We’ve always had a very small army
Which apparently greatly impressed Adolf Hitler. I believe that Hitler used Britain as an example and inspiration of how to hold onto an empire with the minimum amount of boots on the ground....... have local indigenous leaders to do most of the dirty work for you and occasionally carry out massacres to remind conquered peoples not to get too shirty.
Although I think the Romans perfected that strategy a couple of thousand years earlier.
holy thread drift Batman!
Did the Romans invent aircraft carriers?
The Greeks first used big catapults, which were developed further by the Romans, but I thought that it was the Brits who first stuck one on a ship and launched an aircraft
In actual news about Ukraine, the US has relaxed rules on US contractors working on US Government-supplied kit in Ukraine
Previously, US contractors could only work on kit supplied privately by that contractor https://www.reuters.com/world/pentagon-lifts-ban-contractors-inside-ukraine-fix-us-supplied-weapons-2024-11-08/
Keep relaxing the rules 🙂
but I thought that it was the Brits who first stuck one on a ship and launched an aircraft
Pedant mode, technically it was the yanks I believe but I think the UK were the furst to really develop the idea.
Sorry for OT.
Keep relaxing the rules ?
Agreed and time is of the essence here.
Trump adviser says Ukraine focus must be peace not retaking territory
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o
"And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you're on your own."
FFS, that's never been asked for. Is Crimea realistically winnable for Ukraine? That's a valid question though.
Trump has said in both the debates that he’ll have the war ended BEFORE he takes office on the 20th January. Presumably he has concepts of a plan, the only problem is that conducting foreign policy outside of government is somewhat illegal, but I suppose that’s never stopped him.
Don’t forget he lies his tits off. He did was he was president last time.
Edit : Wrong thread!
With the capabilities of modern aircrafts no country needs any aircraft carriers to protect themselves from foreign aggression.
I'm glad you're not in charge of defense. Look at it this way; do you think it would be better to fight your enemy off their coastline, or yours?
I’m glad you’re not in charge of defense. Look at it this way; do you think it would be better to fight your enemy off their coastline, or yours?
The nuances of defence are often lost on the armchair strategist.
I guess force projection, like the tank is an outdated concept. ?
The whole military is pretty outdated now.
If putin had saved money by giving every Ukrainian who had been a soviet citizen a pension he would have a friendly neighbour and the worlds undying admiration.
China is taking over the world without (so far) firing a shot.
I guess force projection, like the tank is an outdated concept. ?
What the Ukraine war has taught us is the value of drones; force projection making every ship an aircraft/missile carrier rather than one big fat target that costs a fortune.
So yes, aircraft carriers, but not like the current behemoths
The big powers argue over who owns insignificant islands, they're permanent aircraft carriers for force projection. China has built artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago, hence the west asserting the right to free navigation by sailing warships through the S.China Sea (legally, you can't declare a territorial exclusion around a naturally submerged reef with an airfield on top)
Main Battle Tanks (MBTs)? Now there's a debate that the Ukraine war has also ignited. It's fair to say that MBTs aren't being used as envisaged behind artillery and air cover and combined with well-drilled ground forces. The ground conditions further east aren't as good as the big roads of western Europe either
Lighter armoured fighting vehicles OTH are extremely valuable in many scenarios and they're way more portable
The lessons from Ukraine for me: Lots, Lighter, Cheaper and Quick to manufacture
I imagine that in the near future massive aircraft carriers will be replaced by many more much smaller, cheaper, faster, drone swarm carriers.
Stuff like the ukraine naval drones that they've modified to lay mines and shoot rockets. Imagine what the tech will be capable of in 10 years time.
I tend to agree with the poster above, Russia could probably have bought its way to influence in ukraine with its vast natural reserves but chose the route of war.
Rubble collapses to 100 a dollar. Interest rates at 21%, soon to be higher, inflation at somewhere like 25%. Gasprom loosing billions.
I imagine that in the near future massive aircraft carriers will be replaced by many more much smaller, cheaper, faster, drone swarm carriers.
It's all rather worrying, the RN T45 destroyers carry 48 SAM's.
They cost about £900k each.
They have been used recently to shoot down drones that cost something like 10k each.
The system cannot be reloaded at sea.
Send a load of drones, say 60, then send your attack aircraft and it would seem that's pretty much job done.
With the capabilities of modern aircrafts no country needs any aircraft carriers to protect themselves from foreign aggression.
I’m glad you’re not in charge of defense. Look at it this way; do you think it would be better to fight your enemy off their coastline, or yours?
