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So utterly grim, an echo of the worst excesses of Stalin. Those arguing against further aid to Ukraine seem to completely ignore the sheer horror that a Russian victory brings in its wake.
Exactly.
To lose to Russia puts not only every Ukrainian at greater risk than they are now, but any other country who borders Russia.
@ DT78
Not trolling at all. Just curious and a bit disappointed that open discussion has been shut down. Yes, there were a few contentious posts, just like on this thread. But somehow you can get away with celebrating deaths on here, quite a bit of gloating to be honest. Yeah, just disappointed.
On the other thread people seemed to bring their own agenda into the room and ignored what was actually happening which was truly grim. On this thread its more a discussion than an argument and the general consensus is Ukraine are the good guys Russia the bad guys.
Anyway to get back on topic, my understanding is ATACM transfer was agreed a couple of months ago. 20 of the shorter 165km range cluster munition missiles were transferred in secret. There is a bit of conversion work for the HIMARS/M270 carriers to use them.
Footage of another 6 launched tonight is out. I hope this means confidence to supply more stuff for Ukraine as that will end this quicker.
But somehow you can get away with celebrating deaths on here, quite a bit of gloating to be honest.
I don't see that. People celebrate Ukrainian successes and resistance, of which Russian deaths are a sad and unfortunate part but that's not celebrating the deaths themselves or 'gloating'.
In fact you will see many people empathising with Russian conscripts being sent to die in war not of their own making.
I too am sorry the Palestinian/Israel thread was closed. It's an important issue that people feel strongly about. Maybe it might be opened again if people learn to keep their tempers and egos in check.
In the meantime please don't take your frustration out on here, by petulantly insulting posters on an unrelated thread.
You're right. I apologise. I didn't intend to insult anyone. Just frustrated. Time for bed. Sorry.
Thanks. I get the frustration.
Anyway to get back on topic, my understanding is ATACM transfer was agreed a couple of months ago
I cannot get my head around the fact that this was in the Guardian a month ago, on NBC before that, and Russia still didn't move their materiel out of harm's way and/or separate their stationary machinery so that one strike didn't do as much damage
There's obviously a political will to keep a foothold on Crimea and everything is expendable to maintain the illusion. Plus ça change as the English say, fundamental lack of foresight is a constant from day 1 of this 3-day operation
The issue for Russia is you need attack helos fairly close to the front line so they can react quickly to Ukrainian attacks and support RA ground forces. Also, if Ukraine isn't able to track them on radar, then NATO certainly is and will feed the intel back to Ukraine so if they had a long flight time they'd be at more risk of being shot down.
Their discipline in keeping good separation etc. between aircraft at airbases does seem a bit poor but given the ATACMS that were used had cluster warheads + shrapnel can wreck aircraft rather than it needing a direct hit then even if they were decently spaced you could still do a lot of damage to an airbase with the handful of missiles Ukraine used.
Maybe it might be opened again if people learn to keep their tempers and egos in check.
Hi, you must be new here, welcome to STW.
Any links to the latest use of ATACMS? I am trying to avoid 'X' if I can, but its hard to find a better more immediate source of what is going on. ISW is good, but is generally 24hrs behind the curve.
As for talk of 'the other thread'. If it was a sane, information sharing / having a discussion type thread I'm sure it would have carried on. As it was you had people deliberately trying to derail things and being pretty offensive. So either it needs to be shut down or those people given timeouts. As for the troll comment I stand by that- deliberately derailing a thread (this one) to talk about something else that'll you know will get a bite...thats trolling.
I think the mods made it pretty clear why the other thread was closed. IIRC, this thread got closed for a while early on but things have calmed down now. This is a mountain biking forum and the mods get sick of having to deal with squabbling over politics. They have my sympathy, I've had a few warnings and a brief ban, I think they've been extremely patient on the whole.
Supposed to have fired off 6 ATACMS last night- not seen any reports of targets 🤷♂️
I've not found any reference either. some talk on isw about a potential bridgehead at kherson as well.
There’s obviously a political will to keep a foothold on Crimea
Putin along with many of his predecessors is obsessed with Crimea. As far as he's concerned it's the birthplace of Russia. This is to do with the conversation to Christianity of Prince Vladimir in 988AD. It's been a long Russia tradition to try to reclaim the area for the Orthodox faith, going as far back at Catherine the Great, who even went as far as to name one of her sons Constantine, as he was going to reclaim the Eastern Roman Empire and resurrect it.
Putin thinks that now his job.
More specifically it's huge part of Putin's personal hold on power.
