Slight distraction ...
@ Mboy
Of course they can! China are being heavily influenced by the rest of the world right now FFS!
No, China CCP wants the world to think they are influenced because that's the best way for them to get in without being noticed and to dominate indirectly (manufacturing, technology etc).
I think we are developing groupthink
Yeah we are.
We are way ahead of ourselves by convincing Putin's defeat.
He was also a taxi driver. Status isn’t static.
Should we start a Go Fund Me page for Putin to fund a therapist?
Is this your solution to this crisis ?
So he was a taxi driver, but is it often taxi drivers rise to the very top of the Russian political hierarchy. Ergo any thoughts anyone might have about did he or did he not con a few tourists and overcharge them is pretty much irrelevant at this stage of the proceedings.
he’s unpredictably batshit crazy when he’s operating out of his field of expertise, especially when you also consider that as a considerable narcissist he surrounds himself by yes men, which doesn’t bode well when trying to fill in skills gaps in areas that you are lacking yourself!
I think we can only hope thats the case, and from reading how Russian politics went int he early to mid 2oth century, especially under stalin, what we can hope for is he is deposed by someone under his command, as it appears was the norm during that time.
Look at Krustov Leader of the party, but under Stalin he rose to prominence by effectively executing all his rivals, many of whom were friends and colleagues.
Perhaps that now is our only option or hope, that someone in the military steps in, arrests and its a 3 minute trial and a bullet to the forehead. Carried out in order to save Russia from his mistakes.
You misunderstand.
My point is that it’s not that relevant what someone was or wasn’t. Capability and capacity fluctuates. He might have vascular dementia, alzheimers, whatever.
And no, I don’t have a solution. Nobody does here.
kelvin
Full Member
It wasn’t very long ago that people were insisting that the troops amassed near the border ready for invasion were just part of a bluff, that Putin wouldn’t actually try and push troops further into Ukraine.
I think that's a very different scenario with far lower stakes for himself and others (no disrespect to the Ukrainians there!) and there was a definite "will he/ won't he" element to it that he has used for years. Was anyone truly shocked when he did invade? The US had been telling everyone for weeks he was going to.
Also with Ukraine, with a presumed easy victory, there was much to gain, in Putin's mind anyway. Prestige and sewing further division in the West etc etc.
What does he gain by launching nukes in a first strike scenario? Power and prestige are measured by others. If they and almost everyone else is dead he can be the most powerful ruler in his bunker till provisions run out I suppose.
He wants more than anything to survive this conflict. If he doesn't how will he be able to steer his beloved Russia into becoming a new USSR?
Sorry mboy ,
Amongst other things, Chewkw has been talking about how the Biden administration have been talking to Chima with a view to finding a plausible exit strategy for Putin, looking for an outcome that would suit all 3 superpowers. It's a fourth option to add to your list.
I will admit that the three options you present have a lovely moral arc to them and I would be happy to see any of them realised but most of what we're talking about on this thread is after the fact, how we see things changes on a daily basis and in the heat of battle it's hard to distinguish between what we think might happen and what we want to happen.
Chewkw on the other hand has been pretty consistent. Whilst we're watching a battle on the streets he's talking about the battle behind the scenes between the 3 superpowers, he's repeating his long held position whilst we're reacting to what we see on TV.
No you are right, there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one, but more than likely only if it lists towards what Russia wants.
What happens then we dont know. We can only hope it stops the war. But if Russia is so damaged by these actions, even if the Ukraine was to capitulate today, Russia is now at such low standing there's little route for them to take with Putin still in leadership.
If you/we/they have to say Russia has won, then Russia has won, there's no other routes to take. We cannot interfere directly, for fear of what Russia might do , but if we continue to arm the Ukrainians, that will prolong the fighting until all we see on the news is dead civilians, and even then there's still nothing we can do is stand idly by in utter dismay.
the Ukraine
I wouldn't say that to Ukrainians right now.
Not being a pedant, it's actually pretty relevant at the moment.
Was anyone truly shocked when he did invade? The US had been telling everyone for weeks he was going to.
Just go back a week or two, the internet was full of people saying that Putin was just bluffing and the U.S. intelligence dumps were just propaganda to advance NATO aggression. When Putin pretended he was recalling his troops, they all erupted with, "Told you so." Strange how quiet they have all gone now.
^^ I'm not saying a word.👍😉
On another note, just read this article regarding the incredible effect Putin's war has had on Germany.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60549916
Putin's really succeeded in unifying Europe in a way we could never have imagined in a matter of days.
I bet he didn't see it coming either!
