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F16s responsible?
Yes, one was destroyed in Odessa https://en.defence-ua.com/news/image_of_destroyed_ukrainian_f_16_aircraft_near_odesa_emerges_as_belgian_incident-8983.html
and "two Ukrainian Su-24s that were launching missiles were destroyed by air defence during anti-aircraft combat." https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/26/7434598/
Hmmmm 🤔
It does seem there's a sudden uptick in Ukrainian air force strikes.
It could just be that they are on top of Russian air defence.
But yes, could also be better missile or F16's - although I thought F16's were a fighter not a bomber as it were?
Edit, misreading posts
F16 carries amraan advanced medium range anti aircraft missile
Usual load is the aim120, range isn't huge though about 30 miles.
Iirc it's fire and forget, you can launch it and within a few seconds it becomes autonomous
Patriots have longer range in a similar system , mach 4 but range is 50plus depending on model
What I don't know is , do you need an airbourne radar to maximise the f16 potential , flying a Hawkeye for example to deploy the f16 up , target , fire , land in the shortest time so as to reduce load on the pilot and fuel and risk of air to air combat. Or do you put up the f16 flying cap and roll the dice to see if a juicy target happens into your weapon envelope
Yes, one was destroyed in Odessa
Did you actually read the link?
"Claims of a destroyed F-16 fighter jet near Odesa, circulating online, have been debunked by Ukrainian military officials as fabricated. The image has been confirmed to be a repurposed photograph of a 2018 incident involving an F-16 fire at a Belgian airbase, the South Operational Command reports."
Did you actually read the link?
A certain amount of tongue-in-cheek was deployed, along with a pinch of salt at the Russian claim linked below that one 🙂
Ah, totally missed that!
But yes, could also be better missile or F16’s – although I thought F16’s were a fighter not a bomber as it were?
I don't suppose that Ukraine will specify, but the Russians have said two Sukhoi SU24 Fencers; the M-variant has been modded to carry Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG
It wouldn't take much to put an anti-ship missile (ASM) on F16; a few of Norway's aircraft have carried the Penguin ASM. The Harpoon ASM, which Spain uses with F16, is already available to Ukraine. Both missiles are relatively short-range 30-50 miles
I'm not convinced that F16 is in use yet though and less convinced of that in this attack
There are no credible reports that Ukraine has received F16s yet, it would be extremely difficult to keep it secret if they had, they are quite distinctive and would be impossible to keep hidden unless they were only flown at nighttime.
I thought F16’s were a fighter not a bomber as it were?
They're a multirole fighter. Depending on the version (specifically the electronics systems), they can fire a huge range of air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles, as well as unguided bombs. AFAIK, the Russian Sukhois have a more powerful radar than any F16, which means that F16s would need to be kept back out of missile range and use stand-off weapons against ground targets.
F16 carries amraan advanced medium range anti aircraft missile
Usual load is the aim120, range isn’t huge though about 30 miles.
According to Wikipedia, the more recent versions of AMRAAM have a range of up to 100 miles. It'll depend on the speed and altitude of the launching aircraft though. An F15 is faster and more powerful than an F16 so it can launch from higher altitude and speed, which will boost the range of the missiles. If the F16s are launching from low altitude and subsonic speed, the range of the missiles will be much shorter.
F16s can also launch Harpoon anti-ship missiles and AGM-158 cruise missiles, which have a range of over 200 miles. That will depend on having compatible electronics and the U.S. being will to supply the missiles though.
I agree that F16's are unlikely to be I'm action yet, not because Ukraine wouldn't be able to keep them hidden but because whenever Ukraine gets a new capability they tend to give it a fairly spectacular debut.
With HIMARs it was a string of ammo depots.
With Storm Shadow it was the Naval staff meeting at Svestopal
With ATACMS it was a big chunk of Russia's attack helicopter fleet.
I suspect that when F16's are first deployed in earnest we'll all know about it.
the thing about the american stuff it's design will have a big anti soviet bent, and be specifically designed with russian counter measures in mind, something like amraam will be a game changer, shame they can't be given a couple squadrons of f15's (they really pack a punch with long range anti air).
According to Ukranian reports the Novocherkask was loaded with a shipment of Shahed drones and the munitions for them.
Which would both explain why it went up like that and make it a very productive night's work for some Ukr aviators.
Merry Christmas Vlad.
I did wonder after watching that huge bloody explosion about the Russians saying the ship was "damaged".
I wonder who gets to tell Putin about news like this? Sure as hell glad it isn't me!
I did wonder after watching that huge bloody explosion about the Russians saying the ship was “damaged”.
Technically true I guess. Just omits a few minor additional words like "beyond repair".
^^ Yep, definitely an insurance write off id say. I wouldn't even recommend buying this one back to get it back on the road water.
Me again
The early rumours I was hearing appear to have been confirmed, looks like it was an air-launched Storm Shadow that hit the Novocherkask and damaged/vapourised it.
Your taxes at work people 🙂
Considering how rare and precious those munitions are to the Ukranians I can well believe that they waited for the ship to be loaded to the gunwhales with something precious before sending in the big flying dildo of consequence.
...that hit the Novocherkask and damaged/vapourised it.
Looking at the low-res satellite pics doing the rounds on TwitterX it wasn't the only one. At least one other smaller ship, maybe 30m long, was sunk in a nearby berth. Several will have sustained damage along with damage to dock infrastructure
This will upset future Russian logistics severely, as well as the immediate loss of the crews and munitions carried by Novocherkassk and which will all be very public
That's another batch of experienced sailors who won't be going home to their families.
