Ukraine

Thing is, Scholz has loads of weapons he could send; Kallas doesn’t.

Practically speaking, but that isn't for want of trying:

• Estonia is the highest donor by %, at 3.6% bilateral aid + 0.5% EU aid
• Germany at 0.6% bilateral aid + 0.5% EU aid
• https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

So what she thinks is neither here nor there.

What a strange thing to say. Without her mindset and contributions Ukraine would be worse off

Admiral Kusnetsov is a complete dog. It also keeps catching fire. Interestingly, China's two carriers are based on the Kusnetsov. First one is built from the uncompleted hull of it's sister ship (Left unfinished in Ukraine when Soviet Union collapsed), second one is a 'new' one built from the same design. Nothing to bother a nuclear powered US carrier!

Ukraine's naval strategy is a very good one, as Russia can't easily replace the lost ships like-for-like due to the restrictions from the Montreux convention on the Turkish Straights. So Russia either has to build new ones in a black sea shipyard, or transport small vessels via inland waterways. I'd imagine the latter would be incredibly risky, providing a sitting duck target for long range weapons or behind the lines drones.

Incredible still that a country with no effective navy is taking out what was supposedly one of the most powerful navies in the world…

Ukraine has an incredibly effective navy, just not in our traditional Aircraft carrier way of thinking. This is becoming a bit like UK Battleships v Japanese airpower at the start of WW2.

That Sergey Kotov is one of the newest Russian ships so a big loss because of its advanced radar more than its missile launchers. More Ukraine chess moves to blind Russia?

But from the footage that "Advanced Radar" didn't seem very effective.

My guess is that it wasn't working and/or operated correctly.

Didnt the attack happen at the same time as an airborne drone attack, so probably planned that way, so boat was looking up for drones?

Perun did a very interesting video on the economics of the war and it's sustainability this week.

TLDR:

• Both parties are tired but not exhausted and both are a long way from achieving their stated goals so we can expect no negotiated peace in the short-medium term.
• Reduced European arms stocks and the log-jam in Congress has temporarily handed Russia the material advantage.
• They are however, still burning through their Soviet era reserves at a incredible rate.
• Putin has also burned through over half of the entire Russian sovereign wealth fund and is emptying it faster every month due to the weakness of the Ruble and the fact many of their suppliers now want paying in Gold.
• By the end of 2024 enough European and NATO production will have come on online that the material advantage should swing back towards Ukraine as Russian's stockpiles dwindle.
• 2024 is likely to  be very tough for Ukraine, especially if the useful idiots in Congress continue to hold up aid.
• But if they can hold out, all trends point to the pendulum swinging back their way in 2025.

But from the footage that “Advanced Radar” didn’t seem very effective.

My guess is that it wasn’t working and/or operated correctly.

is the problem, not that these drones are so low profile, they cant be distinguished from the waves?

Ill ask my brother -in-law if his ship ever gets back from the red sea

They’ll have to surround ships with massive cope cages 🫣

They’ll have to surround ships with massive cope cages

Nothing new there.

Ship mounted torpedo nets got invented not long after the torpedo and were used on and off up until the end of WWII.

Royal navy ship with one.

I have never operated a military radar.

I have operated a lot of different marine civilian radars.

A good set up can detect quite small targets, fishing floats, small boats etc. Yes if the sea is rough it makes a massive difference to what you can see but even with those sets, the skill and experience of the operator can make a massive difference.

In the video, the sea is pretty calm. I would expect to see a target off that size on a "normal" radar. However, for a target system to track it and destroy it, who knows?

I would think they would lose track of them once they get close and in their radar blind sectors.

Also, maybe their radars are primarily air defence?

All just guesses on my part.

I agree with that. Similar civilian radar experience,  which I guess are nothing near as good as what that ship was supposed to be carrying. The sea drones are semi-submersible though and seem to be incredibly successful. Attack was 3-400 miles away from their base as well.

Boffins have to be working on something similar to those cope cages from ww2.  Maybe a ring of anti drone drones, small and carrying a big net.  Thing is, it'll only stop the first couple of enemy drones.  The answer has to be something that will knock out their comms / guidance so the pilots cant see or loose control.   Is EMP a real thing or just something out of matrix?

  Is EMP a real thing or just something out of matrix?

