Forum menu
I'd really like to be able to independently verify that Prigozhin is indeed dead before I speculate further. That said, for Prigozhin to die in a friendly fire incident in must surely have been something that "Putin's Chef" would've envisaged.
What happens with Wagner now?
Where are the suggestions of friendly fire?
Well they used to be friends, so I suppose it's more appropriate to call it ex-friendly fire.
A bomb in a wine crate?
How sad.
I have also read suggestions a bomb was on board, from the PPRUNE forum
Sure there is a reasonable explanation for this
I think what's being discussed is by far the most reasonable explanation.
Pretty sure there is a vid doing the rounds that looks very much like a SAM hitting a plane that drops out of the sky.
I think what’s being discussed is by far the most reasonable explanation
Don't be silly.
Much more reasonable to think that a very rich Russian oligarch - who led a short lived and broadly unsupported coup attempt against Putin and the Russian establishment and then proceeded to get away with seemingly a slap on the wrists & an exile that seemed to be little more than a curfew - simply forgot to put enough fuel in his aeroplane almost exactly two months after said failed coup.
Planes inexplicably fall from the sky all the time.
Especially with the entire command of a military outfit onboard.
Oh dear. It's almost like Crimea isn't really safe for Russians anymore.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1694633057951662522
That Crimea amphibious attack must open a big hole in air defences for something coming from the west/northwest.
A bomb in a wine crate?
🤣 NIce historical reference there. It would be very amusing if it was that.
It looks like the Sean Penn documentary will be good
German paper (Süddeutsche) reporting that now the Norwegians are also going to donate their F16 fighters as well Iris-T missiles.
Norway also donating €130m towards Ukraine's energy supply.
Whilst it will inevitably be frustrating how long it will take to get all these planes crewed, supplied and ready to be used in theatre, the numbers being pledged are nudging towards reaching 'game changer' levels in 2024, esp if the West can keep up with the various armaments and spares for them.
Whilst the chances of a definative ground breakthrough this summer sadly seem to be fading, the trends continue... Ukraine slowly gets stronger and more capable, whilst Russia weakens.
I really hoped this war would be decided this year, that's unlikely to happen but the building blocks for Ukrianian victory in 2024 do seem to be coming together.
...unless the Ukrainians have another big suprise in store, I'd deeply love to see them pull off another absolute blinder before mud season kicks in.
crazy russians on the attack :/
If these jets really are a 'game changer', will the Ukraine stop at the Crimera and will this exceed Putin's 'redlines' for a nuclear response?
Yes, Ukraine will stop at Crimea (Ukraine 2014 borders) or they will find the jets (and lots of other stuff) stop working.
Hard to say where the (any?) real redlines are and Pootin, Mad Med and others will snarl and threaten nukes about giving up Crimea but they won't use them.
F16s although a fantastic multi role fighter are still not going to change the battlefield that much .. Russian air defense would need to be sorted first off.
The most likey outcome from all this will he some sort peace brokered after Crimea has seen heavy fighting.
That’s exactly what the F16s are for. Ukraine has had significant difficulty getting AGM 88 HARM missiles to work with the M29. They’re designed to work with the F16s. A 4 flight sortie of F16s in two pairs, one at high level to trigger the SAM and then jam the radar and evade, the second flight at lower level with the HARMs to kill it whilst it engages the first pair and tries to overcome the jamming.
The fact that Ukraine's airforce still even exists suggests that Russian Air defence isn't all that. With the numbers they started out with they should have been blown out the sky within a week.
Which suggests that Ukraine, given enough planes will be able to do some real damage with them, which is why the West has decided to supply them.
Add in US-supplied HARM missiles and how many functional S300's and S400 systems will Russia have left by the time the F16's are deployed? Especially considering how Russia is struggling to replace them.
Edit: Wot Daffy said re: HARM missiles, the F16 will be as much of a danger to Russian air defence as vice versa, especially if Ukriane get enough to deploy them en masse.
does anyone remember the female i think Ukrainian commentator on twitter whi was certain the Wagner coup was just theatre, be interested to see what her take is
Reports from the Zaporizhzhia front suggest a major Ukranian night time assault is underway and that UA troops have entered Novoprokopivka.
All unconfirmed of course but on tbe face of it it looks like Ukranian command have not given up on Tokmak
Also reports of multiple Chally 2's being involved, first time they've been seen at the sharp end as far as I'm aware
Putin not quite confirming Priggo is dead. Was it him on the plane? It was noted up-thread that putting all your top brass on one plane is not good practice for any organisation - perhaps they didn't.
Apparently there was 2 Wagner planes in the air at the same time, If I thought I had a price on my head I’d be in the second plane where my name wasn’t on the manifest
who knows ?
Sad that the downing of that plane and the killing of the Wagner co-founders was enough to make Putin's aim of de-Nazifying Ukraine a true statement.
Maybe not the original intention, but maybe that will give him a way out, a "Mission Accomplished" moment.
Wagner, who's Wagner?
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1695046867300626734
It really is going full Stalin...
While it's all about revenge and erasing the traitors, it's also salting the wound of a large, well trained, armed, angry and probably slightly deranged group...
^^ can't see that going to plan.
Telegram was full of Wagner fighters calling for a second march in Moscow.
The HARM missles have three modes. the UKRs have managed to hack one mode to work with the missiles hanging off their MIGs. F16s will open it up to having all their functionality back so they can go hunting radar sites with free will.
^^ can’t see that going to plan.
Indeed, and see my comment about full (Death of) Stalin mode...
I suspect many Wagner's will also seek to serve retribution coolly, calmly and violently.
Who is providing wages to all the Wagner fighters now? Won't they just disappear into other warlords armies now, with whatever weapons they still have? Difficult to see the getting organised to try anything big in Russia now.
Who is providing wages to all the Wagner fighters now?
Exactly. They're mercenaries, they follow whoever has money.
Whereas the regular Russian forces follow whoever has booze. After watching this, I think I'd just follow whoever gave me a decent pair of boots.
[Mod- image removed]
Who is providing wages to all the Wagner fighters now? Won’t they just disappear into other warlords armies now, with whatever weapons they still have? Difficult to see the getting organised to try anything big in Russia now.
I apologise for the ridiculous triple use of the word 'now' in an extremely short post.
Now, now, now, nobody noticed.
Who is providing wages to all the Wagner fighters now?
Outside of Ukraine they're up to their eyeballs in everything from diamond mining to oil production, throughout Africa especially. Wagner isn't going to struggle for money. It's not like he was paying them from his current account a few days ago.
Without pirgozhin keeping that money flowing back to the kremlin is likely to be harder.
Some interesting commentary suggesting that Ukraine now need 'only' to advance a handful of miles to bring the Russian East to West supply lines into artillery range, which would be make it next to impossible to keep supplying Crimea by that route.
Makes a change from folk online saying that the counteroffensive has failed.
https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/
Ukraine should have been given long range strike capability right from the beginning of the invasion
Won’t they just disappear into other warlords armies now,
Think it was on The Newsagents podcast where they were discussion other PMC groups within Russia that'll likely take over from Wagner.
Poor Wagner, imagine suddenly having your whole identity erased as if you never existed.
US to train pilots on F16s.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-friday-august-25/live-66626421?mobileApp=true