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Would f16s mean that Ukraine could keep the pressure on over winter rather than letting the Russians dig in even more?
They probably won’t be in service until summer next year 🤷♂️
Now thay the investigation has found Prighozin was on the plane and killed, presumably the chance of him being alive have gained a few % points
There's a few reports, from more reliable places such as ISW, about Ukraine making some real headway though the fixed defences in a couple of places. Suggestions they are behind some now and finding only logistics and a few individual soldiers, not heavy armed or groups of soldiers.
Fingers crossed this is the case.
Call me a sceptic, but if Putin did have him assasinated, he waited a long time to do it, given that the attempted coup was quite a severe humilliation.
We only have the word of the Russians that he's dead, really, so i'm not sure that's either here nor there in terms of strategy for those that oppose the putin establishment.
he waited a long time to do it, given that the attempted coup was quite a severe humilliation.
If you're going to asssasinate someone, it's generally a good idea to disperse the heavily armed, fully mobilized men who follow them first so that his 2nd in command doesn't immediately take over and head straight to Moscow.
Putin very wisely made sure Wagner was stripped of their tanks, artillery, air defence systems etc and made sure that as much of Wagners' upper command were taken out simultaneously to ensure an obvious no obvious successor.
Call me a sceptic, but if Putin did have him assasinated, he waited a long time to do it, given that the attempted coup was quite a severe humilliation.
Well, theres the revenge is best served cold idea, but possibly Prighozin was being ultra careful for the first few weeks and then maybe thought he'd got away with it and got a bit sloppy with his security.
Though I suspect its more likely that Putin held a very very thorough FSB investigation into anybody else who might possibly be involved and has just started ticking off the names on the list, Prighozin being first and some generals/unheard of people start falling out of 10 story hospitals and then stab themselves 15 times on landing.
@breatheeasy I wonder what the Ukrainian for ‘YGBSM’ is.
Ha, yeah, those wild weasels sound like a fun (and possibly short live) occupation.
A very good point, but the Russian land grab in Ukraine, post crimea land grab is anything but wise, given the global reaction so far.
I'm just saying we shouldn't be so quick to accept 'good news' when the source of said 'good news' is Putin.
Putins also been busy making sure that Wagner's operations in Africa are now Russia's
Meantime, having taken Robotyne, there’s a lot of chatter that the UA is in Novoprokopivka and Verbove. If this is true it means they have got into (and through in places) the first part of the Surovikin line. By all accounts the minefields that we’re causing a lot of the problems are nowhere near as prevalent further South and the Russians are having problems plugging gaps as they don’t have enough reserves, their artillery is getting battered by counter-battery fire and their logistics have and are being HIMARSed.
Fingers crossed this is the beginning of the breakthrough. If the UA can get in behind the Russian defences in meaningful fashion, I can see big changes on the map happening very quickly 🤞
that isw map still looks like there are lots and lots of pointy red triangles to get through....
That's a long way from Ukraine.
^^ claims that four IL-76 aircraft damaged in that attack
Not just Pskov, hearing reports from all over Western Russia now, seems like a concerted wave of UAV attacks they've hit a GRU special forces base and Silicon EL, (Russia's largest microchip factory) as well as several other targets.
Peskov is also the home the 76th Guards VDV, reckoned to be Russia's best unit still in the fight who have just been rushed South to reinforce the area near Tokmak, huge secondary explosions have reported from that attack which suggests they hit something important.
The Ukrainians seemn to have found a new way to make Russia sweat by using UAV's en masse, good on 'em.
Looks like the walls are closing in on ol' vlad.
Do his nukes still work?
not something I hope we find out. not something to joke about really 🙁
does indeed seem to have been a busy night.
His nukes may work but so do ours and we've made it pretty clear that even the use of a smaller battlefield nuke would prompt direct NATO involvement.
If he uses a big one then he perisnally will be the target of any initial response and NATO know exactly where he is at all times.
There will still be a lot of sabre rattling but unless the Ukrainians actually invade Russia proper and close on Moscow, that's all it is.
