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Does anyone know if the bald turd has actually got to belarus?
Rumour that uncle Lukka is not well and will hand over Belarus presidency to Pregoshun...
What's he been drinking?
…hmm - prigohrzin was a chef!! 😳😳🤔🤔
Will the people of Belarus welcome their new facist overlord?
hobson's choice!
Thing is, from Putin's perspective... he ain't wrong
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If you were a Russian politician with designs on the top job, you'd be watching very closely right now and making sure everyone knew you were right behind Putin. Because as Sir Humphrey said: It is necessary to get behind someone in order to stab them in the back.
As hinted at above, there's now an opportunity for Prigo to open a northern front into UKR on Vlad's behalf. Split and weaken UKR forces to dilute their counter offensive in the south. Well done Prigo, here's Belarus as a wee minding. Are they that sleekit?
Ukraine have had a long time to set up defences along that border. Along with already stationing forces there for guarding against both Belarusian and Russian forces stationed in Belarus, threat of a renewed invasion through Belarus isnt a new thing. And Russia can no longer use those troops to defend against any Ukrainian offensive operations.
That said, a military strategist I most definitely am not.
I share downshep's view. Significant and worrying that Wagner is respositioning to Belarus.
I'm not so sure Prigozin will be leading another military force that could achieve battlefield success and be positively compared to the Russian army.
That is exactly the scenario that gave him the ability to stage the coup.
There is no way Putin will allow him that sort of opportunity again.
My guess is that Prigozin will die in a car accident on his way to exile in Belarus.
Failing that, he'll soon catch a dose of novichok from the handle on his toilet in the new house.
…hmm – prigohrzin was a chef!!
Not exactly. He was referred to as Putin's Chef. Like Putin when he was younger he was a criminal. He then went on to sell hotdogs, opened a restaurant, then a chain, then started getting government catering contracts, etc. etc.
I bet he can't make a decent bacon butty.
Worth a read.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-34?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
I share downshep’s view. Significant and worrying that Wagner is respositioning to Belarus.
But so far there's no sign Wagner is going to Belarus, only Prigohrzin
Russia needs troops on the existing front lines, opening up a new one- is that feasible?
Putin DOES need Prigohrzins operation in Afica, it's worth billions and gives Russia influence & leverage across the continent.
I've no idea if putin can untangle Prigohrzin from Wagner in Africa, that is surely a major factor in why he's still alive
I also wonder about the putin chemo stuff, he looked pale & wobbly in his address, without going too tinfoil hat, pancreatic cancer (if that's what it is) has a poor survival rate, I wonder how much is jockeying among the elites over who gets the job next
He doesn't look jaundiced. Embalmed maybe?
But so far there’s no sign Wagner is going to Belarus, only Prigohrzin
Also, why would you need to undertake this course of action when you could simply redeploy Wagner.
Wagner rallied behind Prigohrzin in his aim to force change in the Russian army it's not going to be as simple as saying OK now you are under control of said army,
It's almost as if there is a suppression of any information to keep everyone in the dark and hoping it all blows over.
kimbers
I also wonder about the putin chemo stuff, he looked pale & wobbly in his address, without going too tinfoil hat, pancreatic cancer (if that’s what it is) has a poor survival rate, I wonder how much is jockeying among the elites over who gets the job next
People have been way too harsh on Putin, I'd literally give him the blood from my veins if he need it.
I don't think Wagner could mount a combined arms offensive on their own from Belarus. I think any that are there are there to keep the local population under the jackboot.
I'm seeing initial reports of an attempted Ukrainian bridgehead over the Dnieper near the Antanovsky Bridge supported by heavy artillery fire from the right bank.
Russians in that location have been desperately trying to call for air strikes over Telegram, which tends to be a sign that they're under the cosh.
Could turn out to be nothing, could be we are seeing the first major moves in that direction now that the areas flooded by the dam's destruction are starting to dry out.
But so far there’s no sign Wagner is going to Belarus, only Prigohrzin
That seems to be the case...ISWs report on the rebellion... https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023
I don't think that Ukraine had the time to exploit the rebellion before it was all over. For many Russian soldiers it would probably be business as usual while their commanders were sitting tight to see what happened.
