In Trump's America? Who knows?
True, but there is this polling published September. https://harvardharrispoll.com/
As long as the Russian does not mistake Storm Shadow, Tomahawk etc as carrying nuclear war head(s), they will not retaliate with similar nuclear capable war heads. The problem is that when the Russia suddenly think that a nuclear capable "vessel" is on their way to Russia, they might counter strike immediately. Then the whole place is uninhabitable for several hundred years.
Everyone understands that the point of Russian nuclear posturing is to "reflexively control" western decision makers and they've clearly taken you in too.
Storm Shadow doesn't have a nuclear option and Tomahawk isn't in Ukraine (yet). The Russian military is professional and understands that nuclear warheads wouldn't be supplied in any case.
Russia has been firing a whole bunch of nuclear-capable missiles into Ukraine for almost four years, including Oreshnik and Novator and hasn't made a nuclear mistake (Novator caused the US to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019).
Prevailing winds tend to blow fallout from Ukraine into Russia (see Chernobyl); the only countries affected by higher becquerel levels were Ukraine (the site) and Russia, with Belarus a distant third.
They don't trust the words of the West or if they suddenly feel very threaten, the melt down begins. All Ukraine needs to do is to create the Franz Ferdinand moment out of desperation, and with the Russians thinking there is a pre-emptive strike from the West/Ukraine they will retaliate accordingly.
Do tell. You must be one of very few in the world who knows who the heir to the President's seat is.
Not great news coming out of Ukraine. It's been teetering on the brink for a good while, but it looks like Pokrovsk has all but fallen bar a few tiny pockets of resistance. Kupyansk heading that way too. This has come of course at a monumental cost in human life to Russia and of course to Ukraine, but not on the same scale due to the defenders advantage. This is pretty grim as both cities are logistical hubs that pave the way for further advances by Russia. There is evidence of war crimes coming out of Pokrovsk, including summary executions of civilians trapped there.
In other news Ukraine reportedly launched it's largest drone attack to date on Saturday night. It came in direct response to further Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. It seems Ukraine was able to turn the lights out in large areas of Moscow. Something Russia has done to Ukraine with impunity for 4 years. At least now they will feel some of the pain they have repeatedly inflicted on Ukraine.
**** Putin. I hope the **** comes to a very unpleasant end some time soon.
Not great news coming out of Ukraine. It's been teetering on the brink for a good while, but it looks like Pokrovsk has all but fallen bar a few tiny pockets of resistance. Kupyansk heading that way too. This has come of course at a monumental cost in human life to Russia and of course to Ukraine, but not on the same scale due to the defenders advantage. This is pretty grim as both cities are logistical hubs that pave the way for further advances by Russia. There is evidence of war crimes coming out of Pokrovsk, including summary executions of civilians trapped there.
Pokrovsk is really difficult to call ATM. Russia has called encirclement/victory way too early, largely because President Putin has named it as a "must" (along with Bakhmut (fell 2022) and Avdiivka (Feb 2024)) with his deadline in a couple of weeks. It's never a good idea to let political leaders decide military "prizes".
The "frontlines" appear to be massively porous, so assessed control of an area of either land or air is impossible to call. Both Russia and Ukraine agree that at least one Ukrainian helicopter landed SF in Pokrovsk https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-lands-special-forces-embattled-pokrovsk-sources-say-2025-10-31/ and https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63433 which Ukraine turned to trolling that Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), was there in person.
The important thing now is to keep lines for withdrawal open and to keep fighting for as long as is acceptable. Russia is withdrawing troops from other areas to keep absorbing their massive losses in Pokrovsk, which has enabled Ukraine to concentrate a counter-offensive in Kupyansk, another city on the edge.
Looking at a map, I'd have been gone from Pokrovsk, but the situation on the ground doesn't appear to reflect that.
A further Stefan Korshak piece on Pokrovsk https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/63546
An increase in mechanised assault by Russia last month has again led to the abandonment of such tactics in the face of failure and they're back to the old Soviet doctrine that it doesn't matter what the problem is, just throw personnel into it.
After the last two unseasonal years, they're also back to seasonal weather in the Pokrovsk Raion of fog, rain and cold. Those conditions hamper drone operations on both sides and "a Russian mechanized column stuck in the Kazennyi Torets River near Pankivka (east of Dobropillya) during a failed October 25 mechanized assault indicates that autumn weather conditions are impeding Russian mechanized operations." (ISW link below)
I started a longer piece, walked away for half an hour and then found this, FML, but it saves me some writing 🙂
Is this a Russian breakthrough? Has the tide turned? Or is what is currently happening more likely to be the “culmination of Russian efforts to conquer at least something this year,” as Ukrainian analyst Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies puts it?
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/63619
In Pokrovsk,
The Ukrainian drone unit stated that these Russian fireteams are overwhelming Ukrainian positions such that Ukrainian drone operators do not have time to launch drones. Ukrainian military sources have recently reported that Russian infiltration groups are deliberately targeting Ukrainian drone crews to engage them in close combat, inhibiting Ukrainian drone operations.