Well when I was at  Foulness there was an EMP generator at Aldermaston for testing kit. We did all the blast and thermal tests but they did that

You want to test how a plane responds to an EMP blast from a nuke for instance? You need need to build this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATLAS-I

Kallas doesn’t

Maybe, but one thing does they do have is a very competent force of trained, motivated and experienced operators. Especially in unconventional warfighting that are highly likely contributing to the training of UKR troops and as a wider network of parties learning about RU capabilities for their own defensive aims and contributing and/or facilitating the development of UKR as a highly competent force.

A mutually agreeable set of terms of I imagine. The joy of a coalition of support is everybody pitches in and brings something to the table.

Your reductive mindset doesn't add value.

Practically speaking, but that isn’t for want of trying:

Estonia is the highest donor by %, at 3.6% bilateral aid + 0.5% EU aid

If only percentages could be put into an artillery piece and fired at someone

Maybe, but one thing does they do have is a very competent force of trained, motivated and experienced operators. Especially in unconventional warfighting that are highly likely contributing to the training of UKR troops and as a wider network of parties learning about RU capabilities for their own defensive aims and contributing and/or facilitating the development of UKR as a highly competent force.

I suspect the Ukrainians would rather just have a load of missiles.

I suspect the Ukrainians would rather just have a load of missiles.

I suspect, from a position of understanding, they'd want both.

If only percentages could be put into an artillery piece and fired at someone

That's why the US log jam is proving so painful, the EU funding is vital long term but the great thing about the US aid is that they have these enormous reserves  in storage all round the world and the air lift capacity to move them so if congress approves a bill promising 100,000 more artillery shells for Ukraine they can be there next week.

There's tons of stuff in the pipline for Ukraine,(hence why 2025 onwards should be a much more optimistic period for them) but they could really use some of that kit NOW.

on the subject of drones...

https://twitter.com/pinstripedline/status/1765110849016840539?t=NIRTPvGkKLtCnmB6yBz_RQ&s=19

on the subject of drones…

This is not surprising. That in and of itself is disappointing. *sigh

If only percentages could be put into an artillery piece and fired at someone

I often find myself thinking that at work.

Wrt the capabilities of the Russian ship radars…… One thing we’ve learnt since the end of the Cold War is the massive gap between Russian claimed capabilities and reality. Add in the fact their exercises are all basically military theatre, with every move known and choreographed, the outcome of recent naval and aviation encounters is not a surprise.

One thing we’ve learnt since the end of the Cold War is the massive gap between Russian claimed capabilities and reality.

And also that Ukraine seems to be much more effective at using Russian gear than Russia is.

did someone say escalation?

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1765376671627067686

tbh I'm surprised they aren't pulling out all the stops to assassinate zelensky, or is there some rule in war that the leader is not allowed to be targeted?

Going on about how close it was to the Greek group... what about Zelensky? How close was it to him?

150-200 metres is quite far assuming it was a (somewhat) precise drone attack rather than something like artillery.  The Greeks were probably quite safe practically speaking although yes it's a bit risky (and must've been scary!). Just wondered how close they got to the actual target.

I'm sure being 150 metres from, a Russian missile strike felt neither 'safe' nor 'far' for those involved.

So far it looks like it was just 'Russians lobbing missles in the usual fashion' rather than a decapitation strike but man, if it had hit the Greek PM's party.....

It wouldn't have triggered anything from NATO or the EU as we're collectively spineless unts (c), individually quite good though.  Would have been lots of "strong words", but that's it.

Would have been lots of “strong words”, but that’s it.

I think you misunderestimate the tsunami of thoughts & prayers that would also erupt

and sanctions, dont forget the sanctions against Ivan....the bloke in Crimea that happens to own 4 rental apartments and a merc.

Yes, you're right, nothing short of a pre-emptive first strike would be appropriate.

Amazing how this thread has been largely informative then three posts appear dragging the thread down.

Well, I can only speak for myself and I'm pretty bloody frustrated at the collective EU/US response to the invasion(s), thousands of deaths, and Ukraine's repeated pleas for help. Sadly, I don't have the ear of any of the decision-makers involved so I'm reduced to simply being cross about it.

If only percentages could be put into an artillery piece and fired at someone

You can, but only out of 100mm so not a large enough calibre to be useful

I’m sure being 150 metres from, a Russian missile strike felt neither ‘safe’ nor ‘far’ for those involved.

