Forum menu
My money would be on false flag ahead of full Russian mobilisation announcement. Putin has form for this kind of shit. There is no value to Ukraine in attacking Moscow, even in a symbolic way, and certainly not civilian targets, as it potentially weakens support from the West.
a Home Office spokesman says it’s an issue that is ‘too sensitive to say’
Like many things in Russia, their cyber attack ability seems to be built on rumour, gossip, lies and innuendo. I think we've (the west) have been told that the online efforts during the 2016 US election and Brexit revealed Russia to have this amazing ability to launch cyber attacks at who they want, when they want with more or less total impunity, and I'm left wondering that when it matters most - like in an an actual shooting war, the whole thing (like the Russian air force) seems to have gone missing in action. Perhaps it's not aimed at me - my online presence is pretty limited after all, but taken as a whole, and especially after we've been told how effective it's supposed to be, it's all a bit "mleh".
TL:DR I'd be genuinely surprised if it's Russians
There is no value to Ukraine in attacking Moscow, even in a symbolic way
I don't think that's right. You only have to look at the effects that the early retaliatory raids launched at Berlin in 1940, or the Doolittle raids to Tokyo to see the effects on both sides that these sorts of even "propagandistic" raids have. Especially in Russia where information about the war in Ukraine is so very tightly controlled, I imagine that drone attacks in Moscow cause Putin's regime any number of headaches.
Or they could just be wanting to fix Russian AD around Moscow and prevent deployment to Ukraine.
If a load of propeller-driven drones can reach that far, they have either evaded multiple layers of air defence, or that air defence does not exist. If it's not a false flag, do they actually have anything to re-deploy?
I still can't see the value of attacking civilian targets in Moscow. It's the sort of thing that can be used to harden the civilian attitude in support of war, rather than undermining it. IIRC, the Doolittle raids provoked an absolute slaughter within China.
False flag by Russia again no doubts, that Power station in Ukraine is on borrowed time I fear.
If a load of propeller-driven drones can reach that far, they have either evaded multiple layers of air defence, or that air defence does not exist.
Seems like the best evidence? How would they have got there? Are they being launched from inside Russia?
Basing them on what they look like could be flimsy, I'm sure any hobbyist RC plane builder could come up with something that "looked like" that Ukranian drone in a couple of days.
If a load of propeller-driven drones can reach that far, they have either evaded multiple layers of air defence, or that air defence does not exist.
The types of drones that landed in Moscow were launched in Russia, they have a range of 200km max, and probs a lot less, and the Ukraine border is over 450km away, there's no way these are coming that far, as you say, even if they they fly low and have a v. small radar return they'd still get picked up at some point.
If a load of propeller-driven drones can reach that far, they have either evaded multiple layers of air defence, or that air defence does not exist
In the eighties, didn't a German teenager fly a small aircraft from Germany & land in Red Square?
Yep, although even those wee airplanes carry vastly more fuel than the sorts of drones that are turning up in pictures flying over Moscow.
The types of drones that landed in Moscow were launched in Russia, they have a range of 200km max, and probs a lot less, and the Ukraine border is over 450km away, there’s no way these are coming that far, as you say, even if they they fly low and have a v. small radar return they’d still get picked up at some point.
From the multiple phone video clips appearing from Moscow, it looks like there were at least two types of UAV used. One with a canard and prop to the rear like the 'Beaver' mentioned earlier (not sure now it is one of those - but a similar-ish rear prop canard wing design). I haven't been able to find any range or other specs for that. Also a UAV with a more conventional appearance like a scaled down GA light aircraft with the prop at the front. This looks like the Ukrainian UJ-22. The UJ-22 has 2 modes - controlled flight to drop munitions then return - max range 100km and autonomous GPS controlled flight - 800km (one way). These range figures are from the manufacturer's website.
Video clip of canard type drone:
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1663449963295125513?s=20
Video clip of possible UJ-22 type drone:
https://twitter.com/theinformantofc/status/1663425408467861504?s=20
Not buying it
One picture looks like a modern, futuristic sleek airborne uav
The other pictures, a beat up 1980s Cessna 152.
Not buying it
One picture looks like a modern, futuristic sleek airborne uav
An airborne UAV? Is there any other kind? 😁 Whilst the likes of multi-million dollar US Predator and Reaper drones might look 'sleek' and 'futuristic' that's not the case for many of the new crop of low cost drones.
The other pictures, a beat up 1980s Cessna 152.
That's what a lot of military UAVs look like. Many of them are substantially made of cardboard, delivered in kit form and powered by small, noisy, 2 stroke engines. They have a low radar signature and fly too slowly for a lot of modern surface to air missiles to deal with. That is why the older technology of anti aircraft artillery is getting a new lease of life.
strange how all these people happened to be filming & caught sight of the drone
Is it? 20 or 30 noisy, slow flying drones over a city of 12 million people, most of whom presumably have camera smart phones? There are dozens, maybe hundreds of these clips.
autonomous GPS controlled flight – 800km (one way)
Ah, cool, thanks for the info @blokeuptheroad, I didn't know the Ukrainians had access to drone with that sort of range, good to know 👍
Will wait and see some evidence, seems like a UAV with little information about it, which is low flying and slow, and made it's way several hundred miles across Russian airspace before being taken down over Moscow.
