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Parts of UK Tornado aircraft have been grafted onto Ukrainian Su-24 aircraft; solder and duct tape is a thing of the past 🙂 https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/retired-tornado-parts-used-to-launch-ukrainian-storm-shadows/
Thanks for the link piemaster. Worth reading.
Its an interesting take on it and worth a read, although I still view the true state of Russias economy as undetermined, I just dont buy into anyone having enough good (honest) data.
It's pretty clear that Russia has been cooking the books to cover up the effect of Western sanctions and the lack of trustworthy statistics means they have been pretty successful in this effort so far.
However.... historically, the longer and harder a regieme artificially manipulates their economic data the bigger the economic shock when it all comes falling down , as it inevitably will at some point, you can only defy gravity for so long.
I guess Putin's logic is that his obfuscation will last longer than the West's unity and will to support Ukraine.
With the likes of Trump and Orban out there it's a bet he may yet win.
Well, who could have foreseen this happening?
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1675753258055286784
Well, who could have foreseen this happening?
The marketing board just needs to put a bit of effort in. Perhaps "upset that shonky sub sank since now you dont know where to get your adventure thrills. Visit Crimea".
Another unforseen consequnece is a 50% drop in house prices in Crimea
Have a look on twitter, @DefenceU has made a travel advisory video for visitors to Crimea...
"Something went wrong. Try reloading."
Twitter is dead. Probably time to start posting direct links to original media, rather than using twitter previews.
Can’t read anything without an account
You used to be able to. Twitter has been undergoing changes under its new owner...
It's here as well... https://metro.co.uk/video/ukrainian-defence-ministry-message-russians-planning-crimea-holidays-2971341/
“Something went wrong. Try reloading.”
Twitter is dead. Probably time to start posting direct links to original media, rather than using twitter previews.
I couldn't find it earlier but it's from the MOD, Ukraine... https://metro.co.uk/video/ukrainian-defence-ministry-message-russians-planning-crimea-holidays-2971341/
Twitter is a mess. You used to be able to read without an account, then that stopped. So I started an account so I could look at it again, then it just went into meltdown and sometimes I can look, other's not. Currently I think I can. But who knows?
Re Twitter....
View 6000 posts a day for paid up members.
600 a day for freeloaders with an account.
300 a day for new members.
Don't know what that means for non-members.
lot of debate whether man portable fire and forget anti tank missiles ring the death knell of the tank.... long range artillery firing smart munitions "hold my beer".
Impressive stuff 👍
Nuts footage of an ammo dump (RU seem to take dump too literally) going up in occupied Donetsk Oblast
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1676503590268026883?t=PwRRfykeC8cy30kZdWCjfQ&s=19
And again this evening
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1676681322671030272?t=k1MJMc0XA3OpN2VpDOgmZQ&s=19
I have no idea what's going on anymore
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1676708216938328065?t=eBEcsnL237XnFiVEF3zmBg&s=19
He had wigs
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1676657987367084056?t=yTJ59SId-RPek3jLbISxxw&s=19
He was allegedly in st Petersburg yesterday also reported to have been given all his cash back. People have fell out of windows for less than his antics.
I don’t have a twitter account- looks like I can’t see the thread 🤷♂️ it used to be possible without an account.
Twitter links are now essentially useless.
Twitter links are now essentially useless.
Not if you create a Twitter account using a throw-away email address and then sign in.
I don’t have a twitter account- looks like I can’t see the thread 🤷♂️ it used to be possible without an account.
I don't have an account either and the link is working for me.
The other day I kept getting 'Oops somethings gone wrong' message with a 'retry' which basically did nowt. But clicked on that link above you, and its gone through ok. MAybe Musk has had a change of heart or been told to make it open to all. or something.
Basically it appears to be an arms dump going up with this as the translated explanation.
" Arya, the nasty dill hit the hospital (tm), but it was we who just placed a warehouse with a pile of BC in the middle of residential microdistricts (c) rosprop "
Apparently the Euro and Ruble have reached a kind of parity...
In December 2022, gas tariffs for the population were increased by 8.5%, which was the strongest one-time increase in the last 9 years. As a result of new indexations, gas for citizens will rise in total by almost 25% over four years.
Never in recent years have gas prices grown so rapidly: in 2021, indexation was 3%, in 2020 - 3%, in 2019 - 1.4%, in 2018 - 3.4%, in 2017 - m - 3.9%, and in 2015 and 2016 - 7.5% each.
