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And I believe they can be shot down by russian AA
The efficacy of Russian air defense systems has been called into question multiple times, you'd think the black sea fleet HQ in Sevastopol would be as well covered as any location but Ukraine has still been able to hit it repeatedly with Storm Shadows and another munitions.
Yeah, the air defence seems better at shooting down its own aircraft more than anything else!
The first $1bn
RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
105mm artillery rounds;
60mm mortar rounds;
Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
Logistics support vehicles;
Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Precision aerial munitions;
Airfield support equipment;
Anti-armor mines;
Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Night vision devices; and
Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
That's quite a shopping list
I hope that nobody's offended (and I know that nobody's said it) but the while the Kerch bridge would make both a practical and a symbolic target, the ATACMS missiles won't do the job
The only talked-about missile with the capability is Germany's Taurus. Its manufacturer has taken the hint that an order for Ukraine isn't happening and MBDA Deutschland CEO Thomas Gottschild has publicised the fact that production will be suspended if something doesn't happen soon, according to German newspaper Der Spiegel on March 30.
And having listened to a news reporter, Ukraine will get Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) goods off the shelf, however, that will be limited to a level that current US stocks will stand and further weapons will then be manufactured to supply Ukraine over the longer term. The PDA limit for FY2024 is $7.8bn and I hope that the unspent c$4bn. from last year is added to that (I dunno)
Some of the $61bn. will go to buy replacement stock for the US and due to the increase in costs of everything, the newly manufactured stock will cost more than shelf stock, which will eat into quantities. This also caused a $10bn budget deficit that has to be put right somehow https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-ukraine-russia-war-funding-716ce5f7f336f1def7e000ac9170f190
The only talked-about missile with the capability is Germany’s Taurus. Its manufacturer has taken the hint ...... production will be suspended ...
Now I will say that from a slow start, Germany has done a fair bit here but....why not...escalation?
Germany has had a few Russian bought politicians but come on. There is a job to do and this seems the ideal tool for that job. Maybe the "after you Joe" we had with tanks will be null and void if ATACAMS are transferred...
I really hope so.
It's about time Ukraine was given what it bloody needs to win the war and get it done. It'll end up saving lives on both sides. If we want them to win, then give them the tools to do so and let Ukraine start rebuilding it's country and economy.
Moldova and God knows where else will be next if Ukraine falls and the world will be looking back and wishing we stopped Putin when we had the chance.
The longer Ukraine is least to struggle the worse the outcome will be on every level.
The only talked-about missile with the capability is Germany’s Taurus.
If anyone else is wondering why despite being the same kind of missile as Storm Shadow, apparently it's because the fuse system makes it more suitable for penetration before it detonates: https://archive.is/5WPvN
Well, Biden signed the bill, so the starting gun has now been fired and a whole lot of metal is now heading east.
Apparently quite a lot of it was already at staging areas in Germany and Poland so by the time a type this there's a fair chance the first shipments will already be inside Ukraine.
Apparently quite a lot of it was already at staging areas in Germany and Poland so by the time a type this there’s a fair chance the first shipments will already be inside Ukraine.
Some of it has already been used according to the BBC
Some of it has already been used according to the BBC
I think that this was from the 12th March PDA https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3704975/biden-administration-announces-urgent-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
"U.S. officials familiar with the matter" kept quiet about the March'24 content because the 11th October '23 shipment was trumpeted in advance https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/biden-agrees-to-send-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00117667
Russia failed to heed the warning resulting in the destruction of a pile of their helicopters on 17th October and Ukraine couldn't rely on incompetence to strike twice
ATACMS was only officially acknowledged after their use when it would be obvious from wreckage what had happened at Dzhankoi airfield in Crimea last week
Russian oil storage facilities are being fitted with cope cages - let’s hope they’re as effective as the tank version.
This came out a little while ago and makes interesting reading. Its from a German newspapaer and basically, its a preemptor to whare everything is now but currently with more extensive violence.
Reading through, I wonder if teh invasion would have happened but just delayed a little. The article askss for further self surrender by Ukraine making an invasion potentially even easier...
