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the Russian elections are happening soon. even though we know who will win I reckon they are looking for a victory of some description for the propaganda
I came to post about Avdiivka - horrid loss of life from a Russian side now moving into the desperate perhaps?
Also came to say that there's the first reports of rain and frosts - I assume this is the start of mud and then winter.
A couple of days ago Russia launched a successful attack southwest of Avdiivka, their problems seem to be more to the north
Avdiivka is well-defended and has been on Russia's to-do list for 9 years, that's a long time to build Ukrainian defences
The first snow has been seen in the mountains, but don't forget that the front is 500 miles which is a lot of climatic variation
That link is interesting, had a bit of a look - looks like ukr lost a jet to a uav strike a couple of days ago,
[deleted]
looks like ukr lost a jet to a uav strike a couple of days ago,
Considering the situation and predictions when all this started I'm still slightly in awe that Ukraine still has any military jets to lose.
Book after book is going to be written telling the story of the Ukr airforce over the last 18 months. Now the F16's are in the pipeline the worst is hopefully over but their mere survival in 2022 was incredible.
Tha map link from the X-crete above is interesting if not just to show where places mentioned in reports are in relation to whats happening.
https://geoconfirmed.org/ukraine
Takes a moment to load.
hatter
Full MemberConsidering the situation and predictions when all this started I’m still slightly in awe that Ukraine still has any military jets to lose.
They lost 5 of those in a week last year and a bunch more in the weeks following so they had to get really smart about using them, really fast. Which mostly just meant "use them in standoff and carefully" I think. Kind of the perfect counterpoint to all the neckbeard A10 fanboys
But they also had a load of them inoperable before the war- according to some estimates, they had 70 in total of which 15 were operable and 55 stored or derelict, they've lost 10, and 15 minus 10 turns out to be about 30, because they got some more from Bulgaria and refurbished others. So having loads of ex-soviet planes sat around has probably turned out to be a massive advantage and maybe if they'd had less parked and more flying they'd have ended up just losing more of them in those bad weeks and would have less now.d
Ah, ‘Downfall’, the gift that keeps on giving! 🤣
This is well worth a read through, an interesting article about new offensive drones that Ukraine has been developing, called Wild Hornet.
They’re a small machine, FPV, no GPS, with significant range, are cheap and can carry a 2kg explosive device, they can be used for surveillance, repeated bombing attacks or kamikaze strikes if needed.
Wild Hornets: Ukraine’s Tiny Armor-Busting, Trench-Clearing Secret Weapon
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19227
Russia's Pavel Derzhavin vessel was struck in the Black Sea near the port of Sevastopol in Crimea, Pletenchuk (Ukrainian Navy spokesperson) told Radio Svoboda, the Russian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Allegedly a sea-mine was responsible, probably made in...
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-black-sea-fleet-ship-damaged-pavel-derzhavin-1834163
Ukraine’s Tiny Armor-Busting, Trench-Clearing Secret Weapon
Not so secret now.
I presume this is the same one that timba linked to
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1712747812121612544
how many ships are left at sevastopol now?
how many ships are left at sevastopol now?
I was wondering that myself. I assumed that Russia had given up on the place and moved them all out. Glad to see I'm wrong.
I presume this is the same one that timba linked to
It may be the same one. If it is a Buyan-class corvette then it's a different ship altogether. Buyan is a design name
If it's Bykov-class then it's likely to be the same; that name comes from the first one that was launched, Vasily Bykov
The problem is that identification isn't clear and both "Buyan" and "Bykov" are used in the thread
seems to be far fewer reports of ru using missles, so either pushing the fleet back has slowed them down, or more ominously they are stockpiling them like they did last winter and will look to take out the grid.
Its the subs they need to catch in port. The surface ships are much more vunerable to counter measures
they are stockpiling them like they did last winter and will look to take out the grid.
Sadly, I think that's probably true
Seems Ukraine, a nation without a navy, has once again struck the Russian Black Sea fleet..
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712763116868481073
seems like Russian advance on Avvdiivka is grinding to a halt with huge losses
meanwhile Ukraine struck a Russian airfield last night
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714178261364969556?t=k7bCsnL9oF7yKcHeb7eknw&s=19
Crimean airbases suddenly looking very vulnerable.
Whilst the world's attention has (understandably) been drawn to Gaza Ukraine continues to make slow but dogged progress.
Apparently last month they overtook Russia in terms of volume of artillery fire for the first time since the conflict began, as argued above Russia could be building up reserves ready for a big effort but considering the stockpiles they started the war with even having to temporarily reduce use is a big downgrade to what we're used to.
Over a year of very effective counter battery fire, targeting of ammo dumps etc may mean that the artillery tide is slowly, starting to turn.
