they cannot conceptualise a higher force than ‘guvmint’
🐍
molgrips
The truth is not ambiguous.
Aw, bless.
IEA has published their World Energy Outlook for 2022. (Paris based)
With the loss of its largest export market in Europe, Russia faces the prospect of a much-diminished role in international energy affairs. 2021 proves to be a high-water mark for Russian export flows. Its share of internationally traded gas, which stood at 30% in 2021, falls to 15% by 2030 in the STEPS and to 10% in the APS. Importers in China have been actively contracting for liquefied natural gas, and there is no room in China’s projected gas balance for another large-scale pipeline from Russia.
Found via this Fortune article
“The rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible,” the IEA says in its 524-page report, which lays out three different scenarios for the decades ahead, depending on whether major countries stick to their green-energy commitments. “Russian fossil fuel exports [will] never return in any of the scenarios…to the levels seen in 2021,” it says.
https://fortune.com/2022/10/27/russia-oil-market-power-peaking-energy-iea/
(Ive definitely only scanned this 524 report, not read it front to back)
The Rough storage facility has been brought back online.
Wont make a huge difference tbf
Centrica, owner of British Gas, said that the partial reopening of Rough, 18 miles off the coast of Yorkshire, had boosted Britain’s gas storage capacity by 50 per cent, or 30 billion cubic feet. That is equivalent to about three days of average UK winter gas demand, taking Britain’s total storage capacity to nine days.Centrica conceded, however, that the site was “not a silver bullet for energy security” and could withdraw gas at a rate that would supply only about 1 per cent of UK demand on a very cold winter’s day.
Wont make a huge difference tbf
Because its only partially online. It could have made a rather bigger difference but Centrica had no real interest in it (after all higher prices == higher profits) and the tories declined to pay for it believing in the market knows best.
US DoD has made another weapons package announcement https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3203516/official-describes-dods-efforts-to-bolster-ukraines-defense/
It's mentioned in the same article that Spain and Germany will be providing HAWK and IRIS-T air defence systems as well, although these seem to be existing packages rather than new
Spain is currently training Ukrainian troops on the Aspide air defence system, the second training cadre start next week with the missile systems to follow
Ukraine reports shooting 300 Shahed-136 drones down since 13th Sept https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3602950-ukrainian-forces-down-over-300-shahed136-kamikaze-drones-since-sept-13.html
Two things have changed; there are fewer being launched, which suggests that Iran cannot get them out of the door fast enough, and Russia is launching them at night so that expensive and scarce radar-guided weapons are needed to down them
The UK's operation Orbital has been training Ukrainian forces here since 2015. That was superceded by Operation Interflex in July and training staff from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Canada, the Netherlands and New Zealand have all worked in the UK https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-and-france-at-odds-over-military-training-for-ukrainians/
Australian trainers will now be joining training in the UK for the next round in January, while the EU talks about forming a training mission...
Have we covered Sebastopol yet? Was going to surmise that yet more Russian servicemen were being careless with cigarettes. However the Rus have admitted an assault by both aerial and waterborne UVs, which they apparently fought off. There is one video doing the rounds of a helicopter blowing up something in the water, but there is also footage of some big explosions. Another dagger to the essentials for Putin methinks.
Meanwhile, things rumble on in Kherson. Matter of time until the UA reach the city itself. Not sure if Putin will stage an ‘event’ (be it nuclear, dam related, dirty bomb or poison), more likely destroy the city, sacrifice some cannon fodder to draw out the UA and retreat over the river.
Don’t think Putin is mad enough to escalate in that way. Actually don’t think he’s mad at all. A devious, murderous, sociopath who badly, badly miscalculated with his ‘special operation’, but not mad. So unlikely to cut his own throat. You see, I believe that he would lose the support of many of the power brokers in/around the Kremlin if they seriously thought he was headed in that direction. They’ve stayed loyal thus far through a combo of fear and that he’ll eventually sort this out. They’ve too much to lose if he goes mental. So he’s looking at massive repercussions both from NATO and from his own mob..
