Forum menu
The Guardian reports that "Russia is having to pull air defence systems out of Kaliningrad, its external province on the Baltic Sea, to replace the ones it has lost in the Ukraine war, according to an intelligence update from the UK’s Ministry of Defence. “This follows an uptick in losses of SA-21 air defence systems in Russian-occupied Ukraine in late October 2023.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-642
Kaliningrad isn't in danger from Ukrainian missiles, but it'll be interesting if Russia were to redeploy AD systems to Russian cities. Russian forces in Ukraine are already short while Ukrainian drone attacks will cause consternation in an election year
Sanctions-busting by Russia is slowing as 3 Greek shipping companies won't be transporting their oil. The US has also clamped down more recently on companies in Turkiye and the UAE.
Anybody trading through the US-banking system, i.e. $, is a target https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/greek-shippers-exit-russian-oil-trade-us-tightens-price-cap-scrutiny-2023-11-23/
Looks like those pesky Russian workers have been careless with their cigarettes again..
Reports of a big storm in the Black Sea that may of damaged Russian Naval defences.
Could be a good time for naval drones.
Seems the Ukrainians have managed to hit an aircraft/missile factory too. At least the Russians are calling it what it is this time, though I suspect video evidence has forced their hand.
Meanwhile the UA is consolidating its foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro and the storms mentioned above may well have damaged infrastructure critical to supplying the Russians on the southern front, particularly the railway lines
Coincidentally, Russian "sleeper" agents have reportedly been activated in Ukraine, including in their civil and secret services https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3792275-danilov-russia-activates-network-of-spies-in-ukraine.html
Does this mean there's a pod of hunter-killer orca's swimming around the Black Sea now?
https://giphy.com/gifs/reactiongifs-FzV61A4U3guAw
Armed with general porpoise machine guns?
Coincidentally, Russian “sleeper” agents have reportedly been activated in Ukraine, including in their civil and secret services https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3792275-danilov-russia-activates-network-of-spies-in-ukraine.html/blockquote >
Mrs Budanov poisoned ...
This basically means that Russia doesn't have scope to spend more on the war.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1729809212769816652
Democrat US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has pushed the vote forward for additional aid for Israel and Ukraine.
Republican party Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is “confident and optimistic” that Congress can approve that aid in the “coming days” https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/11/27/speaker-johnson-confident-israel-and-ukraine-aid-passes-before-2024-but-hard-right-has-demands/
I had doubts about Mike Johnson on his appointment, but when he was under fire from the right-wing for pushing to break the Government spending deadlock he was able to get Donald Trump's blessing and demonstrated his ability to get along with both Democrats and Republicans to support aid to Ukraine.
The House of Representatives needs a speaker to pass laws and whatever you think about the politics, the outcome will hopefully be positive
This basically means that Russia doesn’t have scope to spend more on the war.
It also means that infrastructure, health, education, etc will suffer.
It's all very well expanding the Defence Industry, but pointless if your infrastructure and workforce can't deliver
This basically means that Russia doesn’t have scope to spend more on the war.
They are pushing at the limit of what is possible surely? The UK spent around 40% of its budget on defence for five years during WW2 (although it peaked at over 50% in 1945 apparently).
Worry not , there's enough embargo busting countries happily buying up cheap Russian oil to keep the lights on .
It's being able to buy tech that will be the issue. Or precision engineering parts to micron tolerance that Russia manufacturing really struggled with.
Optics , circuits, sensors and chips that modern armament require in volume have to come from 3rd party nations
Optics , circuits, sensors and chips that modern armament require in volume have to come from 3rd party nations
Is this not why there is a deal with China and North Korea?
This is well worth watching, Scillicon Curtain with Konstantin Samoilov
Replacement turbines have been delivered from China, and they don’t work 🤦🏻♂️🤷♂️
@matt_outandabout I don't think N. Korea will be supplying high tech though.
@thols2 Wasn't one of the drivers for the end of the Cold War that the Soviet economy was creaking under the strain of the defence budget?
I can't find it now but a BBC report the other day said that Russian mothers were starting to protest about the war - seem to recall that was a factor in them pulling out of Afghanistan, unrest from families?
Is this not why there is a deal with China and North Korea?
Sure, you can source things through sanction busting but it's expensive. The sanctions never completely cut off supply but they do limit supply and make it much more expensive to produce high-tech stuff. Russian manufacturing was based on imported factory equipment and software. Now that that's been cut off, they will need to either use local substitutes or evade sanctions.
there’s enough embargo busting countries happily buying up cheap Russian oil to keep the lights on .
Not necessarily to keep the lights on:
It also means that infrastructure, health, education, etc will suffer.
Which will be a particularly tough sell when you've been trying to sell this to your population as a limited, easy, cheap 'special military operation.'
I can’t find it now but a BBC report the other day said that Russian mothers were starting to protest about the war
Seen reports elsewhere as well, this seems to have spooked Putin more than anything, he's apparently sent goons round to the military families protesting to try and persuade them to stay at home, pay them off whatever.
Military families can't be tarr'ed with the usual 'unpatriotic 5th-columnists' brush so if these protests will be very hard for Putin to handle if they spread and since the root cause of them isn't going away any time soon that's only going to get harder.
It's hard to think of anything that will crater Russian morale harder and faster than phone videos of riot police beating the snot out of soldier's wives and mothers back home.
It’s being able to buy tech that will be the issue. Or precision engineering parts to micron tolerance that Russia manufacturing really struggled with.
