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Breach has been informed.
Maybe The other country (that we aren’t allowed to talk about).
Yep, seems so. Reading a bit higher up timba's post, he does make it clear
the US transferring their stockpiles in that other country (TOC)
I don't think we are specifically 'banned' from naming Israel? Just discussing the other conflict they are involved in.
I thought it meant Train Operating Company?
I don’t think we are specifically ‘banned’ from naming Israel? Just discussing the other conflict they are involved in.
I think cheering on the torture, rape, and murder of innocent civilians got a bit tiresome for the mods. Mentioning Israel isn't banned.
****ter / X is also dropping another notch towards the steaming cesspool of faeces with the reinstatement of Alex Jones
Who announced his return by immediately boosting the Rape-apologist grifter-extraordinaire Andrew Tate.
The only good things about this are that this should bump off a few more wavering Twitter advertisers and that with Jones already very much in the legal system's crosshairs getting this platform back almost guarantees that he'll post something that'll land him back in court getting another spanking.
I think cheering on the torture, rape, and murder of innocent civilians got a bit tiresome for the mods.
Number 37 is a series - "Things That Never Happened"
Apologies for the confusion caused by "TOC", but it proves that the post was read 🙂
Just to round that post off, President Zelenskyy will be addressing US Senators this afternoon, around 2pm UK-time and a private meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson. That's followed by a joint Biden-Zelenskyy press conference around 915pm UK, so we'll see what transpires https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-makes-11th-hour-plea-ukraine-war-funds-washington-2023-12-12/
That's backed by an open letter from the EU asking the US Congress to vote the aid through https://www.reuters.com/world/european-lawmakers-send-plea-congress-ukraine-aid-2023-12-11/
The EU representatives say that they have contributed as much as the U.S.* to Ukraine since Russia's invasion. The difficulty is the difference between what's been committed to and what's been provided; you can't fight (effectively) with a credit note 
(*The EU PPP-corrected GDP is very similar to the US GDP)
The current intransigence of Hungary's PM Orban might prevent another chunk in EU aid being committed. This is up for discussion later this week https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2023/12/14-15/
Ukraine needs materiel and not promises, which underlines the need for President Zelenskyy's dash between the continents
Three months to go to the Russian elections and opposition leader Alexei Navalny has disappeared from the Russian penal system https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-navalny-removed-prison-colony-whereabouts-unclear-supporters-2023-12-11/
Navalny: The documentary was pretty remarkable (he was in Germany and unknown to me literally just up the road from where I live). I did wonder about him going back to Russia and immediate arrest. I thought that it was a little strange he was under the impression he could exist with a degree of freedom to speak against Putin. Personally his "reach" might have been greater from outside Russia. There was no compulsion from Germany to leave, I believe.
It's a busy week politically. Nothing much has shaken loose in the US, although another $200mn in military aid has been granted to Ukraine.
"Without supplemental funding, we are rapidly coming to an end of our ability to help Ukraine respond to the urgent operational demands that it has," he (President Biden) said.<br />"Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine," he continued. "We must prove him wrong." https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3615637/biden-pledges-us-will-not-walk-away-from-ukraine/
The list of aid, which is from US stock... https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3615582/biden-administration-announces-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
On the 15th the US will close for congressional business so the funding window is rapidly closing, despite US intelligence suggesting that is exactly what Russia is relying on and Russia public broadcasting making that clear
14-15th will be the EU meeting ^^
17th will be the Serbian elections. Apparently 60% of Serbians believe that the President, Aleksandar Vucic is standing (he isn't). He's massively media savvy, has been tough on independent journalists and has refused to back EU sanctions on Russia saying that he's proud of Serbia's independent foreign policy. Serbia is in the EU.
He's worth googling for his comments on Kosovo and the polls that show a likely victory for his party
The GOP's determination to not be seen to give Biden a 'win' even if undermining that policy runs utterly contrary to US national interests is just gobsmacking.
They first did it with the covid vaccine roll out and now they're doing it with Ukraine, utterly venal and depressing.
Serbia, is not in the EU.
