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Was it ever realistic to expect Ukraine to regain all of the territory lost since 2014?
That's not really how these things work. The question is, what territory can the two parties maintain military control over?
I can’t see Ukraine achieving anything better than could have been achieved through negotiation during the Spring of 2022
Negotiation with who? Ukraine already had border agreements with Russia, Crimean was Ukrainian territory. Russia tore those agreements up. Ukraine isn't going to negotiate with a partner that just tears up existing treaties and then launches a genocidal invasion.
There’s plenty of places you can discuss Israels genocide.
If that is aimed at me it wasn't me that brought the topic of Israel on to this thread.
And what do you mean flirting with a ban? I mentioned Gaza but I am not discussing it as a topic, which I believe is the issue, why would I get a ban - for even mentioning it?
Are we really now so scared of the topic that it can't even be mentioned? We all have to pretend that it doesn't exist?
And read my post again, I said that the two situations are not a fair comparison.
And what do you mean flirting with a ban?
Just a guess, but I suspect that the moderators on a mountain biking forum get tired of having to deal with people trying to sneak banned political topics under the radar. Come on, it's a mountain biking forum FFS.
And read my post again, I said that the two situations are not a fair comparison.
I've been scrolling back but I can't see your post.
it’s a mountain biking forum FFS.
Well carry on discussing Ukraine then. It's obviously a very important subject for you.
That’s not really how these things work. The question is, what territory can the two parties maintain military control over?
This has always been the issue that not a lot of discussion has occurred on, how do Russia become an occupying force over Ukraine, noting that their population is a third that of Russia, Crimea was always a mixed area that was pro Russia, and after the 2014 conflict, those who were Ukrainian supporters were 'moved' and replaced with Russians, so again, no chance of Ukraine being able to take it back without decades of misery.
Reality is, it's just a case of Ukraine standing up for as long as they can in the hope of a Russian collapse, a la Afghanistan, or like the US in Vietnam, the dividing lines now in Ukraine are pretty clear, so to gain ground will take a lot of resource, over and over again.
It's a massive topic for Europe not just mountain bikers.
The mods banned talk of Israel/Palestine. So it's up to them to make that decision on a private owned forum. (Even if that's the wrong term "forum")
Back on track I believe it's looking grim for the average Ukraine person. males are being inscripted at increased rates to replace/rotate troops. So far Putin has slaughtered nearly 400 thousand of his own country men. Broken nearly every rule of conventional warfare there where even pows on the ship that just been blown up (unconfirmed).
This will spread into EU countries if Putin wins not that anyone wins in warfare.
It’s a massive topic for Europe not just mountain bikers.
Are you sure? I can't remember the last time I heard anyone wanting to discuss the situation in Ukraine apart from on here. It was probably about 9 months ago when I attended a Ukrainian cultural event to raise funds for Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67839340
Just to press home how serious this is for EU nations
The Ukraine family I spoke to in aldi today seemed consumed with it.
And it's still all over france24 news.
Bleak assessment of military prospects in 2024 from 5live earlier. Russia’s industrial machine is now cranking into full effect while supplies from the West are starting to falter. Putin is waiting to see if the Republicans win next year, at which point it could be game over for Ukraine.
I'm not picking a fight with you martinhutch, but this is exactly what Russia wants the ditherers in various media and national assemblies to think.
I think that Russia and the current leadership is clinging on and the repeated failure of opposition parties to register candidates for the Russian GE because of admin issues is evidence of this, e.g. Alexei Navalny, Igor Girkin and Yekaterina Duntsova. Boris Nadezhdin is the only candidate that has successfully registered and was a colleague of a murdered opposition candidate, Boris Nemtsov (d.2015)
When a nation increasingly clamps down on dissent as Russia has for two years you know that they feel threatened and as Anton Gerashchenko said on TwitterX on May 27, 2023, “For the first time on Russian TV, propagandists said that Putin and the country’s leaders must resign and others need to be elected.”