It seems like a long time ago but back in 2012/13 Putin's hold on power was looking decidedly shakey, the Russian economy and he was facing widespread (by Russian standards) protests for his flagrant interference in the 2012 election.
Then came 2014 and the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity, ever the opportunist Putin's sent in his 'little green men' who took Crimea with hardly a shot fired and the world shrugged it's shoulders.
To most of Russia this was a masterstroke, Putin's grip on power was suddenly unassailable and he used that sudden extra bandwidth to brutally suppress any domestic opposition and massively amplify Russian military and disinformation operations globally.
A huge chunk of Putin's legitimacy in the eyes of the Russian public therefore stems from the capture of Crimea, it's loss is one of the very few things that would almost certainly lead to his rapid downfall.
It's therefore also one of the surest paths to a decisive Ukranian victory and an end to the war.
Their discipline in keeping good separation etc. between aircraft at airbases does seem a bit poor but given the ATACMS that were used had cluster warheads + shrapnel can wreck aircraft rather than it needing a direct hit then even if they were decently spaced you could still do a lot of damage to an airbase with the handful of missiles Ukraine used.
During the Cold War era aircraft were regularly widely dispersed; you could see Harriers taking off from the woods around RAF Wittering
The general idea was revived during Exercise Agile Stance in 2021, ironically as a response to Russian weapons. Helicopters would be easy enough to disperse so that 1 ATACMS = 1 aircraft
It doesn't stop strikes on immovable maintenance facilities, but a hardened building won't be bothered by a cluster strike. It complicates security from partisan attack, but there's shirley more chance of defending against that threat than against a missile?
Airfields with proper dispersals and hardened hangars are the gold standard but are expensive to provide for the whole of a fleet the size of Russia's. They are obviously static and don't allow assets to move flexibly during a conflict, so less than ideal fields have to be used. Doesn't excuse the rubbish dispersal though!
The hardened shelters aren't invulnerable though. Yes, they'd laugh at cluster bomblets/submunitions but there are smart munitions with warheads capable of defeating them. And these days, that low cost disruptive technology - the FPV drone could just fly in through an open hangar door and destroy a fast jet with $100 worth of duct taped on RPG warhead.
Bottom line - nowhere is safe for Russian aviation. Oh dear. How sad. Never mind....
Ukrainian forces have again crossed the Dnipro, this time about 15km from the ongoing bridgehead around Poima and Pishchanivka.
Russian forces will be forced to take resources away from other current battles and will be more stretched than ever https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/22/ukrainian-units-conducted-another-landing-operation-across-dnipro-while-russians-were-struggling-to-eliminate-the-previous-bridgehead/
The question remains whether the Russian assaults at Adiivka are doing the same.
So far the Ukrainians seem to be holding thier ground very effectively whilst inflicting horrendous casualties on the Russian attackers, who are already reporting to the horrific 'meat wave' assaults last seen in Bahkmut.
But is it really as effortless as portrayed or has Ukraine had to pull sizable reserves to blunt that push?
Adiivka and the the Dnipro crossing could both prove to be pivotal points in the war, especially after the ATACMs just wasted a large chunk of Russians remaining attack helicopters.
Time will tell whether these are a distraction or the start of something more consequential.
Time will tell whether these are a distraction or the start of something more consequential
Absolutely. The more that Ukraine stretches Russian logistics the better, but that cuts both ways particularly if you have to cross a river to supply your forces.
Russian forces have been seen in 1930s GAZ-AA 1.5T payload trucks supplying forces around Avdiivka. I'm impressed that they've got them running
number of destroyed ru vehicles at adivika are crazy if true
number of destroyed ru vehicles at adivika are crazy if true
Is this on Twitter?
The Russian Adiivka casualties have been horrendous and pretty well verified, they're not really in doubt, what I'm slightly skeptical about is how easy Ukraine is making it look there.
If course it could be argued this is the first time we've seen Russia assaulting well prepared Ukrainian positions since Ukraine received all their new kit and NATO traning.
Adiivka has been on the front lines more or less since 2014 so the Ukranian defenses there are far more well developed than those in Bahkmut. Maybe this has elevated defenders advantage to new heights and hence why we're seeing Ukranians utterly annihilate the units sent against them without breaking a sweat.
I sure hope that's the case but it seems a bit too good to be true.
Reports of 90 military vehicles of all types being destroyed or damaged over a 3 day period where the RU force tried a pincer attack on a large pocket.
Fpv drones seemed to do alot of damage from the reports I saw. Not huge losses in manpower as the infantry can run off before any on board munitions go bang . Coupled with artillery strikes on stranded troop carriers / tanks.