Mashovets stated that Russian forces send out many small assault groups for further infiltration missions and to consolidate and reinforce positions during the exploitation phase, likely hoping to overwhelm Ukrainian forces while sustaining heavy casualties.
The current battlespace in the Pokrovsk direction took Russian forces 21 months to achieve... (and) advance the 39 kilometers (just over 24 miles) from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk.
Successful Ukrainian drone operations largely stymied Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction from late 2024 into summer 2025.
The urban environment in Pokrovsk has provided Russian forces with cover and concealment for infiltration groups and drone crews that are absent in other areas of the frontline, and Russia has dedicated staggering and unsustainable amounts of manpower and materiel to seizing Pokrovsk.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-4-2025/
Here's a frontline view of the situation in Pokrovsk by Diana Butsko, a journalist who is interviewing Ukraine's troops. It's as valid as the more optimistic picture from Ukraine's command https://hromadske.ua/en/war/254005-
The tipping point in Russian oil production may have been reached. According to Bloomberg the number of tankers sitting in Russian ports filled with oil, but without customers, is rising. This may be a lull while the markets work out how to bypass current US and EU sanctions, but if this continues oil production will have to be slowed at massive cost to the Russian economy.
The amount of Russian crude idling offshore has soared to more than 380 million barrels, rising by 27 million barrels, or 8% since the start of September, according to Bloomberg citing tanker-tracking data, which underscores the growing log jam.
A report by Bloomberg last week showed that Russian exports of refined fuels had dropped to levels unseen since the war began.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63642
Stefan Korshak opinion piece. Well worth reading in full. Some bits here with comments in [brackets] by me, although some parts in (brackets) are part of the original article.
OPINION: Strikes That Shock, the Pokrovsk Winkle, Tea Party Tangent
Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, shares his perspective on recent developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine.Ukraine's air campaign:
But for about the past three weeks, the Ukrainians widened their targeting [from oil refineries and exports to include] the Russian power grid, and particularly Russian power substations and the transformers inside them.We are eyewitnesses to a systemic, long-term, strategic Ukrainian effort to force blackouts on the Moscow power grid, keep them coming, and undermine that grid’s capacity to run industry and heat homes.
Pokrovsk:
The short version of this section is “fighting continuing and situation unclear.” If you want more detail well there was plenty – just none of it conclusive.Dobropillya:
...the Kremlin sacked the commander of the 51st Combined Arms Army Lt. Gen. Sergey Milchakov, and the commander of 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade Maj. Gen. Sergey Naimushin for “failures in the Dobropillya direction,” meaning they were in charge of a major offensive operation just to the north of Pokrovsk in August and September.The Ukrainians defeated it solidly by bringing up reserves, cutting the Russian penetration into several encirclements, and then wiping out each sack of Russian troops one by one.
Tuapse oil terminal closed to exports:
Russian authorities said “falling debris” damaged two foreign civilian ships and infrastructure but claimed no injuries. [Four "shadow fleet" tankers and a tug damaged or destroyed]Bloomberg on Thursday confirmed the strikes had shut the terminal down full stop, major exports of Russian oil for the time being are no longer possible via the Black Sea. Also, the oil refinery in Tuapse that produces things like diesel or gasoline for export, is shut down as well.
Avdiivka:
The target was a pair of launch ramps for Shahed drones built by Russian forces on the edge of Donetsk airport. Adjacent was a storage site for assembled drones and, it seems quite clear, a stock of fuel and warheads for the drones.Ukrainian sources claim: Ammunition dump totally destroyed, fuel dump totally destroyed, launch ramps and equipment destroyed, power lines and support buildings damaged, 1,000 Shaheds destroyed, 1,500 munitions (est.) destroyed. [There's video too]
It seems like about a half dozen drones and a smaller number of missiles executed the strike.
[Believed to be FP2 drones and possibly Storm Shadow, but that isn't confirmed. UK and France have restarted Storm Shadow production] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-storm-shadow-and-missile-cooperation-to-boost-jobs-as-uk-and-france-reboot-defence-relationship
SAMP/T vs. Patriot:
[Bit of a discussion on AD systems.]
It includes, "interceptor missiles no matter who makes them are ridiculously expensive ($3 million a pop) and what’s worse the US stopped giving Ukrainian Patriot missiles back in February, and since then will only sell them at a marked-up price"
[For clarity, President Trump imposed a 10% surcharge on US sales to NATO to cover US Security Guarantees]NATO military industry expansion:
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a Thursday press conference announced that overall NATO ammunition production had overtaken Russia’s, and now the Atlantic Alliance is cranking out more shell than Russia.
[Essentially a decision taken by industry rather than by vacillating politicians, based on foresight by industry]US Tariffs:
What I am not seeing, however, is the – to me – obvious point that the Americans fought a Revolution against Great Britain, because the British King George claimed the right to put tariffs on goods imported by the American colonies.
