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Got a link?
Likewise.. as a follower of Forward Observation Group i'd be interested.
Just pick ANY russian propaganda account on Twitter...
Try Megatron_ron
Looks staged AF to me with some other footage added in,but as theres no way to identify who the prisoners are it could just be captured but unrelated footage.
Why anyone who doesn’t need to be there would go there is beyond me.
Well if they are mercenaries, presumably for money...
https://hir.harvard.edu/the-latest-in-a-long-line-ukraines-international-legion-and-a-history-of-foreign-fighters/
There are a variety of other reasons ranging from excitement, difficulty returning to "civvy street", etc. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/18/foreign-fighters-war-ukraine-volunteers/
Apply here... https://ildu.com.ua/ but it might be illegal
A video of Russians taunting and mock executing Ukr POWs.
Grim.
Last year in Spain I met a Belgian guy who was walking to Africa to go and help protect wildlife from poachers. He has spent something like eight months in Ukraine as a volunteer.
Massive respect, but he was a bit of a lost soul looking for purpose in life. Childhood spent in and out of state care, no parents. He said he ended up driving trucks behind the front line due to lack of any military experience.
Kind of a sad, yet uplifting guy....
Seems Russia is also playing games with GPS all around the Baltic. Is this proving / testing what they are capable of? Training? Just being arseholes?
No consequences for them for doing it, and that makes them look strong and the other side look weak.
A bit like all the obvious lying.
Re: jamming GPS, probably NATO ex Steadfast Defender, Google Quadriga 24.
Possibly aimed at disrupting that; provides NATO with realistic conditions, intel and good training
Russia has permanent GPS jamming around various sites such as the Kremlin; local drivers on GPS love it!
Russian Chief of the General Staff, General Gerasimov has reappeared in public; he hadn't been seen since December and was rumoured to have been killed in the 4th Jan strikes on Crimea.*
While this would have been a propaganda coup, his death would have been a blow to Ukraine
"Not only did Shoigu and Gerasimov plan and conduct the invasion of Ukraine with monstrous incompetence, recklessness and indifference to civilian deaths and suffering, but since they have both held their present positions since 2012, they bear direct personal responsibility for the logistical chaos, lack of coordination, and generally lamentable condition of the Russian armed forces." Anatol Lieven June 2023 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/25/putin-disastrous-but-indispensable-for-the-system-he-created/
In July 2023 he sacked Major-General Popov, the leader of the one of the strongest Russian units in Ukraine, because Popov made strong representations about leadership failing their forces https://www.dw.com/en/russian-general-dismissed-after-criticizing-leadership/a-66237138
* https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024
Blow to Ukraine?
You mean Russia?
#confused
Aha.... Makes sense in a roundabout kinda way.
Supposedly another Russian jet has been downed and there are train loads of old T-62 tanks arriving in Crimea.
It seems things are more and more asymmetric. In that Russia is focussed / more able to throw resources and men into mass ground operations, but Ukraine is picking of high value and strategic targets bit by bit.
Long term will this leave the Russian ground forces 'alone' without cover from air or missiles?
I assume provide opportunity for air and missiles to be increasingly possible and arrive on target?
And I presume these really old tanks appearing shows that despite making more new things than expected, Russia is running low on resource?
Morning catchups on this thread....
I'm thinking my Twitter feed is changing again. Russia MFA seem to be posting more about diplomatic meetings and alliances... maybe to do with the run up to Putins non-event reinstatement and turning the volume down on the war...
Macron seems to have stirred things up with a suggestion of Nato peacekeepers and America, you really need to get your act together
Without enough soldiers, artillery & ammo Ukraine will be in trouble despite their success in the air.
Being a russian pilot getting in your plane knowing that they've been losing 1 a day for 10 days must be sobering
but it seems that Russia is getting bolder and attacking further over the frontlines, meanwhile Ukraine hasnt been resupplied in Patriot missile since Dlast year (f-ck the GOP)
Ukraine is picking of high value and strategic targets bit by bit.