Well I'm glad that I'm not too!
If you are telling me that the UK needs aircraft carriers to repel an attack from, say Russia, then it is even more complex than I had begun to imagine it was! I had assumed that modern military aircraft could reach as far as the Russian coastline.
Won't fellow NATO allies such as Germany and Poland allow the UK warplanes to be stationed on their soil? If not what's the point of NATO?
Pity the vast majority of countries in the world that have no costly aircraft carriers and are presumably therefore at serious risk of foreign aggression. Although they obviously have more money to spend on other equally important stuff.
What the Ukraine war has taught us is the value of drones
You need to add "when you haven't achieved air supremacy" Same with the discussion about Tanks. Russia (like the CCCP before it) uses tanks in a very different way to NATO/western forces, and I think what we've seen in Ukraine is that that doctrine doesn't work well. Tanks in pretty much all western armed forces are co-ordinated with artillery, air fores and ground troops in a way that Russia's aren't - they just send them in either en-masse in an uncoordinated attack, or in smaller single or multiple units, but still generally left to fend for themselves. They rely on numbers rather than anything else. You can't really look at what's happened to Russian tanks and apply that to all tanks.
then it is even more complex than I had begun to imagine it was!
Well, you've learned something then, haven't you?
Send a load of drones, say 60, then send your attack aircraft and it would seem that’s pretty much job done.
Yep - you wouldn't even need the attack aircraft. I don't think our current fleet isn't sustainable given the way drones have come into play. They need an equally cheap and readily available way of defending themselves. Maybe we will see drone wars in the future - swarms of attack drones trying to get past swarms of anti-drone drones.
In fact the actual ships become even less important, you'd be better off launching a whole bunch of drones from several small cheap fast ships and have all the operators sat safely miles from the conflict.
You could even have the drone swarms on subs, surface, deploy drones, slip away.
I think the modern navy in our life time is going to be completely re-imagined - if not lets hope it never gets into a real conflict
I'm sure the boffins are all over it and analysing how ukraine has neutralised the russian black sea fleet
Its all a bit sci-fi really.
Back on topic, the reporting from the front lines isn't sounding great for ukraine. Its all going to kick off in kursk soon, apparently those 10k NK troops are already engaged and Russia advancing in several places on other fronts. I'm starting to feel ukraine can't hold on much longer
Maybe we will see drone wars in the future – swarms of attack drones trying to get past swarms of anti-drone drones.
Drones are easily defeated by electronic counter measures. Any FPV drone is controlled by electronic signals and they can be interrupted and if you can't guide your drone, or it can't receive a signal then it's useless and it'll fall out of the sky. Again, don't apply what you're watching in Ukraine to wider conflicts or other armed forces, both are behaving they way they are because 1. Russian (and by extension; ex-soviet) military hardware, training, and tactics turn out to be a pile of dog-shit, and 2, Ukraine doesn't have the manpower, experience, strategic knowledge or weaponry to take advantage of that in a way that other modern military forces maybe could.
I’m starting to feel ukraine can’t hold on much longer
However bad it is for Ukraine, it's worse for Russia. Their doctrine calls for lots and lots of troops and lots and lots of tanks, and they've pretty much started to run out of both. The tactics they've used thus far, and it doesn't look like they can change, aren't going to work without the quantities they're reliant on.
True, to some extent, they are developing (and maybe using?) drones that don't need to be operated and use on board AI to hit their targets. So short of some sort of EMP (if that exists) I can't see how you will stop those without physically disabling them.
And I am sure Russia is hurting too, however much they are, they are still taking ground and pulling in troops from other countries - who is ukraine going to turn to to rustle up another 10k troops for the front line? I imagine that 10k from NK is just the start as Russia tries to pull in troops from its allies
The Russians already operate ECM against drones and I've seen footage by TV channels of Ukrainian drones being lost as they encounter these systems. I dunno about AI drones, if they use they same sorts of electronics, then they're equally vulnerable I suppose.
The most effective weapons the Russians have developed seem to be glide bombs. Launched by SU34s and TU22 from inside Russian airspace, they can glide up to 100's of KM and are pretty precise, I thought it was against these sorts of weapons that the F-16 would be deployed, but I've not seen any evidence yet,
Russian casualties have soared to 1950 yesterday and similar levels previously.
I’ve seen dozens of smoking dead Russian tanks with electronic countermeasures on them, which have been totally useless. Also the turtle tanks have been worse than useless!
Won’t fellow NATO allies such as Germany and Poland allow the UK warplanes to be stationed on their soil?