There's been a boost to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban's election hopes in April. His Fidesz party is polling a steady 38% v 45% for the favourite Peter Magyar of Tisza
WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions for using Russian oil and gas, a White House official said on Friday, after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban pressed his case for a reprieve during a friendly meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington.
"He has not made a mistake on immigration. So he's respected by everybody, he's liked by some ... I like and respect him, I'm a double," Trump said. "And that's the way Hungary is being led. They're being led properly, and that's why he's going to be very successful in his upcoming election."
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-meet-hungarys-orban-discuss-russian-oil-economic-cooperation-2025-11-07/
Russia really doesn't want Belgium to put €140 billion of frozen Russian assets into a reparations loan for Ukraine.
BRUSSELS, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Belgium's Liege airport has resumed flights after a temporary halt due to a drone sighting, the country's air traffic control service said on Friday in the second such incident this week.
The Skeyes air traffic control service said it received a report of a drone being spotted over the airport around 06:30 GMT, leading to a closure of the airport for about 30 minutes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgiums-liege-airport-temporarily-halted-again-due-drone-sighting-belga-says-2025-11-07/
Good updates timba...
Old fishing nets from France become vital protection against Russian drones in Ukraine
Apparently Lavrov hasn’t been seen for a while - no one really knows what this means, plenty of speculation though !! 🤣
Russia really doesn't want Belgium to put €140 billion of frozen Russian assets into a reparations loan for Ukraine.
Which explains why the Russian hacktivists have been focussing on Belgian targets this last week; transport and banking mainly.
Lavrov: still breathing I'm afraid. No window/tea interfaces. Yet.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63945
TLDR: The politically important messaging from Ukraine's Government has taken a big hit this week as six months of missteps culminated in a corruption scandal and PR disaster, upsetting citizens, affecting its EU trajectory and presenting a bonus to Russia that will cause wobbles in Europe over funding Ukraine's defence.
There's a bit of background followed by an outline of the corruption scandal that erupted this week. Read the full articles for more detail.
Background
Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), have been independent since 2015 after the Euromaidan demonstrations ousted much of Moscow's influence and set Ukraine on the road to EU membership.
Independence of the NABU and SAPO agencies, importantly, gave them the room to investigate anyone and anything within the state apparatus without referring to the respective state departments for permission and final decisions, thus complying with EU requirements.
In July, Ukraine's SBU (security services) raided both agencies because of allegations of Russian infiltration, which was almost immediately followed by a suspicious rush in Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada (Rada), to strip both agencies of their independence through changes in legislation.
The changes bypassed a first reading by hitching a ride on a bill already at second reading stage, was narrowly passed by the Rada and signed by President Zelensky into law on 22nd July within days rather than the usual delay of months.
This raised corruption concerns in the EU and also caused street protests in Ukraine; why would you destroy investigative independence and integrity when you could more simply deal with a few Russian agents?
Within a couple of days President Zelensky submitted a second bill effectively reversing the first, which was aired more properly in the Rada a week later in two back-to-back readings on 31st July and became law on 1st August, also within a few days.
This time it was passed by a greater number of politicians, but which leaves the issue of Russian influence in the Rada possibly being greater than that allegedly within Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies and its effect on funding for Ukraine's defence.
Reference: https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-votes-on-bill-restoring-nabu-sapo-independence/
This Week
Timur Mindich, majority co-owner of Kvartal 95 Studio, which produced President Zelensky’s TV series Servant of the People (which also happens to be the name taken by his political party) left Ukraine the day before NABU raids.
The allegations are that Mindich assisted in a $100mn corruption scheme involving Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear power operator. Some members of Zelensky's cabinet have resigned and have had restrictions placed on them during investigations, along with some Energoatom executives.
This comes at a time when Ukraine's energy infrastructure is taking a beating from Russian missile strikes and workers are placing their lives on the line to effect repairs.
It also coincides with Europe looking for satisfactory ways to divert frozen Russian assets to Ukraine in the form of a loan.
"The whole Energoatom situation was clearly a PR disaster for Zelensky, coming on the back of the Pokrovsk situation evolving in a pretty bad way. It also comes as the Europeans are debating the immobilized Central Bank of Russia (CBR) asset issue – or the alternatives.
Europe putting its hand in its pocket for more funds while some members of the Zelensky administration – allegedly – having their hand in the same pocket taking cash out – is not a great look."
"This could all still play out as a win for Zelensky if he is seen as finally addressing the corruption issue – and he has moved to force the resignation of his energy and justice ministers, finally."
"The winners in this will be Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrei Yermak, and the PM, Yulia Svyrdenko. Neither have been mentioned in the Energoatom case, and Svyrdenko is using this to push for a broader clear-out within the Zelensky team."
