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Re the drone jammer article. Much as I admire the bravery of the Ukrainians couldn’t they just have ripped the jammers off the tank & carried them back?
Russia lost another bomber. That’s a big, expensive piece of kit.
That's also an interesting post. The bomber was hit 300km from the frontline; Patriot has a max range of 160km
It was hit over Russia, which means that either the gloves are off on strikes on Russian territory using US missiles or Ukraine has developed a new tactic
The amendments that will be voted on are here for US aid to Ukraine... https://rules.house.gov/bill/118/hr-8035 (scroll down to amendments) Click on "Status" and 4x "Made in Order" made it to the debate, including one by MTG
Now click on "Sponsors" Scroll down to "Greene (GA)" She proposed amendments on persecution of Christians, bio-labs, a train derailment in E. Palestine, Ukraine to ban abortion, etc, etc.
While you're there have a look at amendments by "Moskowitz (FL)" Room 403 is the office of MTG and this one,
"Sense of Congress that Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) should be appointed as Vladimir Putin's Special Envoy to the United States Congress."
MTG famously told Emily Maitlis to F-off on the subject of space lasers
I think everyone's realised now that MTG doesn't have a cunning strategy or some other Machiavellian political end point, she's just monumentally stupid.
Patriot has a max range of 160km
Max 'official' range of 160KM, the USA has a long track record of significantly understating the capabilities of their systems as they like them to be a nasty surprise, so whilst there's no direct evidence it was a Patriot I wouldn't rule it out.
The long range of the missiles fired by Russian bombers has been an real problem for Ukraine as they generally fire them without entering into range of air defence systems and then head back to base, basically operating with impunity.
If Ukraine has managed to get anti-air systems into Russia to interdict these aircraft on their return to base (At which point Ukrainian intelligence will know where they are going and when, making them relatively easy to ambush if you can get a system into the area) that will be a whole new set of headaches for Russian command.
The use of long range air-launched glide bombs was proving to be one of Russia's most effective recent tactics, if Ukraine can start knocking out the bombers firing them on their return to base that will require a huge search effort across a vast swathe of Russia territory to find a small team of people who are probably very good at staying hidden.
Ukraine claiming they used an S200 system from 300kms away to shoot down the Tu-22M3 bomber. State used same approach as for the downing of the A50 AWACS last month. Must have something to do with the drone attack on the big radar site earlier this week?
Ukraine claiming they used an S200 system from 300kms away to shoot down the Tu-22M3 bomber. State used same approach as for the downing of the A50 AWACS last month
It's credible, the difficulty with the S200 is that the target has to be illuminated by an independent radar throughout, which you'd expect the A50 and the Tu-22 to detect, particularly at extreme range, and use counter-measures for what is after all a Russian system
Patriot's track-via-missile uses a general search radar and doesn't need radar lock in the same way, which makes it more difficult for an aircraft to detect a launch
Maybe some development has happened or maybe there's a system/training issue, much as we've seen with not dispersing aircraft on Russian airfields
Max ‘official’ range of 160KM
AIUI, the range of missiles varies a lot depending on the relative height and speed of the launcher and the target. It's obviously a bit simpler for surface to air missiles because the launcher is stationary and at ground level, but the range against a ground level target will be greater than a target at maximum altitude. Also, if the Russians have been flying predictable routes, the Ukrainian crews might be able to launch the missile while the target is out of range and time it so that the missile reaches the target during a very narrow window when it is in range. It's possible that the Russians have been briefly flying within range, firing their missiles, and then fleeing based on an assumption that the Ukrainians wouldn't have time to launch a missile before the Russians were out of range.
Where would that TU22 have been when it launched its missiles at Odesa? UKR or RU territory? Black Sea? Where was it based?
Its not really in ukraine's interest to reveal how they keep knocking russian planes out of the sky from what seems like unrealistic ranges, so I guess it will just be speculation for some time.
Those that know kit better than me, could it be air to air missles? With the removal of a significant chunk of radar and AA in crimea would it be feasible for them to start using their jets to counter
Or could man portable stuff hit, I'm guessing not, but its also feasible they could infiltrate russian controlled ground and wait for the planes to pass over if they know the usual pattern of attack
The Tu22 fleet operates from just inside Russia, at Soltsy Airfield. I think the Ukrainians have used drones to attack the airfield in the past and I think another Tu22 was destroyed on the ground there. It may not have even crossed the border to fire it's missiles, some of the long range versions are fire and forget.
I cant remember all the detail from the A50 shootdowns, its a clever and nuanced approach.
Something along the line that the Ukrainians attack radar installations (So this week the $100m Nebo-U long-range radar system in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, the big array 29B6 Container, amassive 700km range over-the-horizon radar in the Russian republic of Mordovia, the 5 ATACMS missiles used on the S400 missile and radar complex at Dzhankoi airfield). This creates gaps. They then use the Patriot radar to guide the S200s to the target which then lock on and by that time its too late as the S200s are really fast for an older missile.
I presume they are doing with the S200 launchers what they did with the Patriot launchers when they shot down the 5 aircraft in one day in Bryansk Oblast by sneaking launchers right up to the front line unobserved.
