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I'm sure that many here will be aware that Russia launched further missile strikes between 31st Dec and 2nd Jan. Please read on though...
The 31st-2nd strikes comprised around 135 Shahed drones and around 108 cruise and ballistic missiles. This in addition to the massive 110 cruise and ballistic missile strike on 29th Dec (+drones)
Ukraine has recovered the wreckage of a Russian Kh-101 missile near Kyiv with manufacturing codes that suggest that it was made in the 4th quarter of 2023; the implication of this is that Russia has:
a) now launched a high % of its stocks, maybe 30% in a week and
b) is using brand-new stock, i.e there isn't much of a usable reserve and they're manufacturing just-in-time. Even my local shop displays the older stock at the front to sell before it's date-expired
To continue the AD/EW debate; 10/10 Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were destroyed, which is their brand new (2017-onward) missile unveiled by President Putin in 2018 and cost approx $10mn each.
Two years ago these were reported by the US as difficult to detect and track, the reality is different and there will be some useful updates to "western" AD as a result
Just staggering that hundreds of millions of Rubles worth of missiles are basically being fired at nearly random - like someone flinging a phone across a room in a rage.
Reading last night as well - it seems their own air defence missiles are causing as more damage by failing and falling on their own country or occupied areas? Is this now old stock or perhaps cheap China / North Vietnam stocks being used?
b) is using brand-new stock, i.e there isn’t much of a usable reserve and they’re manufacturing just-in-time.
This might not be the case, I wouldn't be surprised if they can't manage FIFO or they chose to use the latest and greatest stock to increase chances of success.
like someone flinging a phone across a room in a rage.
At a simplistic/ barbaric level that's what this entire war is. A nasty, evil little dictator that is throwing his toys and missiles out of the pram as he hasn't got what he wants.
I hope this ends badly for him.
Also - $250 million counter artillery radar - destroyed on the day it was deployed, that’s gotta hurt !
Looks like it’s been hit (assuming the video is genuine) but is it destroyed?
https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-troops-blow-up-russias-newest-radar-system/?amp
but is it destroyed?
that's a lot of valves to replace 😉
Also – $250 million counter artillery radar – destroyed on the day it was deployed, that’s gotta hurt !
I suspect there's an extra zero or two in there.
Well if the reported stockpile numbers are to be believed Ru should be starting to run on empty soon.
It is notable our media do not report much (or at all?) on any significant Ru hits, just stuff like theatres and schools. Now I'm willing to believe that ukr really is shooting down a good proportion, but, just on numbers there must be some significant damage being done. And I can't believe Ru is as rubbish as to just spank this stuff at office blocks - they'll be going for high value targets, like airfields that will home the F16s. Whether any are getting through I don't know, and I'm not seeing it reported.
So our media is to be believed they should be running out of missles soon. Although I'm sure I heard that before! If they do, then what are they left with? Seems they are running out of options. Its gone very quiet on 'scarier' weapons. In some ways I'd prefer it if they were busy still threatening to nuke everyone.
Also seen Turkey is blocking our minesweepers from being handed over to ukraine which is a real shame as they should have made shipping a bit safer, but entirely expected I would have thought.
And I can’t believe Ru is as rubbish as to just spank this stuff at office blocks – they’ll be going for high value targets, like airfields that will home the F16s. Whether any are getting through I don’t know, and I’m not seeing it reported.
One of the most surprising things from the first days of the war was that Russia didn't knock out Ukrainian airfields and air defenses. The obvious reason for that is that Russia does not have the precision guided weapons to take out the key strategic targets, hence the terror attacks on civilians. Also, it's very hard to knock out an airfield. A cratered runway can be patched and back in operation in hours. You need to knock out the fuel tanks, munitions stores, etc. if you want to prevent it being used, but those can be dispersed so it would take a lot of precision strikes to take out a single airfield. I don't think Russia has enough precision guided weapons to do that, if they did, they would have done it already.
...they’ll be going for high value targets, like airfields that will home the F16s. Whether any are getting through I don’t know, and I’m not seeing it reported
You'd think that Russia would be after industrial facilities ATM, especially those housing the reported 3x increase in Ukraine's arms industry. The problem is that if your 500mph cruise missile gets shot down the parts could land anywhere and that's maybe 1.5 tonnes of missile parts, with explosive, hitting unintended targets.
Russia has a history of destroying civilian targets and infrastructure as well as a history of disinformation, the Bolshevik Party opened a Disinformation Bureau in 1923 (Dezinformburo), so it's unlikely that we'll ever know what they intended to strike, but the results have been tragic
Also seen Turkey is blocking our minesweepers from being handed over to ukraine which is a real shame as they should have made shipping a bit safer, but entirely expected I would have thought
Yes, entirely expected. Turkey has blocked all warships from entering the Black Sea, although I think that ships registered pre-2021 in the Black Sea can come and go.
