National Rifle Association extending its reach then?
🤣
National Rifle Association extending its reach then?
Given how the US National Rifle Association was infiltrated by Russian spies doesnt that still count as an inside job?
Those made up nut jobs although it turns out dissonance has a fair and valid point about the USA NRA having a few members with snow on their boots
I'm shocked, SHOCKED, to hear suspicions that Russian security officers might fabricate evidence.
https://twitter.com/IssandJumal/status/1561781510440714243
No surprises there !!
The speed v with which they've found these Azov IDs, makes you wonder if the FSB were inviting setting this up hmmmmm
Reports the NRA have taken credit.
A car bomb of that scale takes huge planning or really stupid security staff.
Weeks of following him/her
Getting access to the cars of top Russia (I want to use the word fascist) adviser to putin.
Getting high explosive and associated gubbins.Or it’s an inside job.
Ummmmm.
Although my money is on an inside job all day long.
Its not completely impossible that the NRA could do this, the IRA managed Brighton and Mountbatten. But that would require the NRA to be well trained, organised, committed, and... well... real... and not just an element of Psychological Warfare by another party.
I suppose its theoretically possible that the efforts in Ukraine have created breathing room inside Russia to organise, I dont believe that IS what is happening, because frankly I have no idea what is happening.
Can someone confirm who the NRA is in this context please. It's certainly not the US National Rifle Association, or it it was indeed them then claiming the credit, I'm astounded that they could actually be more a group of fantasists than I previously gave them credit for.
As fake as it obviously is, it would be pretty cool if this was true.
https://twitter.com/PowerVertical/status/1561800881791696900
Can someone confirm who the NRA is in this context please. It’s certainly not the US National Rifle Association, or it it was indeed them then claiming the credit, I’m astounded that they could actually be more a group of fantasists than I previously gave them credit for.
National Republican Army of Russia, a nationalist anti Putinist movement, allegedly.
At this point I dont think anyone really knows what it is. Could (and for me, probably is) just be another element of the psychological war currently being fought.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364237/
Contains the "manifesto" of the NRA.
A Ukrainian woman, with a child, managed to pull of an assassination in Moscow's elite Rublyovka neighborhood -- and escape to Estonia in a Mini Cooper?!?
CCTV images have been found of the perps.
National Republican Army of Russia, a nationalist anti Putinist movement, allegedly.
Thanks piemonster.
Getting high explosive and associated gubbins.
Surely it'd be fairly easy to buy weapons off the back of a truck in Russia?
Molgrips
The Russian army is currently getting it's arms from the Taliban at this stage it's anything goes.
High stakes cluedo.
I'm going with Putin in the Kremlin with C4.
So what are the odds of Putin ordering random strikes across the Ukrainian cities tomorrow to coincide with their Independence day ?
So what are the odds of Putin ordering random strikes across the Ukrainian cities tomorrow to coincide with their Independence day ?
What are the odds of Ukraine anticipating this very predictable thing and planning accordingly? Yes, I'm sure Putin will use it as a pretext, I doubt that Ukraine will be very surprised.
With any luck, Ukraine will pre-empt it with something spectacular against a Crimean air base or weapons warehouse.
And their pontoon bridge over the Dnieper that replaces the HIMAR-ed Antonovsky Bridge
I'm surprised we've not heard more about that being sunk. Maybe it's so ineffective it's not worth the bother.
With any luck, Ukraine will pre-empt it with something spectacular against a Crimean air base or weapons warehouse.
Or just have counter battery operations just waiting for the first 'bang'...
I’m surprised we’ve not heard more about that being sunk. Maybe it’s so ineffective it’s not worth the bother.
It isn't complete yet. The Russians have been trying to build it using the Antonovsky Bridge remains as a shelter from HIMARs strikes.
UKR struck something nearby yesterday but it isn't clear whether it was supply trucks negotiating the Antonovsky bridge or supply trucks on the ferry, but it went with a bang.
TASS reported that the strike killed civilian bridge repair teams and that nobody else was using the bridge. That doesn't fit with the magnitude of the explosion
I see the ISW are saying that's Russia more or less declaring occupied zaporizhia as basically Russian territory now or independent at least. Guessing this is the Russians going towards annexation in Russian eyes/law.
I think Ukraine can basically say cheerio to land once we do get these official declarations.
Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying Ukrainian citizens entering the occupied region as temporary asylum seekers. Head of the Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration Yevheny Balitsky signed an order that designates Ukrainian citizens arriving in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as temporary asylum seekers based on Russian law.[1] The order requires the registration of Ukrainian and Russian citizens based on their place of residence or place of arrival in the Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhia Oblast and requires the distribution of temporary identification forms for all “stateless persons.” Ukrainians and Russians may register if they present proof of their temporary asylum application. This decree has various implications under both international law and domestic Russian law. International law states that a refugee is an individual from outside the country (or who is stateless) who is seeking “temporary asylum” in another country to escape persecution.[2] Russian law defines a refugee as a person ”who is outside of his/her country of nationality or habitual residence.”[3] Neither of these statuses properly apply to the majority of people crossing from unoccupied Ukraine into occupied Zaporizhia.Russian occupation authorities are thus falsely classifying all Ukrainians entering occupied territories in Zaporizhia Oblast as refugees escaping persecution in Ukraine. The order also de facto identifies Ukraine as a separate country from the Zaporizhia Oblast entity, as defined by the occupation authority. By classifying all Ukrainians as refugees, Russian occupation authorities are establishing a new legal category that might have its own restrictions. Russian occupation authorities may use the refugee status to restrict Ukrainians who temporarily return to occupied territories after evacuating from them. The order will likely affect Ukrainian citizens traveling to occupied Kherson Oblast via the checkpoint in Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, as the order requires the registration of individuals at the point of arrival in the occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, and Vasylivka is the checkpoint serving Kherson as well as Zaporizhia Oblasts.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22
Not sure itll make any difference at all over the military reality tbh.
Whatever that turns out to be.
I see the ISW are saying that’s Russia more or less declaring occupied zaporizhia as basically Russian territory now or independent at least. Guessing this is the Russians going towards annexation in Russian eyes/law
If that's the case then it'll carry no more weight than the annexation of Crimea since 2014. The EU allowed business as usual then because of gas supplies and the large number of Russian-speakers in Crimea (whether they wanted Russian rule or not).
The difference now is that Russia kicked off in the EU-philic West, bordering the EU. Ukraine fought back with aid from other countries and now want Russia completely out
If they are successful in this it will bring a ruck of other problems, such as do areas like the Crimea want Ukraine/EU-philic rule? But that's in the future
Historic Zaporizhzhia covers some of modern Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Kherson and the Donetsk and was the home of the Cossacks. It all seems to revolve around Russian history, rather than a territorial agreement made in 1991 in exchange for which UKR gave its nuclear weapon option up. That and the largest nuclear power station in Europe
The EU allowed business as usual then because of gas supplies
Not directed at you, more just a general suggestion.
I know its done the rounds now, bit the Yale paper trying to asses the economic realities for Russia is well worth the read.
And I mean the paper, not an article on the paper. Even just the infrastructure challenges and the lopsided reliance on European cash for energy and the lack of infrastructure to counterbalance that by pivoting east.
PDF download here
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
To be clear, I dont buy into their "oblivion" forecast.
The Russians have had two lots of stored munitions explode within the past few days inside Russia just over the border with Ukraine. People were evacuated from Timonovo and Soloti in the first explosion. "Smoking Kills" has been heeded, both explosions were the result of the current hot conditions. Hotter than either Syria or Afghanistan?
When I worked at AWE Foulness we did a lot of trials on stored munitions. Drop and graze tests were done from various heights with explosives at a range of temperatures.
The ones that went bang were the really cold ones while the same explosive at 40C just bounced. I'm surprised the Russians don't know that, their trawlers bristling with aerials were always fishing just off the island 😊
piemonster
Full Member
Not sure itll make any difference at all over the military reality tbh.Whatever that turns out to be.
The military reality is still stalemate, imo.
timba
Free MemberIf that’s the case then it’ll carry no more weight than the annexation of Crimea since 2014.
Absolutely. But in russian eye's they'll become Russian and they'll never give them up after that.
I see Turkish gas purchases have doubled this year so far too. I was wondering what Erdogan's angle was tbh. Guess kinda obvious tbh.
But in russian eye’s they’ll become Russian and they’ll never give them up after that.
It'll just come down to military force.
thols2
Free Member
But in russian eye’s they’ll become Russian and they’ll never give them up after that.It’ll just come down to military force.
Ukraine aren't going to push out Russia. Himars etc are good, but it's just taking pot shots. The gold standard is taking back land.
The military reality is stalemate, imo.
Whilst the lines on the map aren't moving much right now, I'm not sure that 'stalemate' really covers it.
The cracks in Russia's operation are only getting bigger and they seems to be resorting to more and more desperate measures (using 1960's machinery from storage, sending raw, untrained recruits straight into the front line etc) just to maintain the status quo.
Their casualties remain unsustainably high. The HIMARS strikes on Russia ammo dumps have also greatly reduced their ability to capitalise on their artillery advantage.
The Ukrainians however, are getting very very good at causing the Russians maximum pain with whatever resources they have and now have better trained troops returning from time spent in the UK and elsewhere, ready to use all the new toys NATO have given them.