"Turkish exports of goods to Russia that Moscow uses for military production have spiked in 2023, strengthening concerns about sanctions circumvention, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 27.
Exports from countries like Kazakhstan, Serbia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan fell in the second half of 2023 compared to the first months of the year but remain mostly higher than pre-war levels, Bloomberg noted."
https://kyivindependent.com/ft-turkish-exports-of-military-use-goods-to-russia-soar-in-2023/
I've checked for the big four European countries: France, Germany, Italy and the UK exporting to Kazakhstan. Germany's numbers doubled in 2022 https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports/kazakhstan
You guys can do the rest, it's depressing, but other countries do increase exports to that list of countries^^ as well.
NB the graph is only part of the story, e.g. UK increases exports to Serbia by $50mn, which looks a lot on a graph but pales compares to Germany's $1500mn increase to Kazakhstan
A railway tunnel between China and Russia has been damaged by an explosion. It's attributed to Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), but they don't comment on operations within Russia.
Logistics are being disrupted deep inside Russia
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-railway-tunnel-china-explosion-sabotage-1848265
Mikhail Khodorkovsky
Mr Dodgy. No wonder he's so anti Putin, Putin must have put an end to some of his more corrupt practices.
it's being reported that after the rail bombing in the tunnel, ukr also blew up a second train on the alternative route damaging a rail bridge. no reports on extent of damage. fingers crossed that line into China is disabled for a while at least
fingers crossed that line into China is disabled for a while at least
And that China are not super pissed off....
Worry not , there’s enough embargo busting countries happily buying up cheap Russian oil to keep the lights on
Thing is though, India are buying the oil in Rupees and China is paying in Yuan. Russia can't spend those rupees as they don't actually do much importing from India, and no-one else will use those for trade. Similar with the Yuan though to a lesser extent.
Ruble is down 40% on both those currencies too IIRC this year.
Russia might be selling oil but its basically been given magic beans for it which it can't use so its almost of no benefit to them.
breatheeasy+1
It's put the writing on the wall for the China-Russia alternatives to break the dominance of the US dollar and "western" interbank systems. 77% of world trade is in US$, 3% in yuan
The best that Russia has achieved since a spat with India earlier this year over payment in rupees has been to get payment in a mix of Hong Kong $, yuan and UAE dirham
EDIT to add: It's obviously a somewhat profitable trade, enhanced by reduced transportation costs because Russia invested in a fleet of old tankers that are unlikely to be adequately insured in the event of an eco disaster when they fall apart
After WW2 Russia sold oil at cost to get currencies flowing again, so there is historical precedent, and they currently trade more heavily with China than India
The border crossing blockade with Ukraine by Polish truckers will hopefully be easing today and allow goods to flow again https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-open-crossing-lorries-monday-unblock-polish-border-2023-12-03/
Essentially, Ukrainian drivers aren't constrained by EU haulage regs and are under-cutting Polish companies. Fuel is cheaper in Ukraine and labour rates are lower as well.
It isn't effecting the larger Polish trans-Europe companies but is causing financial hardship for smaller, local companies. It's not helped by Ukrainian border officials allegedly prioritising Ukrainian trucks
Sobering insider view of life in the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnipro east bank. Just one soldiers view expressing feelings of abandonment by the hierarchy. I doubt it's as simple as that and resupply and reinforcement under such constant Russian bombardment must be incredible difficult and costly. But also an admission from a Russian source that actually ousting the Ukrainians from the pocket is nigh on impossible too. Really hope there is some way of capitalising on the bridgehead, or at least suppressing Ru artillery/drones with HIMARS etc. so the Ukr marines aren't just pummelled constantly in their tiny toehold for the foreseeable.
makes for grim reading
Emergency funding bill fails to progress in US senate.
Difficult to see how any further funding proposals will progress unless Biden concedes to GOP demands for more action and funding to secure US southern border.
This will be very unwelcome news to Zelensky.
Newsnight tonight showing evidence of a new military port being developed in occupied Georgia.
Trump and his acolytes really are the gift that keeps on giving for putin aren't they?
Trump and his acolytes really are the gift that keeps on giving for putin aren’t they?
TBF they're not the only ones.
Chancellor Olaf Scholtz still won't commit to sending Taurus, their 300 mile long-range cruise missile, despite the UK and France sending Storm Shadow/ScalpEG months ago and those missiles being used effectively
Many countries have supplied subsistence amounts of weapons when they could be doing a lot more. The US has also geared up to supply a certain middle-eastern country that we can't name, but in theory could supply both countries from stock on presidential decree. The problem with that is underlined by the US transferring their stockpiles in that other country (TOC) to Ukraine earlier this year and available stocks may have been plundered https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-sent-israel-stored-munitions-ukraine-new-york-times-2023-01-18/
Russia has finally come out and sided with Hamas and Iran, which is interesting because their three most important relationships in the middle-east have always been Iran, Turkey and TOC; TOC was distinctly luke-warm in their support for Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine have recently given TOC scientists access to Iranian drone wreckage
Finally, President Zelenskyy has been touring some S. American countries to gain support there
I'd love to have understood the Zelensky Orban dialogue and Putin's Whale is threatening to derail the next set of EU meetings once again. 26 for and Hungary against...
****ter / X is also dropping another notch towards the steaming cesspool of faeces with the reinstatement of Alex Jones.... It's hard enough getting info from there thats reliable and I keep getting fed MFA Russia from many countries propaganda farms.
what's TOC? Palestine?
It’s normally Transnational Organised Crime, but not sure that works here.
Maybe The other country (that we aren't allowed to talk about).