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The biggest recipients were China, Spain, Turkey and Italy." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-61759692
Good to hear it’s therapy for you Hatter!
+1 👍
Unconfirmed, obviously, but this suggests that Russia has depleted any reserves it has and is struggling to cover all the Ukrainian attacks.
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1723478355377283334
Im just going to add that i too find this thread informative and useful
I want to kniw whats going on but I don't have the emotional bandwidth to dig thru all the info out there
To have a few folk who know what they are doing providing this info is great for me and i can be confident that given tbat the folk doing it are usually good at cutting thru bullshit its probably as good a summary as i will find
Thanks
Unconfirmed, obviously, but this suggests that Russia has depleted any reserves it has and is struggling to cover all the Ukrainian attacks.
I found the last line of the X (Twitter) image a good summary, "...we need to think most and most often about how we don't screw up the war and the country along with it".
Russia is fighting to a standstill; their military production lines should have peaked now but they're barely keeping pace with need even with imports from NKorea and Iran that are no doubt costing them the sharing of technical expertise and industrial secrets.
Their male population is faring no better
Also saw a story this week about a unit of Russian conscripts beating thier officer to death after weeks of ill treatment.
Russia and its outriders have every incentive to outwardly portray them a implacable foe who is taking this war in their stride as that is the best way to undermine Ukraine's Western support.
The reality is quite different but trying to predict exactly how and when this will have an effect on the battlefield is still extremely difficult.
The momentum remains in Ukraine's favour, the left bank bridghead is very interesting but I can't pretend I know whether this is going to turn into something bigger or just another way Ukriane have found to give Russian strategists ulcers.
The current (11th Nov) ISW update seems to be a useful one to link into for a quick round-up:
Around 37 missiles and drones were launched against targets in Ukraine, including Kyiv for the first time in 52 days.
This may be a prelude to Russian strikes against energy and other infrastructure as they did last winter, but the key difference is that Ukraine is far better prepared. Their infrastructure will be hardened and hopefully more dispersed with spare parts ready. Many more air defence systems are now deployed as well.
The UK and US have also announced further sanctions to curb Russian acquisition of parts for drones and missiles (see posts ^^)
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) doesn't officially comment on attacks inside Russia, however, cigarette-smokers have caused problems, including the derailment of a freight train, an explosion at a gunpowder factory and a fire at a missile factory near to Moscow.
GUR does comment on attacks inside occupied-Ukraine where two Russian landing craft were sunk by naval drones in Crimean waters on the 10th.
These attacks and sanctions impact Russia's ability to maintain logistics routes and their low stocks and reliance on imports put Russia at a disadvantage.
Ukraine isn't known for its navy, but it's ability to damage a major navy during a land conflict is astonishing!
Learning that lesson and reinforcing Bulgaria and Romania would cover a massive weakness in NATO's Black Sea flank (which isn't implying that NATO should attack Russia should anyone think that)
Ukrainian forces have held positions on the "Russian" side of the Dnipro river at Krynky for three weeks or so. This is impressive because logistics are massively vulnerable during docking to load and unload. Ukraine has also crossed the Dnipro further west at Poima and Pidstepne; three crossings all within the Kherson region.
"Russian infantry-led frontal assaults highlights the challenges Russia will face in using massed infantry assaults to offset the problems contributing to the current positional warfare identified by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi"
Positional warfare isn't stalemate as some commentators have framed it, it's about a breakthrough to shift balance. Russia seems to have chosen massed infantry assault, which reflects their current problems in logistics, air cover, etc.
Ukraine is struggling with this tactic simply because of mass, however, the balance will shift because Ukraine has superiority in other areas which is why we're seeing massive Russian losses
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-11-2023
Crossed with @hatter on their bridgehead comment. It seems to be a strong position, but who knows how it will develop 🙂
I hope it develops into a route that allows undermining of the defences from behind.
I don't know if this was already posted, but the US DoD has almost spent all of the allocated funding for Ukraine:
"The urgent need for this package to get approved and passed by Congress continues to grow," she said. As a result, "we have been forced to meter out our support to Ukraine."
Putin's strategy of waiting for his allies in the Republican party to come to his aid may yet succeed.
Ditto what @tjagain said.