Russia’s industrial machine is now cranking into full effect...
Why are they relying on NKorea and Iran, amongst others, to provide them with materiel?
Russia used to be the second largest exporter of arms in the world behind the US. From 2012-2016 Russia supplied 24.1%, between 2017 and 2021 this dropped to 18.6% and now they rely on two much smaller countries https://www.statista.com/chart/18417/global-weapons-exports/
Ukraine on the other hand has agreements with various western companies to manufacture in-house and has increased production 3x since last year. OK, so 3x not a lot = not much, but it's more positive than Russia; think of how Ukraine could use home-grown materiel without "western" restrictions. The Wagner road trip and Ukrainian excursions into Belgorod, Crimea and Moscow demonstrate how vulnerable Russia is
I hope you're right, but I think there's a balance to be struck between those who claim that Russia is collapsing and those who claim Russian victory is inevitable.
While we have seen a lot of outdated kit turning up on the battlefield, and Russia having to relying on the likes of North Korea as a supplier, there is pretty wide acknowledgement that there it does also have the capacity to ramp up munitions production, and the results of that are starting to be seen. It's not going to churn out endless T90 tanks any time soon, and the economic cost of the war+sanctions is likely to be cumulative and pretty ruinous.
Was it ever realistic to expect Ukraine to regain all of the territory lost since 2014?
Yes. The EU turned their back on Ukraine because cheap fuel and exports were more important to them in 2014. The UK was unique in training Ukrainian troops (Op Orbital-2015), which became the multi-national Op Interflex in 2022.
Most of Europe hasn't contributed to this and their own efforts have become mired in EU-nonsense https://www.gov.uk/government/news/30000-ukrainian-recruits-trained-in-largest-uk-military-training-effort-since-second-world-war
Germany has started to wake up with France several kilometres behind, which is shameful for the third largest arms exporter in the world https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
If Europe gets on and produces the promised aid, e.g. 1mn 155mm shells, of which they produced c300k so far, then it will be possible https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67413025
The reason Russia has had so many issues with their infrastructure during this war was through fraud and failure of their government in managing their defence contracts, they are turning that around, but it doesn't happen quickly, and the reality is, they are barely able to afford this now, let along the continuation over the next few years, even their allies in China are not happy with this conflict rolling on, it is basically a stalemate and i can't see either side doing much bar moving the line a few miles every year, it's sad though that Ukraine just keep getting hit, they lost Crimea in 2014 and signed up to agreements Russia just threw away, what hope do they have even after a ceasefire, a nation just waiting for the next conflict to occur?
Was it ever realistic to expect Ukraine to regain all of the territory lost since 2014?
"That’s not really how these things work. The question is, what territory can the two parties maintain military control over?"
Eh? That's just another way of saying the same thing Surely???
If you look at a map from 3 years ago up to today how many square miles has Russia actually won in the special military operation.
Also, the reason why this thread stays open is probably because the same ten willy wavers don't come on here for a pissing up the wall contest. Which Very quickly turns into a playground fight between the easily offended and the politically correct indignant, I'm better at arguing than you are crew
Yeah its been a massive relief that the usual a-holes have generally stayed off this thread, although for a while today I wondered if it had changed and would be another thread I cant open because as you say, the willy-wavers had taken over.
I am glad because I rely on reading and posting on this thread to make sense of the madness that is going on. It really helps my mental health. Really appreciate the regular relevant posters on here. Cheers 👍👍
Here here. I value the level discussion and informed views and can't be doing with the drama. I'll take the risk it's a little rose tinted / echo chamber.
We have a Russian in our house and out of respect don't discuss the war, don't play the news or generally discuss it
Interesting if true - shot down over Russia?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1740733225771913316?t=JOj0D7ahZanOL0KDhOnyoA&s=19
if true just as likely to be friendly fire as it is to be ukr
Considering how many railways and factories deep within Russia have become victims of 'Ivan the Smoker' getting a small team with a few stinger MANPADS into the country and having them lurk by the bombers home bases isn't beyond possibility.
