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and at what cost.
In dollars naturally, and "as much as you've got" presumably
They’re doing the job
You can't see what the damage is and Ukraine will be looking to recover it and return it to the frontline if at all possible. I think that Ukraine got a bunch of older C2s rather than the improved 2016> Theatre Entry Standard (TES), but those would struggle against an artillery barrage too
Hopefully the crew is safe at which point the tank did its job. If it lives to fight another day then that'll be a bonus
The potantial NK arms deal is interesting… NK don’t have many allies so it will be interesting to see what they are prepared to supply to Russia and at what cost.
Seems a little desperate IMO.
Having to crawl to Pyongyang must be making Poots feel very small and uncomfortable. Excellent.
I see they are about to try to mobilise another 200K conscripts, which should hopefully cause him some domestic political issues.
A deal with North Korea is potentially a concern for us all https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-two-good-reasons-the-world-should-worry-about-russias-arms-purchases-from-north-korea-212714
You can’t see what the damage is and Ukraine will be looking to recover it and return it to the frontline if at all possible.
It looks like it's toast sadly, artillery will do that, great to hear that the crew survived though.
Great to hear the crew got out safe. fingers crossed the counter batteries did their thing and totalled the Russian artillery that targeted the tank. means it didn't die in vain.
so thru have 19 left then, not many when you look at the scale of the war 🙁
just looked up british army has 227 tanks. the US has 5500. mind boggling number. and they won't be crap ones from the 1960s
so thru have 19 left then, not many when you look at the scale of the war
I think we only sent 14?
Is it me, or is it X/twitter - has the Russian misinformation and troll factory stepped up the last couple of days?
It's far from just you, which is why people & advertisers are leaving it hand over fist.
Yup, the Elongated Muskrat has been letting the trolls run wild, twitter really feels like its in a death spiral but I have no clue where that ends.
Anyway.... tanks
Now hearing reports from Ukrianian sources stating that the unfortunate Chally we've been talking about was abandoned by its crew due to a breakdown and with no imminent chance of recovery they set fire to it to avoid it being captured intact.
This could be fog of war of course but it figures with reports of the crew having all survived and the pictures of a totally burnt out but generally intact tank.
Whilst it's a shame that the tank was lost, if this turns out to be true then the Chally 2's 'never knocked out by hostile action' record still stands!
Also, the crew did the right thing, can you imagine the gloating on Z channels if they'd captured it intact?
Oh, that's a pity, it was such a nice military headquarters they had there.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1699608451528237373
Oh, that’s a pity, it was such a nice military headquarters they had there.
it’s not a pity but in the scheme of things it’s a pinprick. Russia is a vast country with huge resources and whether we like it or not they aren’t being wrestled out of Ukraine. Their default strategy of Grozhnification / Aleppification of the country is ongoing.
The US has discovered more ATACMS missiles on the back of the top shelf than it thought it had and will probably be sending them to Ukraine
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722
Ukraine has recaptured two oil rigs in a strategic position near Crimea that the Russians have controlled since soon after their annexation of Crimea in 2014
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1701336774423843160?s=20
Every day they're ratcheting up the pressure, I still hope we may see something crack on the Russian side before the mud returns.
Despite Elon's best efforts, Crimea seems to remains very much on the menu.
Does feel like they are running out of time though, and they can't let the russians dig in even more or it will be impossible to break through
I would be delighted to be proved wrong, but it feels to me like there will be no huge progress this year. Ukraine have advanced, but surely Russia will have had time to re-fortify the second and third lines in the areas of that progress and so there are still huge defences to break through.
Hopefully Ukraine, with western support, are better able to survive a war of attrition through the winter and will be able to have another crack next year with new approaches including F16s supporting.
I can imagine this war becoming all about drones before too long though.
very day they’re ratcheting up the pressure, I still hope we may see something crack on the Russian side before the mud returns.