Depending on how the blast was obstructed and the type/weight of warhead used, etc, lethal fragments could have travelled a few hundred metres. Blast waves can reach further still to cause injuries

Russia attacked Ukrainian cities a couple of times in 2022 when "western" leaders visited but I'm not sure that they're specifically targetted.

Five fatalities from today's attack, sadly, who would otherwise have been ignored by most international media. I'm still working out my feelings on the perceived hierarchy of victims

Personally I think that a lot of instability around teh globe will only calm down when Putin dies. And frankly, the sooner the better and ideally if it can be arranged, before November.

I really wish I could understand some of the EU leaders thinking re "escalation" when clearly Putin will keep rolling and pushing, pushing , pushing...spinning the whole debacle out to November and the cluster **** that probably will unfold in the US.Yesterday, Twitter was suggesting Elon may be supporting Trump's 350m fines as his plane was tracked to Mar-a- Largo plus all the whataboutery that goes with that.

Where are the planes? Taurus to drop the Kerch bridge, the million shells.... the collective, unified and unambiguously determined gloves off support from NATO...

Personally I think that a lot of instability around teh globe will only calm down when Putin dies

I try to never celebrate anyone's death but I'm going to make an exception if I live to see Putin's. And Trump's.

Is there still not a concern over who replaces Pootin and that they may be even madder?

Putin has spent the last 15 years systematically purging  anyone that may challenge his supreme rule.

As a result the Russian system has been largely cleansed of anyone with the right mixture of competence and ambition to succeed him.

Such systems don't tend to handle succession well. We may get someone even madder and badder but will they have the requisite backroom political skill to keep all the varying factions and kleptocrats in line.

Fair point. And I suspect that many of the ex Soviet states would spend the time off any Pootin funeral to work out how they would capitalise on the situation.

Jamie Raskin (Dem) and Robert Garcia (Dem) of the US Congress Committee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs (a sub-Committee of Oversight and Accountability) are pressing Elon Musk's "SpaceX over Russia's reported use of Starlink in Ukraine, saying that recent developments raise questions about SpaceX's "compliance with US sanctions and export controls.""  https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/03/spacex-pressed-by-lawmakers-over-russias-use-of-starlink-in-ukraine/

Finland has found a French businessman guilty of breaching sanctions on exports to Russia. "Of the 31 cases, the prosecutor dropped 4 while the court found Temin guilty of 2 and dismissed 25, including the drone case for lack of evidence.
In the two cases in which Temin was found guilty, the court said he falsified the destination of sanctioned German tools by reporting they were headed to Kazakhstan instead of St. Petersburg in Russia, where Siberica's own documents showed they eventually ended up." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finnish-court-rules-french-businessman-guilty-breaching-russia-sanctions-2024-03-07/

Germany has extended its trusteeship of Russia's Rosneft facilities in Germany. This prevents Rosneft selling its share to another company; Shell and Eni are current co-owners with Rosneft
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/germany-extends-rosneft-trusteeship-russian-oil-giant-seeks-buyer-sources-2024-03-07/

There are loads of clips of drone footage on Twitter.

What I don't understand is why there are so many isolated Russian soldiers?

There is 1 clip that shows 2 Russian infantrymen assault a Ukrainian position.

Surely you would need a few more than that?

There's also a clip, I wished I hadn't watched, of a lone soldier slowly dying after a drone attack. Today he was identified as a Company Commander in Spetsnaz. WTF would he be by himself in the frontlines?

I also saw that video yesterday. Pretty grim.

Because the mental Russian army have regressed back to ww1 mentality. Hoping the Ukrainian army runs out of bullets before Russia runs out of men.
And they use sacrificial units to reveal the embedded Ukrainian positions which they then hit with artillery
Ditto sending in IFVs against javelin missiles and fpv drones.
The front lines are so long with attack and counter attack occurring daily in dozens of locations that the supply and distribution of AT weapons must be a constant juggling act to ensure they have enough in place.
I think the Russians are willing to sacrifice hardware and men just to gain control of a village that their own artillery has obliterated to drive out the Ukrainian army. The losses are increasing as they get more impatient and are probably hoping for enough gains to force either a substantial breakthrough or negotiated cease fire agreement but I can't see Zalensky going for that tbh