Excellent Twitter thread about why the Russian military is so weak. Again, Putin is not the strategic genius that people mistake him for, he's used to dealing on a tactical level with small-scale operations:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498016412253798401
Agree about the Europe unification.
"If you/we/they have to say Russia has won, then Russia has won"
I think the colloquial term for that kind of win is 'a Verstappen'.
No you are right, there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one, but more than likely only if it lists towards what Russia wants.
Which is basically what happened in Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk (Rhineland, Sudetenland, Chezchoslovakia in the 1930s, there are a lot of parallels)
If we offer Putin any solution other than withdrawing then he will be emboldened and will try again.
If we don't face him down now, when he appears to be at the most vulnerable I've ever seen him, when do we?
If he makes the same nuclear threats on the way to Vilnius or Talin, or Berlin would we do anything anything then?
As risky as it might be this is the time the West has to finally stand up to him. If only we had seen a sanction response like this in 2014 we might not be here, but we are, and giving way again is not an option.
Good point. If you’re old now, your grandparents could have been there.
Not even that old. I am mid-40s and my father’s uncle was in the Royal Scots at Passchendaele.
there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one
Putin has had years and years of diplomatic off-ramps to avoid situations like this. Every time he has simply pushed ahead on the basis that democracies are weak and will never actually do anything about his behaviour. That led him to keep escalating. His attempts at "negotiating" over the last couple of months were just to make proposals that he knew NATO would not accept and then complain when they were rejected. A diplomatic solution would require him to back down and accept offers that he deliberately and publicly rejected before. He will have to accept Ukrainian sovereignty (and probably NATO membership now). If his army is publicly defeated in Ukraine, Georgia and other regions will probably retake disputed regions and also push for NATO membership and it will be difficult for Western countries to support Ukraine but reject Georgian calls for support. A diplomatic solution will only be possible if Putin accepts defeat (which he will not do) or the Russian people boot him out.
Just go back a week or two, the internet was full of people saying that Putin was just bluffing and the U.S. intelligence dumps were just propaganda to advance NATO aggression. When Putin pretended he was recalling his troops, they all erupted with, “Told you so.” Strange how quiet they have all gone now.
I think it is more of a case that they hoped it was all a bluff to get NATO to given assurances on paper that Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO.Bluff does work. Everyone hoped it was a case of that.
Russia obviously felt from watching the rhetoric in the western media that that was never going to be forthcoming and so kicked things off.
People have hope conflict wont erupt.
All that matters now is solving the problem currently at hand. And sorry to say, but we can only look at this in a realist and pragmatic sense.
If we don’t face him down now, when he appears to be at the most vulnerable I’ve ever seen him, when do we?
We don't. We're left in a position because nuclear war is the other option on the table.
It's very easy to say lets call his bluff, but have you or I the right to make such a drastic call, and risk the deaths of billions ?
Because Russia is the largest holder of Nuclear weapons, and now threatening to use them. We can do nothing but back off.
With the big Nuclear powers its all been a game of let's be nice to each other, because due to the formation of these weapons there is no other choice.
Remember how the lets be nice to each other thread went ?, that didnt end well and that just a small forum full of cyclists, not superpowers facing off to each other with the fate of the world hanging in the balance.
Ra Ra Vlad Putin..... Hopefully Vlad goes the same way as Ras'.
Whatever happens down the line NATO and Western Europe in general has been strengthened enormously by this conflict. The absolute opposite of what the Russian regime (of one) wanted.
When the Berlin Wall fell they thought it was all over. It wasn't.
If the West focuses all of it's attention on crushing Putin they could be making the same mistake that they made 30 years ago.
As it is, European spending on defence and cooperation looks like going through the roof and the Russian army doesn't look all that good. Factors that go some way to answering the question; 'what will stop Putin from expanding his ambitions in the future?'
Putin has kicked off a non nuclear arms race. For generations the myth has always been that the overwhelming might of Russian land forces would sweep over western Europe in a matter of days. That myth has been well and truly busted, for both sides.
That's why Putin has started talking about the red button, its all he has left. Rocket Man.
It’s very easy to say lets call his bluff, but have you or I the right to make such a drastic call, and risk the deaths of billions ?
No, but we are just some people speculating on the Internet.
Biden, Johnson, Macron et al do have to make those calls. Hopefully they are much better informed and advised than we are, I would love to know what intelligence they are getting
News stories I've spotted:
Brewery making molotov cocktails https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20220227-ukrainian-brewery-switches-from-beer-to-molotov-cocktails
Protests in Minsk again,it's not just Russia https://mobile.twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497916958473392137
Just in case anyone still believes the "aggressive NATO expansion" nonsense that Putin used as his pretext.