IIRC correctly Italy were charging us £1m/day for using their airfields during the fracas in Libya, when we were 'between aircraft carries'. You can argue about whether the intervention in Libya was a good idea or not but it would undoubtedly have been better with carriers.
You need to add “when you haven’t achieved air supremacy
We need to redefine "air supremacy" first, starting within the context of drones.
Ukraine has arguably achieved "Air Superiority" under the existing definition. You could go further and say that the "opposing air force is incapable of effective interference", i.e. "Air Supremacy" (
)
Drones are easily defeated by electronic counter measures. Any FPV drone is controlled by electronic signals and they can be interrupted and if you can’t guide your drone, or it can’t receive a signal then it’s useless and it’ll fall out of the sky.
AI and modern optics, hard-wired into each drone. Cruise missiles already compare visual cues to pre-programmed mapping
I thought that was not the case – more that Russians are happy to lob them at a city and *anything* hit is OK by them.
They are reasonably accurate, but Russia has tended to develop "wings" for bigger warheads rather than increase accuracy on a smaller warhead. One or two of four 500kg bombs are likely to be more accurate than one 3 tonne bomb. The other two or three are in the *anything* hit is OK category.
Circular error of probability (CEP) isn't for any individual bomb, it's a statistical analysis of many ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable ) and the bigger weapons are likely to be worse
"Fighterbomber* claims the new FAB-1500M-54-UGCM is accurate to 15 yards. “We consider these numbers to be exaggerated,” the independent Conflict Intelligence Team stated." (*a Russian Telegram channel) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/07/russias-got-a-giant-new-glide-bomb/?sh=5a90edcc5ea5
The smaller 500kg bombs can also travel further, which makes the aircraft safer due to the greater range for Ukraine's AD to interception. Aircrews are therefore less likely to be concerned about AD and so rush the release. To impart maximum range the aircraft needs to zoom upwards, which makes for a target aircraft free of ground clutter and showing its greatest area to radar
AI and modern optics, hard-wired into each drone.
which then defeats the purpose of them being cheap and easily manufactured in large numbers, they're a different thing to infantry fielded quick and easily deployed light battlefield weapons.
Well, you’ve learned something then, haven’t you?
It's one of the main reasons I come to stw.
IIRC correctly Italy were charging us £1m/day for using their airfields during the fracas in Libya, when we were ‘between aircraft carries’. You can argue about whether the intervention in Libya was a good idea or not but it would undoubtedly have been better with carriers.
The rotary assets were carrier based. We didn't have any carrier fixed-wing aircraft so even if HMSQE/PW were about, they'd have had pretty empty decks.
AI and modern optics, hard-wired into each drone
How this plays out will likely inform the coming conversations to consider the legal parameters governing their use, for NATO in the future.
Some interesting briefing papers from the IRC and UN in circulation on this topic.
This analysis suggests Russia will start struggling economically late next year.
So the same prediction as last year then ?.
Were you going to suggest the Russian economy isn't struggling?
And the year before that...
That would be 2022 when problems were acknowledged by Russia
“Russia’s economy is experiencing serious blows,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with foreign journalists. “But there is a certain margin of safety, there is potential, there are some plans, work is underway.” https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/02/business/russia-markets-economy-sberbank/index.html
The Russian economy began to falter way before that in 2013. Russia took Crimea in 2014 and GDP alone lost a third of its value to 2020
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, against the backdrop of Russia’s market-rate GDP losing a third of its value between 2013 and 2020, represents a doubling down of Putin’s strategy to seek legitimacy from “great power status,” rather than economic performance. https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-for-collapse-178605
It's clear that economies don't fail overnight and an article written in 2022 doesn't mean that failure will happen within a couple of years. The point of the article linked to by thols2 is...
Implicit in this argument is the view that Russia has the ability to sustain the war for many years to come. On close examination of the evidence, however, the narrative that Russia has the resources to prevail if it so chooses does not hold.
The assessment for 14th November by ISW also focuses on economic and industrial production https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-14-2024
The Russian economy in terms of global economies is the Alex Jones of the podcast space.
Sadly an optimistic view since that turds influence has been massively curtailed. Would be fun to see the Onion buy out Russia though. Probably be a worryingly well run country.
Ultimately there are enough other countries profiting from sanctions evasion and the western powers arent willing to really try and break that.
Good sky article on it.
With the relaxed approach to elections and the habit of anyone who seriously opposes Putin to fall out of a window they are going to be able to keep going with a wartime economy indefinitely. Its the classic Hemingway quote about going bankrupt "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
Some point it will fail but who knows when and its possible they will outlast Ukraine especially whats happened in the USA.