Thanks, especially to the regular posters.
This thread is important to me. Especially with the invasion of Ukraine being bumped down the news of late and not being on X.
whenever I read about ru attacking I always think how ****ing grim it must be for the conscripts. many will be just normal guys been given a gun and told to go shoot some other people and of you don't your own side will shoot you. honestly don't know what I'd do if I was faced with that choice
@oldnpastit point 4 in the DOD summary, "Accelerate the reform process to speed Ukraine’s path to the European Union and to attract investment" seems to be underway. Expect Hungary to object because PM Orban firmly believes that Ukraine has a chunk of Hungary, which will slow progress https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-says-eu-must-not-start-membership-talks-with-ukraine-2023-11-10/
The EU believes that it can get €50bn through next month https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-has-plan-b-if-hungary-vetoes-50-billion-euro-aid-ukraine-2023-11-10/
Yep, I'd echo Tj too. Every morning I read the ISW report and this thread is the thread I look for first. I'm still listening to Ukrainecast too. We are unusual though, as a barber I get to chat to lots of different people and hardly any of them follow this at all.
I'm sure that I heard an American forces chap say that the costs to them so far are about 5% of their DoD budget and therefore incredibly good value.
@timba how is that NATOs problem? Sounds like a UN issue which NATO partners can participate in but aside from that boarding a Turkish ship and damaging a Romanian minesweeper are not worth flinging a fleet at the Black Sea along with all the escalation issues that brings.
Cooler heads are prevailing, I like it that way.
This made me chuckle. It's weird to remember the build up to the war and relive the denialism about Russia's intentions long after it was blindingly obvious what was unfolding.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1723664262856675336
Cooler heads are prevailing, I like it that way.
I couldn't agree with you more...
Russia thrives on instability and the missile strike on a Liberian-flagged cargo ship and forcible boarding of a Palau-flagged cargo ship feed into that.
The difficulty is that the Liberian-flagged ship is owned by a company based in Cyprus, an EU country which is aligned with NATO member countries. The Palau-flagged ship is Turkish-owned, which is a NATO member country.
It's believed that the Liberian-flagged ship was struck by an anti-radar missile while using its electronics during piloting and docking. A firm NATO strategy would, IMHO, reduce the impression of indecision within NATO and stabilise the region by discouraging further use of inappropriate force by Russia.
A Russian mine sank the Estonian (NATO member) cargo ship, Helt in March 2022, and another mine damaged the Romanian minesweeper in September 2022, both in the Black Sea
If Russia wants to ensure that cargo ships don't transport military equipment to Ukraine then they could be responsible and rejoin the UN grain deal where they had the right to search ships; it isn't all about the behaviour of NATO
...the question is not "how is that NATOs problem?" It's more how many times do we risk the possibility of a wronged country wading in against Russia because NATO isn't deterring attacks through being indecisive?
Well we're clearly going to disagree, moving on...
Be careful, that's how wars start
That is one sides/mans view, but seems pretty accurate (and stirring) to me.
EDIT - I was also taught an 'English' word by a Ukrainian; Revanchist
Interesting short vid from Peter Zeihan on the state of the Russian Navy. Slightly clickbaity title but still worth a watch. Daft hat though!
Watched that earlier, it is an impressively silly hat.
Some confusion amongst Russian press releases. "We're withdrawing from the Dnipro region"
"No, we're withdrawing the story that we're withdrawing..." https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-map-latest-news-b2446315.html
Interesting short vid from Peter Zeihan
Some bloke blethering in a slightly random thought way, selfie filming while walking in a snowstorm with a silly hat on?
How do I know he is a suitable source and use of 6 minutes of my time?
He puts out a new video every day, he leans towards hyperbole but his understanding of how the world works is pretty sound, he offers a good bite-sized daily update on Geopolitics with a heavy dose of statistical analysis, especially regarding demographics.
He also seems pretty free of the usual US tribalism, he's no fan of Trump but unusually caustic about Obama's foreign policy as well.
Is he infallible? Of course not! But with the variety of topics he covers it's hard to see how you could follow him and come out less informed than you went in.
You could do a lot worse, you just need to get past his hiking obsession and vast array of suspect headgear.
