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Well FlightRadar has Denis Manturov's private jet landing in Dalaman mid day.
There's an awful lot of nuclear weapons in Russia. Unstable and weakened Russia increases the risk of use - NATO will be standing a very long way back so as not provoke
This has to be a golden opportunity for Ukraine. Rostov, the logistics and command centre for the entire Russian effort is now out of action. Ammunition dumps, command centres, road and rail infrastructure have all been targeted…….. it’s now surely 🤷♂️
The Wagner guy is propbably more nuts than Putin, but my armchair opinion is that as long as they are fighting each other, the better for us for many reasons, not least the ukraine invasion will lose (further?) traction as resources are diverted to in-fighting.
Whether Putin or Wagner come out on top is anyones guess, but the longer they have a spat, the weaker whoever comes out on top will be.
So, i guess the question needs to be:
What do we know about this guy, then?
Have you not been following this special military operation?
So what do Ukraine do? It's a mad situation, things that might seem mad normally could make sense. A big push now could polarise uncertain Russians, it's one thing to have your army fighting amongst itself when you have a reasoanbly stable line, but it changes things a lot if you have a collapse. And could be in either direction. Could be an opportunity never to be repeated, could be a risk, could be a wasted effort in the face of a bigger change... Nervy stuff.
Mostly I'm wondering if any of this was known in advance- Disengaging and mobilising if you're near an active frontline isn't an easy thing to do, but if you can make a few calls, say "you think things are crazy now? Hold my pint for a few days, I'll show you crazy"...
matt_outandabout
Full MemberWhere do you flee if you’re a wanted Russian war criminal or target of reprisals? Asking for a friend.
Traditionally, you cut a deal. It sucks, to be doing that with these people but sometimes you just have to give them an out. Coopoeration in return for immunity and a nice safe peaceful retirement in luxury with some of their swiss bank accounts untouched. Like, if we could trade the whole war in Ukraine for offering Putin an island somewhere...
Looks like a deal has been struck - reports Wagner has instructed troops to return ro bases. 🤷♂️
So what do Ukraine do?
I guess they are privvy to much more information than we civilians in the UK are, so its impossile to suggest with limited visibility.
At a guess, they will carry on as normal, a slow push back when it's reasonably safe to do so, and a harder push if it's obvious they can easily gain ground.
he's a dead man (Yevgeny Prigozhin).
From the indie just now:
BREAKING: Wagner boss agrees to halt movement of troops towards Moscow, Belarus claims
The Wagner group has agreed to stop the movement of troops towards Moscow, Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko claims.
He claims an agreement has been reached that would “guarantee the safety of Wagner fighters” is on the table.
Neither the Wagner Group nor the Kremlin has commented on the claims.
I thought the Bellarusian PM was high tailing it out of dodge? Who the hell knows whats going on, fog of war and all that.
And just like that, it's all over. So weird!!
Hmm.
It looks like Prigozhin has stopped his troops. Curiouser and curiouser. surely he got something significant in return? Or is he going to have a rest then carry on? Without something cast iron which its hard to see how he could have then as above surely dead man walking
And just like that, it’s all over. So weird!!
Just a nice Saturday drive through the countryside - now back home for tea!!
Someone is getting put up against the wall for this Putin won't let it drop.
I'm bored now.
Imagine an all day football match where you want both sides to lose.
Putin may have agreed an early retirement maybe!?
Keep your nice villas but sod off now please?
Prigozhin must have done a deal, I'm guessing at the minimum he gets to keep Wagner PMC, ans prob more likely he's the new Minister for Defense and Shogyu is out
What next? Some executed Generals? Putin 'I've been mislead, Prigozhin please take over' might be a win win.
Cup of radioactive tea for Mr Prigozhin.
It looks like prigohrzin won!
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672665481055010816?t=W3C-_W0bJP4DPmm_baWbXA&s=19
And Russia lost a few planes & helicopters!
The real loser here will Ukraine as this might mean a huge ramp up.
There’s a bit ‘might’ there. Regardless Putin looks weaker after this, and as above I suspect a load of Wagner’s proper troops would rather be in Africa than being on the receiving end of Ukrainian artillery.
Theory going about that this was to stop an army coup against Putin…
The real loser here will Ukraine as this might mean a huge ramp up
With what?
my head hurts, what is going on?!
putin triple bluffing?
When I see proof of Wagner forces all stood down I will believe it. How can Vlad come back from this? loosing his s$$t on state media one minute then allegedly cap in hand having a admin change in the Defence office.
Progo is to be fair one tablet away from being off his meds mental but is he really that puddled to try his luck against the window opening tea serving despot Putin.. or if this has all ended with a back hander, was this just another big ploy to get Ukraine forces to have a big push thinking it was an opportunity ?
I definitely need to get myself a mercenary army.
Seems like a handy thing to have.
🤷♂️
I’m not sure anyone is playing 3D chess here..more blind man’s bluff.
Seems like a handy thing to have.
Get yer name down - a big one may be looking for a new leader!
There’s a bit ‘might’ there.
Isn't this the point of having a thread so we can guess, speculate and hope for the best and not the worst. So yes I guess. What's your expertise?
Well, from that link above:
These Negotiations are also reported to have included a “Stipulation” that the Majority of Wagner PMC Forces will be Redeployed out of Russia and Ukraine to Africa.
I don't see how Russia can continue the warSpecial 3 Day Military Operation without Wagner.
If he knows they are about to play silly buggers with the power plant pulling Wagner out might be his primary abjective.
Putin has been bettered by a hotdog salesman.
None of that makes any sense. He's basically had to bend the knee to some merc general, had half his army passively participate in a coup, and now it's supposed to be business as usual with a few different personnel at the top?
Wild speculation: what's Putin's current state of health? The only way I see no radioactive tea involved is if Putin is on his way out, and a transfer of power has been negotiated as part of the deal.
Putin gets to blame the military failures on Shogu and Gerasimov? Let’s face it, the Russian population have been lied to constantly for 20 years, this is just some more shit on top of all the rest.
Point been made on SoMe that (aside from the fact that no-one really knows WTF is going on) this could just be a breathing space while the rest of Wagner’s column catches up, and then it’ll be back on after some ‘provocation’ or other.
I don’t see how the status quo is sustainable either - presumably Putin isn’t going to want to tolerate someone who is a threat to his authority and Prigozhin isn’t going to want to be looking over his shoulder all the time?
Thats how I see it. this is not a stable situation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142
Russian state media have just reported that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave for Belarus.
The reports say charges against him and his Wagner forces will be dropped by Russian authorities to avoid "bloodshed".
What an odd 24 hours
So will Wagner remain "a thing"?
Russian state media have just reported that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave for Belarus.
On the one hand it would stretch Ukraine thinly if they started on another front.
On the other I don't think Lukashenko is stupid enough to do it twice knowing that a 2nd time would likely involve missiles flying both ways.