makes you wonder which side Trump is on
Really? You still aren't sure?
Given how everyone was clamouring for Ukraine to have the F16 we don't seem to hear much about it's performance.
We have endless pictures of drones blowing up tanks but not much in the way of Top Gun shoot outs.
German media Bild is reporting that the SU35 Super Flanker shot down at the weekend fell prey to an F16 guided by a Swedish-built SAAB AEW&C aircraft
The two Beriev A50 aircraft damaged in Op Spiderweb would be used in the same way as the SAAB and give older, theoretically less-capable aircraft an advantage https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-shoots-down-russia-jet-2082811
President Trump's two-week window for a response to Russia "tapping him along" has passed
"Within two weeks. We're gonna find out whether or not (Putin is) tapping us along or not.
"And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn3vqex47o
Well, the US responded,
WASHINGTON DC – Pentagon head Pete Hegseth hinted on Tuesday that the White House was considering a budget reduction in its $300 million Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), saying that President Donald Trump’s administration “takes a very different view of that [Russia-Ukraine] conflict,” according to Kyiv Post’s Washington correspondent. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54318
Same article,
“This administration has done, seemingly, everything possible to alienate America on the world stage and turn our back on our allies, particularly Ukraine,” Congressmember Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Ranking Member of the Committee, told Hegseth.
The US national deficit for the period Oct '24 to May '25 rose by $162 billion. $300mn represents 0.19% of that increase (please check my maths) and a ridiculously small % of the $1.36 trillion overall deficit
$300mn represents 0.19% of that increase (please check my maths) and a ridiculously small % of the $1.36 trillion overall deficit
In fairness they need that 300 million to spend on Trumps birthday parade and also sending troops into US cities to try and escalate things.
TACO.
TACO.
Didn't the Trump foundation (family) recently get a big plane from Qatar to replace Air Force 1 - that'll save $450 million? Not that it will take off, with all that gold inside.
In fairness they need that 300 million to spend on Trumps birthday parade and also sending troops into US cities to try and escalate things.
Nah, that is only costing about 48 million according to something I saw this morning and 16 of that is going on repairs to the roads in DC that the parade will damage.
Didn't the Trump foundation (family) recently get a big plane from Qatar to replace Air Force 1 - that'll save $450 million? Not that it will take off, with all that gold inside.
It seems to be a bit more complicated (and murky) than that. Nobody's quite sure what the deal is, Trump may have not been completely honest about the details.
Didn't the Trump foundation (family) recently get a big plane from Qatar to replace Air Force 1 - that'll save $450 million? Not that it will take off, with all that gold inside.
It seems to be a bit more complicated (and murky) than that. Nobody's quite sure what the deal is, Trump may have not been completely honest about the details.
The aircraft was the headline stealer...
But concerns about the AI Gulf deals extend beyond human rights matters. Corruption is another issue. Reporting indicates that in the months leading up to Trump’s visit, billions of dollars from Middle East governments flowed towards his companies. In one striking example, the UAE placed $2 billion through an investment firm into Trump’s new cryptocurrency outfit, World Liberty Financial, which is overseen by his sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. (all of whom stand to make “tens of millions of dollars per year” from the investment, according to The New York Times). This news was subsequently eclipsed by Trump’s acceptance of a $400 million luxury jet from Qatar, an airplane so opulent it is known as “a flying palace” wrote ABC News. And it’s not just Trump and his family who have benefited from the Gulf’s largesse. His close associates have also accrued benefits. https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/trumps-ai-gamble-in-the-gulf-doesnt-put-america-first/#post-heading
In a moment of breath-taking irony, Russia condemned Israel's attacks on Iran
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned Israel's strikes against Iran and notably claimed that "unprovoked military strikes against a sovereign UN member state, its citizens, sleeping peaceful cities, and nuclear energy infrastructure facilities are categorically unacceptable."[2] The Russian MFA claimed that these Israeli strikes against Iran undermined and set back efforts to find solutions to "eliminate any suspicions and prejudices regarding Iran's peaceful nuclear energy." https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-13-2025
WW3, and meanwhile Ukraine is getting battered and as this thread shows, no-one is watching.
