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Full MemberWhen they make a movie of this, Vin Diesel is a shoe-in to play Prigozhin
Let's wait and see, people that anger Putin tend to end up getting played by Leonardo Dicaprio
So the incompetent & corrupt Shoigu & Gerasimov seem to be consolidating their power
Surovikin who was brutally effective & pragmatic (oversaw retreat from kherson) Has been arrested
Wagner disbanded…
Not a terrible result for Ukraine at all!
I know, right? The Russians seem to be very determined to keep their most effective resources away from the war as much as possible
Prig might control up to 25,000 mercenaries, but they've not all physically followed him into Belarus.
Now that Prig isn’t a cert will their be a power struggle in Wagner?
Now that Prig isn’t a cert will their be a power struggle in Wagner?
I think the same could be said of Poo-tin.
Now that Prig isn’t a cert will their be a power struggle in Wagner?
Any successor would need a source of funding. Without cash, mercenaries tend to go elsewhere.
No idea why the US and EU has not prescribed Wagner as a terrorist organisation which, now Putin has admitted to bankrolling them, would make him a sponsor.
Very scary when men are recording a message to say they are refusing orders, and if any are killed it will be by FSB not the enemy...and that this is a record for their relatives to know that they are (currently) alive and well but surrendering to FSB/Military Police...
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1674370881332686851?s=20
"Potentially" another item to the list of things I didn't think Ukraine would get, but eventually did.
Paywalled.
Here you go for the meat of the piece
Officials said that the matter is pending approval at the highest levels. But officials in the U.S. and Europe have seen signs that previously reluctant quarters of the U.S. government, namely the White House, have come to see an urgent need to bolster Ukraine’s fight in the coming weeks.
But amid the domestic turmoil in Russia, where over the weekend the founder of the Wagner mercenary force staged an abortive mutiny, U.S. and European officials acknowledged that now might be the time to step on the gas.
A senior Ukrainian defense official told The Wall Street Journal that Kyiv had received positive signs in recent weeks that the U.S. had come around on the ATACMS system. Ukrainian officials have argued that the long-range missiles are needed, in part, to strike into Crimea, the peninsula occupied by Russia that Russian forces are using as a base to launch Iranian-made drones, according to public statements by the U.S. and its European allies
See above!
I dont think Wagner is disbanded, now or any time soon. They’re needed in Syria, Africa etc. Which means Prigozhin is also probably safe for now at least
Perhaps not 'disbanded' but the plan is to co-opt them into the regular Russian army. The soldiers are being leaned on to sign regular contracts putting them under the command of Shoigu et al. So they could stay in Africa etc, just wearing a slightly different badge. And Prigozhin could then be easily replaced if he got a bit too uppity. So he was in a bit of a desperate situation when he marched on Rostov; he had to do something to maintain his position of power.
This article is from a week or so before Prigozhin's mutiny:
Interesting take here.
UKRAINE COUNTER_OFFENSIVE: Reading between the lines. June 28 and we see Ukrainians advances accelerating across a broad number of areas on the front. [Even making Russia state TV]. The strategy has been to force engagement and fix the front while destroying reserve concentrations, HQs, artillery, AD and ammo centers that are behind the lines. The Russians rushed reserve units forward days ago and these have been reduced, destroyed or pushed back in most cases.
Russian losses are breaking monthly and daily records at a time when there is less Russian eqpt to lose and of poorer quality. Detailed reports on locations are not being provided by UKR army due to opsec.
But we know from what is provided and from Russian sources, the war is not going well for Russians. About 80% of the Ukrainian units organized and equipped for the counter-offensive have NOT been committed. These are very well-equipped and highly mobile units. They will attack the seams or gaps opened up or discovered by the initial UKR engaged units.
I sense that we are getting much closer to the day when this will happen and all hell will break loose on the Russian occupiers.
My thinking is broadly in line with this. The mutiny and the subsequent removal of Wagner, disappearance of Surovikin and sacking of his number two, will only accelerate this process. These are interesting (distressing, the Russians really don’t care about their people) stats on the levels of attrition..
Britain lead the way with Stormshadow (and Challenger II) - the US finally seeing the light with ATACMS?
Britain lead the way with Stormshadow (and Challenger II) – the US finally seeing the light with ATACMS?
Not so far...
"GEN. RYDER: So I've seen the reporting. I will tell you I don't have anything to announce regarding ATACMS, and certainly I'm -- I'm not aware of any imminent decisions as it relates to ATACMS." https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3444912/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-a-press-briefing/
It seems that Wagner PMC hackers are hacking Russian Satellite Comms and disrupting some parts of the Russian state https://uk.pcmag.com/security/147562/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider
More windows and falling going on. She seems very young to have been a bank VP.
https://twitter.com/g900ap/status/1674504758298570752?s=20
<p style="text-align: left;">Putin's man the the west Orban, blocking further funding.</p>
She seems very young to have been a bank VP.