Russia seems to be giving up any pretence that it's not a totalitarian dictatorship.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1515901373837107204?t=wrqxSlJK3A32T1v7kx3w6A&s=19
The Ukrainians seemn to have found a new way to make Russia sweat by using UAV’s en masse, good on ’em.
😃
Great thread on the use of UAVs in Ukraine/Russia, including Aussie cardboard and rubber band versions which may have been used in the attack on Pskov airfield.
This cheap technology is developing so rapidly and being used so innovatively it's turning a lot of established military doctrine on its head. Combined with AI that is only going to accelerate.
A lot of smaller nations are now going to be punching well above their weight militarily and posing threats to western militaries which didn't exist even a short time ago.
Interesting times.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1697303671795540226?t=frvIC_EmdPzgnfiO72cqxQ&s=19
That reminds me of the balsa and doped crepe paper planes I used to make with my grandad.
Further development from the ice & wood pulp carrier in WW2
Sounds like there might be a second Ukrainian strike on Pskov airfield. Hopefully whacking a few more airlifters.
any links?
thing is, there is nothing stopping russia making cheap cardboard drones either and doing the same to ukr.
from this
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1697357310920638795?t=7chl-0MEWyPoc_rIHVWmiw&s=19
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1697357069492404436?t=6ABSCi1TYxhp7xfl_WifuQ&s=19
but that may have just been nervous overreaction
meanwhile
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1697490222626328586?t=0VHAgP879Y1dkgN3LnigDA&s=19
any links?
There were lots of reports of this last night. It seems it may be a case of jittery air defence units around the airfield.
thing is, there is nothing stopping russia making cheap cardboard drones either and doing the same to ukr.
No, there isn't and Russia have made great use of drones already. But then they already had the ability to strike deep into Ukraine with more expensive weapons, with (or so they thought) impunity. UAVs level up the playing field. They give Ukraine a capability Russia hadn't bargained for - the ability to strike deep into their territory. See also their home grown maritime drones sinking warships when they don't have a navy.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1697359630291157140?t=jAyf-HqOVydu6uXyrd2rVw&s=19
They give Ukraine a capability Russia hadn’t bargained for – the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
And I note Ukraine are using them very wisely - taking out the transport and logistics or long range bomber aircraft. etc.
I await more clever strikes on key units or equipment.
The West is going to have to up its electronic warfare game to counter this new drone threat.
I bet these guys could help with cheap drone designs. They make some amazing kit
https://youtube.com/@FliteTest?si=ys9RpP-W6Z03XIkg
Ringing endorsement of Challenger 2 by a Ukrainian tanker.
Long range targeting ability, internal ergonomics, and crew survivability all singled out by a tanker with previous experience on T72, T80 etc.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1698286463467540686?t=hEJmK4oJkPRo697ZTdWZzA&s=19
Also an insight as to how Soviet/NATO employ tanks differently. The Ch2 is an anti tank/vehicle sniper whereas the T72 is basically for infantry support.
and first chally down: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1698955326496592140
guess they are all in on that part of the front
It as always going to happen, especially considering what Ukraine are trying to do right now.
Ignore the Z-trolls who will no doubt be crowing about this, keep calm and carry on.
well lets hope the crew got out safely as per its design
Initial reports suggest it hit an AT mine which caused it to throw a track and then the Russians pounded it with artillery whilst it was immobile, that'd be enough to kill any tank.
The turret position suggests the crew bailed out, which would be great news.
The Challys have been the tip of the spear in the hottest part of the front against the most heavily fortified positions in the whole theater for at least 2 weeks now and Russia have finally managed to knock out 1 of them.
They're doing the job.
I went to "Panzertag" at our local museum in Switzerland. Open day, tank driving etc etc and there were old Russian tanks rumbling around the outdoor track. Very odd to see the T72 from a museum knowing it was deployed in Ukraine.
It was a very noisy, smelly raucus thing compared to the Centurion that was running at the same time.
https://www.festungsmuseum.ch/panzerweekend/
Be weird if Ukraine wasn't suffering tank losses at this point. It's good that the crews have the additional protection of modern western tanks rather than being sat in T-whatevers waiting for the turret to get launched.