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/64233
I'll leave you with an opinion on the military situation by Stefan Korshak. I've included a paragraph, but the full article is worth reading
Ukrainian Commander Calls for ‘Calm’ and Less ‘Overreaction’ to New Kremlin Push in South
Official Ukrainian statements say the Russians are stopped. Official Kremlin statements say Russia is advancing. Independent observers say the situation isn’t clear.
by Stefan Korshak | Nov. 14, 2025Kyrll Sazonov, a 41st Brigade officer, in a Thursday analysis of the Zaporizhzhia-Hulyaipole battles called the fighting there “a big mess.” Small groups of Russian infantry are filtering through Ukrainian lines, and Ukrainian counter-attackers are seeking to hunt them down, and neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64242
neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.
Tbh, you could say that about the entire conflict zone for really quite some time now
neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.
Tbh, you could say that about the entire conflict zone for really quite some time now
Russia has a clear advantage: 10x the numbers of aircraft, 7x the number of armoured vehicles, 5x the numbers of military ships and it's taken them twelve years to still not capture the whole Donbas region (or 20% of Ukraine)
Troop numbers in Ukraine are slightly in Ukraine's favour, but they're defending an entire country, which is equivalent to another four Donbas regions. Russia is fighting in limited areas so has a massive advantage there too
That's just an advantage in numbers, not an advantage in the ability to win the war anytime soon which is what I was getting at.
What I was here to post is, Anders has done a longer Q and A
That's just an advantage in numbers, not an advantage in the ability to win the war anytime soon which is what I was getting at.
Without wishing to pick a fight, this is a massive problem in the EU ATM. I'm not equating you to any of this, but it's a difficult path for Ukraine ATM when they could be making progress.
Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to stop the Russian army. More than that, in 2022 Ukraine's forces forced the withdrawal of the numerically advantaged Russian forces from the edge of Kyiv and back into the Donbas
That tells me that a properly supported Ukraine has the advantage in leadership and innovation over a Russia supported by N.Korea and China.
The failure to agree a deal within the EU on the €140bn in frozen assets is a case in point. In October they agreed to call it a "reparation loan", which according to Chancellor Merz is "a step forward", just as the ball was kicked into the long grass until December.
This fits with Reuters reporting, "Hungary PM Orban says Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield". Europe won't commit certain weapons to Ukraine to give them an advantage and now they won't commit funds either, so Ukraine is mired.
Germany then added that Ukraine must use the loan to buy weapons that suit EU members,
It is "important that these additional funds are solely used to finance Ukraine's military equipment", Merz wrote in the Financial Times, adding that EU member states and Ukraine would "jointly determine" which weapons to procure. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwykd4l3dy1o
IMHO, this is why Ukraine is now signing letters of intent on fleets of Gripen and Rafale aircraft that are of minimal use now, but might be by 2035
Financial details are yet to be worked out, but reports say France plans to attract EU financing and also access frozen Russian assets - a controversial move that has split the 27-member bloc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy170jkekdo
Ukraine's allies need to get behind them and push for a quick win, rather than supporting Orban's line.
The US sanctions bill may be passed into law and will allow the imposition 500% tariffs, which will be of concern in Europe where Russian energy is still relied upon in part. It may be necessary for the EU to make deals for Presidential exemptions if they exceed a 180-day limit.
President Trump has been saying for months that the bill will only be signed by him if he retains final control over the sanctions imposed, without deferring to Congress.
This would allow him similar exemptions to those existing on Russian oil for supply to Hungary and for which a sell-off of privately-owned Lukoil assets to certain companies was allowed.
The bipartisan sanctions bill – co-authored by Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and carrying the support of over 85 senators – had been gathering dust as the White House pursued its own diplomatic strategy with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
That barrier was decisively dropped Sunday night. Speaking to reporters, Trump – who recently sanctioned Russian energy giants Rosneft* and Lukoil – gave the legislation his blessing. “I hear they’re doing that, and that’s OK with me,” he said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64409
(*Rosneft is state-owned)
Looks like Putin and Trump have been holding secret talks, and a “28 point peace plan” has been agreed. No involvement from Ukraine or NATO/ Europe. What a **** show
I've only seen a small story in the torygraph, and then a copypasta in the daily mail, are there any other sources for this?
Original story was from Axios I think:
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff
Maybe Putin really does have that photo of Trump and "Bubba"
The 28 point plan got quite an airing on Radio 4 PM tonight. Suspect the same report might be on telly news too.
Complete waste of time, UKR won't agree to that, and rightly so. It's time the Tangerine ****waffle manned TFU and accepts he's backing the wrong horse.
on the bbc now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgdgrqwnq9o
Trump was always going to sell them out
I fail to see how Ukraine giving up land, weapons, etc is a fair deal for ending the war that the Russians started. Surely a better resolution for Ukraine would be the Russians returning to pre-invasion lines and giving up some of their weapons. Yes, that seems fair, hobble the aggressor instead of making the defender worse off and more open to another future invasion.
I've not even considered the Crimea question, but that might be a sticking point for Russia given the port/military complex and the number of oligarchs that have dachas there.
I'm also not even going to start on the fact that the peace plan was agreed by Cheeto and Putin without input of any sort from the people it impacts most.
It's not just about "fairness" either. It's about making it clear that further advances will be resisted.
