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- Luka just showing loyalty, I'm not b sure there's much opposition left in Belarus
Prigohrzin wants to keep hold of the army he built, Shoigu wants it under the control of the Mod, he's said he'll go back to the front once he's got what he wants
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672468948141391874?t=FP4ccaiRZs1NeokseH1jpg&s=19
https://twitter.com/ArtfulTakedown/status/1672467473604419585?t=yPbhfXLGDiG021Xk0Uam7g&s=19
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1672468527205298176?t=CUwgwk_Az3KR4QzeegJZvA&s=19
ISW assessment for 23rd June https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023
This gives a good background to whatever's going on, although it isn't up to the minute
Prigozhin taking the Rostov on Don HQ will effectively cut the Southern Military District off from Moscow, which gives Ukraine opportunities to exploit
I dont really see how it could be acceptable for Prighozin to get what he wants and everything returns to normal. Either the political dynamics are radically/publicly shifted or Prighozin has a very very bad day.
From the link earlier ^^ "Prigozhin even plays the nuclear card, initially saying that it would be counterproductive to use it now and that “the button should have been pressed earlier … even though it would have been the act of a ****ed-up psychopath”. Later in the interview he suggests that Russians would be capable of using a nuclear weapon on their own territory. This comes with the comforting caveat that he’s unsure how well nuclear weapons would work if they are as badly maintained as the rest of Russia’s weaponry." https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/09/russian-armed-forces-infighting-yevgeny-prigozhin
Which is a relief as the five nations with nuclear weapons had a chat in Cairo less than a fortnight ago and whatever was discussed should hold
Beyond that, sit back and watch...
Putin doesn’t want a civil war but can he rely on his army not to side with Wagner?
Either Prigohrzin has a nice cup of polonium or Shoigu end up meeting Prigohrzins sledge hammer
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672476452292263936?t=h6Y1nIIrvoms30W5u74L_A&s=19
Putin doesn’t want a civil war but can he rely on his army not to side with Wagner?
Either Prigohrzin has a nice cup of polonium or Shoigu end up meeting Prigohrzins sledge hammer
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672476452292263936?t=h6Y1nIIrvoms30W5u74L_A&s=19
Putin making a statement shortly
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672479359846711302?t=5fJvPYjgNMKKSGmv5kjlzQ&s=19
<p style="text-align: left;">and this is why ukraine hasn't targeted and killed prighrozin.</p>
I had thought this was on the cards but never believed it would happen. he must have backing from other elements either in russia or even ukr / nato to think he has a chance. otherwise he has gone complete fruit loop.
when I read prig claiming a missle attack on wager my immediate assumption was russia had finally tried to take him out.
he's got no where to go now if this is all true.
this should cause a major distraction to help the counter offensive. it seeks to big to be an elaborate bit of propaganda. things have been building up for some time
this will make for a fantastic movie someday. just so tragic it will be based on real suffering
If most of the army is away in Ukraine, and whatever is left is demoralised maybe Wagner can force change. If you were rotated out in a decimated army unit. Having seen your friends blown up, ill equipped for winter with no food or bedding then you would be angry.
Looking for someone to blame or get revenge on.
Dont think it will come to much and be negotiated out eventually but if it pulls men and machines off the front lines its going to be alot easier for the Ukraine army.
Dont think it will come to much and be negotiated out eventually but if it pulls men and machines off the front lines its going to be alot easier for the Ukraine army.
This. I can't see how you can move only against certain Russian ministers without going full-on coup and I'm not sure that is his intention
Time for the Belarusian's to make a move?
Thier army refused to invade Ukraine - I wonder as things kick off in Russia and with Lukashenko's family (or even himself) out e country....
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1672420961138757639?t=_N8udbhDMG6NwMH24ZAEFQ&s=19
Where do you flee if you're a wanted Russian war criminal or target of reprisals? Asking for a friend.
well, i didn't have Wagner on my bingo card as "part of the counter-offensive"
You'd think no way back from this for prigohrzin, but we don't really know if RU MOD is in control of its own army or if soldiers more inclined to back prigohrzin
Putin may have to cut a deal
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672488251288944640?t=WVqwyQ7L1RTcLa5UJuCpVw&s=19
When your roided up Staffy goes rogue and turns on you and the other dogs.
Bet ole Vlad didn't factor this ****ery into his warplan.
What a world.
Prigohrzin realised that either he goes for broke or he's dead.
It's existential for him now.
Already hearing more reports of conscripted regular forces refusing to engage Wagner columns. With all the military's best units in Ukraine the end result here is not certain.
Russia's own propaganda working against it, Wagner have been built up in the public mind as hyper-Russian super soldiers and now those super soldiers are in revolt and calling out Putin's BS, even if the fighting is shortlived the effect on civilian morale must be huge.
<p style="text-align: center;">this is where it gets really dangerous. I can't see putin going quietly.</p>
why do I keep getting this formatting crap?
Just got up.
WTAF?
Wagner now has 2 regional capitals!
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672492961408376837?t=OCutOOuvTwJDk6ZZruFLAQ&s=19
this is where it gets really dangerous. I can’t see putin going quietly
Indeed.
But his army is now the third best army in Russia, and even with huge overwhelming numbers, at the very least there's going to be a significant battle inside Russia.
I would have thought from the front lines in Ukraine, to every military base and police station, brains are busy making decisions as to which side to take and how to come out alive from the next few days.
Even after Wagner is destroyed, there will be reprisals. Night of the long knives?
<p style="text-align: left;">Even after Wagner is destroyed</p>
I'm starting to think prigohrzin might pull this off, he can rely on his troops in a way the RU government can't
And hrs not aiming for putin, he wants Shoigu
Just a thought, do we need a separate Russian coup thread, to avoid developments on the ground in Ukraine getting lost in the noise?
Russian troops laying down their arms and refusing to fight Wagner! Prigo might just pull this off. Putin must be apoplectic! Although as said earlier if he does pull it off, other than temporary confusion that the Ukrainians might take advantage of, the world isn't going to be any safer. Remove psychopathic dictator, insert psychopathic dictator.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672499383344963584?s=20
I wonder whose side Putin is on? Is this Prigozhin against Putin + generals, or Prigozhin + Putin against the generals? If we take Prigozhin's comments at face value, he doesn't want to be the big boss [yet], he wants to be in control of the military. Putin probably is sick of his generals as well, though of course he would be playing with fire by elevating Prigozhin in this way. Maybe Putin is sitting on the fence, liking that his military commanders are being taken down a peg and hoping for the best.
Putin not happy
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672502003153399808?t=yExh4SMMS8atBkAklZFw-g&s=19
I wonder whose side Putin is on?
Not Prigozhin's it seems....
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672503141453930496?s=20
Yep, chaos this morning.you hope it isn't some sort of ruse to get Ukraine to up it's attacks quickly butfir that to be true you would need to level of cleverness that hasn't been seen so far. Up until now it all seems to be based on terror and brute force
The other good point made on Twitter is that there is now an opportunity for the Chechens to team up with Wagner. There is a lot of unfinished business there from the 90s.
Putin has a loyalty problem
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672506754511273986?t=hWZqGCnDQBIPJH3DgTyZoQ&s=19
Really odd. I am putting 2+2 together and probably getting 5 but why did the Ukrainians "pause' the counter offensive a couple of days ago. They said to review strategy. Was this on the cards? Did prigozhin not offer the sell out Russian positions around Bakmut before? Has there been some sort of discussion with him? If he does take out Putin has he offered to withdraw from Ukraine. No need to fight and lose men if Russia may be about to collapse?
Many many roadblocks being set up on the way into Moscow.
Whole fleets of dumper trucks and other heavy vehicles being placed on the main road.
Many many roadblocks being set up on the way into Moscow.
Whole fleets of dumper trucks and other heavy vehicles being placed on the main road.
Can't see there being much military hardware in Moscow to defend with.
Unless this is a massive bluff by Russia, if Ukraine can’t take significant advantage of this situation then you have to feel they are never going to be able to expel the Russians using military force.
The other good point made on Twitter is that there is now an opportunity for the Chechens to team up with Wagner. There is a lot of unfinished business there from the 90s.
The Kadyrov family were appointed head of Chechnya in 2000 by President Putin and Akhmad became President in 2003, again appointed by Putin. The problems in Chechnya by that point were Islamist Chechen rebels who assassinated Akhmad in 2004
Ramzan was appointed PM and President in 2007 and has been fairly pro-Moscow for 20+ years
The Chechen/Wagner relationship hit a low three weeks ago https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/stop-yelling-top-chechen-fighter-scolds-russias-wagner-mercenary-chief-2023-06-01/
Many will be waiting to see which way the wind blows
Can’t see there being much military hardware in Moscow to defend with.
That is the crux of this. All Russia's best troops and equipment are in Ukraine. Any that have rotated out of theatre back to Russia will be exhausted, demoralised and probably not particularly well enamoured towards Putin, Shoigu etc. Wagner have been built up in the Russian popular imagination as some sort of unbeatable super warriors. I think the loyalty of Russia's military to Putin and their willingness and capability to take on a determined Wagner push is highly doubtful.
That escalated quickly, I only went to bed at 2.30am!
This is an organised and pre-planned coup, done with the blessing of elements of the Russian army. Yesterday's attack on Wagner feels either like a false flag to justify his incursion towards Rostov, or an assassination attempt because Putin and the generals had got wind of the plan.
If the reports of regular army units stepping aside or even joining him are true, it's probably over for Putin. He's on telly whining about betrayal and likening the situation to 1917, not realising that he's the czar in that scenario.
Even if Prig only wants the generals replaced, Putin agreement to that is such a show of weakness that it means his leadership is over. He can choose - either try to crush the coup with the forces he still controls, or effectively hand over the reins and try to remain as an impotent figurehead. Or just run for it.
Either way, Prigozhin has declared that the premise for the invasion of Ukraine was false, so it 'sounds' like he is providing an off-ramp for one or both of them. Keep everything crossed that this is the case.
EDIT: Wagner now feels secure enough in its position to not have to feign loyalty to Putin any more:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672510543247155202
All Russia’s best troops and equipment are in Ukraine
I'm not sure that will be the case.
Plus, this is a column of foot soldiers, not a full on invasion force. They're relying on negotiation and parley as much as force.
What's the Russian version of Ride of the Valkyries?
Plus, this is a column of foot soldiers, not a full on invasion force.
Perhaps, but I can see a bit of a snowball effect as more regular forces they contact lay down their arms, or even join them. If they are attacked, it will be bloody. They've already downed a couple of helicopters that attacked them. Plus, they've already taken control of Russia's third city without it seems, any shots being fired.
Wowzers! 😳
I’ve been wondering for a few days now where Prigozhin was going to go. It seemed like he was backing himself / being backed into a corner. Now we know!
Hard to see him doing this without the support - tacit or otherwise - of some of the army guys. Lots of generals thrown under numerous busses by Shoigu and Gerasimov over the last year or so.
I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if the Ukrainians at the very least had some awareness that this might / was going to happen.
Prigozhin may be a ****, but he’s not a megalomaniac like Putin. If he gets in I’d expect him to negotiate a favourable withdrawal from Ukraine. He’s only really interested in money. I’m aware this could age badly 😃
Grumpy mtber not happy with wagners
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672513655122829314?t=PfxZI7yRuI0kaov7I06ncg&s=19
I wonder how the Russian population are handling this, if all you have is 1 way propoganda, must be quite the shock to see a huge. 180 like this
Odd that a mercenary army changed sides. I wonder how that could happen.
As for this, oh the ironing
Putin also told viewers: “Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting.”