Some bloke blethering in a slightly random thought way, selfie filming while walking in a snowstorm with a silly hat on?
How do I know he is a suitable source and use of 6 minutes of my time?
Agree with Hatter's somethingion. Slightly dumbed down geopolitics for easy consumption, with an occasional tendency for doom prophesies but I think his knowledge base is sound and his conclusions mostly reasonable.
But with the variety of topics he covers
Indeed, pretty wide ranging stuff. He even did an assessment of the viability of an independent Scotland which I would imagine might burst a few blood vessels on here! 😉
Thats a great vid, thanks for posting. I kind of liked the silly hat too.
you just need to get past his hiking obsession and vast array of suspect headgear.
Username checks out
He puts out a new video every day
What's his background/ day job?
What’s his background/ day job?
Hes a full time geopolitics analyst/pundit does talks, advises companies that kind of stuff.
The daily hiking chats seem to be there as a 'free sampler'
Just a quick update on Ukraine becoming an EU member state, published yesterday (13th). Ukraine meets the Copenhagen Criteria, but the hard miles of getting past objections from Hungary (and possibly Slovakia?) and then negotiations have yet to begin
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/11/13/7173415/
The withdrawn Russian press release “We’re withdrawing from the Dnipro region” ^^ is still causing as much confusion 24 hours on as it did yesterday
Either Russia is preparing an announcement and posted it accidentally, or it's a feint (unlikely that Ukraine would swallow that one with "western" intel available), or it's a hacker (also unlikely). The final possibility is the release of a 2022 draft
The Dnipro river is their best defensive line, so why withdraw? Interesting...
And it's been breached in 3 or 4 places in the East. Where it's still pretty wide and bridgeheads are in place , although not deep enough to cover from artillery. They have also got as far as a main supply route East to West by a village called kranky.
As far as I can tell the ukr army is working up and down this highway to clear the houses of embedded Russian conscripts.
If there are tens of thousands of hapless conscripts who're surrendering, as we would like to believe, that in itself has to provide a logistical headache to an army who's prepared to capture and take them somewhere rather than shell them.
tens of thousands of hapless conscripts who’re surrendering
The Romans would have executed a random 10% (the literal meaning of decimate) and offered the rest the chance to change sides.
Whilst obviously a far from Neutral source, Joe MacDonald, a UK volunteer serving in the Kherson area reckons the Russians opposite his unit have recently been reinforced and re-armed and he's expecting a tough few weeks in that area..
Have you guys done this yet?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/
Washington Post (WP) is paywalled for me. What has the WP added to the earlier German investigations?
An investigation from March carried out by the German ARD and Die Zeit media companies made allegations that the yacht, Andromeda, was hired in Germany by an unidentified crew using fake passports. The crew could have been from anywhere in the world
There is a variety of circumstantial evidence linking the yacht crew to Ukraine and to explosive residue similar to that on the pipeline, however that could just as easily be a false-flag; the public domain simply doesn't know the origins of the crew. A later Spiegel and ZDF investigation found similar circumstantial evidence, but all agreed that the US wasn't involved.
Russia has a motive for destroying the pipelines, it avoids their commercial obligations and penalties for cutting the supply to Europe from NS1.
Ukraine has a motive too, in the absence of NS Russia must continue to pay them for overland pipeline routes
The interesting point for me is why Ukraine left one pipeline undamaged (there are four NS pipelines) if they were responsible. Only Russia benefits from that
Colonel Chervinsky denies the charges that he faces in Ukraine and which aren't connected to Nordstream
A couple of NS-related links that provide more info...
https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-german-authorities-searched-ship-for-explosives/a-64915970
https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-pipelines-blasts-a-maze-of-speculation/a-66913853
I thought that DW had conducted a practical reconstruction of the yacht theory and failed to find the pipeline, never mind dive on it, but I can't find that report
If it's paywalled then a 12ft ladder may help you see it.
Pretty damning if true, Ukr military doing their own thing and accusing Zelensky of having moles in his administration.
But not, ultimately, surprising.
I feel all these thrusts are to move Russians around, and draw reserves into range of artillery/HIMARS.
If an actual breakthrough happened, they would follow it through, but it’s not always the main objective.