and when pushed into making mistakes, he has been shown to react with emotion quite unbefitting of someone possessing such strategic excellence in other areas.
But then this is what makes him so dangerous... He's especially predictable at what he is good at, but he's unpredictably batshit crazy when he's operating out of his field of expertise, especially when you also consider that as a considerable narcissist he surrounds himself by yes men, which doesn't bode well when trying to fill in skills gaps in areas that you are lacking yourself!
But always remember who Putin was, a very successful KGB agent,with experience, and training in what we term MI5 and Mi6 and it’s unlikely you are successful in those areas if you are completely useless.
He was also a taxi driver. Status isn’t static.
Should we start a Go Fund Me page for Putin to fund a therapist?
I think we are developing groupthink
Yeah we are.
I was expecting him to nonchalantly toss it, discuss style, into a ditch!
I honestly was expecting it to go off 🙁