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186496574812161
Don't make Molotov Cocktails like ^that.
Close the top - tie the accelerant round the neck.
Fill no more than 2/3 to make the bottle more likely to break.
dyna-ti
I think it is more of a case that they hoped it was all a bluff to get NATO to given assurances on paper that Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO.Bluff does work. Everyone hoped it was a case of that.
Russia obviously felt from watching the rhetoric in the western media that that was never going to be forthcoming and so kicked things off.
Putin was going to "kick off" whatever the West did. NATO were never going to give that assurance and Putin knew it. It was just another "excuse" for invasion. I'm sure that even if they had, Ukraine would have still been invaded as it has now, or in the near future for its totally made up "ethnic cleansing" or whatever reason Putin dreamt up the night before.
If we don’t face him down now, when he appears to be at the most vulnerable I’ve ever seen him, when do we?
We don’t. We’re left in a position because nuclear war is the other option on the table.
He's being faced down right now, in ukraine and globally. It's the very reason he's threatening us with a big stick. A stick that he knows full well will rebound off us and then hit him in the head too, if used.
Putin was always going to push and push, we stand our ground now or we just end up in the same position when he invades another country, then another. In a way we created this devil, he should never have been allowed to act with utter impunity for so long. The parallel with the 30's is startling.
Because Russia is the largest holder of Nuclear weapons, and now threatening to use them. We can do nothing but back off.
Completely irrelevant. So he can nuke the world 4 times over when we can only nuke it twice? Makes zero difference. We and he are just as dead.
It’s very easy to say lets call his bluff, but have you or I the right to make such a drastic call, and risk the deaths of billions ?
There is a very pressing argument to be made for calling his bluff. Simply that it is inevitable and the outcome of the bluff is likely to be worse as he gets older and even more belligerent. Just how much devastation do we put up with before we say to Putin, "go on then but you won't be alive to gloat either, nor your people."
Now... 10 years from now... the difficult choice will have to be made. However I am very glad I am not the one deciding this. Far cleverer people than I am, hopefully. Though I suspect they are coming up with a similar long term conclusion.
Remember how the lets be nice to each other thread went ?, that didnt end well and that just a small forum full of cyclists, not superpowers facing off to each other with the fate of the world hanging in the balance.
That's the point, it gets tetchy on here because, in relative terms, the stakes are tiny.
Putin doesn't care about the world in the way we might do. He does care about himself though (perhaps even his family, it's possible...), his power, his wealth... heck, even for his country/citizens in some ****ed up way... but mostly about himself.
He'll be thinking about his own personal and political survival tonight, none of which include launching nukes.
Now… 10 years from now… the difficult choice will have to be made. However I am very glad I am not the one deciding this. Far cleverer people than I am, hopefully. Though I suspect they are coming up with a similar long term conclusion.
This point out of all you've said worries me the most. It is a step we have to take or the world be be held at ransom.
We have China, which isnt a nice country. Human right there are terrible and yet we deal with them daily. At some point were going to have to say to them to enough is enough, and they really really arent going to be happy bunnies about it.
I dont want to frighten anyone, but i fear for the future.
Just in case anyone still believes the “aggressive NATO expansion” nonsense that Putin used as his pretext.
Theres been plenty of articles Thols about the stupidity of NATO expansion. Problem is if its presented its immediately dismissed, because some have their view and wont be dissuaded.
To move forward wee have to look at causes and how we got into this situation. It's no good blaming one side alone, no matter how deranged their motives appear. To get the full picture of any situation you need to look at all sides of the argument.
The same rational exists in world politics or on which new 29er sus to buy.
For example, in this thread some presented views, and others have presented views and neither agree because almost like brinkmanship, neither wants to blink first, accept they are , well not wrong, but not looking at both sides of the coin.
One person presents a Guardian article, the other dismisses it citing that particular reporter is no good, or bias. But the truth is they're just dismissing it, rather than bothering to read the words or narrative thats been set out.
So you shouldn't readily dismiss any written word on this crisis, but by looking,reading it it does give you the realist view.
For example. There have been a number of members citing FP( Foreign Policy) as we must take out opinions from somewhere, nobody here has in the last week become an expert on eastern European geopolitics.
So from FP on this crisis we have an article from Stephen Walt. Now I've no idea who exactly he is. And i doubt anyone here really does either, certainly not to readily dismiss his writing,We have to be careful not to fall into the trap on not understanding that there are more points to the equation, so are blind to all the facts.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/ukraine-russia-nato-crisis-liberal-illusions/
It's a longish article. So I would expect anyone reading it to take 15 minutes to read and absorb all thats being said.
