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Wash rinse repeat. Keep the Russians unstable, get them to commit more and more forces to protect their borders.
Russia really needs to get a grip on its smoking problem.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1661285645132746754
Seems to be some kind of weird 'smokescreen' exercise. Hint: I can still tell where the bridge is, and I'm guessing modern Ukrainian munitions can tell as well.
Challenger 2 vs Dragons teeth & tank trenches…..
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1661627061872541696
True or false?
True, from what I have read. Bakhmut for Prigozhin was only ever about scoring a victory to further his own standing among the Oligarchs, with a future eye on the Presidency when Putin is removed. Now thats done, what I have read is he wants to transfer all his remaining experienced "fighters" to Africa, particularly Sudan, where he makes his money. The rumour is the remaining convicts will be transferred into the Russian MOD to continue to be Cannon Fodder.
I suspect Prigozhin will be quite happy to see Russia fail as this will help his ambitions.
True, he knows they don't have total control, he knows they are going to lose it, he knows that whoever is defending it won't be allowed to retreat, he knows that whoever stays dies, he knows the greater the destruction of the Russian army the easier his coupe will be
From that BBC article...
BBC Verify has geolocated the video to an area near a pharmacy in the east of Bakhmut.
What a shame the UA couldn't have had access to this information and bombed the shit out of the location!
I think he is deliberately not being targeted
We won't know the truth of this until well after the dust has settled but his running beef with Russian command and the way he's made himself a hero to patriotic Russians and making himself hard to dispose of in he meantime means he's a uniquely knotty headache for the Kremlin.
He's also clearly positioning himself for who/whatever comes after Putin.
Probably suits Putin to have his senior command a little divided.
So yesterday Russia said they repelled a drone bot attack in the Bosphorus straight
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1661374777162973186
but turns out they maybe didnt
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1661724151520849920
why would you use those drones to attack in broad daylight like that? surely it would be better to use at night to make defending against them much harder. They move alot slower than I was expecting in those vids.
I think they're remote controlled so darkness could be a bigger disadvantage for the "pilot" than it is for the target, especially once you add in distance. Likewise speed's got to be a plus and minus thing, getting in fast obviously a positive but that last wee turn to place it right at the stern looked very intentional and stuff like that'd be much harder with more speed. Looks a lot like they're trying to place it alongside rather than just simply ramming.
I read something this morning that suggested that the video of the boat being destroyed was old video from a joint exercise off Africa
I'll see if I can find a link
Probably suits Putin to have his senior command a little divided.
Very much so
Well, I suppose someone was bound to compile a list
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/2j08GFvz/IMG-20230526-204509.jp g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/2j08GFvz/IMG-20230526-204509.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
(No, ive not checked them all)
(No, ive not checked them all)
Me neither, but there are a couple more; in March "President Vladimir Putin has said Russia would be "forced to react" if the UK sent shells made with depleted uranium to Ukraine.
He accused the West of deploying weapons with a "nuclear component".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65032671 (The clue is in the name, "depleted", and they are packaged with Challenger 2)
From yesterday, "Ukraine says Russia plans to simulate accident at nuclear power plant"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-plans-simulate-accident-nuclear-power-plant-2023-05-26/
Aggregating various Twitter feeds it would seem that the Ivan Khurs was at least damaged
The simplest reports have been attributed to Igor Girkin aka Strelkov on Telegram and another that a fully seaworthy Ivan Khurs couldn't have sailed into port within the timeframe stated in Russian media
Here is the Drive.com story... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/drone-boat-attack-on-russian-ship-in-black-sea-story-keeps-getting-weirder
I’ve seen a photo of the damage on one of the YouTube channels, sorry can’t remember which one
I’ve seen a photo of the damage on one of the YouTube channels, sorry can’t remember which one
A quick look just now shows a huge number of false claims and old or photoshopped images. There's three ships of the same design apparently, two based in Sevastopol.
BBC News - Oleksiy Danilov interview: Ukraine counter-offensive 'ready to begin'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65725004
This is being telegraphed so loudly right now! It's like they have to do it, or the guilt would be too much
Passport gates at UK airports not working, a Home Office spokesman says it's an issue that is 'too sensitive to say'
Am I putting 2 and 2 together to make 5 by posting it in this thread?
It’s like they have to do it, or the guilt would be too much
I'm pretty sure they will do it at the best time for them.
If it wasn’t a cyberattack it’d piss poor IT or staff mismanagement. It’s evident the whole thing is a shower of shit regardless.
This is being telegraphed so loudly right now! It’s like they have to do it, or the guilt would be too much
Mind games time.
Spend the next two weeks faking moves east and west, all times of the day and night. You'll soon have a stressed, sleep deprived and frightened opposition.
I’m pretty sure they will do it at the best time for them.
And so far Ukraine have shown they are frankly rather good at choosing when, where, who and how.