Complete waste of time, UKR won't agree to that, and rightly so.
Given he's not after a peace deal, he's after a press release with 'peace deal' written on it. He absolutely can compell ukraine into signing something. Europe wont be ready in time (if ever) to backfill all the things the US is providing.
Ukraine will not and cannot accept those conditions. Trump will then turn on them (again) because it will upset his buddy/handler in the Kremlin and hinder his desire for a blingy Nobel gong to be pinned on him. Sadly predictable. Hopefully, European leaders can provide some balance.
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact yet again.
Ukraine will not and cannot accept those conditions.
If US support is withdrawn entirely (no US weapons - even via europe, no intel) then wont they have to?
If US support is withdrawn entirely (no US weapons - even via europe, no intel) then wont they have to?
It does look that way unfortunately.
USA have proved a basket case allowing Trump to very clearly position them with Russia - and Europe have demonstrated all their bad points when they should have been doing their best to step up. Even now the EU are stalling on allowing the UK to be part of their military reconstructioning.
Russia chancing their arm, again.
This lack of movement on their basic demands led to President Trump refusing to meet President Putin in Hungary last month.
What's different now is the inevitable taint attached to President Zelensky following the corruption plot by close confidants ^^. We'll see how the next polls look but the pot to weaken Zelensky is being stirred quite strongly
Keith Kellogg's retirement announcement will have encouraged Russia too
Putin always welcomes exposure on the world stage, with bonus points for it being in the EU, so losing the opportunity in Hungary will have hurt.
The WH freestyles so you get competing ideas leaking freely, none of which helps.
Ukraine will not and cannot accept those conditions.
If US support is withdrawn entirely (no US weapons - even via europe, no intel) then wont they have to?
Interesting point, but difficult to call.
A long-range strike into Russia was authorised on the 18th using US ATACMS for the first time in this presidency.
That's the one where Russia showed pics of ATACMS missiles claiming to have shot them down over Voronezh. They were airburst weapons that worked as advertised while the bulk of what's left fell out of the sky
Zeilinsky is tainted? What a joke ! The man is a practically angel compared to the Putin/Trump axis.
As for this so called peace plan, its identical to those previously rejected,
From Phillip O’Brien
“ It is important that people understand that this deal is Trump’s because of one thing. We now have evidence of exactly what Trump would like to see in a deal to end the war. For months there has been speculation, rumor, wild conjecture about what Trump wanted. Was he getting angry with Putin? Was he going to support Ukraine? Was he wanting to work with Europe? Now we know and the picture is not pretty.
Trump wants a peace deal that rewards Putin and punishes Ukraine. He wants a peace deal with no European input and which he can impose on Ukraine. He wants to get back to business with Putin as soon as possible and start making money. In sum, he does not care about democracy or freedom, indeed Trump wants to punish both. He wants to work with and reward a dictatorship—and now, finally, the media must acknowledge that.
Will he get his way? Maybe not. There are major possible roadblocks before this deal could become a reality. The Ukrainians might balk, European states might rally behind Ukraine and move away from the USA, or the very dysfunctional nature of the administration might cripple these plans. But that is for the future. For this moment we now know what Trump believes and wants. It is an ugly, disheartening picture.”
Sums it up well
As for this so called peace plan, its identical to those previously rejected,
It's not a peace plan, it's a list of Russian demands. Ukraine has rejected those before and will reject them again. The inevitable failure won't make Trump look like a peacemaker, it will just make him look weak. Trump hate's looking weak so I doubt this will make any difference to U.S. support for Ukraine.
Think I'll wait and see what actually happens/doesn't happen before thinking too much about this.
wise! there's probably an almighty bunfight happing behind the scenes. It's keloggs resignation thats concerning me as much as anything else
Russian oil price now $35 a barrel (below the cost of production)! They’re now importing petrol instead of exporting it, because of the destruction of their oil refineries. Putin remains a tactical genius 😉
Why can't other socio-political threads be more like this one. Informative with minimal friction.
Russia chancing their arm, again.
This lack of movement on their basic demands led to President Trump refusing to meet President Putin in Hungary last month.
This "peace plan" seems to be a move by Russia to once again push their agenda and demands by leaking their proposals.
If that fails then they've pushed a ceasefire a bit further down the road because everyone in the "west" is firefighting the announcement and Russia doesn't want a ceasefire.
This piece was published by the Kyiv Post this morning, the full article is worth reading,
"But in Washington, the more immediate question is who, exactly, is steering the administration’s diplomacy.
On one track sits the traditional foreign-policy team, anchored by acting National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Their message has been deliberately cautious: drafts exist, but no official plan has been formally announced, and any eventual agreement must emerge from a multilateral process that protects both Ukrainian, Russian, and US interests.""Enter the second track – the unofficial, fast-moving channel led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
Sources close to Witkoff not only confirmed that a full plan exists, but that it has already been delivered to both Kyiv and Moscow – even arguing that Witkoff has spent the past month quietly collecting views from both capitals.
