I said it some months back and I'm doubling down on it again, the war ends with a coup in Russia. Someone will see that they can make their lives better without Putin being in the way. They'll do what they need to to reverse sanctions which basically means abandoning the war in Ukraine.
That’s interesting about Legality of war.
Oh go on, I'll bite. Demonstrate the legality of Russia's "action" regarding Ukraine.
Oh god. He’s back. See you in a while once he goes away again. Thanks for all the sane voices on here. Seriously, don’t feed the troll.
Getting slightly back on track with regards to Finland.
There was at least one US tanker flying up and down in the area so suspect some fighters were making an obvious welcome trip.
I said it some months back and I’m doubling down on it again, the war ends with a coup in Russia. Someone will see that they can make their lives better without Putin being in the way. They’ll do what they need to to reverse sanctions which basically means abandoning the war in Ukraine.
End with a coup to be replaced by someone who is much more capable? Aren't that a higher risk?
How do you know they don't like Putin? I don't. I just assume that's their system.
Reverse sanctions? They are not going to starve you know with the vast landmass they have. However, the West will have to deal with inflation. Sanctions only work if the West does not rely on energy source.
Abandoning Ukraine will be worst than being annihilated and forever will carry the scar with humiliation.
Oh go on, I’ll bite. Demonstrate the legality of Russia’s “action” regarding Ukraine.
Legality requires authority and authority requires power and power requires brute force; and that's what happened to Iraq with their WMD. It is legal because the West can fulfilled the conditions of authority, power and brute force in the context of nation state. In the case of Iraq they cannot do anything about it at all other than suffer the consequences of a foreign power definition of legality. But in this case it is neither legal nor illegal until the victor emerges. Only the strong can define the legality of a conflict. Therefore, until someone emerge victorious to impose the rules the meaning of legality is meaningless.
I am out.
Do we really still have to put up with Chewkw the thread vandal? We know he can contribute usefully when he feels the urge, we know he can communicate clearly, which means we know that this gibbering contrarian graffiti is deliberate. Trolling's supposed to be against STW rules, no?
There's a usually a pattern or frequency with his behaviour. I'm assuming something has gone awry hence why he's acting up and behaving like a tool.
@chewkw You could just start a thread like so many others do when they're not happy and talk about it there instead of og shitting on other people's enjoyment.
But ya know, you do you.
There’s a usually a pattern or frequency with his behaviour. I’m assuming something has gone awry hence why he’s acting up and behaving like a tool.
Trumps arrest will have set it off
Trumps arrest will have set it off
LOL! No, it's American news so not sure whether to get excited or not but certainly no impact whatsoever for me.
I am out
LOL and suddenly he can post in perfect english in order to play the victim card
Do we really still have to put up with Chewkw the thread vandal?
Have you considered ignoring posts you don't like?
I think there's also a defenestration related performance contract clause for forum posts to consider too.
molgrips
Full MemberHave you considered ignoring posts you don’t like?
Aye, it's dead easy to ignore gigantic screeds of horseflops and the pages of responses they generate.
Ignoring vandalism really doesn't help.
It is easy yes. I ignore most of STW.
I really don't think Chewkw deserves the bullying he gets. He's got a particular way of expressing himself and is trying to make a point rather clumsily, but then most people on here do that. You lot come across as total bastards at times.
His point about legality being equivalent to superior force is one of Francis Fukuyama's key principles of a political state - the monopoly of force - and the point re Iraq is a good one too. In other words, the powerful ones get to decide what's right.
Have you considered ignoring posts you don’t like?
Yup, it has to a better response than snidey personal digs. And quite easy to achieve. Nothing forces me to read chewkw's posts.
molgrips
Full MemberIt is easy yes. I ignore most of STW.
And you think that's good do you? There's individual threads I ignore when it's just the usual suspects playing their games, but when people are intentionally crapping on a good thread like this, it's not healthy and if it leads to you feeling you have to ignore most of the forum, that's a shame tbf.
Chewkw doesn't have "a particular way of expressing himself", he has at least two- and he chooses which one to use. He doesn't express himself clumsily at all. I used to think he did, and I never once complained when it seemed to be a language thing, until he started slipping. But now that he's made it so obvious that it's a choice, a forum trolling apersonality, then he should be in the bin imo. It's not "bullying" to call that out.
(maybe this is more relevant to people who actually don't ignore half the forum?)
In any case- now I'm falling for it too and helping him make the Ukraine Thread into another Chewkw thread so I'll stop here, and hopefully so will he and we can get back to the actual subject.