The only thing Russia would have accepted was Russian control over Ukraine. The only country interested in attacking Ukraine was Russia, but that treaty would have allowed Russia to veto any assistance from other countries. It wasn't a security guarantee for Ukraine, it was a treaty saying that Russia could do whatever it wanted.
Russia demanded that in the event of an attack, all guarantor states agree to activate the assistance mechanism. This would have given Moscow veto power to override the defense mechanism. In addition, Moscow rejected a Ukrainian demand that guarantor states could establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine in the event of an attack.
I do wonder if at some point, especially in the light of more western aid eventually arriving , that Putin would consider negotiating, especially if he could capture the whole of Donbass.
Followed by the kind of stalemate and low level fighting that we saw after the 2015 peace deal (ultimately planning to take the rest of Ukraine after several years of rebuilding & undermining Ukraine from within)
Being realistic at best it seems that Ukraine will be able to stabilise things, the hoped for summer counteroffensive last year failed, Russia's tactics have improved (even if they are still losing huge numbers of men) and they have secured ammo, weapons & tech from N korea, Iran, China etc. There will come a point when some sort of peace deal looks appealing to Zelensky/Ukraine
This will be the deciding year for Ukraine either way I think. I can still see it potentially ending with some sort of DMZ in the east and an uneasy truce. Putin will of course rebuild his military afterwards but so will Ukraine and they will be far better prepared if he chances his hand again. Hopefully money pours into Ukraine to rebuild and to help it prepare for a future with a belligerent neighbour to deal with.
Putin also needs to be careful what he wishes for. If he does manage to subdue the whole country its going to be one hell of a country to try and keep the lid on.
Its now flooded with people that hate Putin, hate Russia and will cause him no end of problems for decades. He's inflicted way to much pain on the general population to ever submit even if their military has to. Plenty of Ukrainians are now trained to fight and I can see a constant, never ending insurgency happening that could jeopardise Putin just as much as if he loses the war.
I would love to know what cost each square mile of territory gain is costing Russia in terms of manpower and rubbles. Bet it's eye watering. And Ukraine is a very big country.
I think that's a pretty accurate description of eastern Ukraine's future @poopscoop
Looking forward to China taking a bite out of Russia.
I think that the content of any peace treaty will depend on who's in charge on each side.
If a DMZ is a consideration then in theory it could be huge, north-to-south.
Crimea is a possible for peace-keeping zones, similar to the situation on the Sinai Peninsular, but two zones and without Russian troops.
Ukraine's military would patrol the northern zone that has links to "mainland" Ukraine. Ukraine's Border Service and Police would patrol Crimea's tourist areas (Sinai Peninsular has four zones with Egyptian troops in zone A and Israeli troops in zone D)
Looking forward to China taking a bite out of Russia.
The China-Russia dynamic is interesting. China needs a reasonably strong Russia to solidify a multi-polar world
China alone isn't strong enough to take the "west" on. Its banks, for example, are wary of triggering secondary "western" sanctions through certain types of trade with Russia
No one will take a bite out of a country with nukes, that in my opinion is pure fantasy..
It’s the very real mechanism for their plausible use “defence of homeland”and yes I believe they would be used under those circumstances.
im suprised Rishi hasn’t sugested nuking the boats as we are apparently being invaded
^^ I agree but China is far too savvy to do that as it's risky unnecessary. Chinese citizens are already investing in and living in Siberia in large numbers. It will naturally fall more and more under Chinese influence as the years go by. I sometimes do wonder if Putin realises China is the true existential threat to his country, not the West, just as it is to many other countries globally?
China can gain all the advantages of a land grab without a single PLA soldier ever having to fire a single shot. China is very good at this, look at the south China sea. This is far more subtle though and Putin is in no position to stop it.
Ukraine will start operating F-16s after Orthodox Easter on May 5, Kyiv has said, as the country contends with devastating Russian bombardment and the long wait for the Western-made fighter jets.
👍
.
Very out of character for them to announce it in advance.
