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Sadly I think quite a few of the MAGA crowd are rather in favour of boots stamping on faces because they think they'll be the ones wearing the boot.
The question is, how on earth are Russians getting hold of Starlink and using it on the front line?
Same reason that Navalny's widow's Twitter account was taken offline after his death and people were prevented from even searching for it.
Elon's being Elon.
The question is, how on earth are Russians getting hold of Starlink and using it on the front line?
Elon’s being Elon
Is there a credible news report about this? Sounds like something I should be writing to my MP about to suggest sanctions should be implemented against Starlink and him personally.
I thought at some point, Starlink were accused of throttling the speed of the Ukrainian Starlink services, if they can do that, then…….. 🤷♂️
Same reason that Navalny’s widow’s Twitter account was taken offline after his death and people were prevented from even searching for it.Elon’s being Elon.
Should we expect Cybertrucks on the frontline next? And a massive tunnel running under the border?
It’s believed to be a third-party acquisition, which Starlink can’t identify.
Ah, ok, so not Elon being Elon, but hackers being hacky. I'm no fan of Mr Musk, reckon he's a good candidate for being a true bond villan in some version of the future, but benefit of the doubt this time.
I'm sure he'll be mighty relieved. 😁
How is Starlink meant to tell the difference between a Ukrainian base station near the front line and a Russian one? Are they meant to have fine grained location info (in an area with GPS jamming) and an up to date map of the front line?
Stopping Russians getting technology of all sorts is the way to sort this. Chinese and UAE banks closing Russian accounts is part of this but there needs to be renewed effort to stop the intermediaries involved. This isn't a new problem, the USSR had a massive program during the cold war to acquire western technology.
And a massive tunnel running under the border?
Speaking of tunnels, I gather that tunnels dug under enemy trenches and filled with explosive were a big thing back in WW1. Is there a reason we haven't seen that in Ukraine? Is no man's land too wide in the modern version of trench warfare? Nobody expecting positions to remain as static as they have turned out and so it was assumed not worth the effort? Are there no good digging machines? (I'm guessing that Ukraine has better uses for soldiers than tunnelling)
How is Starlink meant to tell the difference between a Ukrainian base station near the front line and a Russian one
For a non-tech person I assume that they can compare a list of MAC codes, IMEI numbers, whatever, for equipment supplied; 123456789012345 was supplied to a Mr al-Assad in Syria and active in Ukraine, hmmm
If that isn't the case then please educate me cos I dunno
Is there a reason we haven’t seen that in Ukraine?
A few main reasons:
There's a world-wide shortage of some explosives
Digging silently is slow and it attracts enemy action if detected, which made the WW1 tunnellers an unpopular addition to the frontline. Anyone with a stick can hear movement underground
When the frontline moves forward you can't keep up
I gather that tunnels dug under enemy trenches and filled with explosive were a big thing back in WW1.
That's why they are called "mines".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Crater
Not much point using all the manpower and effort for a limited one-off strike, when they can just do what they do now and use drones as disposable weapons delivery systems. Relatively cheap, quick, accurate. Drones have also become effective anti-tank weapons.
Saw a video the other day of a drone finishing off an abandoned Russian tank, and it neatly dropped a charge through the open hatch and the ammo went up. Better than exposing personnel to get closer with a more expensive anti-tank weapon.
Just catching up, 7 more planes?! Surely Russia has got to start running out of them soon. Or is it like the missles, everyone keeps saying they will run out, but somehow they dont appear to be.
"For a non-tech person I assume that they can compare a list of MAC codes, IMEI numbers, whatever, for equipment supplied; 123456789012345 was supplied to a Mr al-Assad in Syria and active in Ukraine, hmmm"
Agreed, but it was probably sold to a random person in a non-sanctioned country using money provided by an intermediary. They hand it over to the intermediary to get their $50, the intermediary puts it in a container filled with "machine parts", puts it on a ship to another country where it's then forwarded on to Russia, perhaps via Iran. All Starlink knows is that Mr Nobody in an unremarkable country bought a Starlink with full roaming licence. Finding Mr Nobody might not be too hard (provided the country where he lives co-operates and that he's not using a stolen identity) but there are loads of people like Mr Nobody to take his place for $50. You need to go up the chain of intermediaries and break it near the top as you can. This isn't easy otherwise drug smuggling and money laundering wouldn't be a problem.
make that 8 planes...
and not just any old one
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1761080881970647199?t=0k3UOiiFu20slNiT6ehDgw&s=19
Incredible that admitting to the incompetence of repeatedly losing A-50s to friendly fire, is less embarrassing than losing them to Ukrainian action!
love the background rave music 🙂 country at war but hell we'll still party ! 🙂
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Another A-50!!!
Losing one is supposed to be a once in a blue moon screw-up on a biblical scale, to lose 2....
It's not just the kit, it's the fact that these are basically a flying military intelligence bases and usually packed to bursting with officers and their most highly skilled personnel.
By my calculations they will only have 3 of these left operational.