On the economic front...last gas to much of Europe this year.
Another 10 billion dollars a year Russia and Gazprom won’t be getting ;))
I found this an interesting, short read on the effects returning Russian soldiers, many of them hardened criminals, are having when they return to civilian life.
So many unknown butterfly effects of this brutal war that are going to appear over the years to come.
Russia's soldiers bringing wartime violence back home
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e7vl01gngo
Apparently Biden has given go ahead for long range weapon use in Kursk, maybe beyond.
About god damned time.
Hopefully Storm Shadows soon, America was able to veto their use (I'm pretty sure) as they contain some US tech.
Cue Putin no doubt issuing his usual word salad about "proportionate responses" with a smidgen of "we have nukes" shit and red lines. Yawn.
That's a bit late in the day, but very welcome nonetheless. Ukraine's power network got absolutely mullered again today in another massive strike. 10 people killed and a cynical attempt to freeze and blackout the civilian population as they go into winter. The ability for Ukraine to strike back at some of the bases, infrastructure and hardware that enables these attacks is most welcome.
Think it's more about preserving the bridgehead in kursk, which I'm not sure will have the leverage needed to get the settlement they want. whilst embarrassing for Putin it has a shelf life. How long can Ukraine sustain that bargaining chip? I hope they've got another ace up their sleeve.
Apparently Biden has given go ahead for long range weapon use in Kursk, maybe beyond.
I cant help but wonder if thats just a parting gift for Trump to deal with the fallout(pun) of.
Hopefully yes, Trump left Biden to deal with Afghanistan.
I cant help but wonder if thats just a parting gift for Trump to deal with the fallout(pun) of.
It's a response to Russian escalation. I think that we forget that Russia has been doing the escalation AND controlling the narrative:
Illegal occupation of Crimea
Illegal invasion of Donbas
Illegal invasion of the rest of Ukraine
Threats of nuclear weapons (several times)
War crimes, including destroying civilian infrastructure, targeting civilian population, use of chemical weapons, execution/maltreatment of PoWs, kidnapping children, etc.
Recruiting an army from a third country (N.Korea)
It's time that this was stopped
Fingers crossed this well let Ukraine do something about the air strips Russia's been launching those damn glide bombs from.
Those have been bedevilling Ukraine for the last year and are a huge part of why they've been losing ground as they were air launched from deep inside Russia and there was no way of countering them.
Included in war crimes but let’s not forget
Torture
the deliberate destruction of that massive dam and subsequent flooding
targeting of hospitals, inc a children’s hospital
This isn’t an escalation. Ukraine should have had this capability all along, the fact that they’ve had to wait so long is on Biden. His Ukraine policy has been totally inadequate.
And still Sholtz won't release Taurus.
the fact that they’ve had to wait so long is on Biden. His Ukraine policy has been totally inadequate.
And yet, it'll soon be seen as some kind of lost golden period once Trump's cronies and Putin apologists get into office next year.
Various sources I read about why the Germans aren't sending Taurus:
lack of trust that it could be used to strike sensitive places
want to keep them to protect Germany
like before they want another country/US to provide something similar first so it's not them doing the escalating
A chap on the Newsagents has just said that they are only for use against the North Koreans in Kursk at the moment.
Biden knows that soon he will no longer be able to comprehend or to enjoy his own existence so what better way then to have entourage to accompany him into the afterlife whatever that is. All he needs to do now is simply to agree to the request by Ukraine and sit back to see his entourage appearing. Biden will definitely have the the last laugh when the whole place burns, because where he will be is hot hot hot.
Russia murdered several people over the weekend and repeated their winter war crime by targeting power plants. If Ukraine can stop the source of these weapons - good on them.
chewkw
Free Member
Biden knows that soon he will no longer be able to comprehend or to enjoy his own existence so what better way then to have entourage to accompany him into the afterlife whatever that is. All he needs to do now is simply to agree to the request by Ukraine and sit back to see his entourage appearing. Biden will definitely have the the last laugh when the whole place burns, because where he will be is hot hot hot.
Considering how Biden has dragged his feet at every stage and even now, is only allowing the missiles use in Kursk... I'm not sure your point is valid. It's also the best time for Biden to escalate anyway.
Putin knows he only needs to hold out till trump is in office. I don't see him blowing his own and everybody else's arse up, as he can't wait a few weeks...