The question is for how long? Without replacements/increases in air defences Ukraine will struggle, do they prioritise drone and missile attacks on cities or Russian aircraft? Do they move a limited number of launchers to the front lines or to the cities?
And I presume these really old tanks appearing shows that despite making more new things than expected, Russia is running low on resource?
Russia is able to import vastly more materiel than Ukraine, despite sanctions. There are various discussions about the quality of some of the artillery shells, for example, but drones, missiles and ammunition are getting through with monotonous regularity. Russian manufacturing alone isn't replacing losses, despite being on a war footing, and as Russia is discovering you can't import everything. If they had armoured vehicles in reserve then they could have followed the capture of Avdiivka up by rapid manoeuvring and really caused the retreating Ukraine forces some problems
I've said before that Ukraine can't fire promises and unfortunately Europe is full of them; they should have delivered 1mn shells by now and haven't. The collective "west" has had two years to sort itself out and hasn't
IMHO Russian strategy is clinging on and hoping for Donald Trump to be elected. The US aid package is critical
crossed with kimbers
There's an article here from 2022 that underlines Donald Trump's approach to politics. He seems to be in transactional business mode, "you provide this and I'll provide that" and doesn't see much beyond. It also partly explains his antipathy to aid for Ukraine
"Charles Kupperman, then serving as deputy national security adviser, accused his former boss of being incapable of understanding global politics and the importance of Ukraine. For him, Kupperman said, it was all personal." https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-thrown-into-rage-by-subject-of-ukraine-former-aide-2022-4?r=US&IR=T
It isn't a long article and is worth two or three minutes. Charles Kupperman issued a lawsuit against subpoena in Trump's 2019 impeachment and didn't give evidence, so this is an interesting insight. The Republican-heavy US Senate acquitted Trump on that occasion
Another SU34 shot down 👍
What's with the sudden flush of plane downings? Better tech / radar / new weapon?
Russia flying more and more sorties?
see the forbes article above
Ukraine getting better/ braver at using patriots/Sam's at the front and Russia attacking more over the battlefield (I suspect Putin is pushing for a big victory before his election)
Unfortunately manpower & ammo shortages mean that Ukraine is going to really struggle against Russia throwing waves of men in the ground offensive
Another SU34 shot down
Make that two for today!
Ukrainian use of drones is becoming increasingly sophisticated, especially using ‘Baba Yaga’ drones controlling drone swarms to get greater range from kamikaze drones.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28771
A Russian Pantsir S1 AD truck overturned in Sochi yesterday. Saves Ukraine's forces a job... https://www.newsweek.com/video-shows-russian-air-defense-topple-over-minutes-after-putin-warns-nato-1874608 (C1 is the Russian language designation)
Unpopular Chancellor Scholtz's latest excuse for not sending Taurus cruise missiles is that German boots would need to be on Ukraine's soil to program them.
He annoyed the UK and France by implying that they had advisors in Ukraine programming ScalpEG and Storm Shadow, which was ill-timed with President Putin's latest threats of "tragic" consequences should "western" troops be deployed there https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-slammed-claims-france-uk-help-ukraine-target-missiles/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1331259/olaf-scholz-evaluation-as-chancellor-germany/
Supposedly another jet, a SU-34,was downed yesterday.....
That's 13 in two weeks.
Sod being a Russian pilot.
I know there was some political advantage to doing it but it seems odd that the Kremlin broadcast it's Luftwaffe infiltration, perhaps the Germans knew they'd been compromised and plugged the leak 😕
snip...it seems odd that the Kremlin broadcast it’s Luftwaffe infiltration
It's not a great intelligence coup. The conversation was ill-advisedly held on a public video conference network, Webex, rather than an official secure network
snip...perhaps the Germans knew they’d been compromised and plugged the leak 😕
Germany has problems with some politicians and intelligence employees being affiliated with Russia. Some of those compromised have access to top secret info, e.g. Markus Reichel (2014), Carsten L, the head of a BND unit monitoring phones and internet, and Arthur E (both 2022) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66727785
It suits Russia's aim to influence western politicians, is in line with President Putin's latest threats of "tragic" consequences and gives Chancellor Scholtz more reason not to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine
Newsmax, one of the most trusted conservative news outlet for Republicans, has joined the fray and asked for funding to go to Ukraine. US Speaker Mike Johnson and Donald Trump are being turned on by their most trusted media outlets...
