Ukraine

it does seem like Trump is happy to let Putin be as brutal as possible to force Ukraine to agree to hand over its natural resources to the USA

US Pastor Mark Burns, President Trump's "spiritual advisor", visited Ukraine last week having previously backed Trump's decisions. On 6th April he tweeted,

Yesterday, a Russian missile struck Kryvyi Rih, killing 16, including 6 children. A tragic loss of innocent lives. The world must condemn this brutality and stand with Ukraine against such terror. Faith is a choice, not a feeling!

The Kyiv Independent ran this article on the 10th

When U.S. President Donald Trump paused military aid to Ukraine last month, the man described as his "spiritual advisor," Pastor Mark Burns, backed the decision.
This week, Burns is urging him to send Kyiv more tanks, fighter jets, and air defense.
"I now believe that supporting Ukraine is America first," he told the Kyiv Independent in an interview on April 9. https://kyivindependent.com/supporting-ukraine-is-america-first-trumps-spiritual-advisor-pastor-mark-burns/

He now needs to get through to Trump who thinks that Russia "made a mistake" when they struck a civilian area of Sumy with cluster munitions, killing 34 people.

It's interesting that he isn't talking about another example of President Trump's call for peace, as many in his inner circle do, but a call for arms

I'm not a Twitter-ist, but apparently Burns' TwitterX thread is gathering pace

It does appear that Trump is happy for Putin to be as brutal as he likes .. win/win for both Russia & USA to get all of Ukrainian resources.

And, here we go again.

Arm Ukraine further and Russia will escalate, with added Europe instigating war rather than peace talks spin

Merz, asked by German public broadcaster ARD on Sunday if he would supply Kyiv with Taurus missiles, said he would consider it if it were part of a wider package of support agreed with European allies.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters it was clear from his comments that Merz would advocate a "tougher position" which "will inevitably lead only to a further escalation of the situation around Ukraine". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-tough-line-merz-ukraine-risks-escalating-war-2025-04-14/

And more Trump blaming Zelensky for his role in starting all this 

Trump blames Zelensky for starting war after massive Russian attack https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5q0mev07lo

Posted by: timba

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Arm Ukraine further and Russia will escalate, with added Europe instigating war rather than peace talks spin

Looks like the Russian bots are targeting STW now too. I'm quite happy to pay more tax in order to support the supply of weapons to Ukraine. If Russia wins-- or more correctly, is appeased there, what's to say they won't keep trundling further west? Trump has already more or less proven that the Kremlin has him under control so the USA/NATO is really no longer a factor.

Russian bot?

If that's aimed at me my comment was irony, sarcasm, whichever.

Posted by: Fursty Ferret

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If Russia wins-- or more correctly, is appeased there, what's to say they won't keep trundling further west? Trump has already more or less proven that the Kremlin has him under control so the USA/NATO is really no longer a factor

Has always been the reason to support Ukraine.

Makes me laugh when Trump and Co pretend that Russias expansion is just a European problem. Too many flat earthers  haven't figured out how close Russia is to Alaska....

It's the other side of the map! Can't get any further away

Posted by: andrewh

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It's the other side of the map! Can't get any further away

🤣

Trump is clearly heavily pro-Russia. Ukraine whilst dependant on the continued USA military equipment Biden signed off, cannot realistically expect any more weapons whilst Trump is there (at best just the ones Biden agreed to) so just needs to drag the mineral deal negotiations on as long as possible in the hope Trump gets replaced or USA back channels promise to rip the deal up once Trumps term is up.

Trump etc are pure scumbags.

Trump is clearly heavily pro-Russia

anyone read this before, from 2021? I found it a couple of weeks back 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book

The ex-major recalled: “For the KGB, it was a charm offensive. They had collected a lot of information on his personality so they knew who he was personally. The feeling was that he was extremely vulnerable intellectually, and psychologically, and he was prone to flattery.

In other words, as thick as two short planks.

Variations have been around for years.

Google the Steele Dossier, the Mueller Dossier, etc.

President Zelensky is teaching the art of the deal

It's widely reported (from Bloomberg sources) that the hugely-inflated US $300bn bill is already down to $100bn and there's still a way to go on other aspects of the mineral agreement as well before it gets anywhere near a vote in Ukraine's Parliament

In the meantime Ukraine has made a $50bn US weapons order, paid for rather than aid, but its fulfillment isn't clear. Is this a "yes" or a "no"?

“I don't know. He's always looking to purchase missiles, you know. Listen, when you start a war, you've got to know that you can win the war, right? You don't start a war against somebody that's 20 times your size, and then hope that people give you some missiles.” President Trump

Other than parroting the Kremlin, how TF does the tangerine f***wit reckon Zelensky "started the war"?

Posted by: blokeuptheroad

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Other than parroting the Kremlin, how TF does the tangerine f***wit reckon Zelensky "started the war"?