The last sharp increase in gas tariffs - by 15% per year - was carried out in 2013. But now the authorities are returning to increase the burden on consumers against the backdrop of a sharp deterioration in the financial position of Gazprom.
*I dont have Moscow Times as impartial
MAybe Musk has had a change of heart or been told to make it open to all. or something.
Yes he's quietly reversed that one
These financial issues such as rouble/pound and gas prices - is this that as well as plummeting economy, Pootin has been both propping up as much as he can and raiding every source of funds he can? If this is the case, how quickly will things economically drop?
Cluster bombs approved by US....
Hopefully this will speed things up for Ukraine 🇺🇦!
These financial issues such as rouble/pound and gas prices – is this that as well as plummeting economy, Pootin has been both propping up as much as he can and raiding every source of funds he can? If this is the case, how quickly will things economically drop?
I doubt we'll see any sort of economic collapse. Possibly just a deterioration. Its not like weve not experienced significant energy price rises in the UK without imploding (despite it being regularly prophesised). But, assuming its true it might be an indicator the figures previously released by the Kremlin on the Russian economy might not be 100% honest.
According to this https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/ukraine-get-us-cluster-bombs-turkey-backs-nato-membership-bid.1042430
Turkey is in some form, backing Ukrainian membership of NATO.
But while reaffirming his longstanding call for both sides to enter peace negotiations, Erdogan risked drawing the ire of Russian President Vladimir Putin by delivering unequivocal support for Ukraine's NATO aspiration.
"There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves membership of NATO," Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul.
Cynically I read that as potentially Erdogan reading that Ukraine wont be able to push Russia back to pre Jan 22 borders or further and is seeking to counterbalance increased Russian territorial presence in the Black Sea.
Theres some talk about the Cluster munitions in there too. Interestingly Im also seeing talk of Turkey sending artillery to Ukraine which, along with the positive talk about NATO membership is/would be a notable shift from Erdogan.
On cluster munitions, whilst looking for something else, I found this dated January 23, which suggests Turkey had been sending cluster munitions since late 22
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10/turkey-cold-war-cluster-bombs-ukraine/
Im firmly in the camp that opposes cluster bombs, but then, im not living in a country facing an existential fight for survival.
Yup, I'm pretty queasy about their use as well, but if there was a short list of scenarios that justified their usage then I suspect
"Resisiting a genocidal invasion from a numerically superior foe unbound from any if the laws of war"
Would be on there.
The talk of Turkish artillery seems to be based on this interview which makes no mention of numbers
I suspect they will be very effective against the dug in RU front lines. Hopefully not used in urban areas.
Im firmly in the camp that opposes cluster bombs, but then, im not living in a country facing an existential fight for survival.
The problem with arms control agreements is that they require both sides in a conflict to abide by them. Russia has deliberately and blatantly ignored any limits on its actions, it pretty much boasts about committing war crimes and has used cluster munitions against Ukrainian civilians. For Ukraine to use them against Russian military targets is completely justified given Russia's endless list of war crimes.
The term "cluster bomb" is so generic that it immediately evokes media reports of civilians losing limbs years after a war has ended, and no, they aren't perfect. Other weapons have passed with little comment by human rights organisations, such as the use by Russian forces of incendiary munitions https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65506993
The 2006 Lebanon War is highlighted in the FP article linked ^^ but Ukraine's use will be quite different as will the weapons used. We have to remember that both Russia and Ukraine have already sowed mines, the BBC report that 174,000 sq km of Ukraine is affected. It's also clear that Russia have been using cluster munitions https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65204053
According the US DOD some of the Russian weapons have a 40% failure rate but will remain lethal for years. The US-supplied weapons will have a 2.35% failure rate https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3451905/dod-announces-800m-security-assistance-package-for-ukraine/
The DOD hasn't specified the actual bomblet, but it's likely that the US weapons are similar to hand grenades in size and will explode on impact, with a secondary timer should they land in soft ground. The bonus for the civilian population is that they will clear mines over a larger area than a single shell, if they contact them, as well as clear trenches.
With controlled use by Ukraine in specific areas these weapons will, in theory, clear more mines than the dud bomblets that they leave behind
Came here to rant about the arms being delivered… read the above posts… going away to read more and perhaps reconsider before saying anything more for now. Thanks for the nuance and information… could change my mind.