They usually like making it a nice suprise
China alone isn’t strong enough to take the “west” on.
China is on their 3rd aircraft carriers now which is still far behind the West in technology so no chance whatsoever. In 50 years time that will be a different story.
Looking forward to China taking a bite out of Russia.
What for? They rely on Russia for technology.
If a DMZ is a consideration then in theory it could be huge, north-to-south.
Ukraine will need to consider themselves a "winner" if they can retain half of the country after the war is over, because the other half or 1/3 will definitely be annexed. Whatever remains of Ukraine will be "dysfunctional" at best. Negotiation? With what? DMZ? Russia will make sure of that they are the one in charge of DMZ.
Occupying Ukraine will be a drain on resources which is really pointless, but making it dysfunctional like what the West/US has done to many other countries is much easier.
Crimea is a possible for peace-keeping zones, similar to the situation on the Sinai Peninsular, but two zones and without Russian troops.
Putin has zero interest in any deal involving withdrawing Russian forces and especially any deal allowing third country troops into the region. Treaties and peace deals are just fantasies that ignore the reality of who Putin is. He will eventually die and his replacement will probably be someone even more nationalistic. This is not going to end any time soon.
Useful thread on why the supposed peace talks were just a fantasy.
https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1785771534373585377
https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1785771587876122874
Treaties and peace deals are just fantasies
Every war ends with one of those
...and his replacement will probably be someone even more nationalistic.
Will they share the same view of what is "Russian", or will they need to rebuild an entire country and its economy?
The Russian minimum wage is rising faster than "western" countries, although the economy is supposedly strong https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269963/russia-minimum-wage/
43 companies were forced to sell foreign currency revenue in Russia to prop the ruble up https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/31/russia-capital-controls-rouble-vladimir-putin
The current exchange rate is hovering around 92 rubles to $1 despite this
Bloomberg reported that Russia’s state-owned oil tanker company, Sovcomflot, has renamed four sanctioned tankers with Russian names. They are also under the Russian flag for the first time in a while.
Russia has run out of places to hide its shadow fleet because sanctions have withdrawn their ability to register with other countries.
They replaced Liberian and Marshall Islands flags with the flag of Gabon a few months ago, but that backfired because most ports are deeply suspicious of the Gabon tanker MoT test and subject them to extra checks
What for? They rely on Russia for technology.
Chinese military aerospace (at least, and its probably true for all branches of their military) relies on stolen western tech from the US and Europe. It may have ex-soviet weaponry in its arsenal, but most of those airframes have been retrofitted with home-grown technology based on stolen copywritten and patented tech [that China refuses to recognise].
Treaties and peace deals are just fantasies
Every war ends with one of those
The idea of a treaty with Putin is a fantasy. He has no interest in one and Ukraine knows that he cannot be trusted to abide by any treaty so they aren't going to sign one.
It may have ex-soviet weaponry in its arsenal, but most of those airframes have been retrofitted with home-grown technology based on stolen copywritten and patented tech [that China refuses to recognise].
They are not very good at technology but they learn / copy / acquire fast from all over and recognising patented tech will only be detrimental to their progress.
The idea of a treaty with Putin is a fantasy. He has no interest in one and Ukraine knows that he cannot be trusted to abide by any treaty so they aren’t going to sign one.
Too late for treaty now.
Chloropicrin, diphenylchlorarsine, American-developed Adamsite (diphenylaminechlorarsine), and others were irritants that could bypass gas masks and make soldiers remove their masks, thus, exposing them to phosgene or chlorine.
Nasty technique, make people vomit so they have to remove their masks. No nastier than gassing in the first place, but it's one step further on ingenious evil.
I’d be embarrassed if I were a Moscovite.
They should be but...
Let's face it, even many of the ones that can access Western media and know there is another side to this are fine to accept Putin's version. Hell, there are a lot of Russians living abroad in Western democracies that still support his narrative.
Far more scummy are the MAGA lot though, they can rot in hell for the suffering they have caused all in the pursuit of keeping the Trump acolytes happy.