They also accused Moscow of leaking its preferred version to shape the narrative – a claim that only sharpened questions about who is actually driving US policy.""“They took the same wish list Rubio shut down and found someone else in Washington willing to run with it,” the source claimed." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64660
The Witkoff/leak part refers to the proposals that were turned down by Rubio pre-Hungary, which led to the collapse of the talks between Presidents Putin and Trump.
Russia then proposed something similar to Witkoff, knowing that he'd just accept it and pass it up the chain. Russia then leaked that the proposals had been "accepted". There's more on this below (and no tittering at the back over Witkoff's nickname)
"Steve Witkoff appears to have fired off a private message publicly, mistakenly outing a story’s source in the process.
In a since-deleted reply post on X, the Trump envoy suggested that the reporting for a much-discussed Axios article about peace in Ukraine must have come from someone known as “K.”“He must have got this from K,” President Trump’s top negotiator wrote on Wednesday, apparently unaware he was tweeting rather than DMing."
"Journalist Michael Weiss promptly highlighted the blunder, posting a screenshot and noting, “Almost certainly this refers to Kirill Dmitriev, who is quoted in the story. But it seems the Russian side is leaking this for a reason. Also seems Dim Philby doesn’t know how Twitter works, but is nonetheless confident of his ability to end the war.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-envoy-mistakenly-blows-sources-cover-in-dm-fail/
The only real news to come from this is that the WH is considering various proposals and will push hard for peace once something acceptable has been parsed out of the discussions.
BBC reporting today.
Words fail me on how DJT is prepared to pull the rug / sell out Ukraine and reward russia who is clearly the aggressor. Katja Kallas who is also in the BBC article has seen it all before however....
More questions than answers again:
Ukraine rejects it, will the US end supplying weapons and support?
Can a European alliance provide support without the US
Can Zelensky talk Trump round ?
https://bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o
As part of its 20th sanction package proposals the EU will ask the "flag" countries for permission to board shadow fleet ships and will also ask them to deregister sanctioned shipping. This will affect insurance amongst other issues, meaning that states can exclude shadow fleet vessels from their waters and ports.
• EU seeks flag state permission to board shadow fleet vessels
• Ministers consider more regular ‘automated’ additions to EU sanctions lists
• States increasingly targeting third-country flag authorities as a route to add pressure on Russia shadow fleet
LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A billion-dollar money laundering network that operated across Britain* bought a controlling stake in a Kyrgyzstani bank to facilitate sanctions evasion and support Russia's war in Ukraine, Britain's National Crime Agency said on Friday.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/money-laundering-networks-lead-britain-russia-uk-says-2025-11-21/
*not only Britain, but includes "U.S., France, Spain and Ireland"
Hopefully serious jail time for those found guilty.
Ok, this peace plan.
On the one hand, Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO. On the other, the US promises a military response if Russia re-invades Ukraine.
Isn't this an obvious contradiction? If the US genuinely intends to honour the agreement to assist Ukraine, why wouldn't NATO membership just be allowed?
Surely this kind of hole in the agreement makes it obviously unserious?
The whole thing looks like it was written by a teenager
On the other, the US promises a military response if Russia re-invades Ukraine.
Does anyone actually trust the US any more ?
Trump, what a piece of sh*t. It's a near total sellout of Ukraine.
I hope Air Force flies up a huge alien anus whilst he's aboard.
He deserves to be a human laxative.
Well I guess this means Europe has to step up support and that means my taxes and yours. I'm in, are you?
Yet again,Putin's plaything delivers.
The best Russian asset..Eva
A loud pig of a human,trying to hide his turds with gold.
Well I guess this means Europe has to step up support and that means my taxes and yours. I'm in, are you?
Absolutely. The alternative is that all countries are potentially on their own if the proverbial hit the fan.
It's a terrible thing to see how NATO showed strength and solidarity only 12mths ago, and since the toxic oange turd has been on scene it's just fallen apart.
From what I have read USA are demanding Ukraine accept everything by next Thursday. As others have noted, it's all but a surrender for Ukraine that gives Russia practically everything it wanted, and also gives USA control of reconstructing Ukraine with also an additional guarantee of 50% of any profits they can't hide. Also it expects EU to throw €100 billion of their own money in too for USA to rob.
Someone described Trumps administration like 'joyriders', and that does seem apt: unskilled, reckless, ignoring rules and risks. They speed ahead without any regard for innocent people, creating chaos that can only end in an inevitable crash.
I'm not sure what else is needed to confirm that Trump is a Russian asset (if not directly then being exploited by compromising material). This isn't just a surrender to Russia; it's dividing Ukraine between Russia and the USA and has no guarantee of future security. It even returns Russia to the global table.
And bloody Starmer can't even criticise it. We don't need the USA, especially now they've taken to their isolationist policies, and should treat them in the same way we treat Russia: as a pariah. I'd be very willing to bet that in the event we ever need to use Trident weapons they won't fire without a US authorisation, so they effectively control our nuclear deterrent as well.