I don't think that giving Ukraine ships was ever viable because Russia still has anti-ship capability and a minesweeper isn't going to last 5 minutes.
If Turkey had been prepared to let these ships pass then IMHO they would have needed to be given to a third-party to conduct mine-sweeping to the benefit of all of the Black Sea nations because a lot of these mines are now free-floating and a danger to all
Reading last night as well – it seems their own air defence missiles are causing as more damage by failing and falling on their own country or occupied areas?
It isn't just their AD and this isn't the first time... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-rebuild-homes-2024-01-03/
There's plenty of video of various Russian AD missile failures too and every nation suffers duds, some more than others
As this video of a downed Kinzhal hypersonic going down into the river in Kiev shows, even a missed that's been intercepted can do a lot of damage, that's a hell of a splash.
https://nitter.net/Euan_MacDonald/status/1742116511852978328#m
The only way to ensure near zero civilian casualties is to either have sufficient air defence assets that you can site them in the boondocks well away from settlements, not an option for Ukraine sadly or B: not have anyone firing missiles into your cities in the first place.
I'm a fan of option B personally, but Russians gonna Russian.
It may sound a silly question, but why does the Kinzhal missile in that video fall straight down, like it's been dropped? If it was shot down, surely it would have a bit of a 'arc' to it??
Wonder if it wasn't intercepted electronicly?
Fool the missile into thinking it's arrived at the co ordinate and it turns into bunker buster mode and nose dives.
A mid air missile strike would surely allow a continuation of trajectory for a period of time before lack of control surfaces or motor power cause an ever increasing deviation off target
Probably bollox but I'm an armchair weapons specialist today.
If it was shot down, surely it would have a bit of a ‘arc’ to it??
You don't see interception on the video I think? Might have been 10 miles away at altitude and what you are seeing is the end if the arc.
It may sound a silly question, but why does the Kinzhal missile in that video fall straight down
Maybe the arc was above the camera persons head? looked vertical but in fact was heading towards or away from camera?
I also see there are claims of an SU35 many hundreds of miles from the front line being introduced to a biggedy-boom overnight as well...
More crashed Russian missiles on their own territory - and hiding what the casualties are.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1742209684302385287?t=fMWGgAAl6v28H24-y4eTXw&s=19
It's curious, but could it be that we're seeing the very end of its fall, as in, it's forward momentum had come to an end at a higher altitude?
When the C-Ram intercepted rockets which were fairly low they'd often fragment and shit would go everywhere, but as this is larger and seems whole it could be an EW intervention rather than a kinetic one?
Doubtful UKR may confirm exactly what if anything it was and we know the RU wouldn't admit equipment or operator failure as they're the dogs bollox. 😶
And confirmed that a plane was set alight...
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1742878260290031748?t=05sJ7PfA7uJ_XAGElxKzcg&s=19
I wonder what the pilot will think! Lol
He will be up nice and early for the day, the only pilot on the base as he has (had) the only servicable plane left. He's getting ready to wow the millennials on base again with his Maverick like tales of daring do. He put his plane in for detailing last night too, along with a new air freshener...
Heads over towards the plane..."oh for f**** sake! Who was smoking this time!?"
Regarding the plane that went up in flames.
Regarding the plane that went up in flames
If the VVS had a VVS Regt (RAF Regt) then they're in the poop
Still not as bad as letting the Taliban breach the wire on Bastion mins.
Hopefully the aircraft was still on tools, else the pilot is also in the shit. 😉😂
Not my responsibility guv! I’m drinking coffee and watching movies!😎
Raf Reg too busy arguing with the world about why they should count as special forces……
God bless the Short Range Desert Group! 🫡
Short range? But 5 miles is a long way...
Yeah nice video but 'plane is not confirmed destroyed and apparently there's 120 something left so it's not like we gave them ATACAMS again, ffs.
It's a damn shame shamebody like Biden won't actually make a real stand.
It’s a damn shame shamebody like Biden won’t actually make a real stand.
He's done what he can but he needs to work with Congress to get stuff done. A lot of Republicans are anti-Ukraine just because Biden is pro-Ukraine.
He’s done what he can but he needs to work with Congress to get stuff done. A lot of Republicans are anti-Ukraine just because Biden is pro-Ukraine.
There's no doubt that the whole issue of funding within US politics is a problem. It's much less of a problem to US voters and opinion polls say that people in the US support funding.
