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^Yes "keeping the peace" aka exploiting unrest in various parts of Africa.
I think the thing that Lukashenko knows most of all is that if Putin goes, he’s next?
Some parallels with the 1991 coup to topple Gorbachev which also fizzled out but ultimately led to Putin?
Indeed there's a lot more going on than is in the public realm.
The only quote that can sum this up:
"Meanwhile, in Russia...."
Thats how I see it. this is not a stable situation
I think it will be best for his key lieutenants to avoid admiring the view from a 6th story window for a while and for him to avoid having a chat over a cup of tea.
What's in it for the typical Wagner merc? They were persuaded to march on Moscow I can see them being happy just to go back to Ukraine or get absorbed into the army. Soft assignment to Africa?
Lukashenko has had some health problems - nod and a wink that Prigozhin will 'inherit' the presidency soon? Can't see either of them living that long, but who knows?
Conspiracy 101
Prigozhin agrees to create a grumbling bit of theatre in Ukraine
(Mines and detonates a dam). He's a very naughty boy....
Withdraws to Rostov-On-Sea, grumbling theatre continues, Moscow fortified
Lukashenko's family and possibly him depart as seen on Flight radar to Turkey
Grumbling theatre continues and Widow T****y Prigozhin heads north with this entourage ra ra ra...
Luka has a word, Putin drops charges.
Widow T****y "banished" to Belarus and safe passage past Moscow
Prigozhin "given" Belarus and the nuclear codes
Does a bad thing from Belarus.
Luka exits stage right...
IANAMS...
I can't help feeling that this can end in only one way for Prigozhin.
What’s the significance of Prigohzin visiting Belarus? Recruit for his army? Take control of the nukes deposited there?
What’s the significance of Prigohzin visiting Belarus? Recruit for his army? Take control of the nukes deposited there?
He has probably been given the army to invade Ukraine.
I actually just laughed at the Social Media propaganda accounts trying to frame this as a failed CIA billion dollar plot thats made NATO a laughing stock.
The first thing to note is that very few know what's actually just happened, why, and what will happen. I don't 🙂
I have difficulty with the concept that President Putin can denounce "armed mutiny" on the one hand and offer Prigozhin a home in Belarus and immunity from prosecution for him and his PMC on the other while remaining credible. This can't be the end
In the short-term this can only be good for Ukraine:
Wagner PMC hasn't signed up and still isn't under control from Moscow which fragments command, comms and logistics, assuming that Wagner returns to Ukraine at all https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/14/vladimir-putin-sides-with-military-chiefs-placing-wagner-under-direct-control
Moscow has been avoiding further mobilisation of Russians but has 147,000 troops to find by mid-July, Wagner can't be included in that figure now and have their own recruitment offices competing for numbers. Ramzan Kadyrov had already signed his Chechen forces up https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-new-law-draft-russia-says-spring-call-up-is-running-planned-2023-04-15/
What concerns me is that all of this weakens President Putin who has been co-operative internationally on the subject of nuclear weapons, despite his bluster, and has increased maintenance and security of these weapons https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-mercenary-threat-revives-concern-over-nuclear-arsenal-security-2023-06-24/
Well normally it is the ousted head of state that is forced to accept exile in a country that is prepared to accept them, and failed challengers get the chop. So this is a little weird.
This is behind a paywall, but the Twitter summary is pretty much it.
https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/1672741439430701057
It's difficult to see what the endgame is for all players, they are all 'I'm protecting Russia by not doing the thing I said I would do' and ordinary Russian's are applauding whoever didn't get them killed that day 'we'll be safe once they go back to persecuting Ukrainians again'. It's almost as if no one has any idea how to get out of the hole they've dug.
It’s almost as if no one has any idea how to get out of the hole they’ve dug.
The core of the problem is that Putin spent 20 years surrounding himself with sycophants who told him what he wanted to hear. He launched this war under the delusion that Russia was much stronger than it really is and that Ukraine and the West were much weaker. The reports he will be getting from the military will still be hiding the worst of the bad news, so Putin probably still doesn't know how deep of a hole he is in. The only way for Putin to get out of the hole he's dug is to pull his army out of Ukraine and focus on regime survival.
As for Russia overall, the only way for it to recover from this is to be rid of Putin, put war criminal on trials, and hope that in 20 or 30 years they can reintegrate into the world. I doubt that's going to happen so I think they'll end up like North Korea.
All very odd and far from sorted. Feels like they both had an oh shit moment realising they were both in a no win situation. Cant see Prigo going to Belarus working long term he wont be able to keep his mouth shut and it leaves Putin looking really weak.
Leaves Ukraine in a better position for now but in the longer term are we edging closer to Putin doing something desperate and stupid?
...only with more, better nukes.
It’s difficult to see what the endgame is for all players, they are all ‘I’m protecting Russia by not doing the thing I said I would do’ and ordinary Russian’s are applauding whoever didn’t get them killed that day ‘we’ll be safe once they go back to persecuting Ukrainians again’. It’s almost as if no one has any idea how to get out of the hole they’ve dug.
My wild, almost certainly wrong, uneducated guess is that Proghozin is betting thats Putin weakness will grow and become more publicly acknowledged and that at some point in the near/mid term an opportunity for succession will arise and wants to position himself as a leading candidate. Even with the "deal" (whatever TF it really is), Prighozin has very publicly and on a global scale, weakened Putins image. Maybe theres more to come and he just wanted to get it started sooner.
The core of the problem is that Putin spent 20 years surrounding himself with sycophants who told him what he wanted to hear.
I think the message that all is not quite right within the military may have got through this time!
Given the poisonings they’ve carried out on foreign soils, don’t hold much hope for Prigozhin in a friendly country.
