Ok who woke up daz and chewy? Comedy gold those two
LOL! Just an idea to stop the war really as the current situation is going no way.
Russia will not give up the annexed regions and Ukraine wants it back so where will it end?
Why don’t you volunteer to go and sit where they drop this nuke you want, as an impartial observer. Just to make sure it’s done properly?
Why don’t you volunteer to go and sit where they drop this nuke you want, as an impartial observer. Just to make sure it’s done properly?
Life is short. Enjoy while we still can. That part of the world belongs to them.
How much do you get paid to spout all the bollox you come out with? I could do with a little extra income myself.
@welshfarmer I'm sure life as a PoW is pretty unpleasant. I know of my Dad's experience as a PoW for 4 years in WWII. But... He wasn't being shot at. Well, USAF bombed the shit house in the camp but hey!
It was interesting to hear their experiences and why they ended up as "collaborators". A man has to earn a buck.
How much do you get paid to spout all the bollox you come out with? I could do with a little extra income myself.
LOL! Do we really want Ukraine/Russia to fight to the end?
@chewkw So what are we looking at? A radioactive curtain from the North of Finland down to the Black Sea to replace the old Iron one?
The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds.
I must be missing these media channels
Russia will not give up the annexed regions and Ukraine wants it back so where will it end?
Russia is losing the annexed regions by the hour 100s of KM at a time
This is a day old and already out of date
https://twitter.com/breaknewsi/status/1577292211762434056?t=eoFdDqi-fA3_F4e0sWQUrA&s=19
Ukrainians saying that there's been a surge in Russian troops calling their surrender hotline, 1000s have apparently done so
They get a reward for bringing in armoured vehicles
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1577722675136430080?t=Ednse4PlLDTN3vNN_HKf3A&s=19
Snihurivka is at the centre of the road & rail hub north of Kherson
The Russian collapse seems inevitable there now
Also gives Ukraine ability to support their own advances
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1577675590290784256?s=19
Chewkw: Does not matter who use it first so long as a “wall of radiation” is created that will be good enough.
Unfortunately that is not how radiation and fall out of isotopes works but then again that’s par for the course for your stream of consciousness masquerading as fact, very little science is known about detonation of small scale nuclear arms as to what the consequences would be, find the wind changing a few degrees and you render 1000’s of square kilometres uninhabitable, then you have the concerns over contamination of ground water and soil or underground running water, what about if it rains or if the weather patterns change and atmospheric pressure changes?, this could carry the isotopes into the jet stream and deposit them thousands of kilometres away, what about the animals carrying radiation?.
Go away and educate yourself before regurgitation of talking point sound bites
It is a risk that putin has access to nuclear weapons, but he will not use them as that will render the entire Russian state and the oligarchs as impotent, they will not allow that to happen.
I've never encountered anyone who activity wanted nuclear war as prose's for peace. Bonkers
You still don’t understand do you, If you can contain a radioactive wall containing isotopes in one specific area then I imagine the Nobel prize is yours
Come on folks, there’s three (at least) of you dragging this extremely informative and really quite valuable thread into bickering and arguma-lympian territory that STW seemed to have managed to steer away from in recent times (for the better).
Please stop.
I’ve never encountered anyone who activity wanted nuclear war as prose’s for peace. Bonkers
Why do you think all the nuclear armed nations want nuke? For posturing?
You still don’t understand do you, If you can contain a radioactive wall containing isotopes in one specific area then I imagine the Nobel prize is yours
If it happens then probably a huge part of Ukraine and probably part of Russia will be uninhabitable, which is exactly the idea.
Come on folks, there’s three (at least) of you dragging this extremely informative and really quite valuable thread into bickering and arguma-lympian territory that STW seemed to have managed to steer away from in recent times (for the better).Please stop.
+1
Been a member of this forum for a few years now and still hadn't cottoned on to how many f***in nutters there are here..........oh well...
Well I'm a grumpy old fart but I'm all in favour of a new iron curtain, with the route determined this time by Western Europe.
Why do you think all the nuclear armed nations want nuke? For posturing?
Well, er, yes. That IS precisely the point.
Been a member of this forum for a few years now and still hadn’t cottoned on to how many f***in nutters there are here……….oh well…
Yep. I can still be surprised at how fast a thread can be derailed. I often have to fight myself getting sucked into their shite-vortexes
Anyhoo all this talk of nuclear deterrents sent me down a YouTube rabbit hole of Yes, minister and Yes, prime minister clips
I listened to the podcast sideways on BBC sounds. They had a nuclear war mini series which I found quite good.
Well, er, yes. That IS precisely the point.