Depends if they are copying the US financial industries approach to job titles.
VP is just a couple of rungs up the ladder and there will be thousands of them at the main banks.
Not a low paid job but not what normal people think when they hear "vice president".
Very confusing when you first come across it and wonder why someone so senior is in a meeting with a pleb like me.
VP is bascially a team lead in banking terms
Associate director is normally a head of function
As for the unfortunately lady, did she have any connections with the big players? I know its implausible, but it might have actually been an accident....
this is a record for their relatives to know that they are (currently) alive and well but surrendering to FSB/Military Police
That is so incredibly bleak.
Well done Russia, great work.
Looks like she was quite senior. From another tweet with the tweet above. I don’t know how to link to the other tweet so copied the text. No idea if this is true.
“Kristina Baikova was not only the bank’s VP but also the head of corporate banking division. She had over 100 bankers under her section with a client list of about 1000+ companies that include names like Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, Norilsk Nickel, and Sberbank. This is the most profitable side of Loko Bank. The entire bank’s total asset is around $2.7B and the corporate division contributed $1.3B of the total, almost half of the bank’s total assets.”
“Kristina Baikova was not only the bank’s VP but also the head of corporate banking division. She had over 100 bankers under her section with a client list of about 1000+ companies that include names like Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, Norilsk Nickel, and Sberbank. This is the most profitable side of Loko Bank. The entire bank’s total asset is around $2.7B and the corporate division contributed $1.3B of the total, almost half of the bank’s total assets.”
My guess is that either a whole lot of money is missing and someone thought she might know where it is, or someone wants a whole lot of money to go missing and she was the person they needed to sign off on it. Whatever the case, I would treat those numbers as pure fiction.
Whatever the case, I would treat those [s]numbers[/s] [b]anything being said in Russia[/b] as pure fiction.
FTFY
or potentially what links did she have, given the FSB targeted family members of Wagner leaders to apply pressure.
My litmus test for the Putin regime being in serious jeopardy will be the sight of certain public figures in countries outside Russia suddenly finding a reason to leave their home country. I do not mean that in any flippant way, I genuinely think that will be a sign the writing is on the wall.
My litmus test for the Putin regime being in serious jeopardy will be the sight of certain public figures in countries outside Russia suddenly finding a reason to leave their home country. I do not mean that in any flippant way, I genuinely think that will be a sign the writing is on the wall.
You're going to have to explain this one to me! Are we talking about Trump or something?!
I am not sure Mr Trump would be at liberty to go anywhere shermer. I am thinking more populist right wing figures pushing agendas in their own countries which align with Russian strategic objectives to destablilise and undermine. The sort of folks with opaque campaign funding sources and even more opaque personal financial arrangments.
Apparently one Mr Nigel Farage in having trouble finding a bank who will open him an account because of links to Russian money. Is that the kind of thing you were thinking about? 😁
Apparently one Mr Nigel Farage in having trouble finding a bank who will open him an account
Thew - funny you should say that. I see he has also commented it may result in him having to leave the UK.
Thew – funny you should say that. I see he has also commented it may result in him having to leave the UK.
What is that quote about the dildo of consequence?
Do you mean Steven Seagal, heading for Moscow to roundhouse kick anybody plotting a coup?
Steven Seagull in his current version couldn't roundhouse kick a sausage dog.
What is that quote about the dildo of consequence?
Here's the original Greek.
Reports coming in that along with other successful (albeit small scale) advances, the Ukrainians have taken the settlement of Klishchiivka South of Bakhmut. This is important as it not only opens up flank attacks into Bakhmut itself, it has also acted as a strong point, protecting the RA Southen flank and means that the UA can push to properly encircle Bakhmut, assuming they can push through Yahidne to the north.
Very early stage chatter though, but significant if true!
Is this article by two Yale professors, the same teo professors that argued Russias true economic situation was much poorer 3 to 6 months back?
https://time.com/6291642/putin-cannibalizes-russian-economy/
Mr Nigel Farage in having trouble finding a bank who will open him an account because of links to Russian money
We still don't know where Aaron Banks got the money for the millions he donated to the leave campaign. But we do know he likes to go legal on anyone who asks too many questions about it (i.e. Carole Cadwalladr).
There are around $200bn of Russian money frozen in European banks. The interest alone would produce $3bn pa without getting into the legalities of seizing assets that will doubtless be argued as nothing to do with the Russian state
The total assets including property, if seized, would be a sizeable proportion of the bill to rebuild Ukraine
Thanks for the link piemaster. Worth reading.
The BBC reports that 8 WW2 Hurricanes have been found buried in Ukraine. Aircraft that weren't intact didn't have to be paid for by the Soviet Union under lend-lease https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65955365