Eventually it will come down to morale and will to fight and in this instance you should always bet on the home team. Especially now they've seen what happens to civilians in areas Russia captures.
There are things that could change these calculations (full Russian mobilization, or Belarus sending troops for instance) and things are likely to look pretty bleak for a while yet but I still think the most likely outcome is a Russia collapse on the battlefield, I'm not going to pretend I know when though and continued support from the 'West' will be essential if this is to happen.
The military reality is still stalemate, imo.
I dont think well have a real answer on that for some time. Im still not seeing anything less than a multi year war.
I don't see it, stopping an offensive, is a massively different proposition from going on the offensive.
I also think people over play the morale of Russian soldiers. Their government doesn't care about their morale.
Their casualties remain unsustainably high.
If the Ukraine casualty figures were true the Russians would have packed up and gone home. I'd suggest they are somewhere in the middle of the 1000-43k range, and that the Ukrainians have probably lost a similar amount. (even Zelensky admitted losing nearly 200 a day at one point.)
And I would also point back to the british army generals comments about Russian ability to regenerate being unlimited.
So if we face a slow down over winter, it's not just the Ukrainians that come back stronger.
If parts do go back. I'd think that would be more down to a successful guerilla campaign in occupied areas. But that's a long long long game. The above story I mentioned about declaring people refugees as soon as they enter occupied areas probably has something to do with that tbh. Will stop people crossing over so easily to help with that too. Still potential on the Kherson side of the river I guess mind.
Absolutely. But in russian eye’s they’ll become Russian and they’ll never give them up after that
This is the thing I really don't understand about all this, right from the outset.
Does Putin genuinely believe everything he says about liberating Ukraine from Nazis, the people of Crimea wanting to become Russian etc, etc?
Or is it just rhetoric for home consumption to justify something he knows is unjustifiable?
Or is it for western consumption making us think twice about how far he will go to protect these 'Russians'?
piemonster
Full Member
The military reality is still stalemate, imo.I dont think well have a real answer on that for some time. Im still not seeing anything less than a multi year war.
Might not be a traditional stalemate, but I think we are at the stage of a king and bishop chasing a kind and bishop. ie, play continues till the players realise, no-one can win.
I don’t see it, stopping an offensive, is a massively different proposition from going on the offensive.
I think everybody involved in any serious way knows this, I think everyone here taking wild guesses does too.
But it does not mean the only outcome is stalemate. It might be, it might not, the overall picture is so complex Ive no idea how you could settle on a conclusion to the end point.
It could end simply with Ukraine outlasting Russia, or Russia outlasting western support, or breakthrough military succeses one way or the other. Im not discounting the possibility of a stalemate leading to a frozen conflict, Id put money on it being a targeted end point. Just that its not inevitable by any stretch.
piemonster
Full Member
Ive no idea how you could settle on a conclusion to the end point.
The lack of movement on the maps is the biggest indicator for me. But yeah, it's just an opinion. I was hoping this recent positive news coming out of Ukraine would result is some land taken back, but it's not even made a dent yet. Which as I say is the gold standard. Only positive is that Russian gains are getting increasingly smaller too.
The thing is, Russia doesn’t care about military morale, right up to the point where it really has to.
Well, they do have a track record with costly wars leading to dramatic changes at home.
That was 100 years ago mind you.
*this is not a serious comment
I know its done the rounds now, bit the Yale paper trying to asses the economic realities for Russia is well worth the read
I'll confess to not reading the whole paper and having to look "fungible" up, but the slide pack at the end is useful reading
The first auction has been held for an oligarch's yacht, the Axioma, after its owner defaulted on a $20mn loan. The bank will get its loan amount and the balance will be disbursed by the courts, however, it's unlikely to make even the loan amount once the sealed bids have been opened
Maybe we should crowdfund a STW super yacht!!!!
The big difference in stalemate is Ukraine is defending itself. The Russian population has been fed the lie about “special military operation” which will unravel.
That was 100 years ago mind you.
Afghanistan in the 80's springs to mind as a more recent and relevant example.
The failure there was a huge blow to the legitimacy of the USSR and was a major component in the collapse of the Soviet system happening when it did.
I was hoping this recent positive news coming out of Ukraine would result is some land taken back, but it’s not even made a dent yet.
It looks like the Russian army is getting weaker and the Ukrainian army stronger. What Ukraine seems to be doing is making it difficult or impossible for Russia to supply its army. Just because lines on a map haven't changed yet doesn't mean much. Russia may be able to hold onto the territory it seized, it may not, we don't know at this point. This time next year we will probably have a better idea.