The greater advantage was the loss of several Russian helicopters and a Russian Ilyushin-22, which may have been a command and comms version and difficult to replace. SM also reports the loss of an Antonov transport aircraft
The historical perspective won't have escaped President Putin; the 1905 rebellion was a precursor to the events of 1917
Cold water being poured on the idea that the moves across the Dneiper last night were a sign of anything major to come there.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1673092990879907841?cxt=HHwWgoC-2b7NgrguAAAA
I wonder if prigohrzin has just given us a teaser of what the post putin transfer of power might look like
genuinely surprised there are no gaps in a 600mile long front, seems the Russians have been doing a good job on building up their defences,
maybe Ukr just need to shout about rebellion and drive north watching the regular army just let them past…..
can’t believe that’s the whole story on Wagner. Shout rebellion, down a few Helios and planes, and then just pack up and say “got you!” And call the whole thing off?? If there hadn’t been some downed aircraft I would have said the whole thing was a bluff. Even now still not sure,
Shitgoo arrested according to Russian tiktok - so take that news with a public health warning! 🤷♂️
Russian news reporting that Prighorzin is still being investigated for treason, ultra- nationalist influencers calling for his head on telegram & state TV
Recentish video of Shoigu has been released by government so assuming hes not going anywhere
Video of Kadyrov soldiers beheading a Wagner on social media
Prighorzin disappeared, Putin quiet too
I imagine news of the mutiny is slowly filtering back to Russian front lines too
This ain't over, not by a long shot, not going to pretend I know where things will go from here though
ultra- nationalist influencers calling for his head on telegram & state TV
They do tend to also regularly call for Europe to be nuked, so let's hope they aren't that influential. It would be useful if Putin has visibly less control for a bit.
This ain’t over, not by a long shot, not going to pretend I know where things will go from here though
Me either. I get the impression that everyone in the Russian "elites" is just waiting for it all to kick off, I think it's clear that Prighorzin's coup/mutiny went better than any one thought it would, and Putin's looking incredibly weak after his army very clearly did not "rush" to his aid. In a country where political power rest entirely on projected strength, it all looks incredibly finely balanced.
Video of Kadyrov soldiers beheading a Wagner on social media
Can't see how there can be any expectation of all the various Russian military factions just going back to happily work together as if nothing had happened.
There are going to be all sorts reprisals and score settling going on and, knowing the people involved, they're not going to take the form of sternly-worded letters or being sent to bed with no pudding.
Here's my take; Putin isn't necessarily mad or misinformed. Putin is of the belief that to achieve your aims you need just need the force of will to see something through, and sacrificing others, lying, killing is all fair game if it gets your objective. He formed this belief decades ago as a scholar of past tsars and rulers (this was touched on in TraumaZone) and hasn't until now had that view challenged.
My guess is Prighorzin and Wagner had their families threatened by secret service - I've seen rumours - Prighorzin made concession something Putin would never do. The deal was probably a string of threats and lies about safety, this is a plausible explanation for the abrupt end of a big gamble, Lukashenko was the man for this so Putin has a layer of deniability. Radio silence isn't in Prighorzin playbook I'm starting to think he won't be seen again as a warning to anyone else. This would be all in keeping with the way Putin operates.
What this would ultimately mean is the conflict rumbles on with no clear winner and continued waste of human life…
The deal was probably a string of threats and lies about safety, this is a plausible explanation for the abrupt end of a big gamble
If you know they are lies, then surely Prighorzin must know too and would act accordingly?
Radio silence isn’t in Prighorzin playbook I’m starting to think he won’t be seen again as a warning to anyone else.
Wouldn't surprise me at all if he decided to do some window cleaning in the middle of the night and had a tragic 'accident'
Putin is apparently killing all Russian soldiers who refuse to fight in the war.
There are videos of supposed FSB going to Wagner fighters home did they round all the families of the top military Wagner?
Uncle Joe didn't scarper when Adolf came knocking. Actually, Adolf stayed in Berlin 'till the end, too.
But did Vlad run? If he did, that fact wont be lost on any challengers.
It seems to me like the secret service(s) actually hold the keys to the red castle and seeing your one-time comrade leg it at the first sign of trouble may make them pliant to offers of alternative management.
is there any evidence that Putin ran off?
Pro Ukrainian claims about the river crossing
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1673243893582938112?t=lg4OyAHVGuAsof3AeNvenw&s=19
ElShalimo
Free Member
is there any evidence that Putin ran off?
His plane took off from Moscow and flew in the direction of St Petersburg, but no confirmation that he was definitely on it
An awful lot of private jets set off from Moscow when the coup was in progress. Many of them were maybe just getting assets out of the way but there must still be a lot of displaced wealthy Russians at the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens to them now.
My guess is Prighorzin and Wagner had their families threatened by secret service [...snip...] The deal was probably a string of threats and lies about safety, this is a plausible explanation for the abrupt end of a big gamble
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If you know they are lies, then surely Prighorzin must know too and would act accordingly?
Conjecture but maybe Prighorzin has family he cares about an so was backed into corner,
His plane took off from Moscow and flew in the direction of St Petersburg, but no confirmation that he was definitely on it
A 15 second live speech or video from the Kremlin would have been all Putin would have needed to do to quash those rumours, the fact he hasn't done so strongly suggests he scarpered.