By wanting to join NATO and the EU. How dare a country want to decide its own future...

So Ukraine is set to sign a “minerals deal”. But just what do they get out of it? There’s some suggestion of keeping the US side, but seriously, there is no evidence of the US being on any other side than Russias :/

It's the same deal the US forefathers signed with the native Americans and renamed the Thanksgiving.

I am hoping Zelensky is playing a clever game of merely dragging things out longer in the hope of receiving all the aid available from USA - maybe that's why Rubio saying they will throw toys out of pram and stomp away crying..

Why would Ukraine give USA anything knowing where their bias lays?

So much for ending the war in 24 hours.

Trump will walk away and blame everyone (well, Ukraine) for not getting his Knob-L Peace Prize. I'm hoping that if Ukraine do sign an agreement on minerals they get more than just gang raped by Trump and Putin. I'm not confident though.

On the deal, President Zelensky said on Wednesday 16th that the basics weren't yet in place

There are good results from the Ukrainian Government team working with the American side on the economic partnership agreement. First Deputy Prime Minister Svyrydenko delivered a report today on this. The basic legal aspects are almost finalized, and further, if everything moves just as swiftly and constructively, the deal will yield economic results for both our countries: Ukraine and the United States. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spravzhnij-nadijnij-mir-mozhe-buti-dosyagnutij-same-todi-kol-97257

I suspect that President Trump won't be signing a deal next Thursday. The official timeline was to finalise the wording by the 26th and then it'll have to go before Ukraine's Parliament.

Details are hard to come by, but the concept of security guarantees for Ukraine still isn't getting much coverage. One danger is that the US could just as easily make a mineral deal with Russia so it might have to be the best choice for Ukraine of not very good choices

Wouldn't put it past the Trump regime signing a deal with Russia for minerals in the occupied regions. What could the Ukrainians do then?

Posted by: Caher

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Wouldn't put it past the Trump regime signing a deal with Russia for minerals in the occupied regions. What could the Ukrainians do then?

Wouldn't put it past him either, but I'm not sure how that would play to his domestic audience. Outside the MAGA hardcore, stiffing a democracy to get minerals from an enemy state won't go down well with a lit of Americans. 

Outside the MAGA hardcore, stiffing a democracy to get minerals from an enemy state won't go down well with a lit of Americans.

President Putin has attempted to push President Trump down the path of a deal with Russia with his late offer of an Easter ceasefire for today only.

Attacks continued on Ukraine until minutes before the start, no doubt in the hope that Ukraine would retaliate within the ceasefire window so that Russia could show Ukraine as a bad-faith actor.

The plan fell apart with the astute Ukrainian admin pointing out that the one-day ceasefire could just as easily become 30 days (which Russia does not want) and because the memo from the Kremlin was so late that Russian troops didn't get the ceasefire message and violated their own undertaking

President Trump appears to be opening up to Ukraine purchases

£310mn in F16 training and support yesterday

$30bn. during FY2025

Range of sanctions against Russia for consideration by Trump

F16s have been photographed being loaded onto Ukrainian air freighters.

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F16s have been photographed being loaded onto Ukrainian air freighters

For spare parts or decoys, apparently. 

https://www.twz.com/air/f-16s-pulled-from-u-s-boneyard-are-being-delivered-to-ukraine-for-spare-parts

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3988918-diu-soldiers-destroy-russian-su30-using-magura-marine-drone-strike.html

Ukraine appear to have downed an SU-30 using a naval drone equipped with a SAM, somewhere in the Black Sea, a long way from Ukraine.

Russia is getting twitchy about the May 9th Victory Day parade in Moscow. They wanted a ceasefire for 8-10th, but Ukraine would only agree to a full 30 days

President Vucic, PM Modi and PM Fico have all decided to not attend now

I doubt that an attack will be made on the parade directly, but judging by the threats from Russia about Ukraine not existing on the 10th, something is in the wind

Just to add to the mix, President Trump has declared 8th May to be WW2 Victory Day in the US and a public holiday for the first time.

Deputy Chair Medvedev has called this announcement "pretentious nonsense"

All Zelensky has to do to disrupt the whole show is fly one drone across.... just one.

Putin's used the 'N' word again in his 25th year as a tyrant speech.

Posted by: Old and Past it

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Ukraine appear to have downed an SU-30 using a naval drone equipped with a SAM, somewhere in the Black Sea, a long way from Ukraine.

Reportedly two SU-30 have fallen to Magura-7 marine drones equipped with Sidewinder missiles https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/05/4/7510536/

The downing of a Russian Mi8 helicopter in December was by a Magura-5 fitted with Soviet Vympel R73 missiles, which also damaged a second helicopter.

