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Obviously, if you were you’d know it’s a problem which lies entirely with rising wages
But surely, if you conscript young people and force them to fight in the war and then don't pay them, average wages must have fallen. So, military conscription should reduce inflation.
I recall having conversations on here back in the Spring about why the Russian economy was holding up so well all things considered, it'll be buried a few hundred pages back now.
At the time the general conclusion from most economists seemed to be that the Russian government was doing a very good job of cooking the books but that this would only work for so long and the wheels would probably come off in 'Late 2023 or early 2024'
I'm wildly over simplifying that debate of course but it does seem that what we discussed back then is starting to come to pass as predicted.
Whilst i think it's fair to say that the 2023 Ukrainian counter offensive hasn't seen the major gains we were hoping to see they've kept up an immense amount of pressure and it could be that 2024 will be when we start to see the cracks really start to appear on the Russian side.
it could be that 2024 will be when we start to see the cracks really start to appear on the Russian side.
Yes, on a serious note, the sanctions will now be starting to have a serious effect. The cost of imported goods will have jumped. Critical products such as factory machinery will be nearly impossible to source on gray markets so production capacity will fall as machinery wears out. Consumer prices will rise first because production will diverted to military needs. It would be interesting to see a detailed breakdown on what products are contributing most to Russian inflation-that's what will show which production sectors are suffering most from sanctions.
Looks like they're managing to source at least some stuff from North Korea now...
Looks like they’re managing to source at least some stuff from North Korea now…
Yep.
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1712033482350719051
Russia can’t supply its demand for war supplies
Surprisingly Russia is making a reasonable job of that in many areas; the bigger problems are troops to use supplies, paying troops and paying for the supplies.
“For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022, Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month,” wrote Jack Watling (from The Guardian link above).
Kazakhstan has free trade and currency agreements with Russia and this may be one sanction-busting route. "Western" and Chinese components are still finding their way into Russian (and Iranian) drones, another explanation is under dual-use exemptions.
Russia's bigger problems are precision components that they've always struggled to produce. These include artillery barrels and aircraft components, particularly on the passenger aircraft side of things. A gun barrel might only retain accuracy and range for between 2000 rounds (tank) and 10000 rounds (artillery), but it'll still hurl a big round several miles.
Russia's economy has been placed onto a war-footing. Russia is now chucking double the US GDP% into defence and 3x that of most individual NATO countries. The "west" is often supplying surplus to Ukraine that would be due for disposal anyway and isn't eating its arms reserves while saving money on safe disposal.
Russia defaulted on foreign debt last year for the first time in 100 years and its Government Bonds aren't rated by major agencies any longer. It's argued that Russia's economy had been a giant Ponzi scheme for 20 years before the 2022 invasion https://theconversation.com/empire-building-has-always-come-at-an-economic-cost-for-russia-from-the-days-of-the-czars-to-putins-ukraine-invasion-214667
Another problem is waiting for Russia; their younger male workforce is being sadly decimated
Another problem is waiting for Russia; their younger male workforce is being sadly decimated
Thier demographic outlook has been abysmal for decades now, why do you think the Russians are grabbing thousands of Ukrainian children?
Thier demographic outlook has been abysmal for decades now, why do you think the Russians are grabbing thousands of Ukrainian children?
There are 20th century precedents for kidnapping children in Franco's Spain and Argentina under its Military Junta.
"The kidnapping of Ukrainian children offers a reminder of how Putin and other Russian leaders have historically used children as pawns in international politics" https://theconversation.com/russias-kidnapping-of-ukrainian-children-is-not-unique-putin-and-others-have-long-used-children-as-political-pawns-208330
I understand your point and it may well be a reason, who knows? Whatever the reason, it's a vile act
Without wanting to start a stealth thread about Somewhere Else, I wonder if events there have altered at all how you think about the Ukraine situation. Of course, rationally, they should not, but it’s hard to be told you should care about one group but not another and I think it does undermine support for Ukraine when leaders condemn one party for doing exactly what they support another party doing.