This is the problem with adopting ridiculous contrarian positions - how do you stay in character without ever slipping?
https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1643399878461231104
I think that Chewkw's point about the relationship between legality and power is a salient one and one and not a crackpot idea as the Fukuyama reference illustrates, (not that some of Fukuyama's ideas aren't a bit crackpot...'The end of History' anyone?)
One thing that is rarely mentioned is that there are still many Ukranians who are loyal to Russia, like the ones who refuse to be evacuated from cities under siege even though their Russian 'brethren' are shelling the s*** out of them. Mental I know, but turkeys and Christmas, Brexit and taking back control etc, you can't un-mad mad people.
In that light does anyone think that Ukraine is going to regain all the teritories lost to Russia and return it's borders to the post Soviet condition? and if they did would that result in a lasting peace? A total victory for Ukraine would leave millions of self identifying Russians either digruntled or displaced.
In some ways the situation reminds me of the partition of India, a careless and hastily made arrangement birthed the soverign nations of both ****stan and Ukraine. Dombass, Luhansk and Crimea standing in for Kashmir.
I said at the begining of this thread that I don't see Ukraine regaining all its former teritories, My guess is that the Ukranian counter offensive will break through to the Black Sea between Melitapol and Mariapol, denying the Russians the land bridge to Crimea and a peace deal will be struck that leaves Russia with the former annexed teritories in the east and Crimea.
Basically a whole lot of wasted life for nothing. A score draw for Russia and something less for Ukraine, though the remaining portion of Ukraine will have forged a new identity for itself, rid of Russian interference.
Ukranians remaining in the East and Crimea will abandon hope and migrate to Ukraine proper and Russian sympathisers left in the new Ukraine will migrate in the other direction to drink vodka and sing songs about the 'Great Patriotic War' (and the not so great one...)
Ukranians remaining in the East and Crimea will have been shipped to far flung parts of Russia.
The US is supplying $2.6bn of materiel to help a Ukrainian counter-offensive, "Our focus is on supporting the Ukrainians to change the dynamic on the ground. We want to help Ukraine advance and hold its positions in what we expect will be a Ukrainian counteroffensive," https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3351964/large-quantity-of-defensive-munitions-earmarked-for-ukraine/
This is the problem with adopting ridiculous contrarian positions – how do you stay in character without ever slipping?
Ah Gidfrey, I've had the displeasure of meeting thas windbag, he truly does believe his own hype.
It's always the fucming reservists who self declare they're experts on military matters.
a peace deal will be struck that leaves Russia with the former annexed teritories in the east and Crimea.
There won't be any peace deal of any kind until Putin is dead. He cannot be trusted to keep any promises he makes so Ukraine will not sign any treaty because it would just give Russia time to rearm ready for another attack.
Peace treaties need to be backed up by military force. The only permanent peace will be when Ukrainian sovereignty is guaranteed by NATO and Russia is deterred from any further attacks. That won't happen for many years because it would require a Russian leader to accept that Russia cannot invade its neighbors.
And it doesn't really matter whether Ukraine is in NATO or not, as long as Ukraine is hostile to Russia, the Russian navy is grounded.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1643383105724489730
saw an article saying elon / twitter are deliberately down voting anything to do with the ukraine war. that'll be why my feeds suddenly dried up when Elon took over.
claims he is worried about ww3. either that or he is looking at investment opportunities in russia.....does seem at odds with his earlier support for ukr and supplying starlink
maybe he realised how many windows his mansion has
His point about legality being equivalent to superior force is one of Francis Fukuyama’s key principles of a political state – the monopoly of force – and the point re Iraq is a good one too. In other words, the powerful ones get to decide what’s right
The 2003 invasion of Iraq took place 20 years ago (19th/20th March) and so there's been a lot written about it recently which I won't repeat, e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/17/iraq-war-spies-labour-invasion-conflict
The point is that 20 years later Russia made many of the same blunders, including having a media that didn't hold the leadership to account before the invasion (Piers Morgan and The Mirror were amongst the few that openly opposed invading Iraq)
Fukyama's first pillar is the state as a monopoly of power that's there to protect its people and to provide services, education, health, etc EDIT NB, power, not force (Fukuyama's own word)
His second pillar is the rule of law, not rules and reasons that can be made up as you go but before you start
The third pillar is democratic accountability
There has to be a tension and a balance between the three and Russia displays none of these characteristics
For the invasion of Iraq: The Chilcot Inquiry is here https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06215/
For the invasions of Ukraine: the reasons keep shifting, but it started as an invasion of Crimea in 2014, spread to the Donbas and then a full invasion last year. It's notable that the Russian state hasn't protected Russian-minority people in Ukraine, but slashed and burned wherever they could
Peace treaties need to be backed up by military force.