People are. It's difficult to comment when everything is so unpredictable
One President leaving the G7 before the arrival of another as a recent example
WW3, and meanwhile Ukraine is getting battered and as this thread shows, no-one is watching.
Poor return on investment in Ukraine so why bother, and the probability of winning is nil.
Better to invest in Middle East where the petrol dollar is.
WW3, and meanwhile Ukraine is getting battered and as this thread shows, no-one is watching
In terms of this thread, the Ukraine, Trump and WW3 ones are becoming increasingly intertwined.
If my theory that Putin had pressured Iran into getting Hamas to launch their attack on Israel as a distraction from Ukraine is correct then it has probably gone better than he could ever have dreamt. Add in Trump playing the 'useful idiot' role (and I'm being generous there, it's the most likely scenario but he could well turn out to be a Russian agent, nothing would surprise me any more).
The only silver lining in the Israel/Iran war is that Israel might destroy all the shithead drone production facilities.
The only silver lining in the Israel/Iran war is that Israel might destroy all the shithead drone production facilities.
These are now produced in Russia.
The only silver lining in the Israel/Iran war is that Israel might destroy all the shithead drone production facilities.
These are now produced in Russia.
Which Ukraine is targetting...
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/14/ukraine-strikes-russian-drone-factories/
Doublepost...
These are now produced in Russia
🤬 Aholes.
In a moment of breath-taking irony, Russia condemned Israel's attacks on Iran
And the Israelis condemned Iranian attack on a hospital. 
I think much of the current situation in Ukraine and middle east is due to Trump (and by extension American) weakness. He has demonstrated to his friends and enemies that he does not have the stomach, temperament, or intelligence to deal with these often intertwined foreign affairs.
Hence Russia taking him for a ride and exploiting the uncertainty as much as they can, and Ukraine suffering the consequences. Hence Israel testing his resolve and exploiting an opportunity to attack Iran while it is weak and knowing the US won't stop it. All of his actions are having the opposite effect of the outcomes he hopes for to win a nobel peace prize.
All of his actions are having the opposite effect of the outcomes he hopes for to win a nobel peace prize.
Clouds, silver linings, etc.
Well, i'd rather he did the right thing to achieve the right peace in the right places - even if it meant he did get the prize (which he never was likely to). I'd rather reward a complete A-hole for doing the right things, than having to suffer the horrible consequences of his doing all the wrong things...
interesting listening here
from 2021 looking at russian and others hybrid attacks
and a new series wargaming how a Russian attack on UK might play out
https://news.sky.com/story/the-wargame-podcast-what-if-russia-attacked-the-uk-13381047
In July 2022 the Olenivka POW prison run by Russia for captured Ukrainian military personnel was destroyed by explosives. Russia blamed a HIMARS strike by Ukraine while Ukraine denied it.
The UN wanted to investigate properly but Russia refused to co-operate, despite around 50 deaths and 130 wounded
The UN conducted an investigation, limited by a lack of security guarantees and
"...a group of UN experts released a detailed report containing evidence — an internal UN analysis concluded that it was Russia that planned and carried out the attack. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/un-experts-confirm-olenivka-attack-in-ukraine-1751314160.html
I remember that happening and how incredibly fishy it seemed even at the time.
Another war crime to add to the growing list.
On Christmas Day, 2024, Russian AD shot an Azerbaijan Airlines plane down leading to around 70 dead and injured.
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan haven't really improved and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, didn't attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow in May.
There have been a series of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, raids on media companies, arrests of journalists, etc. last week following Russian police raids on citizens of Azerbaijan who are allegedly involved in organised crime and murder.