This is going to be unpopular is suspect. But it looks like Ukraines summer counter offensive has largely been unsuccessful ☹️. The goal was to reach Melitopol, or at least Tokmak - neither have been achieved. I thought that it would be possible to slowly build pressure of the Russians and break their morale, leading to a collapse of the front line. This hasn’t happened either ☹️. I remember a YouTube video by peter zihan some time ago saying that Ukraine was inflicting 3 to 1 casualties- but this wasn’t enough, seems he may have been right?
The West has self deterred itself from fully supporting Ukraine - and condemning it what, I’m not sure?
Are there signs that Russia is under duress, maybe, is it enough, who knows?
it looks like Ukraines summer counter offensive has largely been unsuccessful ☹️. The goal was to reach Melitopol, or at least Tokmak – neither have been achieved.
I don't know about that. The idea that Ukraine would smash through the Russian lines and send a column of tanks to the coast was never more than a fantasy. The reality was that Ukraine aimed to degrade Russian forces and weaken them, thus bringing success closer to hand. I think Ukraine has been successful at that. It's not the stunning victory that people hoped for, but it's still a success. In particular, Russia's grip on Crimea seems to be greatly weakened.
But it looks like Ukraines summer counter offensive has largely been unsuccessful ☹️.<br /><br />
i think that is blindingly obvious. But I’m sure Russia will run out of ammo Real Soon Now, and as soon as Ukraine gets HIMARS. Leopards F16 it will all be fine.
I'm still optimistic so long as western support continues and most of the support Ukraine needs (I.e. the F16') are already in the pipeline to be delivered over the next 6 months.
Whilst the hope of a swift, decisive victory in 2023 has faded (largely due Russia blowing up the dam and flooding the area the Ukrainians planned to advance through). Almost all the progress has been in one direction and the Russian situation continues to degrade as Ukraine's improves (the attacks on Crimea for instance)
The biggest threat to their eventual victory remains a 2nd Trump presidency.
However, I do feel that Russia both at home and on the battlefield, will look immovable and unbreakable until the very last minute, such is the way of autocraticies.
But it looks like Ukraines summer counter offensive has largely been unsuccessful
problem is the Russian collapse in Kherson last year where they lost 100s of km in a few days set expectations high!
One of Putin's main motivators for seizing Ukraine was the worry of losing the use of Sevastopol .... and now they can no longer use Sevastopol!
i suspect Russia will begin its campaign of bombing power infrastructure this winter, in the hopes of freezing Ukraine & pushing prices up for the rest of us.
Putin will keep sending 10s of 1000s of men to be killed to capture a few 100 metres of land
That is a very good point, the spectacular rapid gains in Kharkiv a year ago gave many of a us unrealistic hopes.
What we're seeing now is the reality of what you can do against a numerous and fully industrialised opponent with vast reserves when you don't have limitless men and equipment to throw at them, nor do you have air supremacy
The Ukrainians have made steady progress on many fronts and struck some significant blows, but as that hasn't dramatically moved the lines on the map many don't see this as progress compared to what we saw last year.
Cursed by success essentially.
The sad truth is that Ukraine have done well, taking back areas and defending them, yes they've not continued to take land, but it's all about keeping and fortifying what they have, making it harder to take back, the Russians do the same, both sides basically poisoning the earth for one another.
I just don't see a clear end to this, said it many times, but it's just an absolute nightmare, Russia can't win, even if they did, how do they manage to be an occupying force with the limited resources, the whole war was about Russia rolling in, apathy and Russian supporters in Ukraine allowing a walkover, then Putin being happy. The minute they fought back, won ground and continued to fight, well it's just no end in sight now, it's just both sides justifying acceptable losses for the years to come.
The F16 was never a magic wand but it is a piece of the puzzle.
One of the main reasons the Ukrianian offensive has been such a slog is their chronic lack of supporting air assets, it was these experiences in the field that finally made the West realise they needed to step up on aircraft.
The F16 will allow them to compete on a much more equal footing and give them a lot more tactical options.
The Ukrainians have shown them are highly capable of using new systems effectively right off the bat, see the devastating debuts the Storm Shadows and ATACM had.
