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Every country that backed Ukraine put on a display of wrecked russian hardware to display at the same time it would be a powerful counter message...
Hell, there are a lot of Russians living abroad in Western democracies that still support his narrative.
Some Russian stabbed a Ukrainian refugee in some little village in Bavaria the other day.
^^ Yep, poor sods were convalescing from wounds fighting for Ukraine only to get murdered by that piece of shit in Germany.
I get a bit angry over Ukraine, sorry.
Edit: We might be taking about different incidents? 2 Ukrainian servicemen in Germany were murdered by a Russian a few days back.
The idea of a treaty with Putin is a fantasy. He has no interest in one and Ukraine knows that he cannot be trusted to abide by any treaty so they aren’t going to sign one
Coincidentally published yesterday evening...
"Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi...snip...stated that wars like the one in Ukraine only end with treaties and that both Russia and Ukraine are competing for the most favorable position ahead of potential talks that could begin as early as the second half of 2025"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2024
It's all happening in the Russian MoD with infighting between them and other governmental depts...
"The recent arrest of Timur Ivanov, Russia’s deputy defence minister and close ally of defence minister Sergei Shoigu, has rocked the country’s politics." 5 minute read... https://theconversation.com/russia-arrest-of-deputy-defence-minister-on-corruption-charges-reveals-bitter-factional-infighting-among-the-elite-229060
I get a bit angry over Ukraine, sorry
Why?
UKs rapid aid ^^ has started to arrive in Ukraine, confirmed by David Cameron, "Some of that (equipment) is actually arriving in Ukraine today, while I'm here,"
David Cameron also confirmed that UK weapons can be used inside Russia's borders,"Cameron said Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia, and that it was up to Kyiv whether to do so."
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-cameron-kyiv-promises-ukraine-aid-as-long-it-takes-2024-05-02/
He talks about "snip...emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment...snip" to put that into perspective, UK has only ever made 179 AS90 self-propelled guns (SPG). Some are in eastern NATO countries with UK forces and UK has now given 50 to Ukraine, plus 12 non-functioning SPGs for spares. UK is starting to get the new Archer guns to the military here
UK has also given a squadron (14) Challenger 2 tanks, plus recovery and repair vehicles. UK needs to keep a few back for use and 148 for upgrading to Challenger 3 spec.
relapsed_mandaloria
Full Member
I get a bit angry over Ukraine, sorryWhy?
Sorry, my post might be a little ambiguous!
I mean to say I hate the MAGA lot and the like that have been prepared to let Ukraine literally count the bullets they have to defend their own people.
Ukraine are giving everything in this fight and having to fight to even get the weapons to do so. I'm just appalled by that.
So more correctly, I hate the MAGA lot and other useful idiots that have assisted Putin in one way or another.
thats the first time its been stated ukraine can use western weapons inside russia isn't it. have the US changed thier stance?
I'd see the main benefit is not what ukraine hits, but what it can threaten and therefore force russian AA to be more wide spread
I'm no longer seeing stories around russian missle stockpiles, it was commonly reported they were going to run out and that just doesn't seem to have happened. Sure NK and Iran have helped, but I can't imagine in huge numbers, given they would need to be maintaining enough kit for their own defence too.
thats the first time its been stated ukraine can use western weapons inside russia isn’t it.
It's occasionally a mixed message...
James Heappey, a defence minister, said something similar in 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61226431
I'm pretty sure that Ben Wallace has as well, although he also said, "Their use of Storm Shadow will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian Sovereign Territory." https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-oral-statement-on-war-in-ukraine--3
That article about all the political infighting is interesting, I wonder if that could be a catalyst for loosing the war if one of the major political departments tries a coup and loads of miliary gets quickly withdrawn, either for attack or defence, (or both).
Not entirely implausible as was seen with the Wagner lunatics, does Putin really has the influence to keep everyone in check if it really kicked off?