Plus here's another forced example of how good the Ukrainian grasp of quality intel is, yet again. The simple knowledge that your weapons supply chain is vulnerable will cause massive planning headaches. Presumably the drones & warheads were being shipped on the Novo as it was in theory capable of defending itself as well as being a good load carrier. If it was the only such asset in the theatre, how does Russia now go about shipping in the next batch of drones..? No doubt, bright minds will be looking to back track down the supply chain and look for other opportunities for disruption.
Up early and reading a few bits and bobs..The ship has the same name as a town near Rostov-on-Don (which also sounds like it should be near Sheffield....). The Russians shot a load of protesters there in 1962.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aufstand_in_Nowotscherkassk
Then I got to read Putins Wiki page where this also gets a mention.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin
Russia has had some good news in that they've taken a large part of Marinka, but they've only been after it since 2014
Ukraine reports that the town is practically non-existent and provides little defensive cover now so Ukraine will gradually retreat to prepared defensive positions further back to preserve their forces.
UK MOD commented in November that this war generally favours the defenders, e.g. the large Russian assault on Adiivka that was halted by Ukrainian forces, "The intelligence update states that the nature of the operation in Avdiivka indicates that Russia’s “core military-political challenge remains the same as it has throughout most of the war”.
“Political leaders demand more territory to be seized but the military cannot generate the effective operational level offensive action.”" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/28/russian-losses-in-battle-for-avdiivka-may-be-worst-of-2023-says-uk
The 800 miles of frontline and the lack of tactical air power on both sides are identified by the MOD as major factors in favour of defenders. Russia doesn't have either the armour or the aircraft to support troops so expect more Russian losses around Marinka
I have some concerns about the hundreds of Russian cruise missiles that haven't really made an appearance yet. Shahed drones have formed the majority of the attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with one or two cruise missiles per strike.
In August Ukraine's GUR estimated that 585 cruise and ballistic missiles with warheads were available to Russia
@timba, interesting point. It cannot be for a lack of targets nor probably shortage of intel on where the targets are located. Sometimes it's the simple answers that are closest to the truth. Maybe they're hopelessly unreliable or even non-working? Corruption or incompetence in the supply chain could mean that the number likely to launch and then actually go anywhere near the intended target is so low that they're nearly useless..? Earlier in the conflict I'd have been a bit cynical about anyone making such a claim. In terms of 'don't underestimate your enemy', but so long into the war now surely these cruise missiles would have been usefully deployed more, if they actually worked? I've no idea, just asking a question.
See , I don't have any issues with my taxes being used to supply the Ukrainian army with munitions. Even if they are getting near there best before date and due to be expensively dismantled.
It's way more satisfying than giving Rwanda £125,000,000 for not receiving any deported people from the UK . So the Rwanda government officials can all run around in new Mercedes thanks to the idiots in government.
Give the Ukrainian army more stuff I say. Let's face it, they are not going to be in a position to trouble any NATO block countries for the next decade. They can't defeat Ukraine and the daily losses are still not insignificant.
Yup, missiles have an expiration date and disposing of them safely in the West is prohibitive.
Much better to dispose of them slightly less safely in Russian positions. IMHO.
The issue is that the 'short dated' stock isn't going to be anywhere near enough to keep Ukraine in the fight long enough.
The Russians have a similar problem they have vast reserves of Soviet stock but how much of it actually works?
Before and after shots of the Novocherkask.
https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1740027900769001526
^^ I completely agree. They just say it for domestic consumption though. Most of Russia still relies on state news and so still believe his crap in the main. Tragic on so many levels.
Great to see Ukraine attempting to take the initiative but...
...problem for both sides is (continued) availability of military hardware.
Western/democratic support is waning - not withstanding $250 million announced today by US.
Putin's tacit support from china, n korea, iran is in the form of hardware - munitions.
The long game which putin was reportedly 'playing' is becoming clearer - US election cycle underway so a focus on domestic issues; other western govs will only follow where US leads; increasing cost for no measurable and permanent return; armament stocks being depleted faster than they are being replenished; the list goes on.
I can't see this ending in anything other than chaos - which isn't an end; it will be the start of something, potentially, much worse.
Sadly, Russia launched 110 cruise missiles earlier this morning; the article was published 8:27am UK-time, so potentially lots of people out and about https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/29/7435051/
Perhaps a thread on Palestine is long overdue, would the mods allow it or would It get removed?
MOD - It would be removed. Please keep on topic.
I guess this thread has a clear victim.
The other one was up for discussion/ never ending argument, that the world's best politicians have not been able to resolve .
Bleak assessment of military prospects in 2024 from 5live earlier. Russia's industrial machine is now cranking into full effect while supplies from the West are starting to falter. Putin is waiting to see if the Republicans win next year, at which point it could be game over for Ukraine.
Was it ever realistic to expect Ukraine to regain all of the territory lost since 2014? I ask this because that has been the narrative behind western support since 2022 when in real terms, Russia had occupied a significant portion of Ukraine for the best part of a decade withoit much reproach. The idea that Russia would ever give up Crimea and the Dombas/Luhansk regions seems wildly optimistic to me, never mind the teritorrial too and fro of the last two years.
I can't see Ukraine achieving anything better than could have been achieved through negotiation during the Spring of 2022. Some commentators have cited the instant and unwavering support of our very own Boris Johnson as having an effect on the Ukranians decision to commit to an all out war.
After all, it's not as if at the time, out now redundant PM was looking for distractions from his own domestic issues was it?
I'm also not entirely confident about the 5 to 1 ratio of Russian to Ukranian losses that are being reported.