President Putin's "Direct Line" press conference/phone-in has been an annual event for more than 20 years and in 2022 was cancelled for the first time in the face of a successful offensive by Ukraine's military
The event was held yesterday amidst a feeling of renewed vigour within the Russian camp. President Putin let out that Russia had suffered over 300,000 serious injuries and deaths within a force of 617,000 Russian troops, which may well come back to haunt him politically as well as literally. This is quite an acceleration in 12 months since the death toll was officially around 6000; or you might choose to ignore the Sept 2022 figure. For context, the 300k figure is similar to "western" estimates
The US Senate (the upper house in Congress) will postpone the Christmas break and vote on Monday https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-expected-be-session-monday-border-aid-talks-continue-senators-2023-12-14/
You can assign any of several reasons to this decision, maybe the timing of the Russian Direct Line has shaken the MAGA crowd, maybe they've realised that in polling a majority of Americans support aid to Ukraine, but Ukraine isn't out of the woods yet.
Predictably, Hungary stalled EU aid to Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-holds-up-eu-deal-50-bln-euro-ukraine-talks-resume-january-2023-12-15/
EU Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn has said that there is a plan B, but wouldn't explain that further and talks are currently postponed until late-January
Denmark and Estonia both have aid packages planned. Denmark's aid is notable for its $1.8bn total and they are a driving force with Holland behind the supply of F16 aircraft to Ukraine
Estonia's aid is notable for its additional pledge of 0.25% GDP for four years
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/13/denmark-plans-to-send-usd-18-aid-package-to-ukraine-prime-minister-says/
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/14/estonia-rolls-out-new-e80-million-aid-package-for-ukraine/
Looks like Orban and the GOP remain Putin's most valuable assets.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67724357
If Ukraine ends up losing this it'll be largely down to them.
Does the EU have any way to get around Orbans blockage of aid?
Oban and the GOP are c****.
I reserve that word for special occasions/people and this is one of those times.
Orban can't (and won't) stop the money. He's just grandstanding. He could block Ukraine being granted accession candidate status though. But he won't do that either. He will use the threat of that veto to try and carve out power and funds, in trade offs. Lots of games of chicken ahead.
GOP are less predictable longer term, especially if they gain the White House with Trump. Yes, the current noise is, for most of them, just to look tough on immigration and more focused on "problems close to home" than their opponents... but there's more at play here. There are many who really do want America to leave Europe to fend for itself, ignoring history.
Maybe europe should learn from history and fend for itself???
Maybe europe should learn from history and fend for itself???
The reason why not can largely be summed up as 'because as a rule Europeans are reluctant to let a significant chunk of their population live in abject poverty just so they can maintain 11 Carrier battle groups"
However we are already starting to see that stance shift as we sadly enter a more chaotic and conflict ridden era, I suspect that if we see a 2nd Trump presidency that process will accelerate rapidly.
Some European countries (Poland springs to mind) are already well on their way to being armed to the teeth but nothing that's going to be available in the short to medium term is going to replace the USA's global networks of bases, Naval assets and supply dumps that give them such historically unparalleled force projection.
Currently NATO member European militaries are geared towards excelling at certain aspects that those countries are good at (Naval assets and Infantry for the UK for instance) but those units are designed to slot into an overall logistics and command structure that is overwhelmingly USA dominated.
Even if the whole of the EU pools their resources, creates a single united 'EU' army and consistently spends 4% of GDP on defence it will take decades to replicate anything close to what the USA has built.
We don't have to dominate the globe, but we should have enough to vigorously defend ourselves.
One argument I've seen made when people compare US and European military spending is that when the US spends megabucks on its military, it spends most of that money in the US, but when European countries spend it, a lot of that money also goes to the US, so a European country's defence spending isn't as good for its economy as the US's defence spending is for its.
Obviously it is easy to say "well European countries shouldn't be dependent on US military technology like that", but that seems to be a complicated subject itself. Whenever a European country (or more often a group of them) investigate developing something themselves they are often criticised for the cost and uncertainty involved compared to the cost of buying an existing product from the US. (With the US no doubt lobbying hard to see the money going its way.) So it can be politically hard to reduce dependency on US military technology.
If the US continues down a Trumpian path it may increasingly be seen as an unreliable partner and Europe will decrease its reliance on the US military and its technology, but that's unlikely to be a quick or easy process.