The ever excellent Steve Rosenberg
I would not do that man's job for all the tea in China. I mean I know he's probably out of Putin's grasp, but seriously, how much must his insurance cost...There's no way I'd be western media living in Moscow being critical of Putin's regime. To misquote Rob Warner; how does that man sit down..?
have the US changed thier stance?
Again, I've seen both, in response to a question about firing ATACMS at Russia, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said, "So it up to them on how and when to use it, and our hopes are that they'll create some pretty good effects with that and other things." https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3758232/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-and-air-force-general-charles-q-brown-j/
I've also seen it reported differently, even the day before Jake Sullivan said, "snip...provide Ukraine with a "significant" number of ATACMS missiles for use inside Ukrainian territory -- against Russian invaders." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-secretly-long-range-missiles-ukraine-russian-invaders/story?id=109584125
Please tell me ATACMS is meant to sound like attack ’em.
If you check Wikipedia in about 5 minutes, you'll find that it says exactly that.
Plural - Attack 'Ems
Re:Steve Rosenberg.
Same with secunder kermani he used stand right next to the Taliban whilst reporting on them. Huge conkers.
10 min written article + optional podcast on the current situation in Ukraine by Phillips P. O'Brien.
It puts a sense of perspective back into the gloom and doom-mongering from certain media sources. It's quite spread out, with maps, so keep scrolling...
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-79-the-lines-are-stabilizing
https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3?shareType=nongift/blockquote >
Paywalled 😞
For those who can't see the FT article, it's reported by ISW as well.
"The Financial Times (FT) reported on May 5, citing unspecified European intelligence officials, that Russia has been actively preparing “covert bombings, arson attacks, and damage to infrastructure” in Europe using its own forces and proxies." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2024
Russia and it's allies have been involved in hybrid warfare for a while now, e.g. the damage to comms cables in the Baltic in September 2023, constant computer hacking, sending asylum seekers from Russia into the EU via Poland (etc) since 2021. The latest reports represent a step-up in severity with fires and other damage
The GPS jamming in the Baltic region has become a problem for airlines; some of the budget carriers have mistakenly landed at the actual city named in their advertising and not at some outpost with an hour coach transfer 🙂
They have been jamming GPS here in Finland ever since the start of the latest aggression. Along the border with Russia the jamming is a constant nuisance for all pilots. It started already before Finland applied for NATO membership. Such nice neighbours they are.
@mrauer everybody's nightmare neighbours, you have our sympathy. I bet there are yappy dogs, loud music, mattresses & busted washing machines etc. all over their front lawn!
Although I gave to say I am very glad that your tough and resourceful country, with it's history of standing up to Russia has joined us in NATO 👍
Personally I am not happy about needing to join NATO, I would have preferred for us to remain a neutral country, but under these conditions? Better to have someone to have our back, but I would still like to have an agreement that states "no nuclear weapons on Finnish terrain" but that remains to be seen - the specific agreements are still being worked out.
My late grandma always taught us the old saying (it dates back hundreds of years) "A russki is a russki, no matter if you fry them in butter". From a period called "lesser wrath" and "great wrath" when russians made rape and pillage campaigns over the eastern parts of what is now Finland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wrath
They sure have not changed. It is so sad to think that Russia has been doing this for hundreds of years now. This description could be straight from Bucha or any part of occupied Ukraine.
Brutalities
Mothers and fathers were tortured in front of their children and vice versa. Finns were hanged by their wrists with their hands behind their backs and exposed to freezing cold temperatures. Another commonly used torture method was to bake them in ovens. When a man named Esko Juhonpoika Eskonsipo returned to Oulunsalo in 1716, only a few of his acquaintances were alive and "they were also tortured until they were weak." He found the corpses of children as well as tortured people languishing in pain, eventually dying from their injuries. According to Professor Kustaa H. J. Vilkuna [fi], many authentic sources depict the torture. It was not rare for females of any age to be raped and taken as long-term sex slaves. Children in particular were taken to Russia as prisoners.[14]The main reason for the torture was to get information about Finns' money stashes. Finns were forced to reveal the caches, and afterwards they were usually killed. Peter the Great had also twice ordered the destruction of the Northern Ostrobothnia into wasteland, making the conditions impossible for the Swedish army to live in. In Porvoo, corpses of the locals were put on display as early as 1708, some of which had their genitals burned. Typically, all the houses except the soldiers' quarters were burned. Everyone in Kirkonkylä [fi] would be killed.[14]
Grim reading. Parts of it do seem to echo reports from Bucha. Also this resonates:
Children in particular were taken to Russia as prisoners.