In this article it mentions members of the US political system, all of whom accept that NATO expansion is not a good idea, and can foresee the possible problems it can bring. And just the fact that Henry Kissinger was initially one of them adds credence to this point
As follows
" several prominent U.S. experts—including diplomat George Kennan, author Michael Mandelbaum, and former defense secretary William Perry—opposed enlargement from the start. Then-Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger were initially opposed for the same reasons, though both later shifted their positions and joined the pro-enlargement bandwagon."
Although at least Kissinger and Talbott changed their stance, the initial agreement that NATO expansion causing problems is still accepted as fact.
I would say that everyone presented in the article, including the writer have spent much of their lives pondering these questions and are experts in their field. To readily ignore such opinions you place yourself and your own opinion of the situation above that of their lifetime experience,and forgive me if im wrong, but there are no political heavyweights in this forum.
We can all take an interest in the subject, but it is a fleeting one as we get back on the things that concern us personally.
Now I must a bed. I've to be up early to catch the post office where my new V4 brake has been delivered, after the parcel force guy completely lied and said i was out on Thursday, when in fact i was in. Such are the important matters I face outwith my tiny political knowledge.
So much for sleepybys
Putin doesn’t care about the world in the way we might do. He does care about himself though (perhaps even his family, it’s possible…), his power, his wealth… heck, even for his country/citizens in some ****ed up way… but mostly about himself.
He’ll be thinking about his own personal and political survival tonight, none of which include launching nukes.
I hoe you are right. But Putin is an authoritarian an autocrat. He is dangerous and once said, that he would rather there be no world, than a world without Russia.
And that was when his mood was buoyant. Not the incredible stress he'll be under currentlty.
I have a set of four options that was presented in some biography or other(tried to find it earlier) presented by a Russian general of the options Russia has in the point of a nuclear exchange. They are to do with what happens in an 'if scenario'. If be preemptive strike, or if we launch in retaliation, if X number of missiles are intercepted etc etc. No outlook left us with any options, both Russia and US economies would be smashed to the point both countries would no longer have a say on the world stage, and power would shift from US/EU/Russia to China, India and Brazil
I'll try to find it tomorrow, but it doesnt make for light reading.
.
Somebody stop the planet, I want to get off.
Yeah, I need to get to bed now too. My eyes are actually blurry they are so tired.
Good luck with the V4's, apologies if I came across belligerent.👍
I know enough to know I don't know enough. Not even close.😁
Chewkw on the other hand has been pretty consistent. Whilst we’re watching a battle on the streets he’s talking about the battle behind the scenes between the 3 superpowers, he’s repeating his long held position whilst we’re reacting to what we see on TV.
I’m fully well considering what is going on behind the scenes, I’d suggest from much of the colloquial language on here where “Russia” is used rather than “Putin”, and Russia is talked about as if it has a fully stable government and Putin has its full support (or at least is too scared to actually do anything about him), then you’re ignoring the glaringly obvious I’m afraid…
I’ll repeat my point about the Russian Revolution in 1917… Putin is a modern day Tsar, and ostensibly quite a lot worse than the last Royal family in Russia. Misinformation was rife then, but don’t think that a big ship won’t be turned and when it does turn, that retribution won’t be swift and lasting…
Putin is but one man. So he’s the nastiest ****er of the lot of them… And…? 🤷🏻♂️ We are talking about a nation of some severely nasty people as and when they want to be, and I can assure you that not one of those nasty people believes MAD will be a good option for their future way of life… Imagine what’s going through the minds of Russian Mafia bosses right now? The Oligarchs? Senior Ministers in Putins administration that have a little more political self awareness than Putin does…? There will be a very significant price on Putins head right now in the Russian underworld, and that price will be going up significantly every day, it’s just that we don’t know about it. Once the price goes up enough, you only need to think about a John Wick 3 esque scenario where all the hitmen of the underworld are fighting each other for the chance to be the one that collects the bounty! 🤷🏻♂️
There will be protocols in place to stop Putin from gaining full access to the launch codes. In many ways it has suited Russia for a long time now for the West to think they have a potential unhinged individual at the helm, so they’ve let him go about his business pretty much unchecked, making idol threats as and when he feels like it as the chances of the West calling his bluff have increasingly diminished. But 150m Russian citizens don’t want MAD!!! Russias government doesn’t want MAD. Putin may not be the puppet that many other countries have as a front man, but there will be a way of removing him from within should he overstep the mark one time too many, or the price on his head becomes large enough.
