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attrition low gains stuff, ie what Russia was doing at Bakhmut, then that’s a sign that they can’t find the breakouts they’re looking for and are running out of options. It might be that the explotable weak spots just don’t really exist this year though.
Maybe, but that's not the way I understand attrition, at least in terms of war, it's more about holding ground, not tiring out your guys or logistics, or otherwise over exherting yourself whilst keeping the other guys on constant alert and small scale action, thereby taxing thier back end supply chain logistics until they have to fall back due to lack of food, water, medical aid, bullets, boots, helmets etc. etc.
snip...thereby taxing thier back end supply chain logistics...
Specifically-targetted logistics and their destruction is becoming a huge problem for Russia
Encouraging daily report for Ukraine here... https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/15/frontline-report-ukraine-captures-tactical-heights-near-bakhmut-chechen-reinforcements-flee/
Yeah, I’m hearing a few grumbles in the vein of “Ukraine have all this NATO kit, why haven’t they just smashed through Russian lines already?”
What these tend to ignore is the air factor, the lack of air dominance means that Ukraine are really having to do this the hard way. It’s a much tougher task than any recent US operation where their air assets have just run rampant on any enemy hardpoints.
What I’m reading at the moment is that the vast minefields that the Russians have laid down have caused sufficient attrition to the recently supplied Western gear* that the Ukrainians are now doing mine clearance by hand, slowing forward progress significantly.
*While they’ve lost equipment, particularly Bradleys, the machines have done what they’re designed to do, and protected the occupants.
Follow-up piece about the current situation;
isn't this the reason for the us providing cluster bombs, because they can trigger mines and hopefully clear large sections quickly?
isn’t this the reason for the us providing cluster bombs, because they can trigger mines and hopefully clear large sections quickly?
Clearing minefields isn't the primary purpose for cluster bombs. They're for clearing troops.
Images of Russian defensive lines in Ukraine typically show artillery with trenches in front and lines of anti-tank defences in front of that. The defences could have an additional line of trenches and anti-tank defences ahead. The mines are sown throughout
By clearing troops there's a chance of clearing mines too and, in theory, more mines will be cleared than dud US cluster bomblets left behind.
There are specific munitions and armoured vehicle attachments for clearing mines, e.g. MCLIC https://www.military.com/video/operations-and-strategy/mine-clearance/m58-mine-clearing-line-charge/4585953394001
PS The US-supplied munitions are 155mm artillery shells, rather than bombs. It's amazing that they're as reliable as they are when you consider the challenges of launching a shell full of bomblets 20-30km
It’s amazing that they’re as reliable as they are when you consider the challenges of launching a shell full of bomblets 20-30km
They should be, they've spent decades testing them on agricultural workers.
And their families.
At least it hasn't gone nuclear yet.
Like who?
What agricultural workers and their families were these shells tested on?
Where are these test ranges with live subjects living on them?
Where are these test ranges with live subjects living on them?
As in tested in use with the different wars the US and Russia has been involved in.
But you knew thats what I meant.
You know what, I can't be bothered. I'm with Mando. Knock yourself out...
Unconfirmed reports that explosions were heard on the Crimean Bridge and traffic is stopped.
Here's a video claimed to be from the bridge.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1680759823976247296
Good news !
Even if the columns are still sound, replacing the road deck is going to take time and require the bridge to be closed.
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1680806166115364869
UKR seem to be claiming responsibility. That's a change from their normal silence.
I imagine if they have the capacity to hit it at will, they'll be happy for all the Russians living in Crimea to know about it.
Be nice if they could do the railway side of it again.
Do we think that this could be a change of targets and activity?
train still running
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1680836011415175171?t=pc4RIjAqRfinV_GMHDdtfg&s=19
It would be good I think not to lose sight of the fact that a child was very seriously injured and both her parents killed in this attack. I do understand why the attack was carried out, that the Russians have killed a lot more civilians than Ukraine (and done so deliberately) and that ultimately the blame lands at Putin's door. But very sad nonetheless.
Yes sad civilians on all sides are getting caught up in this. Targetting the bridge at 3am was presumably to reduce potential civilian deaths as you'd think the bridge would be quieter at that time
I saw it claimed it was surface drones, which is interesting given the accuracy of storm shadow, it must be much harder to get boat drones through defenses than a cruise missle.
Grain deal stopped, will we see an immediate effect on prices in the west? Or have stocks been built up?
Well, we will certainly see prices go up - because even if there are stock piles our lovely country will use the opportunity to profit more.....
I do understand why the attack was carried out, that the Russians have killed a lot more civilians than Ukraine
Unconfirmed reports elsewhere suggest it's 9 years ago today that Flight MH17 was shot down.
Grain deal stopped,
I thought Turkey had said they'd ensure the grain shipments were safe?
I thought Turkey had said they’d ensure the grain shipments were safe?
Doesnt matter what they say if the Russians cancel the agreement.
For those without a Twitter account, it is still possible to read many accounts through “Nitter” this doesn’t seem to require an account (for now)
Grain deal stopped, will we see an immediate effect on prices in the west? Or have stocks been built up?
Russia does this every time the deal is due for renewal. Reality is that it's revenue that they badly need, so we'll see what happens
Read this earlier; following this logic, it should give Ukraine and its allies tacit approval to bomb the State Duma in Moscow, while it’s occupied. Every word spoken by Russians clearly describes themselves.
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev added: “The world and our own experience shows that it is impossible to fight terrorists with international sanctions, intimidation or exhortations. They only understand the language of power. Only personal and completely inhumane methods.
“Therefore, it is necessary to blow up their own houses and the houses of their relatives. Look for and eliminate their accomplices, abandoning the insipid idea of a trial against them.“But the main thing is to destroy the top leadership of terrorist formations, in whatever cracks these insects hide.It's difficult but possible.”
No change then... they've been trying to kill Zelensky from day 1, there were kill teams in Kyiv at the start of the war trying to track him down, some of whom were disguised as ambulance crews. (another war crime to add to the pile.)
As per usual Russian carping is utterly undermined by their own proven and documented actions.
Russias targeted the ports and grain silos. Surely that’s going to hurt the rest of the world more than ukraine? Anyways another shitty play to join the rest
It's going to have a major impact on Africa in particular as Ukranian grain is a staple food for millions there.
I'm sure Russia's disinformation ops are already flat out trying to convince the countries affected that its all NATO's fault.
Time will tell whether or not they make it stick.
Hmm, couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1682340021397868545
amazed its taken this long
What sort of support does Girkin have that hes been able to badmouth Putin for months?
What sort of support does Girkin have that hes been able to badmouth Putin for months?
"A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in Ukraine." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2023
these clampdowns either Putin desperately trying to regain his reputation or his successors playing the game of thrones waiting for his demise?