Meanwhile, things rumble on in Kherson. Matter of time until the UA reach the city itself
A couple of separate explosions were reported in Kherson:
RIA Novosti said, "Saboteurs attacked the district department of internal affairs in Kherson in order to seize weapons. They managed to fire from a grenade launcher."
There were reports of a large explosion at the local conscript training ground as well. The Russian official line was the controlled destruction of unexploded materiel
Too much to be explained away by a cigarette, missile? SF? Resistance?
Well, that could be another costly day for the Russians.
I also see the Russians have passed 70,000 confirmed dead. 🙁
The numbers are just dizzying. Unbelievable that this is happening in our lifetimes
TBF, conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Tigray, Ethiopia, Somalia, Dafur, Syria have all killed way more, and they're the ones off the top of my head.
I would also think Mexico, Columbia and Venezuela also see tens of thousands dead each year at the moment.
🙁
Drones!
Well, that could be another costly day for the Russians
Russia has already been on an inspection go-slow with grain cargos for some time and they've now used drone attacks as an excuse to stop grain shipments because the safety of shipping can't be guaranteed.
Take your military shipping elsewhere, the civilian shipping is passing safely!
I also see the Russians have passed 70,000 confirmed dead. 🙁
Confirmed?
On 21-22 September fullfact.org was reporting anything between 5937 dead (Russian figure), 25000 (James Heappey MP, based on a three-week old figure from Ben Wallace MP) and 55000 (Ukrainian figure)
Terrible losses of life on both sides
It’s the number given by Ukraine for Russia
Drones!
Russian allegations that the Royal Navy co-ordinated these drone attacks in Sevastopol and the attack on NordStream infrastructure in September are widely reported. No evidence offered as you'd expect, same as when they blamed the NS damage on "Anglo-Saxons" a few weeks ago
It’s the number given by Ukraine for Russia
Absolutely. The only people who know have made it a state secret since invading Crimea in 2014...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/vladimir-putin-declares-all-russian-military-deaths-state-secrets
The Pentagon is estimating 80K Russian casualties, but I doubt that even Russia have very precise figures. What's clear is that Russia is trying to hide how badly things are going and their army has suffered utterly disastrous losses. Many of the soldiers who haven't been wounded or killed are probably militarily ineffective anyway due to fatigue, low morale, lack of food and equipment, etc.
they blamed the NS damage on “Anglo-Saxons” a few weeks ago
I blame the Jutes myself.
Who are the Jutes, by the way?
Can easily believe the higher casually estimates, Ukraines claims for destroyed equipment are backed up pretty closely by visual confirmation by Oryx etc which lebds credence.
Also Russia dies not include soldiers f egg om Donetsk & Luhansk republics in their figures.
It will be interesting to see what the full extent of the damage to ships in Sevastopol will be, if Russia were to lose another flagship!!!
Who are the Jutes, by the way?
From Jutland, which I believe is in Denmark?
This whole thread is mad..
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586488719342637056?t=maRhNdjqWlwWffVTRbKzAA&s=19
From Jutland, which I believe is in Denmark?
Yeah, them. Untrustworthy lot!!
And lets not forget them pesky Frisians. Coming over here and taking the jobs from our own hardworking cows. Great big black and white milk factories that they are.
That Twitter thread is bonkers. How long till they start shooting their own officers?
If they know that's how they're going to get treated when they go back then why wouldn't they surrender.
Who are the Jutes, by the way?
I think they make bags
And lets not forget them pesky Frisians
Best kept away from if theyre with calves
If they know that’s how they’re going to get treated when they go back then why wouldn’t they surrender.
There was a report a week or two back saying that the new conscripts are sent to the front with regular troops behind them, ordered to shoot anyone who tries to retreat or surrender, then behind the regular troops are political officers who are ordered to shoot anyone who disobeys orders.
Darwin award goes to the Russian soldier who posted a Telegram video of the inside of his barracks which was a school that was easily identifiable to Ukraine forces. Needless to say it will need more than a lick of paint before the kids can return.