Russia has already moved its strategic aircraft further and further from the border following drone attacks, they are a clearly a key Ukr target.
Time will tell but if this is the case it will be yet another headache for Putin those bombers will be exceedingly hard to replace under the current sanctions.
Well, wasn’t that about a fifth of ru reported stockpiles? spanked in one day which seems to be in response to some high profile ukr strikes.
Sounds like a lot of damage and deaths but nothing as much as you’d expect from that number of missles.
There was a suggestion on the radio yesterday that the intent was to make Ukraine nervous about resumed strikes on urban areas and bring the air defences back closer to cities and away from the front lines where it has impeded Russian air strikes. While the latest patriot battery is sat near the beachhead, Russia can no longer use the glide bombs it had been having some success with
As proved by all forces in ww2 . Random carpet bombing of civilians does very little to lower their resolve and shorten a campaign.
What it does do is force the defence side into a defence posture which withdraws men and associated weapons away from the front lines to defend cities.
The Ukrainian defence force are doing a great job in choosing specific targets and taking them out without a great deal of collateral damage . Those drone strikes by Russia , not so much.
It didn’t work last winter, and Ukraine is in a better position now anyway. So I don’t think it will work this time around.
Ukranian civilians have also adapted, they have rechargable tourches, diesel generators and wood burners ready for when the power or heating goes off. This wasn't the case last year which is why the mild winter of 22/23 was so impactful. Even though it greatly extended the mud season and allowed the Russians time to dig in.
Full credit also has to go to the engineers and repair teams who are working on the Ukrainian power grid, they've pulled some pretty serious feats in getting things back online mere hours after massive rocket barrages directly targeted at them.
I'm sure any sensible country looking at improving the resilience of their power grid in a near-peer conflict will be taking careful notes of how this has been achieved.
This makes for somewhat disconcerting reading - seems like there's a possibility that Russia may attack Europe in 2024 in the interregnum between the end of a Joe Biden presidency and the start of a possible Trump one:
Can't see that, Putin is not that daft, and Russia can barely cover their special military operation in Ukraine, imagine them trying to push up towards Latvia or Estonia and start something, their infrastructure, logistics and command would be spread even thinner, and their allies would be pretty peeved with them as the likes of China was this whole thing gone.
I also don't think Moldova have the appetite to do anything again with Russia, especially to a country like Poland, who seem to be on a pretty much leading the push against anything Russian just now in the EU and beyond!
Bild + "unnamed intelligence source" = tabloid clickbait
Id park that article in the same place as a Daily Fail article on migrants.
Bild, its not a really in-depth paper here in Germany.
From Wiki:
Bild lit. 'Picture' (German: [bɪlt] ⓘ) or Bild-Zeitung, lit. 'Picture Newspaper' (German: [ˈbɪltˌt͡saɪ̯tʊŋ] ⓘ) is a German tabloid newspaper published by Axel Springer SE. The paper is published from Monday to Saturday; on Sundays, its sister paper Bild am Sonntag ("Bild on Sunday") is published instead, which has a different style and its own editors. Bild is tabloid in style but broadsheet in size. It is the best-selling European newspaper and has the sixteenth-largest circulation worldwide.[4] Bild has been described as "notorious for its mix of gossip, inflammatory language, and sensationalism" and as having a huge influence on German politicians.[5] Its nearest English-language stylistic and journalistic equivalent is often considered to be the British national newspaper The Sun, the second-highest-selling European tabloid newspaper.[6][7][8]
The bit about attacking in Europe seems highly unlikely to me. Any nato country will have proper air cover from nato planes + SAMS and that’s a different ballgame to Ukraine with ageing migs and ex soviet SAM systems.
Strikes on Belgorod.
Interesting to see what excuses the Russians come up with as an explanation. Certainly makes it a lot harder for the Russian population to ignore when they're are bombs falling on Russian cities.