The world is not a nice place… And don’t think for one second that the CIA won’t have sources on the ground in the Russian underworld keeping them abreast of all this information, and will be poised to strike with whatever resources necessary to support any internal struggles within the Russian government/mafia/kleptocracy that may be required… After all they have financed enough military coups the world over already, this one wouldn’t be particularly difficult to justify on the grander scale of things…
It’s a bluff and it’s entirely part of his MO.
I hope so because way too many people are ignoring
He is dangerous and once said, that he would rather there be no world, than a world without Russia.
Apparently been repeated by the presenter on some Russian state TV show. There is a real danger of a doomsday cult here.
I've really enjoyed chewkw's input here - that Eastern "saving face" approach isn't one I'm comfortable with but anything that offers a way for a madman to de-escalate the situation needs attention.
(Woke up at 4.30 worrying about going back to work today after a week off, so cheering myself up reading this thread. At least I have woken up and have a job and a life to be worrying about)
I’ve really enjoyed chewkw’s input here – that Eastern “saving face” approach isn’t one I’m comfortable with but anything that offers a way for a madman to de-escalate the situation needs attention.
It's very difficult to see how this doesnt drag out into a long viscous insurgency, it feels like the Ukrainians have done a decent job of planning for this and have enough sense of national identity that no puppet government can survive without large scale occupation forces. And, if even a fraction of the pro Ukrainian media output is correct it's going to be a very hostile environment. I dont buy into the "its Natos fault" line, not least because those countries chose to join NATO because of the existential threat a reinvigorated Russia would, and now evidently does pose. If the Russian leadership dropped imperialist tendencies all of this dangerous confrontation evaporates, as it did with the western European countries in the previous century.
There will be protocols in place to stop Putin from gaining full access to the launch codes.
No, there will not be. Everyone in the Russian government and military serves at Putin's pleasure. He has eliminated anyone who would challenge him, that's why he so badly overestimated Russian military prowness - nobody would have been brave enough to tell him he was making a mistake.
The thing is that he doesn't actually have a big button on his desk that launches the missiles. All he can do is to send orders to the guys in the missile silos and submarines to launch. They have to confirm that it is a genuine order and then cooperate to actually fire the missiles. All those people lower down the chain of command will know that if they launch an attack on NATO, their families will be incinerated in the counter-strike. That's why Biden didn't put U.S. nuclear forces on alert - it demonstrates that the U.S. is not preparing a nuclear strike so that the Russian military understand that going nuclear is entirely on them, not a retaliation for a U.S. attack.
Good posts both piemonster and thols. Unverified reports of Russian soldiers being threatened with execution if they don’t fight. Also Belorussians enquiring about political asylum if they surrender. May not be true but fact that people even consider it might be tells you something about the state of Russian morale I think.
All those people lower down the chain of command will know that if they launch an attack on NATO, their families will be incinerated in the counter-strike.
But what if he ups the ante and fires a nuke into the North sea, as suggested in this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140 ??
What would NATO do then???
I dont buy into the “its Natos fault” line
Nobody really does, it's a code for, "I don't like America/Joe Biden and I want to see them humiliated but I'm going to pretend it's something else."
But what if he ups the ante and fires a nuke into the North sea, as suggested in this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140 ??
What would NATO do then???
Warn people not to eat fish and make it clear that NATO will not launch a first strike on Russia.
Try to appeal to the ruling elites to get rid. May or may not work, but in that situation would have to be worth a try. That’s if they had not already deposed him following him giving the order. As already said though there is a lot of speculation on this thread (as everywhere) and we are not there yet. If it does get that far then it may already be too late I’m afraid.
Russia interest rates up from 9.5% to 20%
At what point do the Russian people no longer accept Putin?
Try to appeal to the people and get them to get rid of both him and the other ruling elites.
Putin and the oligarchs have screwed over the country, given it massive wealth indifference and placed power amongst the very, very few. Maybe the ordinary people need to know that they _can_ make a difference.
Warn people not to eat fish
But would 'NATO' stop supporting Ukraine?
Agree thols. It's the US that has spent 10s of billions of dollars in Ukraine trying to gain influence (and weaken Russias) since the 90s not NATO.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO? Problem solved!
Try to appeal to the people and get them to get rid of both him and the other ruling elites.
Don’t worry, Boris is on the case speaking Russian to them and appealing to their better nature. Worth a crack I suppose.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO? Problem solved!
iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?
Someone might be able to clarify that.
There was some talk of that in the early 2000’s I believe, but Putin decided to move in the opposite direction…. NATO membership I mean.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO? Problem solved!
iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?
Someone might be able to clarify that.
That qas the reason given when they actually did apply