This WSJ piece by Prof. Phillips P. O'Brien, "Does Biden want Ukraine to win?" is an interesting read https://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-wall-street-journal/20240102/281986087381302
Edit history for General Gerasimov's wikipedia page is amusing, in a somewhat macabre fashion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Valery_Gerasimov&action=history
EDIT: seems like wishful thinking unfortunately.
A lot of Republicans are anti-Ukraine just because Biden is pro-Ukraine.
Which seems strange, you'd think they'd be falling over themselves to stick one on those damn Ruskies.
Which seems strange, you’d think they’d be falling over themselves to stick one on those damn Ruskies.
There's a Republican "Putin Wing" (named by Liz Cheney (Rep)) that seems to be gathering strength https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/anti-ukraine-measures-fall-short-significant-gop-backing-rcna94246
Kevin McCarthy (Rep. Speaker) was brokering a deal in October to avoid a US shutdown but was voted out as speaker, orchestrated by Matt Gaetz (Rep), a follower of Donald Trump. This ultimately led to the appointment of Mike Johnson (Rep) as Speaker, another follower of Donald Trump and a member of his legal team during two Senate impeachment trials.
“I think it’s a top-down thing. We recognize that Donald Trump has overtaken the Republican party,” Ramer said. “What Donald Trump tapped into is this isolationist bit of the Republican party, and I think that that is affecting how Republican voters approach the issue.” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/14/republican-house-ukraine-support-gaetz
Nikki Haley (Rep), former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, is running for US President. She has overtaken Ron de Santis in the polls, placing her second to Donald Trump.
The Guardian discusses a poll amongst voters https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/23/nikki-haley-polls-surge-trump-republicans
Politico discusses a poll of Republican County Chairs who shape opinions https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/04/haley-desantis-trump-seth-masket-gop-survey-00133663
On 5th January she published these on TwitterX:
Nikki Haley Jan 5
My differences with Donald Trump:
-He grew the debt by $8 trillion in 4 years.
-He praises dictators. He picked a fight with Israel’s prime minister after Oct. 7.
We need to put the chaos and the drama of the past behind us.
Nikki Haley Jan 5
Ron refuses to give a straight answer on what he would do in Ukraine. We need moral clarity in the White House, not dodging and dithering.
Nikki Haley Jan 5
Ron thinks supporting Ukraine is not a vital U.S. national security interest. He couldn’t be more wrong. A win for Russia is a win for China.
Nikki Haley Jan 5
In 2014, Ron voted to give Ukraine aid.
In 2015, he criticized Obama for not doing enough.
Now, he’s throwing Ukraine under the bus just so he can copy Trump.
We need a president who understands the difference between good and evil.
Hope that all helps...There is a Republicans for Ukraine group as well
On the subject of missile and drone attacks it's clear that Ukraine continues to make attacks on Russian military resources, the latest being the Saky airfield in Crimea causing Russia to close the Kerch bridge again, although it wasn't targetted.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/7/7436173/
Ukraine has the wreckage of a Russian-launched missile, recovered from Kharkiv, that has no external markings. Experts believe that it's NKorean in origin https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-shows-evidence-russia-fired-north-korea-missile-kharkiv-2024-01-06/
This is significant because Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and due to take the Presidency again in July, has agreed resolutions banning military trade with NKorea.
There wasn't a precedent for the Russian Federation taking the UN seat after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 and Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasus were all signatories. It would be ironic if Russia was voted out of the UN in favour of Ukraine. I doubt that would happen though
This is significant because Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and due to take the Presidency again in July, has agreed resolutions banning military trade with NKorea.
With their off the scale x/Twitter hypocrisy from the various MFA Russia global accounts, I really don't think they GAS about anything the country has agreed to.
Interesting article that goes a long way to explain the extreme macho street gang culture that pervades Russian society, and Putin, who was in a street gang himself.
Ironically, despite Russian attempts to destroy energy infrastructure in Ukraine for the second winter, it was reported earlier this week that large parts of Russia are struggling to heat homes. It seems that their infrastructure is falling apart and men of working age haven't been in Russia for a couple of years now https://www.newsweek.com/russia-maps-moscow-power-outage-heat-winter-freeze-emergency-1859079
The report ^^ concerns the Moscow region but deaths have been reported as far away as St.Petersburg, where a Russian naval captain died in his home due to a lack of power on 3rd Jan
It was reported yesterday that Russia has now instituted a series of scheduled power cuts that will last until April for 12 hours at a time. The temperature was -17C in Moscow this morning and -13C in St. Petersburg
But sanction’s don’t work 🤦🏻♂️
Putin recreating Leningrad without a siege required.
-13C in St. Petersburg
Apart from that absolutely massive warehouse that went up in smoke. I've no idea what it housed though?