As for the ammo that's arrived from North Korea, anyone else seen the video of Russians having to rig up a crude battering ram in order to force clearly not to spec rockets into the back of a grad launcher? I suspect soon this ammo will be taking out almost as many Russian artillery crews as the Ukrainians.
Looks like alot of helicopters in that image. Actually spaced out though, so not all parked next to each other like earlier in the war. Thats going to really blunt the russian offensive, several mentions of rotary wing support on the ISW reports.
Additional: Just seen the news about Berdyansk air base.
This is big for 2 reasons.
A: if it really was ATACMS then they've been deployed incredibly quickly, the US only agreed to send them on Sept 24th. I guess they're pretty 'plug and play' with the HIMARS / M270 platforms which helps.
B: Russia's fleet of KA-52 attack choppers has been a major factor in slowing Ukraine's advance, especially by attacking armored columns, something they excel at. Russia started the war with 133 of them and at least 43 of them have already lost in action.
If Ukraine just took out another 5-10 with that strike that's still a massive chunk of Russia's entire remaining fleet. Berdyansk would also have been the main base where they'd be supporting the Zaporizhia/Tokmak front from.
Russian telegram channels are reporting that this is the most serious single loss of Russian aviation so far in the war, obviously we don't have the details yet but this could turn out to be a huge deal.
anyone else seen the video of Russians having to rig up a crude battering ram in order to force clearly not to spec rockets into the back of a grad launcher?
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1712033482350719051
Could just as easily be battle damage/wear & tear on the launcher…
I feel Darwin awards will have a lot of Russian soldier’s entering this year!
I feel Darwin awards will have a lot of Russian soldier’s entering this year!
They probably aren't doing this stuff voluntarily though.
9 heli's claimed to be destroyed reported on the beeb. So a tenth of the remainder gone in a single day. Plus any personnel / ammo
seems like it was ACTAMS
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714285259725128149
more footage
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1714270127032799400
sunny day in berdyansk, expect sattelite confirmation tomorrow
Initial reports are 9 Heli's completely destroyed and at least another 5 damaged, considering that in Russian reports 'damaged' can mean anything from 'paint scratches' to 'still actually on fire'. it's fair to say that the ATACMS have made one hell of a debut.
Another straw on the Russian camel's back.
Think I asked previously but how long does it take Google Earth to update and show these events? I know it took a fair while to show the extensions and digging around the Mariupol cemetery for instance.
if it really was ATACMS then they’ve been deployed incredibly quickly, the US only agreed to send them on Sept 24th. I guess they’re pretty ‘plug and play’ with the HIMARS / M270 platforms which helps.
I think that "the plan" was to send them quietly and for the US to only announce the delivery when Ukraine lit the blue touchpaper. This would have reduced time for Russia to shift materiel further back, but US officials spoke to NBC in September. "Biden told Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a private meeting that a small number of the weapons would be transferred, NBC reported, citing US officials." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/23/us-agrees-to-send-long-range-missiles-atacms-to-ukraine-in-military-boost-for-kyiv
I've been trying to avoid the news, just too depressing.
I'm lost for words really.
20,000 children stolen during the invasion. Deliberate ethnic cleansing and nastiness.
And now they will 'be nice' and return them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67121574 nice
Truely horrific. 4?... of 20,000?!? Knowing how organised Russia is there's not a chance that such an influx of children in this manner has resulting in abuse of any kind. I can only imagine the psychological damage this has had on those children, let alone those left to experience the war.
Reading the report, what do you understand of the BBC's line "However the number of those deported is thought to be much higher". Do they mean to move Ukranians from the occupied land? Where to; unoccupied parts of Ukraine or to Russia - as if it's the later surely that too is abduction.
Where to; unoccupied parts of Ukraine or to Russia
The under-populated Russian Far East apparently as far away from Ukraine as they can get them.
So utterly grim, an echo of the worst excesses of Stalin. Those arguing against further aid to Ukraine seem to completely ignore the sheer horror that a Russian victory brings in its wake.
Not that the Ukrainians are not all perfect angels but what they're facing is genuine evil.
I think it's more to do with the fact that posters on this thread can (mostly) avoid abusing each other and slinging personal insults, thus negating the need for the mods to step in.
It hasn't always been like that, if you look at the first few pages.
I feel Darwin awards will have a lot of Russian soldier’s entering this year!
I would be definitely volunteering to take the video "so others can see how its done" and "let me just take a few steps back to make sure I capture all of you working as a team".
Good to see this thread progressing nicely. Not much censorship here then?
Ermm yeah. This thread is pretty uncontroversial as there isnt there isnt really that much complexity in terms of how to view it unless you are really on Putins side and there doesnt seem many of them here.
If Ukraine changed tactics dramatically I suspect it would get more argumentative and risk being shut down.
Don’t feed the troll