Also, wouldn't you say Putin is escalating just a tad by having a foreign, nuclear power put 50 thousands boots on the ground against Ukraine?
(Also Biden is not not a Pharaoh.)
You might want to add cutting fibre lines again and more people jumping out of windows. ballet star no less who was very vocal and anti war.
I'm not sure how far people will let Putin test the water in the EU but cutting fibre spines is sailing close to an act of aggression to the owners the pipe.
As for the economy I've seen footage of butter being under lock and key and reports that the death payments to Russian shoulder has been cut.
Putin is throwing his last roll of the dice and it's all on either trump or China going after Taiwan. The latter I don't think will happen China is not ready for it until they get more aircraft carriers built added to the fact it will be a disaster for them.
Interesting you should say that because it’s what I’ve wondered about Putin.
Western domination is at the turning point in history, whether Putin is around or not is irrelevant as the push back has began.
It’s also the best time for Biden to escalate anyway.
Biden (more likely he and the deep state) is trying to sabotage the next presidency, but I have a feeling that the deep state will hide deep when the next presidency period begins.
Putin knows he only needs to hold out till trump is in office. I don’t see him blowing his own and everybody else’s arse up, as he can’t wait a few weeks…
Also, wouldn’t you say Putin is escalating just a tad by having a foreign, nuclear power put 50 thousands boots on the ground against Ukraine?
It is irrelevant who is in power in the West as the world is slowing changing. Not sure what is the relevancy of foreign troops in Ukraine because both sides do that anyway.
(Also Biden is not not a Pharaoh.)
LOL! He should build a solid gold sarcophagus to be remembered.
Putin is throwing his last roll of the dice and it’s all on either trump or China going after Taiwan. The latter I don’t think will happen China is not ready for it until they get more aircraft carriers built added to the fact it will be a disaster for them.
Trump is Trump and he knows that it is better to trade (trade war) then to shoot bullets. Unlike all the previous Presidents, Trump loves trade wars because he knows how damaging it can be financially and it is also not that popular to put people in financial hardship. Trump's priority is to return manufacturing and work etc back to US, not expanding wars.
The Western understanding of Chinese people is really limited. There will be No major war between Taiwan and China, but there might some skirmishes for shows but no major bombing like the carpet bombing of the civilians.
As I said we are seeing the dawn of new world system. Time has changed.
The danger to US is not foreign powers but the deep state. Trump has more troubles with the deep state than the rest of the world.
deep state
It may be confirmation bias. However.
deep state
Really. Can you explain what you think that is exactly?
Really. Can you explain what you think that is exactly?
Well there is the rigged supreme court and those state officials who make voting in certain areas as hard as possible.
Since those are Trumpists though its difficult too see why it would be problematic for him.
I took the link about undersea cables and read around the subject a bit. The russian survey vessel "Yantar" was implicated in Baltic cable issues and escorted out of the Irish sea...
Its been messing around with undersea cables since 2015...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_research_vessel_Yantar
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42543712
and at the bottom of the article there was speculation in 2018 it could knock out the cables....
The russian survey vessel “Yantar” was implicated in Baltic cable issues and escorted out of the Irish sea…
Supposedly it has been surveying / spying / marking all sorts for years in the Baltic and north Norway coastline, as well as transatlantic cables. There is a genuine vulnerability to Russia deciding to mess with all the undersea infrastructure from comms, oil, gas and power...
They snipped the cables going to one of the isles up north last year.
It would be a shame if Yantar had a loss of floatation type event.
Well there is the rigged supreme court and those state officials who make voting in certain areas as hard as possible.
Corruption, political meddling, bipartisanship etc. are as old as the hills. I don't think that is evidence of a sinister, shadowy, extra governmental cabal coordinating and controlling everything from behind the scenes. Which is what I think people mean by "deep state"? Yes there are non politicians like Musk exerting influence they don't merit, but there's nothing "deep" or hidden about it, it's blatant
Where is George Soros when you need him...
So...
After confirmation that missiles can now hit targets in Kursk:
Russia: "We have nukes and we absolutely will nuke you all (and us) from orbit, you just wait and see! We really, really mean it this time! Honest!"
The reality: They use their EDC Swiss Army Knife (made in China) to snip an internet cable going between Germany and Finland.
😀
I mean, Europe needs to be prepared for this sort of hybrid shit from Putin but it's not exactly time to stock up on potassium iodide tablets and baked beans!
It would be a shame if Yantar had a loss of floatation type event.
It would be a mystery, but any boat near exploding gas pipelines and undersea cable demolition has to take that risk on the chin.