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It's reported by Russian media that General Aleksandr Tatarenko was amongst the ten reported dead when Ukraine struck the Belbek airbase, Crimea, on the 31st January.
General Gerasimov has been missing since the 4th January strike on Sevastopol. He has gone "missing" for a few weeks on previous occasions, e.g. in June '23 , so it may be nothing
Euromaidan Press report that "by targeting radars and communications, Ukraine has uncovered flaws in Russia’s network of Crimean defenses, enabling an escalating missile and drone campaign"
Maps, infographics, etc in the link below
Boric acid deposits have been found in the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant by IAEA inspectors since before Christmas. This is still present and is typically associated with coolant leaks and may be within limits.
Acid would normally be cleaned up for obvious reasons, but only Russian-authorised employees are allowed and their numbers are greatly reduced compared with Ukraine-run operations
Despite Russia withdrawing from the grain deal in July and its repeated strikes on Ukraine's port infrastructure, Ukrainian minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced yesterday that grain exports in January 2024 were almost back to pre-2022 levels
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/grain-exports-from-ukraine-return-to-pre-1706975626.html
Ukraine attacked Lukoil's Volgograd Oil Refinery yesterday.
Russia reported that a shot-down drone had started a small fire that was now extinguished and the plant working normally. Satellite and ground images back up reports that say that a primary oil processing plant, which was only completed in December 2022, was seriously damaged. This, along with a series of similar strikes, will severely impact Russian oil production
There's an in-depth article here https://en.defence-ua.com/events/how_much_russia_is_losing_due_to_ukrainian_strikes_on_oil_refineries-9395.html
US funding for Ukraine has taken another unpleasant twist,
"For months the administration has been working with a bipartisan group of Senators on a national security agreement that secures our border and provides support for the people of Ukraine and Israel. Just as legislative text is imminent, the House Republicans come up with their latest cynical political maneuver. The security of Israel should be sacred, not a political game."
Essentially US Speaker, Mike Johnson (Rep), wants a vote to separate funding for Israel out from the bi-partisan funding package that includes Ukraine and agreement on border controls.
This is a delaying tactic for the bi-partisan package that was all but agreed in the US Senate and is what US citizens want. The MAGA-group don't want to provide aid to Ukraine under any circumstances and a similar Republican bill to fund Israel (alone) was doomed at Senate-level in November.
It's just as well that Ukraine is signing security agreements with G7 nations, begun by Rishi in January, to be followed by Germany on Feb 16th. Canada, France and Italy have draft agreements ready for discussion under the G7 Framework Declaration formalised in July at the NATO summit
One day in the future when the main players are dead or long retired there will be some incredible books written about just how far Russia's intelligence agencies were able to inflitrate, guide and exploit the American far right.
Maybe we've just got accustomed to the American far right, but I'm not convinced they need much infiltration, guidance or exploitation from Russia in order to be considered off their nuts.
Edit to add - thats not to say I dont think its happening, regardless. Probably one for the Trump thread either way.
Its amazing how much of MAGA/ the GOP appears to be doing exactly what Putin wants
Whilst I'm confident that here are some paid actors in the mix, for most of them I sadly feel they are merely the most useful of idiots.
This is what happens when the unending culture war has rotted your brain so much that you prefer a hostile foreign despot over your own elected government because 'at least he's not woke.'
There is obviously a ton of nuance and variation out there in individual cases but sadly I feel that that's largely the nub of it.
There is obviously a ton of nuance and variation out there in individual cases but sadly I feel that that’s largely the nub of it.
Having worked for US companies for over 25 years and met hundreds in person and thousands in webex/zoom meetings, they display an outstanding level of political illiteracy even people with high educational attainment. Sadly with the right-wing media here controlling the narrative and the reductive style of modern politics we're not that far behind them any more.
BBC2 now
Part 2 of Putin Vs The West: At War
Part 2 of Putin Vs The West: At War
Brilliant documentary but I found it so depressing as there seems to an inevitable slide towards Russia keeping the stolen land. Found that Xiang Lanxin happily parroting an antiwestern rhetoric as being the cause of the war.a little tiresome.
In typical BBC fashion they were trying far too hard to be balanced
Not questioning the Russian narrative was a huge error
These two programmes were very insightful. As impressive was the range of people on the programme. Some very senior and informed bods representing their country's view.