Integrating the F16 is a more complex task, hence the delays, but it will be a key part of Ukraine's operations in 2024
This is going to be unpopular is suspect. But it looks like Ukraines summer counter offensive has largely been unsuccessful
Like others^^ I wonder what is defined as unsuccessful. Ukraine needed materiel pouring in early on and some countries were notably reticent about providing what might have been game-changing weapons at a much earlier stage.
As it was Russia was allowed to dig in and mine huge swathes of countryside. Modern mine-clearing machinery will only clear relatively narrow lanes and both machines and lanes are a massive aiming point for artillery. This method of mine-clearance would ideally be achieved with air cover, which Ukraine doesn't have. Their only option was to resort to troops moving mines over a wide area by hand, which is slow, dangerous work probably best confined to the dark.
Russia was firing 20,000 rounds per day last November and even with supplies from NKorea, Russia only has a month's worth of artillery rounds. The EU has also stalled in its efforts to provide a million artillery rounds. You can't accelerate the war machine easily, not helped by the EU arguing over which country was going to supply what. The US supply of cluster munitions was in part driven by shortages of unitary rounds and Ukraine has never signed an agreement against their use (not that you'd be too worried when under an invasion).
The drained land around the Nova Kakhovka dam may be navigable by vehicles and could be an advantage to Ukraine with flooding washing (naval) mines away.
Key to Ukraine's success must be to continue to disrupt Russian supplies and to take advantage of Russian lapses like leaving aircraft close together after ATACMS had been announced.
Russia isn't weak so don't expect a quick win, but it is weakened. I expect that elections will be a pivotal moment in 2023-24 for many countries as shown by the election of PM Robert Fico of Slovakia earlier this month who campaigned on a pledge to end aid to Ukraine
Unfortunately I think it's looking increasingly like a new Korea. Some sort of DMZ eventually with occasional skirmishes and generational hatred from the Ukrainian side and who can blame them?
I just hope that eventually Ukraine is bombarded with EU money/ investment rather than bombs and becomes the new Poland. Financially anyway.
the election of PM Robert Fico of Slovakia earlier this month who campaigned on a pledge to end aid to Ukraine
It's not all in one direction, the election of Donald Tusk's cooaltion in Poland was a huge step in the other direction and in a much more consequential country.
I just hope that eventually Ukraine is bombarded with EU money/ investment
Considering that integrating a friendly and independent Ukraine into 'The West' will essentially secure European long term food security I would think that's a given.
Considering that the Russians have shown in the most emphatic way imaginable that any ceasefire or treaty they sign isn't worth the paper it's written on I suspect the main factor will be Ukraine's will to fight and that is one thing that doesn't seem to be in short supply so far.
Some sort of DMZ eventuall
I imagine Ukraine would accept that providing it's on the Russian side of the border.
It’s not all in one direction, the election of Donald Tusk’s cooaltion in Poland was a huge step in the other direction and in a much more consequential country.
I don't think that Poland's efforts were too shabby before the election. They registered 1.5mn refugees from Ukraine during 2022 alone and told Germany that they'd export their Leopard tanks to Ukraine if Germany wouldn't make the decision to allow the export. It's also a massive logistics hub for the "west" for Ukraine-bound supplies.
Poland's spat with Ukraine (IMHO) came about because the 2023 election polls didn't look good and pressure was on the ruling PiS party. They looked to their farmers for more votes and continued to restrict Ukrainian grain exports after the EU relaxed its rules on grain exports into the EU (and Poland)
The Polish president is PiS and is in post until 2025. Former PM Morawiecki (PiS) had little patience with the EU in the early days of the 2022 invasion, ""President Macron, how many times have you negotiated with Putin? What have you achieved? ... Would you negotiate with Hitler, with Stalin, with Pol Pot?"" (PM Morawiecki-April 2022). "Mateusz Morawiecki, the (former) prime minister of Poland, on Monday accused Germany of “standing in the way” of harder sanctions against Russia". (Both quotes from... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/04/pressure-mounts-germany-embargo-russian-energy-imports)
Morawiecki continued to move Poland away from the influence of the EU and towards the US and SKorea, hence the agreement to buy 360+ Abrams, HiMARS and Patriot. They've also bought 48 F16, 32 F35 and 48 SKorean FA50 trainers. The Polish Krab self-propelled gun is a SKorean chassis with a BAe turret.