One of the clauses on receiving NATO weapons was that they were only to be used for defence. Wonder what they used for this?
One of the clauses on receiving NATO weapons was that they were only to be used for defence. Wonder what they used for this?
Ukraine have claimed that they were targeting military targets and the collateral damage was due to the Russians shooting down the missiles, and the debris falling on civilian areas.
Think the strike was a bad move for Ukraine, they need to be surgical rather than falling into the Russian style revenge strikes.
Russian EW continuing to be problematic
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/27/russia-electronic-warfare-turn-tide-war-ukraine/
The people of Russia are not blind to whats going on they just dont care
Actually, they do.
"Respondents in the poll were asked what they would wish for their fellow citizens in the new year, with the most popular answer being "peaceful skies and the end of the special military operations"—the Kremlin's term for its invasion of Ukraine. Only 6 percent of respondents said they are wishing for Russia's "victory.""
"An October poll by the Moscow-based research group Chronicles found that only 12 percent of respondents supported the war—22 percent of respondents said they supported the war in a similar poll by Chronicles in February."
"A separate October poll by the Levada Center found that 70 percent of Russians would support Putin if he decided to end the conflict that week. Roughly a third of respondents said they would even support the end of the war if it meant Russia would have to return the Ukrainian territories that were annexed last fall."
Compare President Putin's NYE address for 2022 to 2023. In 2022 it was SMO-heavy and filmed in front of a Military HQ. Reuters headline 2022, "Putin uses New Year address for wartime rallying cry to Russians"
This year the SMO didn't get a mention and it was filmed at the Kremlin. Reuters headline 2023, "Zelenskiy speaks of war, Putin makes passing reference in contrasting New Year speeches"
All quotes https://www.newsweek.com/putin-brutal-news-russian-poll-1856668
As you'd expect, people in Ukraine are tired of the war as well
Russian EW continuing to be problematic
This has been an ongoing to and fro since the invasion began in 2021 and it will continue.
It wasn't so effective in the case of the many high-value targets that Ukraine has destroyed, including the three Sukhoi SU34 fighter-bombers on 22nd Dec and the landing ship Novocherkassk a few days later, all in Russian-controlled territory
Think the strike was a bad move for Ukraine, they need to be surgical rather than falling into the Russian style revenge strikes
I don't think that Ukraine is into tit-for-tat and they definitely wouldn't spaff over a $1bn on a largely unproductive missile strike as Russia did on the 29th.
Missiles and drones getting shot down is unfortunately par for the course in war and they'll still cause fatalities when they do.
"If Russia wants someone to blame for the deaths of Russians in this war, it should start with President Putin" Tom Phipps, UK Deputy Political Coordinator at the UN 30/12/23 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/russia-has-now-turned-to-indiscriminate-attacks-on-civilians-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council
Think the strike was a bad move for Ukraine, they need to be surgical rather than falling into the Russian style revenge strikes
There seems to be a lot of suggestions that there was incoming/nearby Ukrainian drone strike incoming to nearby. But the actual damage in the city is the result of misfiring Russian defence missiles...
Another set of explosions in Russian, at Bilhorod (sp?) only now there are images on twitter of Russian Pantsir missile boosters lying inside someone's home... I wonder if some cheaper home made, Chinese or North Korean parts are causing?
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1742278672852140196?t=xsK6M2-VKXjB7whhFbc2qQ&s=19
And you have to smirk at this one:
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1742219808567960054?t=W1xN_tzU2Xa9bFNi7r0EWQ&s=19
Bilhorod (sp?)
The Russian alphabet has the consonant 'г' which is pronounced 'g' as in 'good'. Ukrainian has two related consonants, 'Г' which is pronounced 'h', and 'Ґ' which is pronounced the same as the Russian 'г'. Ukrainian hardly ever uses 'Ґ', so your spelling will be the way it is spelt when transliterating Ukrainian. 'Bilgorod' will be the transliteration of the Russian version.