(TU22M3 isnt used for glide bombs, its used for Cruise and ALBMs - think they only have 60 working these days)
TU22M3 isnt used for glide bombs, its used for Cruise and ALBMs
I stand corrected on this particular aircraft.
Russia cant replace these radar systems so they are a huge loss. Its noteworthy that Ukraine focuses on these types of target whilst Russia is still wasting missiles largely targeting civilian targets. This will help F16s and I bet its not very long before they are used and the first we will hear is when Russian aircraft are shot down. Just trying to hang on to some optimism in all of the gloom.
Its noteworthy that Ukraine focuses on these types of target whilst Russia is still wasting missiles largely targeting civilian targets.
Yes. I think it's because Russia doesn't have precision guided weapons and good intelligence gathering so they are limited to easy to hit civilian targets. Ukraine gets targeting information from NATO so they can identify the key targets much more easily.
Yes. I think it’s because Russia doesn’t have precision guided weapons
Yes, I understand because they used them all up in Syria...precision bombing the general population
As much as I despise Mike Johnson, he deserves a tiny bit of credit for finally doing the right thing.
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1781559866441556103
Yes. I think it’s because Russia doesn’t have precision guided weapons and good intelligence gathering so they are limited to easy to hit civilian targets
Initially, Russia went after civilian targets because it's what they always do, e.g. the Second Chechen War, rebel-held Syria and now Ukraine. Russia acknowledged that 78000 civilians fled Chechnya for Ingushetia, which requested UN assistance with the influx, so the real number will be greater.
It was proved in WW2 to be a pointless tactic and it's illegal. The UN Security Council, including Russia, adopted Resolution 2573 condemning deliberate attacks against civilians and critical civilian infrastructure, which causes massive death, injuries, traumatises people and destroys property. Despite early warnings Russia has continued to pursue destruction https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113782
Now, in addition to the above, it's causing problems for Ukraine's economy and industry, which is why aid is so important. Ukraine's fledgling arms industry is important because it's their only way to strike targets inside Russia, more powerful western weapon use is generally restricted to Ukraine's borders.
Ukraine gets targeting information from NATO so they can identify the key targets much more easily.
Russia gets satellite imagery from China, as well as machine tools, electronics, etc https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-says-china-is-russias-primary-military-complex-supplier-2024-04-19/
TU22M3 isnt used for glide bombs, its used for Cruise and ALBMs – think they only have 60 working these days
It certainly isn't any more than 60, probably fewer, they'll also lose c40% (or more with sanctions) to repairs and maintenance.
The two KH22 missiles that each Tu-22M3 generally carries are anti-ship missiles and are particularly difficult to shoot down, so the ability to destroy the aircraft is a massive bonus for Ukraine. It appears that the destroyed aircraft had launched both of its missiles, but the one that turned back didn't.
The KH32 anti-ship cruise missile has a much longer range (1000km v 600km), but there will have been fewer made and the aircraft is a specific, less numerous, Tu-22M3M variant, which wasn't due for delivery until 2021
Russian Su-25 and Su-34 aircraft operating at low altitudes near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-19-2024
Chasiv Yar is what Russia is currently focused on, possibly throwing everything at it to gain the city by Victory Day (May 9). Sparse Ukrainian air defences, unfortunately
finally
Ukraine aid bill passed and all the russian stooge republican amendments failed!
I seriously doubt any military aid will make a difference now - there's no chance of taking back any ground and full nato integration is a pipe dream for Ukraine.
Putin will keep hold of his gains which is a failure firmly thrown at the doors of our western governments, Ukraine should have been given misses, jets, everything possible and call Putins bluff with his nuclear option at the beginning of the conflict.
Finally!
Whether you're optimistic about Ukraine's ability to win this thing or just think this will allow them to cling on, this is a huge deal.
The reason this package is so important and why its delay was so damaging is that the USA actually has the kit in it's possession and ready to send where as most of the EU aid is for deliveries far off into the future.
It's a good day for democracy, even though it should have come much sooner.
The reason this package is so important and why its delay was so damaging is that the USA actually has the kit in it’s possession and ready to send where as most of the EU aid is for deliveries far off into the future.
Is the kit sitting ready to be sent?, I've read today/just watched on C4 news that production will now begin and there is limited stock of shells that are ready for immediate delivery - it's a moot point anyway as Putin's goonsquad are cheap fodder for the front line and the only way forward/out of this is to cut Russia off from all world markets and isolate the country in the manner of North Korea.
Have we moved nearer the supply of fighter jets jet?, the pilots have been suitably trained now for months yet I haven't heard/read about any deliveries.
Somafunk - obviously this does not pave the way to easy Ukrainian victory, but it keeps them in the game and that is what they need for now. The only gains Russia has been able to make have been small and at enormous cost. If Ukraine can keep those gains small and the costs high (which this package can realistically do) then it puts Putin on the back foot in the long run.
Somafunk – obviously this does not pave the way to easy Ukrainian victory, but it keeps them in the game and that is what they need for now
No it doesn't, they need troops, tens of thousands of more troops as they are utterly worn out on or near the front line. Failing that then give them helicopter gunships, reaper drones, etc to utterly destroy the Russian moral - dribs and drabs won't help.