The attrition rates must mean units of the RU force cease to become operational .
the zapp Branigan technique
"Not huge losses in manpower as the infantry can run off before any on board munitions go bang"
i think 1000 men a day is a lot for even Russia
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1715994301199479049?t=urUr8Y7saQgw57XAPA4KBA&s=19
they're using meat wave assaults as Wagner did at bakhmut
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1715853757706027274?t=StjOuQ0Wizi7aef_pVNfmA&s=19
and reiterated earlier Ukrainian reporting that Russian forces lost 50 tanks, 100 armored vehicles, and 900 personnel during attacks on Avdiivka on October 19.<br />
from isw. In a single day. Maybe overegged but does seem to be evidence of significant losses
15 Artillery systems.
Cripes, you really shouldn't be losing that many artillery pieces when you're on the attack, suggests that the Ukrainian drone operations and counter-battery fire are doing some serious work in the Adiivka sector.
If Ukraine has the artillery advantage there it could explain the disparity in casualties.
...suggests that the Ukrainian drone operations and counter-battery fire are doing some serious work in the Adiivka sector
Consistent complaint from Russian Telegram channels, including Major General Popov who was dismissed in July for his criticisms that Russia has poor counter-battery capability https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66185545
Ukraine has been mass-producing their Zoopark 3 since 2020 along with the "west" supplying counter-battery systems https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/role-artillery-war-between-russia-and-ukraine
Combine that with UAVs, Excalibur guided rounds and more recent use of cluster munitions and Ukraine has an enviable capability
It's not over till it's over.
While the tactics were inhuman, Bahkmut did fall
Bahkmut was nowhere near as well fortified as Adiivka is.
However, I can't see Ukraine wanting to pull any reserves away from the main push in the South so those defenders are more or less on their own.
That said, they seem to be fighting like tigers so far, the Kraken regiment seems to be highly active in the area and very much 'taking care of business' as they have done consistently throughout this conflict.
Time will tell, there's heavy rain forecast for that part of Ukraine this week so the mud may be an increasingly major factor soon.
With Surovkin sidelined Gerasimov is in charge and he seems to favour just throwing endless numbers of men at the problem regardless of the costs in lives.
Doesnt bode well for Russia, the deathtoll will be huge on both sides
Time will tell, there’s heavy rain forecast for that part of Ukraine this week so the mud may be an increasingly major factor soon.
Which I assume benefits a fixed defender compared to a driving / walking / tunnelling (!) attacker.
Good.
Anyone fancy a (short term) job as head of Lukoil?<br /> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russian-oil-boss-becomes-third-171041964.html
Which I assume benefits a fixed defender compared to a driving / walking / tunnelling (!) attacker.
I assume that Russia was trying to claim a quick 'win' to wave about before everything bogs down for the winter. Planting a flag on slag heap for a few hours seems is probably worth 10,000 casualties to someone.
Whilst mud season arriving will be good news in Avdiivka, it won't help Ukraines's main effort in the south which has seen real progress in the last few weeks with further gains towards Tokmak, the enlarged bridgehead over the Dnipro and the highly successful initial ATACMS strikes on the Russian helicopter fleet in the area.
The Ukrainians have already stated that they have no intention of taking a pause over the Winter and I suspect this is the right call, every time we've seen a lull in the fighting it tends to proceed a series of Russian successes as it gives their logistics time to catch up and the troops already in place time to dig in.
Making the right call doesn't make executing any kind of advance in the Mid-Winter slop any easier of course.
Anyone fancy a (short term) job as head of Lukoil?
Gave them a call and they wouldnt switch the luxury penthouse for a bungalow so I am out.
After our troops struck the airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk, we see that the occupiers are relocating their aviation further. Specifically, they are attempting to redeploy it from the territory of our Crimea. This is a good sign. First, the Russian fleet flees, and now Russian aviation is fleeing. The habit of running will be very useful for Russia. Because they will have to flee all our land.
Russia has learnt a lesson a month too late...
I'm not an economist. Is this a supply or demand problem?
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1717907214600409472
Actually, I guess it doesn't matter, Russia can't supply its demand for war supplies. Must suck to be Russian right now.
I’m not an economist. Is this a supply or demand problem?
I hope for both. And that 15% is just the start of an upward trajectory.
Again, one of the few things that could bring old Pootin down is a completely out of control economy.
I’m not an economist. Is this a supply or demand problem?
Obviously, if you were you'd know it's a problem which lies entirely with rising wages, just like in the test of the world.