I would have expected a kind of pause whilst they stabilise the liberated areas and get infrastructure sorted to some degree before building for another move.
Ukraine are not going to accept a ceasefire and they aren’t going to let other countries pressure them into accepting one.
But the reality is they might have to - as good as the Ukraine army has shown themselves to be in defending their country and conducting some recent counter-attacks they will be increasingly reliant on Western military aid to mount and sustain counter-attacks. If that military aid dries up because Ukraine refuses to compromise they don't have much chance of evicting the Russian army. It would be shit if Western support did become contingent on that but lets be real - with the political leaders we have it's not exactly an impossible scenario.
Elsewhere, Ukraine have been making incremental advances in Kherson region, incremental advances towards Lyman, and still using longer range stuff to try and disrupt Russian logistics behind the front lines. But it gets tougher from here - Russia has occupied much of this territory since 2014, hence plenty of time to bed in, and the whole southern area is kind of hidden/protected by a giant lake/river.
Still pretty heavy fighting around Lyman & I think Kherson? but to properly consolidate all the area they've just recaptured will take time , also to rest requip troops etc.
The Kharkiv offensive was a plan worked out and consulted with US & others be nice to think Russia will collapse again shortly on other fronts
Looks like Russia are desperate to send in these conscripts asap so Ukraine can't take advantage of current weakened & depleted troops
Problem for Russia is that current troops must be desperate to be rotated out by now
Have Ukraines advances stalled? Not heard of any great gains in recent days.
They'll be consolidating the territory they recaptured and planning their next moves. It's not possible to keep pushing forward at the speed we saw last week. They've destroyed Russian logistics so the Russian troops will be short of food and ammo, the longer Ukraine starves them, the more desperate the Russians will be to escape when the next offensive starts.
As dictators go he has been enjoying considerable popularity from the Russian people...
His popularity hasn't been great for several years. He was initially very popular with older folk because he raised pensions, but in 2018 he raised the pension age. Women, who retired at 55, had that age increased to 63. He then climbed down to 60. Men, with an average life expectancy of only 67, had to work to 65.
Russia has twice the percentage of pensioners (~20%) of the worldwide 10% average and almost no hope of employment as an older person. He was accused of sliding the pensions news out under cover of the World Cup, held in Russia.
By 2018 sanctions over the invasion of Crimea had been in for a few years as well, although nothing like as harsh as the current round
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been almost killed by poisoning and jailed more than ten times in the last decade
Looks like Russia are desperate to send in these conscripts asap so Ukraine can’t take advantage of current weakened & depleted troops
Problem for Russia is that current troops must be desperate to be rotated out by now
Yep, the new troops won't be building up a bigger army, they'll just be rotating out the burnt out remnants of the units that were sent in back in February.
Interesting point from Christo Grozev of Bellingcat here:
Read somewhere last week that if Russia really does collapse into internal strife the two factions best placed to pick up the pieces are Prigozhin with Wagner and the Kadyrovites, essentially 2 warlords with famously brutal private armies, that will get very grim very fast.
The Ukraine advance has slowed but they're not turning down the heat in the South, Kherson is still very much still on the menu. The failure of any of the Russian counter attacks to push them back from recently gained territory suggests the Ukr forces have avoided overreach and have consolidated well too.
UKR will be resting, rotating, resupplying and working to extend their logistics lines. Each advance adds double the advanced distance for the logistics trucks to travel.
I think I read that UKR has regained an area the equivalent of Cyprus in the last month, so only about 46,000 sq miles to go 🙂
The troops who can smell home must surely be doing all they can to keep out of harm's way.
On a side note, if Ukraine retake all the breakaway territories are they going to end up with a Northern Ireland scenario?
Better to let them go in the long run?
"breakaway"?
It could be argued that Russia created a 'Northern Ireland scenario' when it invaded those areas in 2014.
That said, it could further be argued that Ukraine created a 'Northern Ireland scenario' when it seceded in 1991.
And I don't know which would be closer to the truth!
Those mobilised RA reservists are being deployed directly into BTGs in Ukraine to replace other front line troops - they won’t receive much/any individual or collective training, just expected to pick up a uniform and weapon and get on with it just as winter starts to roll in, they’ll be sitting in unheated steel boxes, probably stuck in mud waiting to be picked off. I’d question whether the militias in the Donbas are seriously “dug in” or maybe that’s they’ve told the generals, they’ve simply pocketed the cash to build hardened positions and given the troops a few shovels like the rest of the RA.