Have we moved nearer the supply of fighter jets jet?, the pilots have been suitably trained now for months yet I haven’t heard/read about any deliveries.
It isn't just a case of flying them over in formation, saying 'sign here' and handing over the 'ignition keys'!
There is a huge amount of work required to put all the spares packages in place, train the ground handling staff, the air frame and avionics technicians, armourers etc. To translate all the hundreds of technical publications into Ukrainian. To make sure hangars, refuelling and rearming kit is up to spec. Whilst western fighters like the F16 are very capable, they are a bit needy in terms of infrastructure requirements compared to former Warsaw pact kit. The deliveries are still within the original (realistic) time frames. We will see them flying before the summer is out, as was always the plan.
Helicopter gunship against modern fully equipped defenders will be out of action very quickly. Great against poorly trained and equipped conscripts or guerilla fighters . Not great against shoulder launched anti air or drones.
And if you think an F16 is tricky to keep flying, current gunships are even more demanding. Training takes years to perfect how to manoeuvre and utilise the weapons available safely.
All the Ukrainian army needs to do for now is to carry on with the same or increased levels of attrition across the front lines and to the rear.
No army had an infinite supply of tanks , guns , apc's, men and aircraft. Up arming the Ukrainians , whilst constantly diminishing the Russians hardware will make it very difficult for the Russian army to make and hold any territorial gains, especially now the mud has gone. Tracked vehicles can advance cross country avoiding mined roads . So we might see IFVs being deployed in hit and run strikes against Russian lines again.
blokeuptheroadFull Member
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It isn’t just a case of flying them over in formation, saying ‘sign here’ and handing over the ‘ignition keys’!
Yeah well that's bloody obvious, but there's been talk of sending modern jets for over two years, that's two years to get all the infrastructure in place, two years to get the pilots trained, two years for ground crew to be trained.
I'm just really ****ing pissed off with the political dithering and talk of kit being sent, there's been a Ukrainian/moldovan (Magda) and her two kids staying in my mums street in kirkcudbright for the past two years and my mums got to know them well and sees them for walks/coffee practically every day, her husband has been at/near the front line of the conflict for months and was very recently over here for a 3 week break and he looked absolutely shattered, just a walking shell of a human but determined to go back - no matter what happens to him.
Listening to him speak in stop/starts and watching his eyes as he attempted to get across just how horrific it has been a really ****ing tough listen, prob why I don't really contribute to this thread as the thought of him across there, with his family here is hard for my mind to take in.
Hey Somafunk, I get your frustration and I share it. There has been a huge amount of political dithering, no question. But in the case of fast jets, the timescales are not unrealistic, putting everything in place is way more complex and time consuming than many people imagine. It's actually only been 8 months, not 2 years since the transfer of Dutch and Danish F16s was formally approved and training etc. could begin. I am sure there are many hundreds of dedicated people working flat out behind the scenes to field them ASAP.
I wouldn’t underestimate the moral boost that this aid package will give.
Also the Russian economy is under pressure - high inflation of 8%, high interest rates of 16%, normally these two things don’t go together. Also the Ruble is trading at 94 to the $, another bad sign. They’ve banned the exports of refined petroleum products and income from oil exports has plummeted by 60%. The whole show is being supported by a massive increase in government expenditure- making things to be blown up in Ukraine, not the kind of investments that will help the the long term. Who will lend Russia money when their cash pile has been consumed in Ukraine?
For the last seven months since the last aid delivery from the US, Ukraine has not only held on, but inflicted massive casualties on Russia. How long can they continue to absorb the kind of daily losses like, 20 APC, 40 Trucks, 15 tanks, 20 artillery pieces and huge infantry losses.
I seriously doubt any military aid will make a difference now – there’s no chance of taking back any ground and full nato integration is a pipe dream for Ukraine.
Fueled +1
Not now, but it will. Ukraine will be at breaking point within months if not weeks otherwise and this aid is essential.
Who'd have thought that Ukraine would take back massive amounts of ground in 2022 when they liberated hundreds of cities and towns and thousands of square miles. It's clear that NATO won't take Ukraine on as a member now, but that too could change. At the 2023 Vilnius Summit a commitment was made to Ukraine to become a member of NATO.
Is the kit sitting ready to be sent?, I’ve read today/just watched on C4 news that production will now begin and there is limited stock of shells that are ready for immediate delivery
The mood changed in the US in the last week and their military machine has been preparing to send kit in advance of yesterday's vote. The US has stocks in Europe anyway.
The bigger problem is logistics in Ukraine, you can't just rock up with $60bn worth and get it to the hundreds of miles of frontline within days.
President Biden has the option of a Presidential Drawdown Authority and once the US Senate has approved the aid he can send whatever he wants up to the agreed $$$ off the shelf.
The manufacture is to backfill US stock, which has been languishing at lower than normal levels for months because of the MAGA nonsense
Have we moved nearer the supply of fighter jets jet?, the pilots have been suitably trained now for months yet I haven’t heard/read about any deliveries.
June, maybe??