So far so good for posturing but at some point in time one/some of them will just have to use it to test their power, which is inevitable. The question is who will be the first to use it.
So far so good for posturing but at some point in time one/some of them will just have to use it to test their power, which is inevitable.
They would need enormous confidence. Or a death wish.
They would need enormous confidence. Or a death wish.
Both will be my guess.
Everyone knows NATO/West/USA is armed to their teeth but how they will challenge that will have to be seen.
matt_outandabout
Full MemberWhat tyres for a mobile ICBM launcher?
Rocket Rons obviously.
Ok who woke up daz and chewy? Comedy gold those two
I stopped posting on this thread months ago due to the general hostility towards anyone who wanted a less violent resolution to this conflict. I see that hasn’t changed. I’ll leave you guys to your live football match style commentary. Enjoy.
It is difficult to see how you do not see the contradictions in your position. How are we to compromise with a bad faith actor?
If the world is to be held to ransom today, is it better that we put it off until tomorrow?
It is unfortunate that it must be now, but the timing was not of our choosing. If it is a bluff, it must be called now.
It's interesting (to me at least 🙂 ) that during a video meeting with teachers President Putin started to quiz them about their thoughts on the Pugachev Rebellion.
Catherine the Great eventually beat the rebels and Pugachev was executed. President Putin summarised the reason for the rebellion as, "...an element of the weakness of central authority in the country"
I can't work out if it's justification for the state that he's created or a shot across the bows; I think the latter.
A big question over the use of nuclear weapons is, why hasn't Russia used them already? They have suffered several routs, but have not gone nuclear. This means that Russia has self-imposed constraints on their use. So, the issue is, what would Ukraine have to do to make Russia feel that it's better to use nukes than to not use them?
1. Putin's major concern is regime survival. Losing in Ukraine is bad for him, but as long as his regime survives, he will probably not use nukes (because using nukes will have unpredictable consequences that may threaten the survival of his regime.)
2. An invasion of Russian territory. Nobody thinks this would serve any purpose, neither NATO nor Ukraine have any plans to do this. However, Putin has attempted to unilaterally redraw the borders of Russia, so it's not clear where he thinks the red line is. Since his declaration of annexation, Ukraine has recaptured large areas of land that Putin declared to be part of Russia. This indicates that recapturing Ukrainian territory isn't a red line. The way things are going, it won't be too long before Crimea is isolated and Russia will be facing a decision whether to withdraw its troops there or to risk losing them too.
So, the doom-mongering over possible nuclear use is a bit exaggerated. It's not impossible that it will happen, but Putin will only use them if he believes it is essential to his regime's survival, not just to avoid losing on the battlefield.
The war in Ukraine is creating an important battle over energy supplies for the west.
Stored gas supplies should get Europe through this winter, but the bigger problem will be refilling that storage for next winter.
Gazprom is continuing to supply Europe, e.g. Italy via Austria and other routes, so all is not lost with the Nord Stream pipelines.
NATO has made a very simple statement, "We, as Allies, have committed to prepare for, deter and defend against the coercive use of energy and other hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors. Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response" https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_207733.htm
The EU is trying to convince Europe to buy as a block to reduce bidding wars and price increases, as well as adopting a price cap strategy. Some states favour the cap to slow inflation and others reject it because it would make supply more difficult to source.
Vladislav Inozemtsev thinks that Russia timed its energy campaign badly and has already lost, due in part to over-estimating its energy position much as it over-estimated its ability to invade Ukraine https://ridl.io/putin-s-tactical-mistake/
A big question over the use of nuclear weapons is, why hasn’t Russia used them already? They have suffered several routs, but have not gone nuclear. This means that Russia has self-imposed constraints on their use. So, the issue is, what would Ukraine have to do to make Russia feel that it’s better to use nukes than to not use them?
I think that the influence is more with China than ever it is with the Ukraine.
This is from the state-backed Global Times on 2nd October, which I think is clear advice from China to Russia,
"...all European countries will tremble under the shadow of a possible nuclear war. In that case, there will be no security for anyone, not for Ukraine, and not for the world."
"Whether the conflict will spiral out of control is everyone’s concern."
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276526.shtml
The timing is important because on 3rd October, after Ramzan Kadyrov's comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that he preferred a “balanced” approach to the issue of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine rather than emotions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-prefers-balance-after-putin-ally-suggests-using-nuclear-bomb-ukraine-2022-10-03/
Nice to see a couple of informative and thoughtful posts
The recent increase in oil prices is also a concern and is caused largely by OPEC+ (of which Russia is a member) reducing oil production by the largest amount since 2020 when C19 hit.