Having worked for US companies for over 25 years and met hundreds in person and thousands in webex/zoom meetings, they display an outstanding level of political illiteracy even people with high educational attainment.
I agree in the main, the exception seems to be those who served overseas in the military who seemed better informed than most Brits.
Yep the ones who actually have a passport (and have used it) are fairly decent overall.
As someone married to an American immigrant to the UK.... thanks for putting that little exception in there.
Some of the smartest, funniest most creative and most empathetic people I've ever met have been American but sometimes it does feel that that section of their society spends its time nervously handcuffed to the loonie wing.
Yep the ones who actually have a passport (and have used it) are fairly decent overall.
I read a statistic a few years a go that said that only 6% of US citizens have a passport, if true that would explain a lot.
The thing is, if you are in the US and want to go skiing, your cheapest and nearest option would probably be in the US. If you want to go to a warm sunny beach, your cheapest and nearest option would probably be in the US.
Holidays in the Mediterranean are marketed as very glamorous destinations, the way the Caribbean is marketed in Europe.
Most US citizens can't really afford to travel outside of the USA.
Some Ukraine-specific updates on the bi-partisan bill discussed^^
On 5th Feb President Biden said, "We’ve got a bipartisan deal, and you’re going to see the detail of it this week. It’ll be introduced on Wednesday." https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/05/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-gaggle-las-vegas-nv/
The 4th Feb White House press briefing emphasises attacks by Russia on Ukraine during winter and humanitarian aid generally, including to other countries. While US military aid is still arriving in Ukraine from the 27th December package, that will be the last unless the bill is passed.
They contrast this to a House Republican party that by turning the bi-partisan bill down, doesn't want action on US border security and doesn't want the investment in the US defence industry (the whole $60bn would be prioritised for US contractors). The White House Fact Sheet covers border controls first and in some detail https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/04/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-calls-on-congress-to-immediately-pass-the-bipartisan-national-security-agreement/
Holidays in the Mediterranean are marketed as very glamorous destinations, the way the Caribbean is marketed in Europe.
No clearer example of this than the crowd at the Paris Roubaix cobbles, the 'locals' are clod-hopping farming types, screaming at the riders, half cut with a Gaulois on the go.
The groups of Americans are generally rapha-clad stock-brokers and well-preserved retired Californian dentists on the trip of a lifetime, just as excited but a completely different vibe.
Anyway.. back to Ukraine.
If you google US passport holders it's about 50-50 (various sources), UK over 85%
A Ukrainian pilot outlines how drones powered by jet skis sunk a Russian warship
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/05/europe/ukraine-drone-jet-skis-russian-warship-intl/index.html
Armenia looking to get out. Please say there are more countries looking to get out of Russian influence.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/31/armenia-formally-joins-international-criminal-court-in-snub-to-russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68223148
Confirmed, Tucker's doing a Putin interview, if Tucker's plane out of Russia mysteriously crashes then maybe we can assume he did some journalism, otherwise its going to be some truly depressing ass-kissery.
Maybe Tucker is there for other reasons To convey a message outwith other diplomatic channels. And TBH I cant see why an American journalist would suddenly be granted an audience with the leader the US is engaged in a proxy war with.
^^ It's a cheap and easy way for Putin to help undermine the Ukrainians and Biden by using the voice and face of a man beloved by the far right in America.
Trump being elected is really Putin's best chance to win in Ukraine. This is so in your face it won't even need denying like the huge amount of Russian bots nudging people on social media in the run up to the GE.
Putin probably cant believe his luck that a significant percentage of Americans are so gullible and in love with dictators these days.
This is an absolute kick in the nuts for Ukraine and by proxy the rest of Western Europe. @radiofreetom (Tom Nichols), a US expert in Russian affairs has been getting progressively more worried over the last year about this. This arsehole interviewing Putin and allowing his lies to be broadcast across the US will most probably be the final nail in the coffin of the 50 billion weapons and aid package:
"Letting Ukraine fall because of the GOP's cultish loyalty to Trump will be a betrayal that will stain America forever - and probably end up pulling us into a fight for Europe later. This is one of the rare moments when the the path to disaster is clearly marked and avoidable."