According the US DOD some of the Russian weapons have a 40% failure rate but will remain lethal for years. The US-supplied weapons will have a 2.35% failure rate
real life use (eg Desert Storm) the failure rate was nearer 15%. The gov supplied figures were on a range with hard dry ground with no vegetation. I'm not sure how they will help clear trenches - presumably people go straight to dugout/bunker things when bombardments start? Additionally, the duds act as mines when you send a person into the trench.
Still, they must have been asked for, but perhaps because they can't find enough regular shells?
I have 2 additions to this discussion.
1: Apparently the cluster ammunition can be stripped and the individual bomblets make perfect munitions for being dropped from small commercial drones. This could be a major factor in why Ukraine was pushing for them.
2: The first documented case of the use of cluster munitions in this war was on the 25th of Feb 2022, by Russia, against a Hospital. So anyone talking about this being an 'escalation' can do one. Russia was deliberately targeting civilians with these weapons from day 1.
With controlled use by Ukraine in specific areas these weapons will, in theory, clear more mines than the dud bomblets that they leave behind
There seems to be a few folk who do 'defense' for a living on Twitter and in some online papers suggesting this is a major upside. Of course it's from a US/Ukr perspective and has a propaganda element, but it does seem to make se sense.
I'm trying to put this into perspective - Russia has a far, far worse approach to this. They are leaving vast areas mined and booby trapped, as well as live munitions all over and apparently most is unmapped and not laid with much care for 'what about civilians?'. Ukraine will use these cluster munitions, but if they can end Russia's terrorism earlier, I think it will save more lives now and in the future.
It looks like a desperate move. Despite everything mentioned above, I feel it is something to be concerned about rather than welcomed. The UK should push back against it, even if the alternative is increasing supplies of other hardware, including tactical air support.
The problem with arms control agreements is that they require both sides in a conflict to abide by them. Russia has deliberately and blatantly ignored any limits on its actions, it pretty much boasts about committing war crimes and has used cluster munitions against Ukrainian civilians. For Ukraine to use them against Russian military targets is completely justified given Russia’s endless list of war crimes
Exactly.
real life use (eg Desert Storm) the failure rate was nearer 15%. The gov supplied figures were on a range with hard dry ground with no vegetation
The failure rate is debatable, but the testing was carried out since Desert Storm (1990-91). The five tests that the US has relied upon were conducted between 1998 and 2020 and have concentrated on live firing of samples from ammunition batches. The tests are classified, which means that we don't know how they were conducted.
What the US has said is that they will supply from known good batches, "Instead, we'll be providing our most modern DPICMs with dud rates assessed to be under 2.35 percent, demonstrated through five comprehensive tests conducted by the Department of Defense between 1998 and 2020. So, we're confident in those numbers." Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl 7/7/2023
I’m not sure how they will help clear trenches – presumably people go straight to dugout/bunker things when bombardments start? Additionally, the duds act as mines when you send a person into the trench.
Trenches are narrow to reduce the effectiveness of air burst weapons, but around 80 bomblets spread over a large area with an armour piercing capability will have an effect. Importantly it allows industry to catch up; it's thought that one cluster round is equivalent to several unitary rounds against entrenched troops.
Still, they must have been asked for, but perhaps because they can’t find enough regular shells?
Absolutely. We have to remember that Ukraine is asking for these to use on Ukrainian soil.
"I mean, frankly, I think the graver concern is that they wander into a Russian minefield or areas where the Russians have expended weapons with a much higher dead rate.I think that this is a reason, though, A, that we're only transferring DPICM with a very low dud rate. There are variants with higher dud rates that that we're not transferring. And B, why it will be important for the Ukrainians to keep track of where they're firing these things, both for immediate force protection reasons and over the medium-to-longer term for demining operations in kind of post-occupation, post-liberation parts of Ukraine." Dr Kahl 7/7/2023
It looks like a desperate move. Despite everything mentioned above, I feel it is something to be concerned about rather than welcomed. The UK should push back against it, even if the alternative is increasing supplies of other hardware, including tactical air support.
We don't have cluster munitions. If we needed them then we'd have to ask either the US or Ukraine 🙂
Rishi Sunak agrees with you https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/08/ukraine-cluster-munitions-rishi-sunak-aid