1 will be needed to cover Vladivostok, so that leaves 2, 1 if they want to cover the Baltic as well.
Ukraine continues to tick off boxes on the big 'I want to go on the offensive using air assets' check list.
Who's threatening Vladivostok?
Ukraine continues to tick off boxes on the big ‘I want to go on the offensive using air assets’ check list.
That does seem to be the direction of travel...
We just really, really need the wider military supplies or US and others to kick in.
Just reading some more - a few rumors/suggestions that this may be air to air missiles....
....from F16...
🤔
If it is the first use of the F16's then that's a more than acceptable debut but I doubt it, I reckon we have at left another 3 months before we see those.
If I was to place a bet right now I'd say it was another victim of Ukraine's recent wheeze when they sneak a patriot battery right up to the front and switch it on in an area where the Russians think their air assets are safe, down a plane then scarper.
It's a gloriously offensive way to utilise something that was donated for 'defence' and a wonderful bit of lateral thinking but its certainly effective. I'm sure the NATO field manuals are being updated as we speak.
Do they have that kind of range though? It's some 160 miles from the front, iirc?
Officially up to 180 KM depending on which version of the missile they're using. Unofficially... who knows?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot
unconfirmed atm
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1761140108453888041?t=BbpoMt2wUARNypvMH1SraA&s=19
It strikes me that despite the relatively static front line, Ukraine is 'winning' elsewhere. No, we did not see the breakthrough that everyone hoped for on the ground last year. But in terms of asymmetric warfare elsewhere, Ukraine has the upper hand it seems to me. Clever tactical use of limited AD assets to destroy high value Russian kit like AWACS and dozens of their best fast jets. Surface drones to sink multiple warships and a submarine. The Kerch bridge attack and sabotage attacks across Russia. Even attacks on Wagner in Africa. All this is hurting and embarrassing Russia. I'm sure they've got more innovative stuff up their sleeves too. I hope so.
that steel plant damage will hurt the Russian arms industry
The Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (Russian: Новолипецкий металлургический комбинат) is a Soviet and Russian metallurgical plant located in the Left Bank district of Lipetsk. The largest steel plant in Russia and the 17th in the world in terms of production in 2018.[1]
Even attacks on Wagner in Africa.
This has been really interesting. UKR doing an impressive job of force projection as you say.
Re the UKSF blocking ANSF applications, always in the fence about these things. Very easy to throw stuff into the public arena about those sorts as they usually refuse any sort of comment.
But Johnny Mercer has been critical of them, the MOD and Wallace re being left exposed when answering questions in the house, seems they all knew about allegations of UKSF targeting fighting aged males irrespective of hostile action and let him issue denials regardless.
Don't know if the smoke is from that particular fire, but there's something off about the whole thing.
As a side and as uncomfortable as it may be for some they do operate in a very different place to conventional forces and having former allies living in the UK who are under no restrictions to speak might lift a lid on that world, an exposure they'd want to control irrespective if actions were legal or illegal.
Agree. On the face of it, it does seem a bit shit, but these things are always more complex than a media snapshot suggests. There is an element too of some organisations (like SF) not being able to tell their side of the story due to all sorts of sensitivities, so we get a skewed view of the reality.
Having said that, I am very uncomfortable (to say the least) about the earlier reporting alleging very questionable targeting. There is a definite whiff of something unpleasant, but like most of us I don't have enough info to draw any firm conclusions. I just hope they do everything possible to investigate and if the worst allegations are proven to hold people to account. For justice most importantly but also to restore reputation, effectiveness and morale.
Apols for going off topic, bit of a side discussion with RM which I started. Back to Ukraine...
What do we think they used to hit the steelwork factory with?
Storm Shadow?
Glide bomb?
Drone. Attacks?
Special Forces operating locally?
I'm not totally convinced fast jets will make a big impact. They will help but against a large , dug in force , clearing the enemy is a big ask .
The biggest role for F-16 is keeping the VKS back from their glide bomb operations on the front line.
An interesting bit of crystal ball gazing into what might happen in the war over the coming year, with an optimistic and pessimistic scenario.
depressing reading here tbh
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1761453249180168647?t=vH6AG4BjnWOiYKZBbwswyg&s=19
Losing one is supposed to be a once in a blue moon screw-up on a biblical scale, to lose 2….
It's not just the loss of hardware. The Beriev A50 requires a crew of fifteen mostly highly trained people, replacing them is going to take years.
It's easy to think that it's simply a case of replacing hardware, but the dwindling subject matter expert human capital resource isn't easy to fill. Remember that in one month Russia has lost thirty key AWACS crew and their combined experience.
Honestly, I hate the very idea of war and loss of life. One day someone will declare a war and noone will be bothered to turn up.
I thought the same recently regarding the planes destroyed and the loss of their trained crew. Will there be a point where experienced pilots and crew become a problem rather than a loss of hardware?
Anyone seen the video of American mercenaries captured by the russians? It is doing the rounds on twitter. Why anyone who doesn't need to be there would go there is beyond me.