During C19 the price fell to below $25 per barrel; it rose to over $100 in the weeks leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, ironically rewarding Russia with increasing oil revenues, as buyers scrambled to get stocks. The price has since fallen to $90
The decision taken by OPEC+ to put the brakes on the price drop is IMHO a business decision because at the end of the year EU oil imports from Russia will almost completely stop (a handful of countries have exemptions) and Russia will sell to the highest bidder, undercutting OPEC+ pricing.
There's also the possibility that cynical non-OPEC 3rd parties will buy cheap Russian oil and sell it to equally cynical countries bound by western sanctions
Nice to see a couple of informative and thoughtful posts
Yep, some well though out posts instead of whattaboutery/insinuations or just flat out trolling is appreciated.
Substack blog by US Historian Timothy Snyder who specialises in Central and Eastern European modern history.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war
Snyder has a record of criticism of both Putin and Trump. Even if he does allow some form of bias in, he still knows far more on this than anyone here.
War is ultimately about politics. That Ukraine is winning on the battlefield matters because Ukraine is exerting pressure on Russian politics. Tyrants such as Putin exert a certain fascination, because they give the impression that they can do what they like. This is not true, of course; and their regimes are deceptively brittle. The war ends when Ukrainian military victories alter Russian political realities, a process which I believe has begun.
Right now, though, we have a certain difficulty seeing how Ukraine gets to victory, even as the Ukrainians advance. This is because many of our imaginations are trapped by a single and rather unlikely variant of how the war ends: with a nuclear detonation. I think we are drawn to this scenario, in part, because we seem to lack other variants, and it feels like an ending.Using the mushroom cloud for narrative closure, though, generates anxiety and hinders clear thinking. Focusing on that scenario rather than on the more probable ones prevents us from seeing what is actually happening, and from preparing for the more likely possible futures. Indeed, we should never lose sight of how much a Ukrainian victory will improve the world we live in.
That /\/\ last sentence, whether you agree with anything else in the quote or not, stands out for me.
As I'll explain in a moment, giving in to nuclear blackmail won't end the conventional war in Ukraine. It would, however, make future nuclear war much more likely. Making concessions to a nuclear blackmailer teachers him that this sort of threat will get him what he wants, which guarantees further crisis scenarios down the line. It teaches other dictators, future potential blackmailers, that all they need is a nuclear weapon and some bluster to get what they want, which means more nuclear confrontations. It tends to convince everyone that the only way to defend themselves is to build nuclear weapons, which means global nuclear proliferation.
Rocket Rons obviously.
Some of us are addressing the important issues! 🙂
Rocket Rons obviously.
I'm disappointed that Fire XC's are not suggested...
More importantly, which is louder?
> A Tactical Nuclear Weapon
Or
> A home brew tubeless tyre popping off the rim and spraying sealant all over the workshop
And which one makes you more anxious?
Substack blog by US Historian Timothy Snyder who specialises in Central and Eastern European modern history
Excellent stuff, thanks for posting!
There’s a rumour doing the rounds that one of Prigozhin’s (Wagner Group Oligarch) media bloggers has just been arrested in Moscow. Aleksey Slobodenyuk.
Needs some verification that one to be believable
There’s a rumour doing the rounds that one of Prigozhin’s (Wagner Group Oligarch) media bloggers has just been arrested in Moscow. Aleksey Slobodenyuk
Interesting, Prigozhin & Khadyrov have been openly criticizing the failures of the special military operation 🙄 & demanding escalation
Maybe Putin is sending a signal not to overstep the mark
Edit
ISW update confirms that bloggers have been arrested and that Khadyrov has been promoted! And that Putin lining up Shoigu to take the fall
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5
^^^ there is a video purportedly showing this arrest.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248
Seems to be some of power struggle going on with Prigozhin and Shoigu, according to reports.
That Yale Professor I linked to has a lecture on YT from 2014 looking at Ukraine, its 1hr, Ive not watched it but hopefully will.
Just sharing in case its of interest to anyone.
Ukraine: From Propaganda to Reality
Since February, the world’s eyes have been on Ukraine as Ukrainians rebelled against rising authoritarianism in their own country and were met in return with a Russian invasion of Ukraine's southern and eastern provinces. Yale University’s Timothy Snyder is the world’s leading historian of Eastern Europe. His series of articles in the New York Review of Books has been hailed as the definitive analysis of this crisis. Join him as he clarifies the stakes.
Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.
Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it's history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.👍
Speaking of videos I've recently watched this one- very clear minded and informative, well worth a watch:
