Forum menu
Ukraine aid bill passed and all the russian stooge republican amendments failed!
Full story here... https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-77-ukraine-aid-passes
It's worth reading IMHO. The next question is how long until it gets to the vote in the US Senate and Tuesday is a possibility.
Congress was kept back from recess this week
"Moscow Marge" totally works, hope it sticks
The logistical support networks for Ukraine are well established now and a mentioned above, a lot of work has been done behind the scenes to get things ready as it began to look like the vote would happen.
Whilst not everything on the list will be immediate, some of the most crucial supplies will be on the ground in days, not weeks, once Biden signs it.
And yes, don't allow yourself to think that Russia can keep this up forever either, they had massive warchest of currency built up before they launched this and they've already blown through 2 3rds of it.
I wouldn’t underestimate the moral boost that this aid package will give.
Absolutely this. Russian troops will have access to Ukraine's mobile phone service and SM too, imagine the effect on them
For context, so far the US has sent approx 44 billion in military aid, so another 61 is huge.
source - https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/
Question guys/ladies.
Is Ukraine getting all of that 61 billion? I thought some of it was for Israel and Taiwan, or have I got that wrong?
Cheers!
^^ Cheers mate, that's good news. 👍
longer range actams included , due to arrive by the end of next week, Crimean bridge will be getting nervous !
also Russia lost a (very old) ship today
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1781974115605504165?t=IvmR17VmBO8g91LpL0IJDQ&s=19
It’s going to make any kind of salvage in the Black Sea much harder for them.
especially as they have a lot of vessels now gracing the seabed!
especially as they have a lot of vessels now gracing the seabed!
An outside chance that it may cause second thoughts over Russia's use of BSF submarines to launch missile attacks on Ukraine. They have three kilo-class, a fourth was damaged by Ukraine while in dry dock in September.
A dodgy torpedo caused the Kursk submarine disaster
^^ Cheers mate, that’s good news. 👍
There's another few $bn already in the fund that wasn't used due to the need to backfill US stock, so maybe $65bn
“ Ukraine has not only held on, but inflicted massive casualties on Russia. How long can they continue to absorb the kind of daily losses like, 20 APC, 40 Trucks, 15 tanks, 20 artillery pieces and huge infantry losses.”
Hitler thought that in 43/44 when the Russian losses were massive, recent losses have been nowhere near the losses in WW2. I know todays World is different, but Russia is a vast Country with the resources to continue building weapons without any supply from other Countries. With Putin in charge, he won’t be bothered about how many die, or how many vehicles are lost, he’ll just order/conscript more men to fight, and make more weapons to supply them. The only end to this will be Putins death, he has no thought about backing down, as it’ll be seen as a defeat for him, he’ll want to fight to the death, hopefully there will be enough sensible Generals available to stop him using nuclear weapons when the War does turn against him.
maybe...
pretty incredible that ship was a vetern of 2 WWs. Didn't know it existed, sounds like it should have been a museum piece.
I doubt it will cause the impact forbes etc... are suggesting, but it is most definitely another blow to the russian navy. They need to catch those subs and Russia will have no effective capability to enforce any black sea embargo
Already reading suggestions russian offensives maybe being scaled back due to the release of US aid, if true this is a good thing
Have you seen the line-up as potential Putin successors? One thing's for sure, it won't get any better.
We in The West are continuously baffled by the fact that any change of Russian leader is generally a bad thing for us. The CIA are starting to get it, some of our old school diplomats get it, but our politicians simply do not. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an evil murdering nut job, but nobody waiting in the shadows would be an improvement.
Have you seen the line-up as potential Putin successors? One thing’s for sure, it won’t get any better.
Agreed, and that point has been made many, many times in this thread. I don't think many, if any on here expect Russia to become a functioning liberal democracy on good terms with us and all it's neighbours when Putin is no longer in the Kremlin.
The best realistic outcome I think, is to give them enough of a bloody nose that they at least think twice in future before trying to invade sovereign nations they fancy absorbing into their empire.
Ukraine is apparently continuing to succeed against Russian electro-mechanical sites.
They've gone after large electrical sub-stations, transformer factories and now this electric motor factory https://english.nv.ua/nation/voronezh-machine-building-plant-ablazed-reportedly-3-people-were-killed-and-2-wounded-50412017.html
The best realistic outcome I think, is to give them enough of a bloody nose that they at least think twice in future before trying to invade sovereign nations they fancy absorbing into their empire.
Timely lecture by Prof Timothy Snyder on empires and how they eventually fall; it's an historical cycle, "It will be awkward when they lose a war, but the best chance and I believe the only chance to have something like a normal Russia is for Russia to lose this war."
Full video of the lecture at the end... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/04/21/timothy_snyder_the_west_needs_to_accept_that_regime_change_in_russia_will_look_odd_and_scary_but_we_cant_control_it.html
Here's a short discussion on Timothy Snyder's piece. I agree that the best thing for Russia is for Russia to lose and the Putin regime to collapse (just like the failure in Iraq and Afghanistan was actually the best outcome for the U.S. - without that, they never would have learned the lesson that they needed to learn.)
https://twitter.com/Sasha_Etkind/status/1782324279943553231
@Timba I was just going to post that up. Its really interesting. Particularly the first clip in answer to the question "What would a defeated Russia look like? " Also notice he doesn't mention the UK losing any wars. Wonder if we would be a bit different if we had?
Also been catching up on why US speaker Johnson changed his mind and pushed through the defence aid budget. Not conclusive. Johnson is an evangelical christian and met with Ukrainian religious representatives last week who explained the persecution of christians in russian occupied areas of Ukraine. Johnson will also have been party to the confidential white house briefings.
Trump has been very quiet as far as I can see. Maybe pre-occupied with court cases. Maybe realises political capital of delaying it to have a negative affect on Biden may come back on him as public opinion sees him for what he is doing. Might have affected Johnson.
Anyone seen any other reasons?
The US defense budget also specifically requires the US to send ATACMS. Huge game changer if it happens and includes the longer range variant as Ukraine will be able to hit the Kerch bridge. I wonder if Biden and Jake Sulliven will block this for "national security" reasons.
Anyone seen any other reasons?
I think that most of the Republicans in congress know that Putin is a murderous tyrant and it's in the U.S. interest for Ukraine to succeed, but they also know that Trump thinks that Putin is his buddy and that they will face a primary challenge from the MAGA crew if they buck Trump. I think MTG overplayed her hand and Johnson called her bluff.
I think that most of the Republicans in congress know that Putin is a murderous tyrant
Apparently even some of the Republicans that voted against the bill.
Feedback in the US suggests that quite a few Republicans waited and only voted 'No' when it became apparent that there was no real chance of the Bill failing, they wanted it to pass but if possible wanted to be seen to vote against it because of the backlash they'd face from the Trump base otherwise.
As it was, the bill passed and they were able to keep their Trumpy brownie points for no real cost.
So much of this hinges on Trump personally and what happens in November.
The damaged Patriot system has been returned to the US for repair.
Just 1 launcher, a very small part of 1 system, the rest of which is still operational.
Report I read said two Components which had been damaged by failing debris, remarkable more haven’t been damaged or destroyed
The launchers are the simplest and easiest to replace/repair bits as well. The mobile control station and the radar itself are a different matter.
Also notice he doesn’t mention the UK losing any wars. Wonder if we would be a bit different if we had?
We've lost a few. Off the top of my head Suez, American Revolution, and lost large parts of France which we used to own. Ireland, India, etc weren't exactly peaceful transitions to independence.
just like the failure in Iraq and Afghanistan was actually the best outcome for the U.S. – without that, they never would have learned the lesson that they needed to learn
They haven't learnt any lessons, politicians never do. History is littered with examples of mission creep, lack of clarity, failure to engage with those you employ to advise in such matters. That's why empires fall, they reach a critical mass of ego, avarice, excessive bureaucracy and technocrats which lead the beast to bite off more they can chew which ultimately leads to its downfall.
Ukraine might be that bite for Putin, it might not. Time will tell.
Anyone seen any other reasons?
I posted a link to Phillips P. O'Brien on the previous page ^^ that gives a few https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-77-ukraine-aid-passes
UK "rapidly" sending its largest ever military aid package:
60 boats, including raid and dive boats, as well as naval guns;
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional long-range Storm Shadow missiles;
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 Husky protected mobility vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles;
About 4 million rounds of ammunition for small arms. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/23/7452471/
That's good to see, none of the all important 155mm artillery rounds but it looks like the Czechs and the US have finally got that covered now.
The number of smaller boats in that package is interesting, if the Ukrainians are requesting those it suggests plans for the Dnipro/Krynky direction.
Seems the US aid package will include the longer range ATACMS for the first time. 300 km, around twice the range of those Ukraine has already used to such great effect and bringing the whole of occupied Crimea in range. In significant quantities too, with some reports saying ~ 1000 and in place by the end of this week. The talking heads on Russian state TV are in meltdown. It's given them something else to bleat on about, instead of constantly for calling for genocide in Ukraine. Ahh bless..
And drop it on victory day
I’m looking forward to the Kerch bridge getting dropped. Properly dropped….
Still far easier said than done. A truck bomb with several tons of explosives damaged it badly in 2022 but even that was repaired and enhanced security checks means it's unlikely they'll get away with that ruse again. None of the the precision weapons in the Ukrainian inventory have warheads big enough to do anything other than poke repairable holes in it. They also have a finite supply of them and they can be used to greater strategic effect elsewhere.
I’m looking forward to the Kerch bridge getting dropped. Properly dropped….
1,000 long range ATACMS en route plus the toll Ukraine has been taking on Russian air defence and early warning systems in and around Crimea recently strongly suggests that Ukraine will be in a position to do this as and when they feel like it and there will be very little the Russians can do to stop them.
The annoying thing is that Russia isn't far off completing the southern railway connection between Rostov on Don and Crimea which will mean the Kerch bridge is soon going to be nowhere near as crucial as it has been up until now, damn the stalling by the GOP.
And I believe they can be shot down by russian AA, which you'd expect to be quite strong around such a critical target.
Just reading ISW - found this interesting, still trying to destabilise moldova, further evidence it won't 'stop' with ukraine
Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of April 22 to 23, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use to bribe protestors and voters
It’s still worth taking down the bridge
Never a container ship around when you need one.
The annoying thing is that Russia isn’t far off completing the southern railway connection between Rostov on Don and Crimea
Increasing "target richness".
Speaking of trains... whatever happened to that armoured train that was mentioned absolutely ages ago, the thing people said was out of WWI.
Is it still around? Functioning?