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1572981536391327744?s=20&t=wyk-Se9yz-EvISdeYubN_Q
2-3 weeks training? They're not long for this world.
My lad is 16 tomorrow, this video makes me sad.
Yeah, it's awful stuff, but the only thing that will stop this madness is its reality of pointless, brutal deaths of young men being brought home to wider Russian society.
if Ukraine retake all the breakaway territories are they going to end up with a Northern Ireland scenario?
Both Donbas and Luhansk regions contain a large % of Russian speakers, but voted overwhelmingly in favour of UKR independence in an actual referendum a number of years ago, not a sham one as proposed by the Russians. Crimea - much closer, but still in favour (54% I think), as its naval facilities have meant a lot more native Russians settling there.
WRT Nuclear weapons, if Putin used them he’d have no intention of tactical use, it would be against a city - terrorism as per usual. He knows no other way.
If the Ukrainians want to win over the Russian people/conscripts then offer them safe passage away from the front line and let them call home to tell their loved ones they are safe and being looked after.
Overly simplistic I know but better than slaughtering thousands of folk and more likely to help turn the tide in Russia
The Ukrainians are offering anyone who surrenders good treatment, Geneva convention protection and the choice to return to Russia or not. I suspect Putin's regime will not be kind to those that surrender.
More brilliant media ops, humour and trolling from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1572947574016933888?s=20&t=9LqdD5VQRnjm0k-DM3QKIQ
They are definitely winning the meme war!
^^ They have proven genius with their online media war haven't they?👍
Utterly brilliant 🙂
WRT Nuclear weapons, if Putin used them he’d have no intention of tactical use, it would be against a city – terrorism as per usual. He knows no other way.
A lot of things have surprised me do far in this war but I'd be very surprised if Russia used nuclear weapons. I would not be surprised at all if they use chemical/biological weapons when things get desperate.
^^ Good article that.
Many of the men have no military past at all, ethnic minorities being targeted the most and a real lack of ambition to get into the fight.
Putin really is desperate. Interesting times.
Both Donbas and Luhansk regions contain a large % of Russian speakers, but voted overwhelmingly in favour of UKR independence in an actual referendum a number of years ago
The elections in 2019 demonstrated little support for pro Russian or far right candidates. What little pro Russian support there was was actually in the far West not the East.
Is anyone else concerned that Putin might herd all these mobilised "troops" together somewhere in the occupied Donbas, then whack them with a false-flagged battlefield nuke, trying to pin it on Ukraine?
You might, retort "He's not that crazy!", but I fear he probably is.
The Ukrainians must be shitting themselves knowing that 300,000 fresh Russians are headed their way.
https://twitter.com/TolomeoNews/status/1572834289187700736
From that Gaurdian article
“You’re fighting for your children’s future,” shouted the woman, who was not identified, in front of a crowd outside a municipal building.“We don’t have a present, what kind of future are you talking about?” a man in the crowd responded.
Is the kind of sentiment that leads to a very bad place for the RF.
The Ukrainians must be shitting themselves knowing that 300,000 fresh Russians are headed their way.
Scared, undisciplined, badly led troops, in all likelihood with access to alcohol = war crimes.
*more warcrimes
China has made it clear that a lengthy war in Ukraine is not their preference, while standing with Russia they are also treading the international tightrope
The difficulty will be in how Russia interprets this; walk away (not likely), or pile more resources into a conventional war that will be damaging both politically and militarily
The likely accession of the right-wing coalition to power in Italy next week includes Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi who are both admirers of President Putin. Salvini is openly critical of sanctions and Berlusconi expressed thoughts in May of a deal with Russia, “Europe should… try to persuade Ukraine to accept Putin’s demands” https://bilyonaryo.com/2022/05/29/berlusconis-bad-break-up-with-putin-reveals-italy-russia-ties/money/
I know they are different conflicts but it's ironic that Russia broke the German army at Stalingrad during the winter and it looks like hubris and winter will break the Russian army in Ukraine.
they don’t have much chance of evicting the Russian army
Given the rock bottom morale of the Russian troops already 5-6 months into a war they're clearly not winning, and soon having thousands of untrained, unsupported new recruits swelling the ranks in an army that cannot supply the troops already there. I think if winter is harsh, they might just "evict" themselves.
Is anyone else concerned that Putin might herd all these mobilised “troops” together somewhere in the occupied Donbas, then whack them with a false-flagged battlefield nuke, trying to pin it on Ukraine?