This culminated in the widely reported return of the bodies of two Azerbaijani men who were allegedly beaten to death by police in Yekaterinburg following their arrest. https://www.reuters.com/world/azerbaijani-men-arrested-by-russian-police-were-beaten-death-baku-says-2025-07-01/
It's becoming apparent that states that have a degree of autonomy are moving away from Russia, which complicates Russia's diplomatic efforts, and in Azerbaijan's case towards Turkiye and Europe which it supplies with oil.
Russia's war with Ukraine is continuing to weaken alliances elsewhere as states previously connected with Russia take advantage of Russia taking its eye off the ball
The US is running low on stocks of missiles to send to Ukraine.
It isn't clear why, but you can partly attribute it to the numbers of missiles suddenly needed in the middle-east for raids on Houthi military bases and more recently Iran.
The US military was asked to consider $50bn in cuts under the current administration in February and weapon stocks are taking a hit, which will compound the issue https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-halts-some-missile-shipments-ukraine-over-low-stockpiles-politico-reports-2025-07-01/
It's hoped by President Zelensky that the most recent pause in arms supplied to Ukraine by the US ^^ is under serious reconsideration by President Trump.
The removal of weapons already in Poland and alleged turning around of supply flights seems to be some sort of "bring back everything" miscommunication within the Pentagon because some of the weapons removed are on the verge of obsolescence with US forces
It's seems possible that the removal of weapons from Poland, bought and accounted for by Congress, will put the WH in breach of legislation as happened in Trump v1.0.
Hopefully President Zelensky's optimism isn't misplaced and the weapons are delivered
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"Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
It isn't clear if this statement includes BRICS nations, i.e. Russia, or just those aligned, e.g. Indonesia
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/leaders-growing-brics-group-gather-rio-summit-2025-07-06/
President Putin isn't attending in person because of an ICC arrest warrant that is enforceable in Brazil.
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OPEC+ is raising oil output limits by another 25% in August, which will continue to reduce Russian energy revenue. It's likely to be a counter to US tariffs that are due to be applied on 1st August while the two OPEC+ rises to date have already reduced the price of US oil.
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Allegedly Houthi militants have sunk a Greek bulk carrier ship in the Red Sea.
The Houthis were reportedly submissive in May, following US strikes including B2 bomber raids
"They said please don't bomb us any more and we're not going to attack your ships," Trump said of the Houthis during an Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "And I will accept their word, and we are going to stop the bombing of the Houthis effective immediately." https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-will-stop-bombing-houthis-after-agreement-struck-2025-05-06/
This will have an adverse effect on AD weapons available to Ukraine and on declining oil prices ^^
To round off the US weapons pause saga, good news for Ukraine.
Germany is also looking to buy Patriot to enable transfers to Ukraine as well
"We're going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves," Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"They're getting hit very hard now," he added. "We're going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-us-will-send-more-weapons-ukraine-2025-07-08/
During May 2024 a purge of Russian senior defence officials began with five arrested within a month and Sergei Shoigu demoted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c900qz4wll4o
It continued at a lower level into 2025, but has hit the headlines again this month:
Konstantin Strukov of Yuzhnuralzoloto gold mining; subject to state asset seizure,
Viktor Strigunov a former Rosgvardiya (National Guard) director; arrest for corruption,
Andrey Badalov, VP of Transneft oil; fell from a window,
Roman Starovoit former Transport Minister; shot himself after losing his job. It's reported that the gun used was an official gift
Timba, thanks for keeping this thread ticking over. I follow events in Ukraine quite closely, but haven't posted much in here as there hasn't been much to say. Russia's summer ground offensive is largely banging its head on a brick wall and Ukrainian defence is as determined as ever. The air war seems to be the most significant thing atm. Russia's ability to manufacture drones at scale despite sanctions is a concern. OTOH Ukraine has developed into a defence manufacturing and drone tech behemoth, with other countries flocking to them to buy kit. Their rapid innovation and manufacture upscaling is keeping them very much in the war.
Konstantin Strukov
Particularly interesting as he's one of Putin's oligarchs, and a significant donator. Tried to flee to Turkiye on his personal jet and was arrested on corruption charges
Anders Nielsen makes the interesting point that Trump's constant maddening on and off again assistance to Ukraine and sporadic talking tough on Putin is actually helpful to Russia.