Donald Tusk (AIUI) isn't yet PM, but he's pro-Europe and will move that way to unlock EU funds that are currently frozen. That will move him back into Germany's sphere of influence so we'll see how that dynamic works out. I don't see that Ukraine's fortunes will improve because of it
It was a generalization as I didn't want to end up writing an essay.
The PiS party were clearly flirting with a more populist angle on Ukraine and it doesn't appear to have worked, which is good.
Donald Tusk was involved in the student wing of Solidarity in the 70's and 80's and was imprisoned by the Soviets at one point, whilst he's no angel his commitment to democracy is pretty unimpeachable he has no reason to love Russia.
I think he may be able to have a positive influence on the German position as they and the rest of the EU will be seriously grateful to not have to deal with the PiS anymore and will be very keen to give him a few 'wins' to reward what is likely to be a much more constructive approach from Poland.
Seems some more strikes overnight in Crimea.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1718902201471348773
A couple of sanctions updates:
In August the UK announced that Belarus, Iran and NKorea would have further sanctions imposed to limit drone and electronics sales. This included specified people and businesses in other countries, e.g. Dubai and Slovakia
The US has just announced a long list of sanctions of mainly Russian businesses and individuals in the energy, mining and aerospace sectors (amongst others) that both procure and manufacture defence and military hardware. "Individuals" include their spouses and adult children
These include Zala Aero who make the KUB-BLA and Lancet loitering strike drones and have just announced the Italmas strike drone. The list also includes a long list of supply chain companies, e.g. electronics, AI software, polymers, aluminium, etc.
https://www.state.gov/taking-additional-sweeping-measures-against-russia/
The generally accepted scope of sanctions-busting includes nationals of the issuing country, UK and US in this instance. It also includes transactions taking place in UK and US territory and transactions using UK and US banking systems.
The US has announced a further military aid package to Ukraine. The drawdown list, i.e. from US stock, is mainly explody-things including air-defence missiles, HIMARS missiles, TOW missiles, artillery rounds, etc.
The Kalibr cruise missile carrier Askold was reportedly hit with SCALP missiles in the Crimean shipyard at Zaliv.
It hadn't seen combat yet and was in the final stages of tests before loading it up with missiles to strike Ukraine https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/05/ukraine-hit-modern-russian-missile-ship-in-occupied-crimea/
so unsurprisingly this thread has gone a bit quiet.
just saw this snippet on isw, I mean I can see this will help with rationale grownup decisions that might be needed
<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: #424242; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ramzan Kadyrov appointed his 15-year-old-son Adam to a prominent position in a Chechen security service
Ukrainian efforts to make Crimea a strategic albatross around Russia's neck seen to be continuing apace.
The story of the last few weeks seems to have been constant little nibbles, moves and strikes, each one making the Russian occupiers life harder. I suspect this will continue be the pattern over the Winter.
It's fair to say we all hoped for the decisive Ukrainian advance in 2023, that's not going to happen but the momentum remains very much in their direction and the utter carnage they doled out to the Russians at Adiivka suggests that a successful Russian attempt to change the war's direction of travel is unlikely.
I also suspect that 'General Winter' may not be in the Russian's side this time.
A Russian-fired missile struck a Liberian-registered cargo ship yesterday as it was entering Odessa. The missile killed the maritime pilot and injured crew members.
The ship would have been en route to China with a cargo of iron ore and Russia has been strangely silent!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67360440
Several ships have been damaged by Russian action, including a Romanian mine-sweeper.
We'll see what NATO has to say but I'm not holding my breath
We’ll see what NATO has to say but I’m not holding my breath
NATO will say exactly what they've said up until now and not escalate obvious provocation. Let China take it up with them.
NATO will say exactly what they’ve said up until now and not escalate obvious provocation. Let China take it up with them.