Sea drones are vulnerable to helicopter attack, but not so much now

Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov looks pleased in the photo 🙂

Really useful APN analysis of the changing US position and their dawning realisation that it's far more complex than they thought. As a result, It's looking a lot more favourable for Ukraine than it was just a few weeks ago.  Despite Trump's innate affinity with Putin and dislike of Zelensky. Russian intransigence, skilful Ukrainian diplomacy, US public opinion, and a realisation that Ukraine still holds a decent hand of cards have all forced the US administration to be more supportive of Ukraine.  Not guaranteed to stay that way of course, but a better position than it might have been!

Ukraine has stepped up attacks in Kursk, despite Russian claims that Ukraine's forces have been expelled, and seems to be attempting to isolate Russian units around Tetkino, which would underline that Ukraine occupies Russian soil during this Victory week (see May 6th report) https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Moscow's four airports have all been closed at times during Tuesday and today following drone attacks there. President Xi is due to arrive in Russia today for the May 9th Victory Parade https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drone-attack-disrupts-moscow-airports-xi-visits-2025-05-07/

The inevitable increase in Moscow's air defences will make drone targets that if successfully prosecuted will decrease pressure on Ukraine's frontline aircraft operations. Russian bloggers have suggested that 280 additional units have been deployed

Ukraine will have to be careful that its plans for this week don't spark an adverse reaction from President Trump, should he feel that Russia's three-day ceasefire is a valid offer. He's already said in typically cryptic fashion, "As you know, President Putin just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot, if you know where we started from"

Oil prices are taking a battering in a problem of Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan's own making. They've been over-producing to increase revenue and won't compensate through lowering production. OPEC+ has authorised increased production for all of its members thus depressing oil prices from already low levels to their lowest levels since before the 2022 invasion.

We are down to cost of production pricing levels for some, i.e. no profit just cash flow

Really useful APN analysis of the changing US position and their dawning realisation that it's far more complex than they thought.

Everything is more complex than Trump can comprehend.

The Russians are in a bit of a flap as it gets closer to their victory day parade on 9th May.  The internet is down around much of Moscow, ATMs are not working and as Timba mentioned above planes are grounded at airports all over Russia following Ukrainian drone attacks. Their security worries are going to increase exponentially as the parade approaches, whether Ukraine does anything or not. And, if the parade goes ahead they will be celebrating 'victory' whilst Ukrainian troops still occupy parts of Russia. However tightly their state media tries to control the narrative, none of this will go unnoticed by ordinary Russians.

How three day special military operation going?

And the total number of troops Kia is apparently very close to the 1million mark.

Before you go all " but in ww2 they lost that many in a month.... Etc "

Totally different. Invaded by a well equipped army , huge territory loses, major cities in danger of being occupied. No choice but to throw the kitchen sink at the Germans. No need to keep it quiet , common enemy with less family ties. 

Not at all what is happening today.

I do wonder if they will keep the airport closed to avoid any friendly fire downing a jet . So if it's in the air , within say 50 miles of Moscow it's a legit target.

If I was a drone tech I would be developing drones using packet burst telemetry. So every day 15mins it switched on it's GPS for a fix , then immediately switch off and go dark , small course correction and fly on towards target. Then check at 2 mins out and  only go live for the last 30 seconds. Think a swarm of drones launched from a hot air balloon  ( altitude gets you range or , and bigger payload) would be lethal.

downing a jet

No need to even try IMHO. Moscow residents have nothing to fear but fear itself. Disruption could be the name of the game, especially as Moscow was lobbing missiles when heads of countries were visiting Kyiv. Seems reasonable to put a few drones over Moscow.

Posted by: singletrackmind

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So if it's in the air , within say 50 miles of Moscow it's a legit target.

Yeah, I would be phoning in sick if I was a airline pilot heading into Moscow over the next few days. Chances of accidently doing the aircraft equivalent of falling out of a window seems rather high.

So every day 15mins it switched on it's GPS for a fix 

GPS is receive only so switching it on wouldnt make any real difference for detection (I guess technically it would give a slightly higher electronic signature with additional chips being in play but going to be drowned out by my toaster a mile away).

I think GPS round Moscow is completely jammed now.

Looks like Vance is beginning to realise russia are the aggressor and the obstacle to peace.

Vance says Russia asking ‘too much’ in ceasefire talks with Ukraine
Trump says ‘it’s possible that’s right’ about the vice-president’s remarks amid frustrations with Russia

+1 TJ

There's a groundswell within the US expressing this from the electorate, through GOP Representatives, Senators and now the cabinet. Marco Rubio, as another example, has always been a Ukraine supporter.

There's one person who stills appears reticent...

Article about the future of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant https://thebulletin.org/2025/05/zaporizhzhia-hurdle-or-catalyst-for-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/

My thoughts are that it's simpler to decommission it and leave the complication out.