Am I putting 2 and 2 together to make 5 by posting it in this thread?
Nope. That seems a fair bet.
Russia hasn't started to act 'seriously' yet in Ukraine, Russian ambassador says
When Kuenssberg mentions war crimes, including a maternity hospital being attacked in Mariupol and asks why Kelin won’t be honest about what has happened, he replies that the war has been going on since 2014 in the Donbas with crimes being committed on the Ukrainian army side.He adds: “We want peace. We want no threat from Ukraine to Russia, this is one thing, and second that Russians in Ukraine will be treated like all other nations in the world. Like a French person in Ukraine.
“It is a big idealistic mistake to think that Ukraine will prevail. Russia is 16 times bigger than Ukraine. We have enormous resources and we haven’t just started yet to act very seriously.
“We are just defending the lands which are under control and assisting Russian people over there. We are rebuilding the Donbas.
“It depends on the escalation of war that is taking place. Sooner or later this escalation might have a new dimension that we do not need and we do not want. We can make peace tomorrow, if Ukrainian side will be prepared to negotiate but there is no preconditions for that.
“The German defence minister said if we stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, it will stop the day after tomorrow,” he said and laughs, saying he is right.
“If supplies of weapons will be stopped, it will be stopped the day after tomorrow. Please, stop it.”
words fail me 🤷♂️
I watched that interview, he should be treated in the same way as other deluded conspiracy theorists.
A while ago we briefly discussed the BBMF after the Russian Victory Day parade. I was at the Bidford Wings and Wheels show today and there was a flypast by a Hurricane and Spitfire. There was lots of cheering from the older generations but I'd be lying if I said it didn't give me goosebumps.
just a thought: if the US control the worlds GPS satellites can't they deny Russia use of them?
Strangely I find Mr Kelin an interesting chap for some reason.
Steve Rosenberg's interviews and reporting though, from inside Russia and pretty gutsy. I wonder how he is remaining to operate. His Lukashenko interview was pretty ballsy IMHO.
just a thought: if the US control the worlds GPS satellites can’t they deny Russia use of them?
As the above (link to Glonass) the American GPS system is only one of at least 4 systems, 3 of which are global. If they degraded accuracy in Ukraine it would also affect Ukrainian usage. And as further above weapons systems also use other navigation techniques.
just a thought: if the US control the worlds GPS satellites can’t they deny Russia use of them?
Not really.
The US did use to broadcast two versions of gps. An encrypted version for military devices and then a general channel for everyone else. So at that time they could degrade the civilian version whilst keeping theirs accurate.
It got discontinued for three reasons.
Firstly it could be countered by cross referencing devices.
Secondly back in the first gulf war the US and allies didnt have many gps devices and so people went out buying their own civilian versions. The authorities concluded it would hurt them more than the Iraqis to disable the devices.
Thirdly everyone had got used to using it and the inaccuracies were problematic for multiple commercial uses including aviation so they pushed for it to be removed.
Oh well. Thanks all just a thought.
Reports of drone attacks hitting civilian targets in Moscow
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1663411949638434816?t=x54xd7qinvMh2Z9yZpyP3A&s=19
Hmmm.
The Ukrainian's don't seem to go for civilian attacks of minimal military advantage. Never say never, but....
...seems more likely is internal stress or some 'freelance' like the incursion at the Russian border last week.
This Twitter thread suggests that the drones can be positively identified as a type known to be developed by Ukraine.
I'm not sure of the utility of this from a Ukrainian perspective, other than a desire to hit back in frustration after being on the receiving end of similar for so long. Vengeance not strategy.
If they were all targeted at military facilities, then fair enough, but with so many fired at Moscow, even those directed at 'legit' targets can go astray or fall on residential areas after being hit by air defences. As with attacks on Kyiv in reverse, it will only serve to harden Russian resolve and support for Putin. Not a good look imo Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1663409760517931009?t=bSvwnixVp139zyboRVWaLw&s=19
This Twitter thread suggests that the drones can be positively identified as a type known to be developed by Ukraine.
Moscow City Officials have announced
We do need more information than a Russian voice...?
If you read the whole thread, OSINT defender who has been a reliable commentator throughout this conflict makes the link. Ukrainian long range UAV called 'Beaver'. Not 100% confirmed, but starting to look quite likely.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1663431413889114113?t=MLPTN7PrhAyHhQr_xlFmbA&s=19
Ah, I stand corrected...
I suppose what it does do is tell Ukraine we here russian air defence is located
If it is a Ukrainian attack (and they don't generally confirm anything outside their borders) then it could be a response to Moscow moving S400 missiles to Belarus this week to join other batteries already there
It might force movement of AA batteries to Moscow as part of the "shaping" phase, Donetsk to Moscow is about 500 miles
If that Osint guy can be 100% sure based on those photos then I cannot be 100% sure of his opinions.