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This is so obvious that I'm surprised David Frum even bothered to post it.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1673320347712593921
Uncle Joe didn’t scarper when Adolf came knocking. Actually, Adolf stayed in Berlin ’till the end, too.
More pertinently, neither did Zelenskyy even though he was offered safe passage by the Americans. A lot of these so called hard-men leaders are anything in the face of personal risk. It's a very undeserved term.
Surely it wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that Putin would go after your family if you go against him. Seems a huge oversight to have not ensured they were out of harms way first.
Seems a huge oversight to have not ensured they were out of harms way first.
Is there such a thing as 'out of harm's way' when it comes to Vlad and his FSB stooges?
“Is there such a thing as ‘out of harm’s way’ when it comes to Vlad and his FSB stooges?”
Probably not. I guess that leaves two options, consider them collateral damage or don’t go against him in the first place.
Prigozhin left his family as sitting ducks, having started an insurrection? Doesn’t add up 🤷♂️
There is an awful lot here that doesn't add up. Is it we are looking for rational thought from non rational people?
consider them collateral damage
Bloke's a psycho, I wouldn't rule it out
There is an awful lot here that doesn’t add up. Is it we are looking for rational thought from non rational people?
They're might be psychos, however they aren't stupid and this can't have been unforeseen consequences. Which then makes me worry that they were foreseen and there's some 4D chess move coming. Don't ask me what though.....
Prigozhin, Wagner mercs, supportive elements in army and government you need a lot of support to mount an insurrection - they all have family could be 10s of thousands of people to try and keep safe, unfortunately it's not like the movies.
There is an awful lot here that doesn’t add up. Is it we are looking for rational thought from non rational people?
This works:
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."
Is it we are looking for rational thought from non rational people?
There was a comment on on a Twitter thread that essentially said; these guys are a Mafia crime syndicate, view everything they do through that lens, NOT as if they're a function government with all the normalcy and bureaucracy that that entails. The events of the weekend make more sense that way.
There was a comment on on a Twitter thread that essentially said; these guys are a Mafia crime syndicate, view everything they do through that lens, NOT as if they’re a function government with all the normalcy and bureaucracy that that entails. The events of the weekend make more sense that way.
No honour among thieves (or politicians).
The events of the weekend make more sense that way.
Nah, they still are weird without the full backstory....
Probably not. I guess that leaves two options, consider them collateral damage or don’t go against him in the first place.
Keyser Soze would’ve finished the march on Moscow. Just saying 🤔
That twitter breakdown seems to make some sense,
MOD tells Prig to hand over his mercs
he says no, goes to hand over equipment. Assassination attempt by MOD
goes full hatstand, thinks he has the support to get the guys in the MOD that tried to kill him
Putin backs MOD, raids Wagner hq, abducts/threatens family
Not as many as needed support Prig
Prig has to back out.
Deal is struck to let him keep mercs by using belarus
Likely Prig will be dead soon as an example for stepping out of line, in a very obvious way
It certainly sounds plausible, like Putin has gone full Emperor Palpatine;
As you can see, my young apprentice, your friends have failed. Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational Death Tsar!
Lots of talk on Twitter of big announcements tonight from Putin and Lukashenko…
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1673407261778100224?s=12&t=EQoHg-RGok071Fjc15ZHKw
Keyser Soze would’ve finished the march
Might take a while with the limp
A good, short watch.
*warning* some scenes of injury/gore in a hospital setting.
It certainly sounds plausible, like Putin has gone full Emperor Palpatine;
As you can see, my young apprentice, your friends have failed. Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational Death Tsar!
Very good!
Putin's speech was a nothing-burger, he looks more corpse like than ever
Slight aside and not a derail of this thread..
Russians shelled a market in Syria yesterday, killing a lot of fruit and farmers... Caught up in this is an animal rescue centre I support. They try to patch up animals caught up in the war only to be hit themselves. Fortunately no staff losses but a lot of animals died from shock and shrapnel....
Putin blaming The West again for the fued with insubordinate lieutenant.
When will the Russian people begin to get the message that the whole of the 'west' (Europe, the US, Japan, Korea, Oceania etc) not a homogeneous group, are not backing Nazis in Ukraine but in fact defending it from 19th century imperialists who backed by 5 or 6 countries you wouldn't want to live in.
Putin blaming The West again for the fued with insubordinate lieutenant.