Waiting for politecameraaction to come along and tell me how Russia is actually a lovely friendly welcoming non-war-mongering democracy.
TLDR: Never in my most feverish nightmares did I expect this "peace plan" to be serious. None of this makes sense with President Trump’s recent pronouncements that peace should begin at the current front line, his application of sanctions on Russian energy, the authorisation of long-range US ATACMS strikes inside Russia, the resurrection of the Lindsay Graham's sanctions bill, etc.
The leverage against Russia is with Trump, e.g. Bloomberg reported that larger Indian oil refiners will refuse almost all Russian oil with imports becoming almost impossible under those sanctions
STW-ers have picked up on most of the dots and joined them correctly but the thick, fat Sharpie of life has suddenly lurched across the page.
VP JD Vance figures prominently in the "peace plan" process and is capable of sidelining US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, while whispering in Trump's ear about issues that would appeal to an artist of the deal.
Trump is aiming for a deal by Thanksgiving, next Thursday, with extensions if negotiations are "going well". This fits nicely with Nobel Peace Prize nominations closing on 31st January.
*************
The plan is clearly Trump-esque with land rental deals and US business opportunities enshrined and would be seen as a great package by him.
Russia (publicly, at least) has rejected the plan because it doesn't go far enough on sanctions relief, the size of Ukraine's military and borders, while it's gone too far on territory rental, reparations, etc. Russia would prefer to fight on
"Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands. Putin and other prominent Russian officials continue to reiterate publicly that Russia will achieve its war goals militarily. Putin reiterated on November 21 that Russia is open to achieving peace through diplomatic means but that Russia is “happy” to continue pursuing its war goals militarily."
"Other Russian officials are signaling more directly to the Russian populace that the 28-point peace deal is unacceptable for Russia. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov stated that a peace plan is not in Russia’s interests, given Russian advances in Ukraine, and claimed that Russia cannot trust the West to uphold the terms of the peace deal, including the point that NATO would not expand."
"Russian ultranationalist milbloggers also criticized the peace proposal as unsustainable and claimed that such a deal would lead to further confrontation in the future. The milbloggers broadly expressed support for continuing the war and claimed that the proposal does not benefit Russia and contains some unacceptable stipulations that must change."
"The Kremlin likely seeks to divide Ukraine from the United States such that Russia can continue its war against Ukraine without US and Western support and backing."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2025/
The plan appears to have been pushed through at a point when Ukraine is perceived to be at its weakest
The Trump administration believes the moment to pressure Ukraine into a peace agreement is at hand, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy particularly weak at home and plagued by a corruption scandal that poses the most direct threat to his leadership since Russia invaded in 2022.
“The Ukrainians will have to accept [the deal] given the weakness of Zelenskyy’s current position,” said a senior White House official, who, like others, in the story, was granted anonymity to discuss the negotiations. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/21/trump-ukraine-peace-deal-00665416
while this extreme pressure and side-lining of leading members of the administration appears to have back-fired in Congress
The pressure campaign has united critics across the political spectrum, creating a rare moment of bipartisan alarm over the White House’s strategy to force an end to the war.
It is a rare moment when voices from Capitol Hill, foreign-policy veterans, European capitals, and Ukrainian civil society align so neatly – and when all of them, in some form, warn that Washington is careening toward a diplomatic dead end.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64750"There was no coordination, no one at State had seen this, not Rubio," another U.S. official said. The official added that the plan contains material that the secretary of state had previously rejected. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-officials-meeting-with-russian-miami-spurs-questions-about-latest-ukraine-2025-11-22/
In April 2024 JD Vance argued for conditions that echo this plan. He also accused Ukraine in February's WH ambush that it was leading "propaganda tours" of Russian destruction
In a New York Times op-ed released in April 2024, Vance argued that America shouldn’t help Ukraine, citing the burden of producing weapon systems like 155 mm shells and Patriot missiles. He suggested that the U.S. should pressure Ukraine to surrender territory it has lost to Russia and claimed that supporting Ukraine “doesn’t add up.”
https://kyivindependent.com/come-to-bucha-jd-vance/
He's said that everyone else misunderstands the current plan
US Vice President JD Vance, who is deemed to be leading the US effort alongside Driscoll, framed the administration’s approach in a Friday night tweet.
He emphasized that any peace plan must halt the fighting while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty, be acceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow, and minimize the risk of renewed conflict.
“Every criticism of the peace framework the administration is working on either misunderstands the framework or misstates some critical reality on the ground,” Vance wrote, adding that peace “might be made by smart people living in the real world.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64751
Who gains from a US led into political isolation from Ukraine, Europe and NATO? It doesn't seem to be shaping up well for Trump so far
Two things struck me, more about the timing, (and I do't know if they've been mentioned before) one- yet another Epstein distraction? and two- Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are starting to have a real impact in Russia, particulary with the public. Is this a possible sign of weakness in Putin, and he's called his mate/asset and given him the green light?