If Trump had come into office and just said "That's it, Putin and I are besties, not one more bullet to Ukraine" then the rest of the West would have been forced to step up and whilst that would have been a horrible shock, by now the actions resulting from that scramble would have started to bare fruit.
As it is, Trump's ambiguity gives some people an excuse to sit on their hands in the hope that America will still rescue the situation without them having to do that much themselves.
I wonder if the Trump indecisivness and not supplying munitions to Ukraine would actually put him in breach of the agreement that he forced Zelensky to sign. It would be a terrible shame if it did and that whole agreement could be torn up and negotiated again (on better terms for UKR)
Russia's ability to manufacture drones at scale despite sanctions is a concern.
China stopped export of specific drone parts to everyone last year, but opened a facility that Russia uses in China https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Last week this story emerged,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China, an official briefed on the talks said, contradicting Beijing’s public position of neutrality in the conflict. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl
If true the US would be well-served by helping to end rather than prolong this war
EDIT, the other problem with sanctions is that with time they effectively loosen as oil prices change and sanction-busting develops. The US hasn't changed sanctions since the last Biden-era changes
As it is, Trump's ambiguity gives some people an excuse to sit on their hands in the hope that America will still rescue the situation without them having to do that much themselves.
I don't tend to watch YT, but certain European countries are amongst the worst and have the most to lose. The further east you are the more the country seems to understand.
There's now a race to find the "best" way to invest the 1.5% of GDP set aside in the NATO 5% for national infrastructure. Italy's bridge to Sicily is the current winner for me https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-grand-plan-meet-nato-target-13-5b-bridge-sicily-donlad-trump-silvio-berlusconi-messina/
In a previous "up the defence spend to x% of GPD" I was tickled by Greece upping the pension contributions for the Armed Forces.
That ^ is quite imaginative, but if it helps with retention of trained personnel in the Greek forces, it seems perfectly reasonable.
The USA includes pensions in their defence spending, and NATO rules are set to allow for that:
"Retirement pensions made directly by the government to retired military and civilian employees of military departments and for active personnel is included in the NATO defence expenditure definition."
If you don't treat vets well, you don't get new signups.
If you can stand what is basically an hour-long Powerpoint presentation on the matter, Perun has a video about the NATO pledge.
The 3% increase is split equally between 1.5% for "core" military spending, and 1.5% for militarily useful stuff that isn't directly related to the military. Transport infrastructure is part of that, though unless there's a forecast for a significant need to move lots of NATO hardware between mainland Italy and Sicily then the Italian's bridge proposal might be seen as not following the spirit of the agreement.
Interestingly apparently the 1.5% increase on core military spending can be used on military aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine is a step away from withdrawing from the The Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention (aka several things including the Ottawa Convention) with just a vote to go. The paperwork is signed.
Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are also in the process of leaving while Lithuania and Finland are planning domestic production of anti-personnel landmines next year to supply themselves and Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/finland-lithuania-set-produce-anti-personnel-mines-officials-say-2025-07-09/
Russia and the US never signed up while the UK remains committed to the Convention (as of April, at least)
This Government remain committed to the Ottawa treaty and to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Each treaty plays an important role in the protection of civilians, and we continue to use our best efforts to promote the treaties and their norms. (Landmines and Cluster Munitions. Lords Chamber Volume 845: debated on Thursday 3 April 2025)
It looks like a huge incease in air strikes by a Russia are they trying to force an end game (for talks?)
To me it looks like the (almost) stalemate on the frontlines is not going down well in Moscow? Frustration? Desperation?
So they bomb and maime the ordinary people.
Looks as a few top people have been died in suspicious circumstances again in Moscow as well. Two of them reportably shortly after being sacked !
Its mid summer already.
Can the west shut the "grey" market down for the tech being sold and shame countries still trading with Russia?
Moscovites and Peterburgians are totally anesthesised from Ukraine - unless they get called up.