This whole thread is mad..
What an absolute mess
Giorgia Meloni's Italian Government is sending AA and artillery systems to Ukraine. France is also sending AA systems
"Italy and France agreed to supply Ukraine with European anti-aircraft missile systems SAMP-T"
"LaReppublica reports that Italy is preparing to transfer six PzH 2000 howitzers and two M270 systems to the Armed Forces of Ukraine"
"Italy transferred to Ukraine from 20 to 30 M109L self-propelled artillery mounts, – La Repubblica"
All reports from https://tpyxa.net/nonmedianews/
Baykar, the Turkish drone maker, is testing Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncıs drones fitted with AA missiles. They hope to supply them to Ukraine soon https://baykartech.com/en/press/turkish-drone-maker-baykar-to-counter-kamikaze-threat-in-ukraine/
The TB2 has already been used in a "naval mission"; Russia says that it was the Moskva sinking
Opinion piece by Vladislav Inozemtsev, Professor and Chair at Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.
https://theins.ru/en/opinion/vladislav-inozemtsev/255450
The final countdown of the Putin era. How the mobilization will affect Russia’s economy and the Kremlin
Fairly blunt in places
meanwhile, women can clearly see what a horrifying future the balding Kremlin dwarf has in store for them. Under the new circumstances, no orphan allowances or white Ladas for families of the fallen can stop the intensifying rebellion
I’m no personal security expert … but … I would suggest he steers clear on windows/door knobs/cups of tea/rivers and so on.
Blimey, he doesn’t pull his punches. Balding Kremlin dwarf indeed! He’s a brave man 😐
Jeez, thats well worth reading. Brave soul indeed.
China's industrial output has been down for some time now, partly due to swingeing C19 restrictions. As China enters the winter season and a possible rise in C19 and flu, combined with a likely European recession, oil use will drop
China increased imports of Russian oil to their highest ever in May, but this will slow down now as the latest blow to Russia's economy
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, discussing Ukraine amongst other topics
https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-peoples-republic-of-china-prc-state-councilor-and-foreign-minister-wang-yi-3/
World grain shipments will restart today, but Russia still isn't participating
Ukraine has the moral high-ground here and Russia is undoubtedly the pariah
"Ukraine remains a reliable partner for the civilized world and is ready to continue shipping agricultural products to ensure global food security"
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3603856-infrastructure-ministry-ukraine-ready-to-continue-exporting-grain-to-ensure-food-security.html
It doesn't help the Russian case that the "grain corridor" ports around Odessa (Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi) are 200 miles away from the dangers of military action in Sevastopol
This sums up how crazy the war and Pootin is.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1587059006715170817?s=20&t=yReb4MpuoNovYhv03moPHw
why do I keep getting stories on my news feed saying those naval drones are British? I mean apart from being absolutely bollocks what does it achieve spouting that disinformation?
I mean I suppose its a similar story to Iran supplying drones, which I do actually believe and there is verifable photo evidence
Apparently there's a strong Royal Navy involvement in the boat drones. This is both procuring them and assisting the operation.
I suspect it will be post Russian defeat that we get (some) of the story.
why do I keep getting stories on my news feed saying those naval drones are British?
Russia says that the raid was "led by British specialists", they don't imply where the drones were made. There isn't any evidence that they've shared to prove even that.
I've also seen Twitter reports that the allegations came about because Liz Truss's phone was hacked, ignoring that this was discovered during her leadership campaign months ago. Russia knows that allegations about her phone being hacked are now public (if it was hacked) so why not say so?
Apparently there’s a strong Royal Navy involvement in the boat drones. This is both procuring them and assisting the operation.
I'm sceptical, though happy to be proved wrong. What are the sources for that?
I’m sceptical, though happy to be proved wrong. What are the sources for that?
Russia is quite happy for these allegations to continue because it distracts from their appalling security around a shipping roadstead in a war zone
I know, but matt_outandabout's post suggests (unless I have misread it) that there is some truth in them.