"Ruddy: Mike Johnson, Allow Vote on Ukraine Aid" (Christopher Ruddy started Newsmax and is an influential voice in US conservative media)
"At the same time Israel is facing war on multiple fronts.
Israel, like Ukraine, desperately needs funding."
https://www.newsmax.com/ruddy/ruddy-ukraine-speaker-mike-johnson/2024/03/03/id/1155754/
Can someone give a brief synopsis of the last three, rather cryptic, posts....?
It's late and I've had enough of the internet for one day.
But here's an interesting article (use translate, mes amis) about why so many Russian jets are falling from the sky...
another one
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1764908176850182244?t=K02Ow86OfQBYMfyjUKNCJg&s=19
Incredible still that a country with no effective navy is taking out what was supposedly one of the most powerful navies in the world...
The demise of the Sergey Kotov was forecast in July
Sergey Kotov might not survive her foray into the southern Black Sea. In the meantime, however, she might be just enough of a threat to spook shipping companies and enforce a blockade of Ukraine’s grain ports.
IMHO Russian strategy is clinging on and hoping for Donald Trump to be elected.
Seems to be working so far. Probably a better strategy than Ukraine's which is clinging on and hoping for a non-senile POTUS and a German Chancellor with morals and backbone.
Seems to be working so far. Probably a better strategy than Ukraine’s which is clinging on and hoping for a non-senile POTUS and a German Chancellor with morals and backbone.
Phillips P. O'Brien and others write about the return of Cold War Disinformation and Reflexive Control "a Soviet concept for conveying specific information to a target to induce a predetermined decision, which is the theoretical underpinning for Russian influence and information operations." https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/15364-diane-chotikul-soviet-theory-reflexive
Some people, like Chancellor Scholtz, are susceptible. Others, like Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, aren't taken in. She was the first "western" leader to be placed on Russia's wanted list and continues to be forthright, e.g. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/
The Russian Navy has always been a bit of a paper tiger.
It was bad in Soviet times and has got worse since.
Have a read up on the state of their "aircraft carrier".
"Current projections are that the overhaul of the carrier will last into 2024.[12][77][86] "Ship repairmen warned the military that the condition of Admiral Kuznetsov does not allow it to be deployed due to the high probability that it would sink or capsize. During the examination, it was revealed that the metal structures below the third deck of the ship were significantly corroded. The holds are filled with muddy water, which makes it impossible to examine the ship in detail from the inside.""
Some people, like Chancellor Scholtz, are susceptible. Others, like Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, aren’t taken in.
Thing is, Scholz has loads of weapons he could send; Kallas doesn't. So what she thinks is neither here nor there.
Simon Jenkins seems to be susceptible to reflexive control too,
"An intercepted meeting on sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine suggests the west is on the brink of a risky and futile escalation"
"Instead Ukraine has come to seem ever more like a Nato mercenary for western generals wanting to boost their budgets and relive the cold-war games of their youth" https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/05/nato-ukraine-russia-germany-military-leak
I think he'll find that Ukraine is fighting for its very existence and has reached the bottom of European arms reserves
Western Europe has no conceivable interest in escalating the Ukraine war through a long-range missile exchange...snip...it has no strategic interest in Kyiv’s desire to drive Russia out of the majority Russian-speaking areas of Crimea or Donbas.
It isn't an escalation, it makes more rearward areas of occupied Ukraine open to the disruption of Russian materiel and logistics that are supporting Russia's invasion.
Crimean airfields, ships and the Kerch bridge are all legitimate targets and most certainly are of strategic interest, which is why Russia has had forces in Sevastopol since 1783