I read something on X-twitter-Musk-Dom last night that was suggesting the mud / damp / cold is just what could be the final straw. The Russians are struggling to do logistics already, struggling with troop movements - and bad / worse weather makes that all so much harder for them. The Russians have long supply lines and are slowly coming under range for all sorts of weapons.
Add in the fact that Ukraine is still (mainly) rotating forces for a rest, kitted well, have warmer vehicles, shorter supply chains, bases for resting nearby etc and the weather plays into their hands more than the Russians.
Ukraine also appear to have roughly 12 brigades of their most heavily armed, mobile and NATO equipped troops that have not been committed yet.
They're clearly waiting to see any chance of a break through so they can storm this lot through, even a very small breach in the lines could have a huge cascade affect if Ukraine exploit it as they are clearly preparing to do.
The first of the 3 Russian lines was supposed to be by far the most heavily fortified, the Ukrainians are now through this in several places. They are also tantalizingly close to getting within 155mm artillery range of the all important rail logistics hub at Tokmak.
Has Russia held the line so far? Arguably yes.
But they are entirely on the back foot and clearly under huge strain, with struggling logistics and demoralized troops, deploying Elite offensive units (such as the 76th airbourne) as basic trench-fodder to hold the line. Ukraine is making all the moves and whilst they are going slow and steady to try and minimize casualties (learning from some overly bold assaults early on that ended badly) the front is only moving in one direction.
A spectacular Ukrainian breakthrough and rapid advance like we saw this time last year would be a huge morale boost and very helpful for shoring up Western support ahead of the 2024 US election season but even at the current rate, things are going, slowly, painfully in the right direction, and next year they'll have Abrams, ATACMS and F16's.
Anything to make of the G20 wording a day or two back?
They’re clearly waiting to see any chance of a break through so they can storm this lot through, even a very small breach in the lines could have a huge cascade affect if Ukraine exploit it as they are clearly preparing to do.
I think we all hope for this but recognise it is unlikely.
I think I would also say that the Russians overall are more battle-hardened and wiser, so less likely to collapse / run away than perhaps they would have 18 months ago...
I thought it might turn out a bit like the Battle of Normandy, weeks of hard slog and then a sudden collapse, like the Falaise Pocket and then the Ukrainians roll them up.
Unfortunately I now think they have ran out of time and the mud will prevent a Russian collapse this year.
Unfortunately I now think they have ran out of time and the mud will prevent a Russian collapse this year.
Ukr saying that because they arent relying on tanks etc that they can continue through the winter (tho its in their interests to make sure the west keeps faith & supports them)
IIRC the Kherson offensive last year took place mostly in the Autumn, with Ukraine retaking the city in December (I think). So the mud isn't necessarily going to stop them. (though it could slow them down a lot.)
I'm also not sure that I agree the the Russians they are now facing are
more battle-hardened and wiser,
Most of the troops Ukraine faced in 2022 were professional standing Russian forces. Now a big chunk of the current units in Ukraine are recent conscripts from Russia Autumn 2022 draft, some of which have already needed 'blocking units' behind them to keep them in place.
Of course it doesn't take that much training to stand in a trench and get shelled but this is why I still think any breakthrough could quickly generate a cascade effect as demoralised and mistreated conscripts are far more likely to run for it if they hear that the enemy has broken through nearby and that they're about to get surrounded.
Whether or not that breakthrough happens of course is of course the big question and I haven't pretended that I know the answer to that matter. My point was more that the lack of a Kharkiv-style spectacular advance does not signify that the offensive has failed or that Ukraine is losing, whilst we'd all love things to be moving faster, things are moving.
Off topic but closely related..
I see 'rocket man' is in Russia now.
Who knows what kind of deal they may or may not agree to.
I wonder what the 'trump faction' of the USA republicans make of this.
A republican win in the next USA election would surely be a major blow to Ukraine?
I see ‘rocket man’ is in Russia now
Target rich environment available?
I wonder what the ‘trump faction’ of the USA republicans make of this.