I'm quite sure that NATO will do nothing, including getting moving on their promise made in October, "2. Recognising that Russia’s actions highlight the increasing strategic importance of the Black Sea region to Euro-Atlantic security, as acknowledged in the 2022 Strategic Concept, and the need for the development of a comprehensive Black Sea strategy" (also item 18 on the same agenda)
Whilst always an awkward bedfellow in NATO, Turkey is key here as they completely control access to the black sea.
After trying to play both sides at the start, Erdoğan seems to have finally decided that this is Turkeys chance to greatly expand his nation's influence in the area at the expense of a floundering Russia.
Russia's attempts to sell thier Ukraine War to the Global South have also not been entirely unsuccessful so by hitting their shipping they're not only antagonising them they're also undermining the whole 'it's all the West's fault' narrative that thier propaganda outlets have been pushing so hard to African and Asian audiences.
Strategically this is actually quite helpful.
Russia’s attempts to sell thier Ukraine War to the Global South have also not been entirely unsuccessful
The Global South doesn't really mean much. It's just a grouping of the less wealthy non-European countries. It includes India and China, which have ongoing hostilities and very different foreign policy objectives. It also includes Vietnam, and the Philippines, both of which have serious territorial disputes with China. I'm not sure if it includes Taiwan and South Korea, but apparently, it does include Singapore, which is a very wealthy country. Whatever the case, only Iran and North Korea have really shown open support for Russia, while China is just doing whatever they think improves China's strategic position, any support they show for Russia is based on self-interest, not any principled stand.
The Global South doesn’t really mean much.
Fair comment, as always I'm trying to to keep my posts to a sensible length a degree of generalization tends to sneak in and that was the best shorthand I could think of at the time without getting into listing countries.
@molgrips - Thanks, I have an academic background in Geopolitics but never ended up working in the field so this thread is basically my way of diverting my intense desire to bang on about the situation to anyone who'll listen, I try to stick to stuff I'm confident that I can stand by and like to think I'm being informative.
It's also kinda therapy for me and it may just have saved my marriage.
I haven't posted much here recently but I try to keep abreast of developments in Ukraine and always check in on this thread. I just haven't felt I've had anything of value to add recently. I echo the comment above about valuing the contributions of Hatter, Timba, thols2 and other regular posters.
I'd agree this thread is a good place to find sensible updates.
Good to hear it's therapy for you Hatter!
From those people with a Geo politics background who is god to follow on YouTube etc. Have watched some Peter Zeihan stuff recently but need some other sources.
Reporting from Ukraine is very good and concise everyday.
The Russian Dude, is a bit longer but covers Russian propaganda as well as updating on the war.
Obvious to some but not all.
Just to be clear direct involvement of NATO would result in Russia receiving what's known in academic circles as 'an ass-whoppin' even just Poland getting involved now would be pretty decisive in the field.
It would also almost certainly bring China into the war and greatly the increase the chances of Russia going nuclear.
It would effectively be WW3 and everything that brings with it.
So, much as I'd love to see the USA and their allies do what they do best, go full Desert Storm and swiftly restore Ukraine to their rightful 2014 boundaries, the current approach is, whilst knotty, unsatisfying and very harsh on the Ukrainians who actually have to the fighting and dying, the least bad option.
Whoaaa, that went sideways fast 🙂
Who said anything about dragging NATO into a conflict? The NATO resolution is about stability in the Black Sea region and includes the need to develop a coherent strategy there.
A French ship was the last major NATO power to patrol in January 2022, before Russia invaded Ukraine and mined the Black Sea. Between the French ship leaving and the invasion in February, 16 Russian naval vessels patrolled the area.
When Russia invaded, the nearest NATO ship was in the Med. NATO has recognised the problem repeatedly and have done nothing about developing that strategy, despite Russia's red lines bluster; there's a list here... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
In August Russia boarded the Turkish-owned cargo ship Sukru Okan after firing warning shots to stop the vessel in international waters. That breached a NATO red line, but still NATO hasn't agreed a strategy
Whilst always an awkward bedfellow in NATO, Turkey is key here as they completely control access to the black sea.
Yes and no. Turkey controls the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, which allow access from the Med, however NATO members Bulgaria and Romania both have Black Sea naval bases, which is how/why a Romanian mine sweeper was damaged by a Russian naval mine