Ukraine doesn't have nukes, they signed them away after Russia, the UK and others signed a treaty agreeing Ukraines sovereignty and independence.
Then Russia took Crimea and we all went "what treaty?"
I think a lot hinges on this winter for many reasons
A cold winter will send gas prices rocketing and even tho many countries have stored up gas (not UK !) will still lead to hardship
Will also be punishing for Ukrainian civilians with damaged infrastructure targeted by Russia
But it would also be deadly for Russian conscripts, I'll equipped and under supplied with their logistics routes constantly being damaged by Ukrainian attacks
even tho many countries have stored up gas (not UK !)
Remember that only about 3% of our gas came from russia, about 50% is from the north sea (from our own supply), a further 33% comes form Norway, the rest is from other sources such as importing LNG from Qatar..
The situation is different from countries like Germany that lack a large scale domestic energy resource (bar Coal), have leant heaviliy on importing gas from Russia and have lower access to renewables.
Bit of an oversimplifiction here but remember that the cost and actual supply are different, We are getting hit by the rising costs of energy as gas is priced via the global market which is getting hit from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia.
As it stands it looks like the Russian economy is now in freefall, China, India and Turkey are stepping back from them both politically and, most likely soon economically. I dont think Syria, North Korea or Bellarus have a spare few trillion Rubles stuffed down the back of the sofa to help matters. The RU millitary is in pieces, and the plan now is to send tens of thousands of poorly led, untrained and under-equipped conscripts into a war zone and hope for the best.
My gut feeling is that the large scale conscription and partial mobilisation has been done by Putin not to win the war in Ukraine but instead as an attempt to prevent a large scale uprising/revolution/coup in Russia.
TBH, I think that has been the reason all along for this whole sorry escapade.
I had a good chat with a friend in Moscow this morning.
Six months ago he was ashamed about what was happening. He is a progressive guy who has worked for western companies all of his life.
Now he claims he reads Telegram for independent news everyday but he is no longer critical of his government. The main things I picked up from him.
Cars are the main issue in daily life as they cannot get new ones and repairs are hard
Lots of work for engineers working on military aims
Not feeling the effects of the war in Moscow and no one in his circle affected by the mobilisation. He heard they were getting four weeks training and they will not go near the front lines.
The escalation is being pushed by the West
The USA is wanting this war (he does use that word at least) to last as long as possible
Russia has not stopped gas supplies it is Europe who do not want it. Russians get gas cheaper than they used to and European governments are making big profits by doubling the price for their people
Russia has liberated these areas of Ukraine
I countered much of the above but it wasn't sinking in. Still some way to go before reality hits home I think.
My gut feeling is that the large scale conscription and partial mobilisation has been done by Putin not to win the war in Ukraine but instead as an attempt to prevent a large scale uprising/revolution/coup in Russia.
TBH, I think that has been the reason all along for this whole sorry escapade.
May well be some truth in this. Certainly the latter part. It's straight out of the kleptocratic dictator playbook, when you've stolen and corrupted everything you need new markets to violate. Plus you have some edgy Asian rebublics, no harm in reminding them what you're capable of.
Of course nobody thought it'd go this badly. Best get all the potential troublemakers off the streets and somewhere you can indoctrinate and keep tabs on them. And chuck the worst of them into the front line because why not?
In the meantime continue to threat and bluster and pray - really pray 🙏 - that the West loses its resolve before your position becomes untenable..
I've found India's and China's stance pretty deplorable from the outset. The EU and the US need to wean themselves away from reliance on these states.
The EU and the US need to wean themselves away from reliance on these states.
Tricky. We don't have enough people to fill the jobs we do now without on-shoring the all the medium tech and consumer electronics manufacturing.
True but I'm sure there are potential skills in Europe similar to Skoda's (VW) in the Czech Republic and SEAT's in Spain.
the trouble with the western economy is it relies on people on extremely low wages to make stuff for us for low prices. Those people live in countries that will do the right thing by these people on extremely low wages, for example by buying fuel as cheaply as possible and trading with countries who may be doing unspeakable things in order to support their internal economy and keep their low-waged populations working. They don't have the luxury of a choice to bump up energy prices by 100%
We could reduce reliance on these countries, but our standards of living would drop significantly - we'd probably see clothes prices rise by 5x (approx guess, given US-made jeans are £50 a pop and far-east made jeans are a tenner). I don't think there is support for that kind of change.
A skilled IT worker in India with a few years experience has a wrapped-up cost (wage, building, taxes, etc) of around a quarter of the equivilent worker in the US