Thanks @timba, its not an understatement when I say that I rely on your posts for updates. Often more concise and informative than the mainstream news.
Thanks Timba
I’m hoping Zelenskyy does something radical such as putting the peace plan to the Ukrainian people in a plebiscite and letting them decide.
Blimey, even the Nicotine-stained man-frog has opposed the latest "deal"...
Farage: Trump’s Ukraine deal ‘not acceptable’
Neither zylinsky or Putin has agreed the deal.
Neither zylinsky or Putin has agreed the deal.
Trumps deadline threat only applies to Ukraine though..
Shame on USA for allowing Trump to be doing what he is. I don't think any countries will trust the USA again in my lifetime.
It doesn't seem to be shaping up well for Trump so far
not sure he sees it that way, he'll get his press release labelled 'peace deal' and a bunch of personal enrichment opportunities. By the time it inevitably unravels he'll be long gone
not sure he sees it that way, he'll get his press release labelled 'peace deal' and a bunch of personal enrichment opportunities. By the time it inevitably unravels he'll be long gone
How' s his Israel deal looking?
Shame on USA for allowing Trump to be doing what he is. I don't think any countries will trust the USA again in my lifetime.
Same.
We met two Californians the week we were on hol in S Fife. They were in equal parts utterly ashamed of, and appalled by, what their compatriots had done. And that was back in July when we chatted. It'd be very interesting to talk to them again now.
I can't find it now but I think I saw a report suggesting that a Republican has tabled a motion to hit Russia, and more importantly, countries still doing business with Russia, with sweeping sanctions and sanctions.
Sounds like his "peace" plan doesn't have as much support in his party as he likes to pretend.
Not googled it but isn't that Lindsey Graham. Bit of an old style right wing republican but from the Reganite wing rather than MAGA.
It increasingly looks like this car crash of a "peace plan" is going nowhere. Seemingly Rubio admitted to a load of senators in private that it wasn't a US plan, but a wish list passed by the Russians (Kiril probably) and rebadged without change as a US "peace plan". Rubio has since denied that, but bun fighting over it in Washington, Europeans pushing back and even the Russians saying it is a no go mean it won't fly. As it in effect called for a complete capitulation by Ukraine, Zelensky could never have accepted it either.
I didn't think I could despise the current US administration any more, but they have truly plumbed the depths with this pro-Russian stitch up.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but, we may see Trumps fall happen very quickly and spectacularly. We are hearing more dissent, and hinting at the same concerns of Russian influence, coming from Republican voices.
MTG, one of the most hateful of the MAGA cult has accused Trump out loud of being on the side of money and also slipped in foreign leaders .. did she mean Russia?
"If I am cast aside by MAGA Inc and replaced by Neocons, Big Pharma, Big Tech, Military Industrial War Complex, foreign leaders, and the elite donor class that can't even relate to real Americans, then many common Americans have been cast aside and replaced as well.There is no ‘plan to save the world’ or insane 4D chess game being played."
I'll continue to wish USA remove Trump asap, and make an example of him. Nathan Gill I suspect was just a very low level Russian mouth piece - Trump appears to be their top asset. Hopefully Trump faces a similar downfall which takes every cent of the Trump family fortune as warning to any others considering following the same path.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but, we may see Trumps fall happen very quickly and spectacularly.
Yeah, wishful thinking I'm afraid. Trump has high approval ratings compared with most European leaders, and the folks electing him don't give that much of a crap about Ukraine. Or Gaza. Or anywhere else beyond their back yard.
Yeah, wishful thinking I'm afraid. Trump has high approval ratings compared with most European leaders, and the folks electing him don't give that much of a crap about Ukraine. Or Gaza. Or anywhere else beyond their back yard.
I don't claim to know much of USA politics, and hoping again USA politics and approval ratings aren't the same as UK/European.
However from what I read Trump has the lowest approval ratings of his 2nd term at the moment, and his 2nd term has been the lowest of any modern day presidents. With mid terms a year away and Trump alienating his base more each day/week, and his policies causing nothing but chaos .. I'm hoping (again!) there will be Republicans concerned enough to know that Trump will likely make them redundant for life if they continue to sit back.
With mid terms a year away and Trump alienating his base more each day/week, and his policies causing nothing but chaos .. I'm hoping (again!) there will be Republicans concerned enough to know that Trump will likely make them redundant for life if they continue to sit back.
I think that many Republicans are trying to find a way to come out of this on the right side of history - too little, too late, like MTG, but the mood among the less insane majority (all things being relative) seems to be changing. Some for their own personal ambitions, and some, maybe, have realised that this time around he is unchecked, more chaotic, more dangerous, and a genuine risk to the US and wider world.
I wonder if there is less desire to invoke the 25th simply because they feel that with Vance as next in line, it might be frying pan and fire. But if the Dems take charge after the midterms, could they impeach Trump and Vance together - two cheeks of the same arse? Not sure how their weird system operates
But if the Dems take charge after the midterms, could they impeach Trump and Vance together
I never saw such wild optimism as here on this thread 🙂