I would also speculate that one of the reasons that some European countries have been laggards when it comes to defence spending is at least partly due to the US being somewhat happy for them to be partly dependent on the US for security, for all the soft power/diplomatic leverage that brings.
Three SU-34s (!) Fighter-Bombers shot down in Kherson today. Confirmed by Russian Telegram posters. Rumour is that its the deployment of the recently supplied German Patriot battery. Good news as the Dnipro crossings have suffered from Russian glide bombing.
https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1738153536104382727
That's the sort of Xmas present I like!
Three SU-34's in a day.... ouch!
Bodes well for Ukrianes ability to keep it's toe hold on the left bank of the Dnipro.
Great news on the F-16's too.
The news regarding the Ukraine conflict has been pretty depressing of.late especially with the deadlock in the US, good to hear some good news.
Good news for Ukraine.
I wonder how they'll fare trying to bolster their forces.
I do feel however this all ends the victor will be rewarded with a mined to **** wasteland.
How are Belarus and Wagner doing?
Great but long overdue news about the F16s. Let's hope more will follow soon.
Three SU-34s (!)
👌 Top work.
I to wonder if more European countries will 'unilaterally' announce more support.
Does Ukraine actually have the manpower to do much more than cling on by their fingertips? Apparently draft dodging is becoming an ever increasing problem. Russia now has more than 600,000 conscripted, (they started the 'special military operation' with less than 200,000).
Whatever optimism may have existed in the autumn of last year evaporated with the failure of this year's summer offensive, the lack of territorial gains and the withering body count. It doesn't surprise me that young Ukranians are becoming increasingly reluctant to go and die in a ditch with little prospect of reclaiming any of the lost territory.
Looking back at comments from the first weeks of the war I posited that Ukraine would reclaim the lost territory West of the Dnipro (North of Kyiv and Western Kherson) and it was just a question of how much territory east of the river that Russia would take. I still think that's the case and can't see Ukraine making any more progress from this point on. Maybe Russia will make more gains before a stalemate will be reached.
Talk of Putin's demise in spring 2022 were premature. Wagner were used as a stop gap whilst Russia took a year to properly mobilise and learn from the mistakes made in the early stages of the conflict.
In truth, the conflict did begin as a 'special operation'', the intention being to remove the Zelinsky regime and impose a puppet government (they were never going to occupy the whole of Ukraine with less than 200,000 troops).
When the special operation failed it turned into a war that went badly for Russia in the first year but I think Russia knew it was going to go bad for them in the short term and were prepared to play the long game, (eerily similar to how things went for them in 1942, all be it with the roles reversed).
Depressing I know but the successes that Ukraine enjoyed in the north last September were a Chimera, as was the prospect of recapturing Crimea (something was heavily discussed on here during its summer).
The comparisons with Afghanistan don't really stack up. The Russian losses in Ukraine eclipse those from that conflict but Afghanistan doesn't have the same hold on the Russian psyche that Ukraine does. If this conflict ends with Russia gaining a third of Ukraine and not joining NATO then Putin will be able to sell that to the Russian public and he could outlast Zelinsky.
I'd love it to be otherwise.
Does Ukraine actually have the manpower to do much more than cling on by their fingertips?
There's no doubt that Ukraine is having some problems with recruitment largely because allegedly corrupt senior officials were sacked by President Zelenskyy, including Oleksii Reznikov, his former defence minister, and all of the regional heads of recruitment.
The new defence minister, Rustem Umerov, has chosen recruitment agencies instead that'll target people for jobs rather than sending everyone to the frontline, poorly-trained and poorly-equipped as Russia is doing. Mechanics will mechanic, etc. which is what they'll have to do when F16s arrive because pilots and aircraft won't be the bigger problem
Current estimates are 350,000 Russians killed and seriously injured against 70,000 Ukrainians. Tragically big numbers for sure but neither side has resorted to mobilisation and I'm not sure that politically Russia can afford to
I to wonder if more European countries will ‘unilaterally’ announce more support.
Some senior British officers expressed concern that we let so many Challenger tanks and their support go because stocks are low and there isn't a replacement. It's the same story with other drawdown items
Supplying Ukraine with artillery shells to use at the rate of thousands of per day is a challenge to current stocks and it's about time that the west took a coherent approach to make it worth the manufacturers' time to tool up and scale production up. There's little point approaching a manufacturer to ask for a few thousand here and a few thousand there because they'll be added to existing orders for completion whenever. Go to the same manufacturer with $1bn and I'd expect the scale to change
Western countries are turning to alternative suppliers. Japan, for example, has agreed to supply the US and UK with Patriot missiles (US) and 155mm shells (UK). This is a departure from their post-war defence export policy, however, the agreement will likely specify that they'll top western shelves up rather than be sent to Ukraine. This indirectly frees more UK and US stock for Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67798740
Ukraine needs a coherent, reliable supply and western navel-gazing and fighting over internal politics doesn't help the bigger picture of the national interest
On the subject of F16, here's a decent (IMHO) infographic describing how the aircraft will tip the balance... https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/FIGHTER-JETS/jnvwwqyylvw/
I think that we have to be mindful that Russia does have effective air defences, although it's been forced to move a proportion to Russian soil because of Ukraine's drone attacks. F16, like Challenger and Leopard tanks, aren't invulnerable
18 aircraft isn't going to be massively impactive to begin with, but they will bolster Ukraine's operational aircraft numbers
I've been wondering if the sudden rapid unplanned disassembly of the Su-34s might be an indication that the Ukrainians have AMRAAM armed F-16s already in service.
F16 is a lovely aircraft, but it's how it's the overall battle-space management and how it plugs in that'll be important, as well as the required armaments being available at all times, which means more backing from the US.
Hopefully they get their funding back on in January, politics is getting in the way yet again, think the US funding isn't too difficult, they're used to that whilst still supporting the Ukrainians, but the EU funding is getting more annoying by the looks of it, the EU has so many fractures in it regarding this conflict.
I’ve been wondering if the sudden rapid unplanned disassembly of the Su-34s might be an indication that the Ukrainians have AMRAAM armed F-16s already in service.
Interesting thought..
I’ve been wondering if the sudden rapid unplanned disassembly of the Su-34s might be an indication that the Ukrainians have AMRAAM armed F-16s already in service.
Almost certainly Patriots. If Ukraine was flying F16s, it would be publicly known. That would be impossible to be kept secret.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1738155691389387021
To expand further on Ukraine's recruitment policies, as alluded to on the previous page, ISW have since summarised an interview with defence minister Rustem Umerov on a future large-scale mobilisation.
The summary is a little way down the campaign assessment and begins, "Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov further detailed Ukraine’s efforts to establish a sustainable wartime force-generation apparatus and an effective defense industrial base (DIB) during an interview published on December 24." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2023 <br />
The approach by Ukraine to a large-scale mobilisation of 450,000 to 500,000 troops will include clear communication on the specialisation and training process, leave and demobilisation. The current partial-mobilisation is between 27 and 60 years, but this might be lowered to 25 years if the debate in the Ukrainian Parliament is compelling.
Ukraine will be aware that Russia has a labour-shortage estimated at 4.8million workers (using official Rosstat data) and will want to allow Ukrainians to complete their apprenticeships and higher education and post them appropriately. Ukraine will also be keen to avoid the spectacle of a million people migrating as Russia has experienced since this invasion began. 10% of Russian IT workers left in 2022 alone.<br />
Another SU-34 shot down over Mariopol (which makes 4!) and one SU-30SM shot down on Christmas eve. Ukraine also reporting glide bombing of the Dnipro East Bank and Kherson has now gone from 40 x 500kg bombs a day to none at all
https://twitter.com/Trotes936897/status/1739183232027902236
Was texting my Ukrainian friend from Kiev.
I'm fine. I came over to my brother's family in the western part of Ukraine for holidays.
The mood here is different from Kyiv... men are being hunted in the streets and dragged by the military to be drafted. This madness has no end... but I'm doing what I can to keep my mind stable and support those around me.
Can't believe it's been nearly 2 years of this. Hard times for everyone.
Anders Puck Nielsen had the same thought as me: