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Hopefully all the best Russian troops have been sucked into the Bhakmut area, or defending the border from incursions, leaving the other front lines manned by conscripts and the mobilised. Chances of a Russian collapse are what? Maybe 50/50 🤷♂️
leaving the other front lines manned by conscripts and the mobilised.
Quite possibly. I can't help but feel sorry for them. They'll get absolutely mullered. They didn't ask to be there. Victims of Putin's madness too.
Quite possibly. I can’t help but feel sorry for them. They’ll get absolutely mullered. They didn’t ask to be there. Victims of Putin’s madness too.
Yep same. Most are from the far east and rural areas so torn away from small towns and villages.
Hopefully they’ll run away and save themselves, or surrender.
And Russia claims to be 'denazifying' Ukraine?
Russian media presenter talks of the final solution to the Ukrainian problem and calls for the destruction of every living thing in Kharkiv. Is it any surprise Russian soldiers commit atrocities when they are bombarded with sentiments like this from their own media? It feels to me that this Russian regime is morphing in the Nazi state they claim to despise so much.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1665235585324154883?s=20
If you want to know about Russia, look at what they blame others for - a real mirror.
Edit, nah, derailment probability is too high
That looked like a couple of F16s at the end
Hopefully all the best Russian troops have been sucked into the Bhakmut area, or defending the border from incursions, leaving the other front lines manned by conscripts and the mobilised. Chances of a Russian collapse are what? Maybe 50/50 🤷♂️
I'm not saying it won't happen, but I think it's probably closer to don't know what will happen.
Look at some of the slightly more neutral but not Russian news outlets (Al Jazera, eurasian times, Indian newspapers, just about anywhere non-NATO that isn't China) and they paint the same story of Russian forces as we do of the Ukraine.
e.g. we regularly report that a Ukrainian drone hit munitions dumps, command posts, etc, whilst anti-aircraft defenses took out forty Russian drones and missiles, Russian shelling rateis dropping off due to supply issues, etc. The other sides news is exactly the same, hundreds of drones stopped, Ukrainian military hit at marshaling points, camps, Patriot running out, etc.
I think it's reasonably likely that it's going to be a lot slower, bloodier and with smaller gains than people think. And that suits Russia, because for all the talk of conscripts, Wagner etc, it's still the much bigger army, and in any counter-offensive it's got the advantage of being a well dug in defender.
And like Ukraine is a different army from a decade ago, Russia is visibly different already from the mistakes it was making a year ago.
Russia is visibly different already from the mistakes it was making a year ago.
Taking 9 months to capture a town (Bhakmut) of little significance. Loosing 100,000 casualties doing so. Human wave assaults with single use infantry. A complete bit of a mess at Vulhedar, trying the same tactic over and over, loosing dozens of tanks and AFV’s in the process. Failing to break Ukraine with its missile assaults on civilian infrastructure over winter. Continuing to fail with its nightly attacks on Kiev. Having to put T54/55 tanks into service.
I’m not sure what lessons Russia has learned? 🤷♂️
Russias only hope is that Trump becomes president.
Having to put T54/55 tanks into service.
Those Cheiftains we supplied, they first entered service in 1967, same year as the Triumph TR5 was launched.
By the time the T-55 ended production in 1981 the VW Passat was already on its 2nd generation.
There's obviously the question of what's had what upgraded. But again, the Russians are reportedly busy fitting whatever upgraded optics/systems they can to their tanks.
And it's not like western hardware is some sort of gold standard. It's not that long ago that our tanks ground to a halt in Oman because the engines clogged with sand, rifles jammed, soldiers boots melted, and helicopters had their blades service life cut to 27 hours. We were so badly organised in Iraq we couldn't supply body armour to troops. We figured out in Afganistan that Land rovers were rubbish for anything outside the base, with fatal consequences.
Propaganda isn't something only the enemy does.
Chieftains?
Haha, you're entirely right, that's what my brain does when the work canteen serves the smallest (yet saltieast) Cesar salad for lunch and I don't eat again untill 9pm 😂
(The rest is true though, it's not like our kit has a great reputation)
Chieftains 🤦🏻♂️
Another thread on that https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665907948986458113?t=spj5YHMeGzkXQ3lQHxmn4g&s=19
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1665922070125977601?t=kNQYGJns5xKa85yPFMs7Rg&s=19
So, woke up as usual and checked in on this thread to this news about the dam...
Next stop Google Earth....
Edit: thats a very big area of water upstream before the next dam.... Its also likely to affect the Zaporizhzhya NPP and cooling water situation.
The plant has its own reservoir for cooling and is allegedly "offline" so doesnt need much to keep safe.
Assuming thats true there will be some issues mid ti long term presumably?
The rest is true though, it’s not like our kit has a great reputation
Wrong again
The rest is true though, it’s not like our kit has a great reputation
Yep, very wrong. And also misses the main reason why Challenger was promised, which was it broke the taboo on supply of tanks to Ukraine, with Abrams, Leopard and AMX10 all following. See also longer range missiles and fighter pilot training. UK Gov't have got this one right which is astonishing given their ability to completely fail at everything else.
Seeing the destruction of the dam this morning is terrible. Size of explosion means it wasnt missiles and must have been explosives placed by Russia.
The Challenger 2 entered service in 1998, and has a stellar reputation.
Size of explosion means it wasnt missiles and must have been explosives placed by Russia.
21 / 22 October 2022
https://tvpworld.com/64077600/russians-have-planted-explosives-inside-the-huge-nova-kakhovka-dam-zelenskyy-says
From the link: It would also wreck the canal system that provides irrigation for much of southern Ukraine, including Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014.
Intentional self harm or Russia being stupid again?
Thanks, wasn't aware it was known Russia had mined the dam. In addition to irrigation this also cuts the drinking water supply to Crimea for the next 10 years, which shows Putin doesnt really care about Crimea and knows he is going to lose this.
It does seem an astonishingly naive act of self harm if he were to really believe those regions want to be Russian. It'll just galvanise support against him.
And it's a war crime. Though he's obviously not fussed about those
Intentional self harm or Russia being stupid again?
Its going to make any Ukrainian attacks in that area very difficult/possibly impossible.
So they might consider the damage caused the lesser of two evils.
Putin will just claim it was ukraine who did it. If commentators are to be believed it has been planned for some time.
Expect to see something even more horrific if the russians have to pull back from that nuclear plant.
Scorched earth
As the Ukrainians do liberate more cities and towns the war-crime count will multiply yet the BRICS countries still parle with Putin. What an astonishingly divided world we live in.
Those Cheiftains we supplied, they first entered service in 1967, same year as the Triumph TR5 was launched.
By the time the T-55 ended production in 1981 the VW Passat was already on its 2nd generation.
I think that the Challenger2/timeline-thing has been addressed
There’s obviously the question of what’s had what upgraded. But again, the Russians are reportedly busy fitting whatever upgraded optics/systems they can to their tanks.
A Challenger 2 recently "won" at NATO's Exercise Iron Sphere, beating a Spanish-crewed Leopard 2 and a US-crewed Abrams M1, which isn't bad for a tank first mass-produced in 1993. It isn't all about the vehicle, the crews are massively important as previous exercise results will show 🙁
The difference is that Russia is fitting steel-sprung bed bases to their already vulnerable AFVs to protect against modern weapons. How demoralising is it for the crew when they know that a Soviet weapon has never caused lethal damage to a Challenger 2 and can see a field of destroyed Soviet armour.
And it’s not like western hardware is some sort of gold standard. It’s not that long ago that our tanks ground to a halt in Oman because the engines clogged with sand
The engines didn't clog with sand, the air filters did and Oman has already got a suitable part in their inventory. How often do we need to fight in a desert? I'll bet that we have upgraded air filters in stock before the next one.
rifles jammed
Germany's already had an overheating problem when H&K G36 rifles were used in Afghanistan but were designed for Europe. That's a lesson that should have been learnt from this... https://www.dw.com/en/heckler-koch-seeks-court-vindication-over-g36-accuracy/a-19298196
I don't know about boots melting recently, can you link to that, but here goes...
soldiers boots melted, and helicopters had their blades service life cut to 27 hours
UK DMS boots weren't liked in the 70s and early 80s, German Paratrooper boots were much better and were bought privately, again a lesson from history (well, 2003)... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2664349.stm
Sand is abrasive and damages stuff, it's no massive surprise that rotor blades wear.
We were so badly organised in Iraq we couldn’t supply body armour to troops. We figured out in Afganistan that Land rovers were rubbish for anything outside the base, with fatal consequences.
Tony Blair going to war in a rush on "that" intelligence dossier. The MRAPs and armour supplied to Ukraine are the results of that lesson
Propaganda isn’t something only the enemy does
Of course not. The difference is that we learn some of the lessons and aren't sending conscripts and 1950s MBTs
Intentional self harm or Russia being stupid again?
Its going to make any Ukrainian attacks in that area very difficult/possibly impossible.
So they might consider the damage caused the lesser of two evils.
A similar scenario was considered a possibility in 2022 when Ukraine advanced south towards Kherson City. The difference is that Russia has accepted that it's going to lose Crimea and is moving resources to its port at Novorossiysk, consequently water supplies in Crimea are less of an issue
One more thing to repair after the war. It’s a desperate act by Russia, flooding its own self proclaimed territory and denying water 🤦🏻♂️🤷♂️
cuts the drinking water supply to Crimea for the next 10 years, which shows Putin doesnt really care about Crimea and knows he is going to lose this.
Everyone is ascribing this to Putin but maybe it's the act of a local commander taking the initiative after a vague order to hold the area, at any cost, 'or else'. Looking out for his own interests and don't give a thought to the impacts anywhere beyond the few square km's that's theirs to protect.
The difference is that Russia has accepted that it’s going to lose Crimea and is moving resources to its port at Novorossiysk, consequently water supplies in Crimea are less of an issue
Conjecture or evidence backed?
Conjecture or evidence backed?
Fifth item... "The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk reported on June 5...(cont)"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5-2023
There are photos of cracks in the Kerch Bridge supports online as well, but I'm less certain about them
At least the Russian-sympathising residents of Crimea now know how their dear leader feels about them. Perhaps they should consider which side of the Kerch Strait they really want to be living on before the bridge gets blown.
Hopefully Russia will be a pariah state throughout my lifetime, assuming we won't be able to drag anyone to the Hague.
The difference is that Russia has accepted that it’s going to lose Crimea and is moving resources to its port at Novorossiysk, consequently water supplies in Crimea are less of an issue
I am not sure that holds true. It might be they considered this the only chance they have of retaining Crimea at all and so worth the risk (after all if it doesnt work then it comes with a free scorched earth consolation prize).
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61833458
The wonderful Steve Rosenberg interviewing Karen Lavrov and the quote ringing in my ears as the waters are rising in the Dnipro area is: we are not ashamed of showing who we are"
UN- out
Olympics - out
International sport - out
UNESCO - out
WTO - out
World Food Programme - out
plus others...
International sport – out
But there will be Russians playing at Wimbledon next month, apparently.
IF Russia is preparing to lose Crimea then it is preparing to pull out of the whole of Ukraine. IF it does that it will destroy whatever it can on the way out.
I think that's a big IF though. More likely I think that destroying the dam/bridge makes it gets more difficult for Ukraine to attack at that point across the Dnipro enabling Russia to move some troops from that area.
I think it's quite likely that they just didn't really think about the consequences.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1666010850514161664
Scorched earth: as the Soviets did in the 2nd world war as the Nazis invaded.
I posted a week ago ..
"False flag by Russia again no doubts, that Power station in Ukraine is on borrowed time I fear"
If they are brazen enough to drop the dam what next .. Clearly no ****s have ever been given on how the world sees Russia now whats stopping them claiming everyone else did it!
The news from Kherson is grim and Blowing the Dam is yet another clear war crime... sadly as far as Russia is concerned we can add it to the pile.
Amongst the unfolding human catastrophe, one diplomatic wrinkle is that China tends to take a very very dim view on messing with Dams, largely because of the vast Three gorges project and the almost unimaginable damage it would do to China's population and industrial base if it was to be attacked or otherwise messed with.
Any attempt by Russia to justify this will effectively be saying that Dams are fair targets in an armed conflict, something that categorically will not fly with China.
If the West plays this well they could use it to drive another wedge between them.
BBC reporting:
It comes as Ukraine's interior ministry claims the southern region of Kherson - where people are being evacuated - is being shelled
So not only dropping the dam with human, material and environmental consequences, shelling the evacuees....
I guess they have previous form on this hitting medical convoys, evacuation corridors and humanitarian relief.
Absolute *ing b*rds. I hope this is a line crossed that triggers overwhelming and decisive action which changes the course of this needless and pointless war.