Kidnap and Russification of Ukrainian children happening today on a massive scale 😕
I get why it was such a wrench for Sweden and Finland to give up their neutrality, and it would be a different, better world if it hadn't been necessary. But in the circumstances? Putin left you with little choice. The irony is that for all his bluster about NATO expansion, he is the biggest cause of it.
Indeed. There was never a majority support for joining NATO before, but that changed instantly after what happened to Ukraine.
mrauer
Re joining Nato, maybe not so much lost more gained. Neutrality is a position or stance which has served well in past times. But having a neighbour that doesn't respect or care about international law, agreements and treaties, international sovereign state borders and one which also lacks basic humanity, compassion and has previous form such as you describe...maybe NATO is needed at the moment.
So if the articles linked above are true, more Salisbury style Russki mir across Europe.
Another SU34 down.
Indeed. There was never a majority support for joining NATO before, but that changed instantly after what happened to Ukraine.
It's almost as if, for better or worse, the Russain war against Ukraine has made a few people think..maybe we should form stronger millitary friendships with some of our neighbours, or we might be next.
Now, I'm not saying the Russians did this but...
MoD data breach: UK armed forces' personal details accessed in hack
I think the chinese are responsible for the data hack https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68967805
Assassination attempt on Zelensky foiled, 👍
Shoigo sacked, probably a bad thing for Ukraine, considering how shit he was.
New front opened up by Russia near Kharkiv - 1700 losses for Russia, hopefully it will stall.
i saw some blaming the fact ukr wasnt allowed to use western weapons on russian soil for khakiv. apparently they could see them massing troops but werent able to disrupt.
The way the news reports are sounding its like ukr is only just holding on. focus is always on how many men russia has lost, ukraine must have lost a huge number too and jas far less capacity to replace them
i cant see f16s or whatever else making much difference if its manpower on the front lines they need
I find the Phillips P. OBrien sub stack linked earlier in the thread very good for less “headline grabbing” commentary. His view is that while Russia is a making gains, in some cases it is as little as 500m in two weeks it is a desperate push to make progress before the American aid arrives and levels the playing field again
the American aid arrives and levels the playing field again
Is that before or after the Russians are crushed by Leopard tanks? Or blown to bits by ATACMS? Or shot to smithereens by F16's?
Yes, recent news has been pretty depressing. I've been guilty of saying "it's just incremental gains, here and there" but even though Ukraine is a huge country, they are starting to mount up. I agree with Matt above, Putin simply cannot be allowed to win this. Yes for Ukraine's sake obviously, but for peace and security in Europe for years to come.
I really hope that Ukraine can hold the line until new kit starts to take effect. I hope that behind the scenes the UK and every other Western country with a stake in this is providing intelligence, technical assistance and whatever it takes to turn the tide. **** Russia, whatever happens in the war, even if (god forbid) they 'win' I hope it's the undoing of them. Economically, demographically, strategically or whatever else.
its not just arms and artillery Ukraine is outmatched in, they have a long border and should have started drafting more troops sooner, even then Russia has a big advantage in soldiers
I was pondering the arrival of the F16s and what might happen if they are used to take down aircraft over Russia that launch the cruise missiles and glide bombs. This would actually be a good thing but I just wonder if there are operational limits imposed or, what the Russian response may be.
This would actually be a good thing but I just wonder if there are operational limits imposed or, what the Russian response may be.
it is also inevitable that some will get shot down, Russian air defence has proven effective at shooting down their own ! the f16s will be a tempting target for Russia, in the air and on bases,