And theyre usually arrived at by force too. Its is, more often than not, the implications of battlefield (whether military or economic) realities that determine the terms of negotiation.
There has to be a tension and a balance between the three and Russia displays none of these characteristics
Of course, I'm not saying Russia is a successful state...
Public support for Russia has collapsed amongst those who supported, or perceived themselves as Russia pre war. That's what a bodged invasion, no plans and atrocities do for you.
You'd think that the natural end for this is a coup, but Russia is a bit mediaeval about this - historically always had tzars, or the last hundred years, dictators with no real accountability, and a population that's use to living in misery.. so sadly I tihnk we're a ways from that, no matter how many 10's of 1000's of their own kids they let get killed. I guess we see how the spring goes, and then see if the army helps Mr Putin develop health complications.
In the meantime, as well as Finland joining Nato, Sweden trying, and all of Scandinavia clubbing together anyway to protect airspace, Russia has to deal with trouble in the 'stans now it's not a good police force, trouble with it's little 'peacekeeping' force in a bereakway bit of Moldova, and it's had to sell it's backside to China, so all in all not a great success. I noted that even Lukashenko said there should be a ceasefire - he doesn't want to get dragged in as he won't last a fortnight before he's on a rope.
Public support for Russia has collapsed amongst those who supported, or perceived themselves as Russia pre war
Oh god I hope so! Source?
Russia is a bit mediaeval about this – historically always had tzars, or the last hundred years, dictators with no real accountability, and a population that’s use to living in misery.
I'm definitely not a Russia expert, but little I know does seem to point towards this being the case. They seem to take a weird sort of pride in it, in fact
Public support for Russia has collapsed amongst those who supported...
Do you refer to the public perception of Russia outside of the country or the level of support for the war from ordinary Russians?
You’d think that the natural end for this is a coup, but Russia is a bit mediaeval about this – historically always had tzars, or the last hundred years, dictators with no real accountability
Selected quotes from a former Russian intelligence officer I cannot comment as to how close this defector was to Putin or the authenticity of the claims being made, but the outcome of the mooted three day campaign to take Kyiv is readily apparent.
What are the odds that the Top Secret / NATO leak is disinformation?
Would be a blinder!
EDIT - found it…
What with all the talk about running out of ammo and that? I’ve wondered the same. If it is and you’d asked me a year ago, I’d have scoffed at the thought of the Russians being stoopid enough to buy it.
Now though? Hook, line and sinker!
What are the odds that the Top Secret / NATO leak is disinformation?
That's always the first thing I consider when leaks like this happen.
'Sources' in the DOD have apparently confirmed the documents are real and the Ukrainians are apparently 'furious.'
But then again... that's exactly what they would say if it was all a massive misdirection opp. There's info in there that doesn't really help the Ukrainians even if it is false but then again, a really slick operation would sprinkle some of that in it to make the rest believable.
The timing of the leak seems almost too on the nose, weather report for Kherson says dry all week...... is Mud season ending?
Thing is, even if the Russians move a load of troops and assets in response to this intel the CIA's satellites will feed their locations to Kiev almost in real time and with their shorter of lines communication the Ukrainians will be able to reposition faster than the Russians will.
The truth will come out eventually but right now it's all pure speculation.
Some respect being shown to the Ukrainian's as they leave training in the UK.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1645730797087776768?t=IwlCSgLdGyIi8HsP82_9Lw&s=19
Wow, that got me right on the feels, don't get to feel that proud of the UK often recently but that really did it.
A fully appropriate send-off too, considering what awaits those brave lads back home.
Are they British soldiers? The salute is wrong.
It's a multination training program hosted by the UK armed forces.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Interflex
Are they British soldiers? The salute is wrong.
Maybe it's a Ukrainian salute. After all that's what you'd do if you really wanted to show them respect.
Selected quotes from a former Russian intelligence officer I cannot comment as to how close this defector was to Putin or the authenticity of the claims being made, but the outcome of the mooted three day campaign to take Kyiv is readily apparent
'Lives in an information vacuum' 'gets all of his information from...Russian TV'
So much like Trump!
Are they British soldiers? The salute is wrong.
Twitter reckons there's a whole mixture of different NATO soldiers in there, although it is on a UK base
Theres a video doing the rounds which is of a Ukrainian POW allegedly being (Ive not watched it) tortured, mutilated and murdered.
Might be worth taking a day or two off twitter to avoid seeing that.
There is a very graphic video of a Ukrainian soldier getting beheaded,..and his head put on a spike in Bakhmut.
Not even sure I have the words.