Wonder what it means for Ukraine on the front line
Hopefully it will have disrupted Russian command and sapped morale further, no idea how we news (let alone propaganda free news) reaches Russian soldiers
Also what does it mean for the rest of Wagner, 20,000+ of Russia's most experienced troops leaderless & just kicking around the rear? Russian MOD will want all the troops it can get, but will they be trusted or as effective without their boss?
the explosion in Rostov might have been "a too close a call" for Prigozhin. Perhaps it came with the message more of the same if you don't back down and that was the spilling of "Russian Blood" Prigozhin wanted to avoid.
my understanding is the Wagner troops will be removed from the front line and sent to various African countries
It's been said elsewhere there is a big difference between Wagner's experienced mercenaries and the people released from prison to essentially act as cannon fodder. I guess the question Russia will be asking is 'how much can you ever trust mercenaries?' and as above in the meantime their armies in Ukraine have lost some of their most effective troops.
Wagner are being temporarily redeployed in Belarus, or at least a large chunk of them. Perhaps to be available to put down an imminent uprising there, in return for Prig becoming the de facto president of a satellite state? Or to make sure that Ukraine has to deploy troops above Kyiv rather than in the east? Can't imagine he would be killed before his loyal troops have been dispersed to all corners of Africa.
And just how does Putin trust Prigozhin going forward? 🤷♂️
Looking back it's so confusing and definitely a added head ache for NATO Ukraine.
Ukraine will definitely have to move some equipment as Wagner simply don't care for life.
Only positive is Ukraine are pretty certain Belarus never got the nukes and the USA will know for sure I assume.
Putin must now on be on borrowed time as it's been publicity shown he is not the all mighy even with state media the whole Russia now knows the war is destroying Russia. It won't be a people's revolution as I don't think they are motivated anywhere near enough.
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No-one can trust anyone. Just like the Stalin era.
Prigozhin"s loyal soldiers and their commanders now know that he cannot be trusted. I can't imagine that's good for his long term prospects.
If this was a movie it would be some elaborate triple bluff where in fact prig and putin were working behind the scenes on a bigger plan.
I could never see how the coup was expected to work, but was pretty gobsmacked at how easy he seemed to roll into places. shows what might happen if ukr can get past the front lines.
morale must be shaky on the Russian lines and I am surprised we didn't hear more about units packing up and heading out. which is why I'm thinking it might have been an elaborate bluff all along.
anyways I have no idea what's really going on !
morale must be shaky on the Russian lines and I am surprised we didn’t hear more about units packing up and heading out.
Russia employs blocking units behind the front line soldiers. Anyone trying to retreat or defect gets shot.
Russia employs blocking units behind the front line soldiers. Anyone trying to retreat or defect gets shot.
Who blocks the blockers?
I have absolutely no clue about what went on yesterday, just hope it was just complete chaos and not some cunning plan to deploy some of their best troops.
Prigozhin”s loyal soldiers and their commanders now know that he cannot be trusted.
Indeed, he's pissed a lot of his own men and allies off. Neither Prigozhin or Putin come out of this well. As long as this is to Ukraine's advantage and hastens the end of the war it's hard to GAS. Russia will be a basket case forever and a day. I can't see any way it will ever be a stable, prosperous nation on good terms with its neighbours.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672900013175758851?t=aHPrjGYbY4d5KLQ2AUzKUQ&s=19
which is why I’m thinking it might have been an elaborate bluff all along
If the last 18 months has taught us anything, is that none of it is ever a bluff
As blokeuptheroads post and tweet show, Pandora's box of scores to settle and personal gains to be made was opened yesterday.
From an individual, through to these private armies, through to countries under Russian control - words and knives are being sharpened...
Maybe, but the only logical reason I can think of for this on reflection, its that it's all theatre or perhaps a combination of theatrics and the Wagner head securing an official position in the Russian government, with the aim of lulling Ukraine into taking some risks and overstretching when they see this percieved weakness/disorder in the russian machine.
I mean, it might gave been a genuine coup/power play by Wagner against Putin, but if that was the case it's played out very strangley and illogically - and we can be sure to expect some freestyle jumping out of windows shortly, as I can't see Putin taking the humilliation very well... people have been dissapeared for a lot less under the Putin regime?
Maybe, but the only logical reason I can think of for this
Russia does not operate on logic, it operates on brute power and fear.
At the start of the month, the Ministry of Defense announced that private military contractors (i.e. Wagner soldiers) would have to join the Russian army. This would have been a huge blow to Wagner so the mutiny seems to have been been an attempt to have the senior military leadership ousted. Prigozhin seems to be a bit of a nutcase so it's quite likely that he didn't really think much about what his endgame would have been once shooting started.
With my 'expert in motivational factors behind Russian dictator/warlord actions' hat on
It looks like prigohrzin expected all the hardcore Russian bloggers/nationalists to back him in his play because they've also spent the last year demanding the removal of shoygu, and bizarrely prigohrzin thought putin would immediately agree to this, when he was called a backstabber & a traitor and Russian pilots started attacking he was surprised!
He was motivated by fear of losing control of his forces to the MOD
Meanwhile Putin fed only good news by his inner circle was caught off guard to see one of his own armies turn against him, not only that, but they rolled over the border and captured a city and a district military headquarters whilst stopping for coffee on the way, his own military powerless to stop it & seemingly unable to stop them heading on to Moscow
This wasn't some elaborate theatre or distraction
It was the consequences of depending on corrupt warlords & convicts to run your military
^as a burnt out cooperate IT bod, I can relate, hahah!
Surely they could have a had a pre-meeting to discuss the actual meeting (all on Zoom naturally)