I just don't see what gain Ukraine get out of this, they are surviving off aid that's centred around defending Ukraine, not striking Russia, especially Russian civilians, which either means it's a massive fumble by Ukraine, or a false flag by Russia.
Funny see how it's a fumble, they've know used western/nato equipment and it's caused chaos in Moscow, notably going near the upmarket oligarch residences.
Piggorzhin has gone nuts about it and Putin's 'definitely not a war' isn't the 3day SMO he promised
I agree with the above comments, unlikely something sanctioned by those in command, much more likely to be a smaller splinter group acting in what they believe to be there own interests. We'll know if it's a false flag if Russia uses it as a pretext for an escalation, for example a new round of mobilisation etc
Not drone related in particular, but I consider that @sentdefender person to be a very unreliable source!
Lots of rumour, absurd sensationalism and speculation mixed in with the legit stuff, it seems to me
Hopefully not a false flag to justify openly attacking Ukrainian population centres in Kiev.
they are already doing that. the next escalation from Russia will be far worse
I'm not convinced Russia has the capacity to escalate, reports seem to suggest that Russia is using munitions as quickly as it can make them. Beyond nuclear there's not much left on the shelf. And if Putin was prepared to go that far I think he would have already. You can't bluff and then not follow it through when it's called.
Not drone related in particular, but I consider that @sentdefender person to be a very unreliable source!
Presuming osintdefender, if so I agree not great.
Hopefully not a false flag to justify openly attacking Ukrainian population centres in Kiev.
where have you been since Feb 2022???? 🤦🏻♂️
It's like WWII with the old V1 buzz bombs.
My mum used to tell me about them - she was quite young at the time and did not really know where Germany was, and since no one told her, assumed it was somewhere near Romford. Don't ask me why Romford, and I can't ask her now.
Harrowing piece on the BBC news about the abduction of Ukraine children. I knew it was happening but the looks on those toddlers faces when meeting their new "familys."
Sick regime .
oldnpastit
Full Member
It’s like WWII with the old V1 buzz bombs.My mum used to tell me about them – she was quite young at the time and did not really know where Germany was, and since no one told her, assumed it was somewhere near Romford. Don’t ask me why Romford, and I can’t ask her now.
Same here, except I think my mum was old enough to know where Germany was. She was billeted out* during a lot of WWII, but the home of close relatives was bombed (nobody hurt). A drop-end Chesterfield that I now possess was allegedly salvaged fom the wreckage. This was in Addiscombe S. London, so within V1 and V2 range. Apparently with the V1 you were OK so long as you culd hear them, when the motor cut out you needed to take cover as they stalled and could land anywhere nearby. You didn't hear the V1s until they hit.
*not always a happy experience for her
You didn't hear the V2s till they hit.
Doh mistyped that
That Ukrainian ‘ABBA’ video is brilliant!
This is an interesting piece about how Ukraine is dealing with Russian missiles, and just how inefficient Russia’s air attack system is:
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/05/31/defence-against-the-devil-en
Another incursion into the Belgorod region, and Russia is firing Grad rockets on its own citizens 🤷♂️🤦🏻♂️
Is anyone else scared... or is it just me?
.
Is anyone else scared… or is it just me?
War anxiety exists and is common https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/war-anxiety-how-to-cope-202205232748
There's usually only one aggressor
Ukrainian farmers: less moaning, more doing
Is anyone else scared… or is it just me?
Considering recent world events, it would be very weird if you weren't having the odd moment of anxiety! I'm not yet 100% convinced that these current shenanigans will lead to any significant escalation though.
Two interesting articles, IMHO, for those like me with a not-too-technical interest in aircraft
A link about Russia's failure of air supremacy in its invasion of Ukraine and lessons for the west https://www.aerosociety.com/news/stalemate-in-the-skies/
Another on the subject of future capabilities and the lessons of air power resilience and agility learnt from Russia's invasion of Ukraine https://www.aerosociety.com/news/highlights-from-the-raes-future-combat-air-space-capabilities-summit/
I'm slowly working my way through that second link Timba. The AI section contains a scary section as regards AI making the kinds of decisions that the world is worrying about right now.
Not a discussion for this thread obviously but worth reading.
As well as the European summit in Moldova, it seems Poland are supplying weapons for Moldovan police and border guards to use. There's also been a fair bit of US, UK and French military spy planes and flights going on.
It may just be security for the summit, but you do have to wonder if Transnistria may soon not be autonomous, and if Moldova are about to get some more support...
Re. Putin visiting South Africa. How many countries en route? Could his plane be grounded due to a reported 'bomb threat', a la Belarus?
Meanwhile our favourite Ogre Prigozhin has gone on the record saying that Russian MOD operatives deliberately mined the routes that the Wagnerites would be taking upon withdrawal from Bakhmut. God only knows what is really going on there, but if it all kicks off internally there’s going to be scores to be settled..
Regardless looks like the shaping phase of the counteroffensive is drawing to a conclusion. Fingers crossed..