Don't they all have a semi for 'strongman' authoritarian or dictator types? Rocket man and Putler in the same room, they'll be in a frothing orgasmic frenzy. Probably dreaming of the day the Orange gibbon gets to join them for a three way photo call on his (god help us) re-election.
Ukraine is stuffed if he gets back into the Whitehouse and Europe too when it gives Russia the green light to expand their territorial ambitions.
Considering that in 2020 Trump was enthusiastically telling his team how he was going to pull the USA out of NATO in his 2nd term, he's either a Russian/Chinese asset or the most useful idiot of all time.
So the mud isn’t necessarily going to stop them. (though it could slow them down a lot.)
The south is likely to be easier going and a dam used to irrigate farmland has been destroyed as well
Ukr saying that because they arent relying on tanks etc that they can continue through the winteR
seems like only yesterday that they were saying they needed tanks to kick the Russians out.
They will still need them to exploit any breakthrough so the point still stands.
seems like only yesterday that they were saying they needed tanks to kick the Russians out.
They still do, but like everything tanks have a time and a place
looks like Kim will be giving his old stockpile of ammunition to Russia. I imagine their is going to be quite the failure rate on some of the old kit they drag out. Still, worrying times for ukraine as it may allow russia to go back to the tactic of flattening everything with artillery
If the talk of NK/Iran arming Russia happens I imagine that may well spur on ATACMS/Taurus delivery and I know what I’d rather have.
Even if Russia gets ammo, it still has to move it and fire it. Artillery is getting hammered as is all their logistics lines.
Artillery is getting hammered as is all their logistics lines.
And yet - they’re still there.
I’d like to see them getting their arses kicked as much as anyone, but it just doesn’t look like it’s happening. And day by day Ukrainian facilities - military and civilian - are getting destroyed.
Russia's ability to fight is steadily being degraded. Having to beg North Korea for ammo is a sign of utter desperation. Sevastopol is worse than useless to Russia now - it's impossible to defend and just draining resources that Russia can't replace.
https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1701817370749415495
Russia’s ability to fight is steadily being degraded.
👆
As Ben Wallace said a few days ago, this is how it ends - Russia begging for 1960's and 1970's ammo from North Korea....
And yet – they’re still there.
Were you expecting ALL their artillery to have been destroyed by now? Russia has massive ex soviet stocks of artillery, there was always going to be an element of attrition to this. Ukraine has destroyed (they claim) 5900 to date. Whilst Russia has lots more, they are not necessarily in the best condition or located where they need to be. Every time one is destroyed by Ukraine, the Russians have a massive logistical effort to replace it (and in many cases the crewmen to operate it). Russia is no longer able to use artillery as effectively as it once could in any case, due to UAVs, HIMARS etc. All of this is slowly, inexorably degrading Russian morale and combat effectiveness. Every day Ukraine is creeping closer towards being in position to interdict the major supply route through Tomak. When they do, replacing those artillery pieces and other kit is going to get even harder.
Yes Ukraine are taking losses too, but with almost unanimous international support, shorter supply lines, more effective fire control and crucially far better morale and motivation to fight I still think they will win. It won't be quick though. Probably their counteroffensive will stall as winter approaches and it will be next year before more significant gains are made, but the momentum is with Ukraine IMO.
The Sevastopol strike seems to have got a landing ship, a sub and (more importantly maybe) the dry dock for repairing Russian boats.
On top of loosing the oil platforms, is this Russia starting to really lose ability to launch missiles from the sea?
I'm a little confused at how the Ukrainians can operate in the Black Sea?
I thought that they had no ports?
I’m a little confused at how the Ukrainians can operate in the Black Sea?
I thought that they had no ports?
They still have Odessa and they're mainly using small vessels and waterbourne USV's to carry out attacks that don't require proper ports to operate out of.
In theory they should have been driven out of the naval theatre by now but lateral thinking, innovation and sheer brass balls have kept them in the game.