Maybe Tucker is there for other reasons To convey a message outwith other diplomatic channels. And TBH I cant see why an American journalist would suddenly be granted an audience with the leader the US is engaged in a proxy war with.
I'm guessing that you don't understand who Tucker Carlson is, and what he does. (Hint, he's not actually a journalist.)
Let’s hope the Ukrainians have a suitable drone they can use to destroy Tuckers private jet, if anyone needs to go down in a ball of flames then it’s this ****
Trump making very pointed remarks about the careers of those republicans who don't vote against this bill. ****
According to Trump, presidents have absolute immunity and can do anything they want. Accordingly therefore he wouldn’t object to Biden passing the Ukraine bill by himself ? Then sending Trump to Gitmo, as he clearly represents a threat to the Constitution 🤷♂️
The most frustrating thing is that, with support, Ukraine can almost certainly win this thing, the Russia home front is slowly starting to erode, Russian offensives are going nowhere and resulting in horrendous, unequal casualties, the F16's will be in action soon. O.K. the Summer counter offensive wasn't what was hoped but lessons were learnt and all the momentum is still in one direction.
Even if domestic political batshittery means that the US bails on Ukraine, the EU will keep them in the fight, they just won't be able to give them enough for a rapid victory, it will turn into a grim, drawn out slog, probably along similar battles lines to what we see now.
Any ceasefire on Putin's terms will be just a pause as Russia rearms and gets ready to try again, the only way we are likely to see an actual lasting peace in the next few years is if Russia is sent packing and, sadly, that requires the US to be on board.
Hence why Putin has turned the full force of his disinformation network on the American right, and sadly it's working.
This is what happens when you get into an extended conflict with a country where the population more or less look like yours and most speak your language fluently.
Makes recruitment for infiltration and sabotage operations considerably easier.
So the Republicans seemed to have blocked their own compromise Border Security and Ukraine Support bill...
Trump decision on being on teh ballot goes up to the supreme court for a nationwide ruling instead of a state by state version.
Putin just needs to keep lobbing missiles into Ukraine until November when he and teh west get clarity on the next phase.
Trump wins = Ukraine is cut by the US
Democrat win = US re-engages fully.
I wonder if the F16 jets are on provisional hold for the same reason/timeline although there are European offers but the US ones, could they go to the Middle East?
So the Republicans seemed to have blocked their own compromise Border Security and Ukraine Support bill…
Trump decision on being on teh ballot goes up to the supreme court for a nationwide ruling instead of a state by state version.
They have blocked it. Donald Trump sees that he has one chance to avoid imprisonment and that's to become President (if he can simultaneously delay the Courts).
He perceived border control to be President Biden's weakness and has gone for it, the problem being that the bi-partisan bill would have taken that one advantage away from him. Blocking border control gives him another few months to attack Biden and then debate head-to-head in November on border control.
In the meantime he's destroying any credibility that the Republican Party has, which most republican politicians don't seem to get. Despite controlling the House of Representatives and the US speaker, the Reps have failed to get two pieces of legislation through this week; one was the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who Reps blame for the surge in illegal immigration. There isn't a trace of irony in blaming Mayorkas for a border failure and then voting against a bill that would give him the necessary tools and the budget https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68172247
The second was the vote on aid to Israel (alone) which Reps lost. There isn't a trace of irony in pushing a bill that will fail (like it did in November) that will only delay aid to Israel because Reps destroyed the bi-partisan bill.
Ronna McDaniel offered Trump her resignation as Republican National Committee chair. He put her in post in 2017 but reportedly fell out with her for a variety of reasons including allowing challengers for Republican leader TV debate time.
It's now all about avoiding prison, although there are useful sidelines too
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had anticipated the loss of the bipartisan bill and had released a new bill that stripped border control out, leaving aid for Ukraine and Israel (together).
This combines the Trump-camp wish to kill border control changes and the Republican wish to aid Israel in the hope that they can get this through the US Senate with aid for Ukraine. That vote should take place this week https://www.npr.org/2024/02/07/1229785349/border-deal-ukraine-aid-senate
The US Speaker, Mike Johnson (Rep), has been damaged in Rep eyes this week by allowing two Rep-friendly votes that failed and hasn't commented on the latest bill, presumably until he finds out what Trump wants him to do