When will the Russian people begin to get the message that the whole of the ‘west’ (Europe, the US, Japan, Korea, Oceania etc) not a homogeneous group, are not backing Nazis in Ukraine but in fact defending it from 19th century imperialists who backed by 5 or 6 countries you wouldn’t want to live in.
I don't get the impression they "back" Putin. Vox Pops from inside Russia (and have for the last couple of decades) usually boil down to 'he's our president, that's how the government works in Russia'. It's a reductionist view of "whoever you vote for the politicians win" mixed with the usual right-ish politic of the governments actions don't have any impact on you so why either expect handouts of care, just get on with doing things for yourself, and an acceptance that the government is corrupt, unchangeable but generally gets things done when needed.
Or put another way, it's Putin's war, not a democratically elected governments war, and as such why bother getting angry if you can't do anything about it, you'll just end up on the wrong side of Putin.
euromaidan press reports this today...
Russians drop chemical munitions on Ukraine’s Armed Forces, but the wind blows toward Russian occupiers, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “Valerii Shershen, the spokesperson for the Joint Press Centre for the Tavriia front Defence Forces, has said that the Russian invaders dropped chemical ammunition on one of the positions of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, but the wind was blowing toward the Russians.
We recorded the fact of dropping a prohibited chemical munition with an aerosol-suffocating effect on one of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The wind was [blowing] toward the enemy. Shershen did not provide any additional information. He also did not confirm whether there were any victims among Ukraine’s Armed Forces.”
Prigozhin in one of the only hotels in Minsk without a window, says US official
Yevgeny Prigozhin has landed in Belarus and is staying in one of the few hotels in the capital that does not have any windows, a US official has said.
The Wagner leader was told to flee to Belarus as part of a deal to end his group's armed rebellion on Saturday.
He was last seen in public leaving the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after calling off his troops, and there has been speculation about his whereabouts since then.
US Senate Intelligence Chair Mark Warner told NBC News Prigozhin is in Minsk, and he believes he is in a hotel with no window.
"I understand, literally as I was coming on air, that he says he's in Minsk and he actually is," he said.
"And get this – this is just reports – that he is in one of the only hotels in Minsk that does not have any windows."
Mr Warner suggested this could be to protect him against assassination attempts.
It better be a bungalow hotel with no windows, no door handles, no tea or umbrella stands and no laundry facility to prevent polonium pants syndrome.
Flight RSD898 from VKO (Moscow) to IAD (Washington) is due to land at 13:15 Washington time, which is 18:15 UK time.
I wonder what's going on?
How did you spot that!?
Flight RSD898
I wonder what’s going on?
Collecting $6bn?
Is it shoogling around international borders and airspace?
https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD898/30e449fe
Is it shoogling around international borders and airspace?
Yes, but it's not that far off a great circle route anyway.
Very strange, just turned N towards Greenland. Prigozhin about to have a rapid unscheduled fluid interface?
Edit: disappeared
Now it has been removed from tracking...
...soooo, it's disappeared! 😬
pretty nasty vid on utube of a russian bmp running over one their own anti-tank mines. Anti tank mines make a fearful mess of bmps 🙁
…soooo, it’s disappeared! 😬
Am I right in thinking that just means it's not on radar. Which makes sense in the middle of nowhere. It was visible off Norway, then disappeared for an hour, re-appeared off Iceland, and now disappeared again.
The Wagner mercenary group was entirely financed by the Russian state, which spent 86 billion roubles ($1 billion) on it between May 2022 and May 2023, Russian president Vladimir Putin said.
In addition, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the group’s brief mutiny last Saturday, made almost as much during the same period from his food and catering business, Putin said at a meeting with security forces.
From the Guardian. That's brilliant - I'm getting into catering... I mean, why even bother pretending you're legitimate.
I don’t get the impression they “back” Putin. Vox Pops from inside Russia
Except in my last role post Crimean invasion our sizable Moscow office saw no issue with this invasion, disliked NATO encroachment and supported at a level any western leadership would envy.
No idea how they feel now as we pulled out.
I’m getting into catering
You could start by hammering frozen sausages into the lawn of Putins Crimean holiday home...and Putin has a dog and you know how that goes....
pretty nasty vid on utube of a russian bmp running over one their own anti-tank mines. Anti tank mines make a fearful mess of bmps
Shrug
What's rhe pay differential between Wagner and russian MoD contract, will the core mercenaries from Wagner sign up or just drift off to africa via belarus to earn some proper money?