I was slated a couple of days ago for suggesting that Putin is winning.
That's because he's not winning. His army is being ground to pieces and his economy is collapsing.
Well, you two extrapolated from what was just a criticism of a poor piece of journalism more than i expected
We don’t realise the extent to which much of the rest of the world now looks at us as much with laughter (and contempt) as with envy.
This isnt meant as a dig, but ive googled and not found anything.
Does anyone have a link to any credible quantitative data on public opinion of the UK taken on a non European multi national scale.
I quite often see "the world is laughing at us" but I just as often see "the world still respects us" and in both cases if there is evidence stated as existing its always anecdotal or using a source thats actually just anecdotal again.
Youll be unsuprised to know that theres a clear correlation between those that believe were respected and views on voting Tory. And most of the time ive seen the world is laughing at us, its in left wing and/or Labour discussions.
Anyway, apologies for the thread drift.
Just to be clear, i dont honestly believe the world is, or isnt, laughing at us. The only thing I believe is that I dont know.
There are those that will take advantage of the situation but I don't think that's the same as laughing at us ( @inkster - what do you mean by "us"?)
Those taking advantage of, for example, knockdown oil prices are as likely to be laughing at "them" for getting into the situation of having to sell their oil off cheaply
...maybe the west isnt the only game in town anymore
The Power of Siberia pipeline runs into China and started pumping gas in 2019
There were talks with Japan, but as a country sanctioning Russia that won't be happening now
A pipeline to India isn't geographically possible, either through the Himalayas, ****stan (India won't like that) or Afghanistan (Russia has a history there)
The reality is that the infrastructure to the West exists and could be used if certain conditions are met.
The other point is that Russia agreed to China's leverage in 2014, paying $350/1000 cu m gas. Europe was paying $380 at the same time.
Basically Russia has turned it’s back on Europe imo. We can argue if that’s a good or bad thing for them. I’ve haven’t a scooby tbh, but I think that’s what is happening if you look at this war through a wider scope.
That certainly is a consequence to some degree. And it certainly seems like an easy shift is wanted to be apparent.
But, well, geography. Most Russians, and most of their industry (energy aside) is west of the Urals. Part of the reason a warm water port in their west is so important?
Im under no illusions about the west being the only game in town, hasnt been for a long time.
maybe the west isnt the only game in town anymore
For a lot of things it is. The U.S. dollar is still the major reserve currency. That's why China and Russia hold hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. bonds and Russian kleptocrats hide their money in Western countries. The liberal democracies have much lower corruption than the rest of the world so companies know they can do business there and have recourse to legal systems that don't have verdicts dictated by political leaders. The top research universities are located in liberal democracies because researchers need to be able to speak freely without fear of imprisonment for telling the truth. This allows the U.S. and Europe to attract the top technical talent from around the world so a lot of the critical technology still comes from the West. Yes, Russia has hydrocarbons and mining, but those are much easier for the West to substitute than Western technology and finance is for Russia to substitute.
Even more importantly, the liberal democracies have shared values that mean the alliances are between friends who value each other, despite quite a lot of squabbling over details. Russia and China have no friends. Any treaty they sign is purely transactional and everyone knows it. When the treaty ceases to have transactional value, the countries involved will simply walk away. China will assist Russia to the degree that the Chinese leaders believe it will help China but they don't really give a damn beyond that. Western countries are helping Ukraine because they see that it is the victim of aggression and deserves help, not because it has some transactional value to them. An alliance of autocracies cannot become an alliance of friends with shared values. This is why NATO and the other alliances among liberal democracies dominate the world and why countries that are threatened by autocratic neighbours such as Russia or China turn to the liberal democracies for security.
"That’s because he’s not winning. His army is being ground to pieces and his economy is collapsing."
Same thing happened to Russia in 1941. Hitler thought he had it won.
Same thing happened to Russia in 1941. Hitler thought he had it won.
I see it more like the Winter War against Finland. Russia (USSR) thought it would be a push over.
Same thing happened to Russia in 1941. Hitler thought he had it won.
Germany probably could have beaten the USSR if that was the only war they were fighting. In mid-1941, they were also fighting a major campaign in the Mediterranean and Middle-East against the UK and Commonwealth. That delayed the invasion of Russia so the German advance was halted when winter fell and they never captured Moscow. Then Japan attacked the U.S. and Hitler declared war against the U.S. That meant that Germany was fighting three major opponents. The U.K. and Commonwealth had greater industrial capacity than Germany, the U.S. had massively more. Once the U.S. entered the war, Germany's defeat was inevitable but it still took until mid-1943 before it became obvious how bad things were for Germany and Japan.
It's a bit similar in Ukraine. Russia is much weaker than nearly anyone thought. In the first few days they captured quite a bit of Ukrainian territory and Putin probably thought that victory was near. However, Ukraine has support from democracies with vastly more industrial capacity than Russia. Now Russia is bogged down and constantly losing men and equipment that they can't replace. It will take time, but Russia is in a fight that they don't have the resources to win. Just like Hitler, Putin does not seem aware that his short-term success has paved the way for a long-term defeat.
Same thing happened to Russia in 1941. Hitler thought he had it won
There are parallels with Russia in 1941:
Germany expected a quick win
Six months later the German army was exhausted
German logistics hadn't accounted for a protracted campaign because they expected a quick win
Over-stretched German and axis forces were then vulnerable to a Soviet counterattack
Our liberal democracies are not as liberal and not as democratic as they once were and Putin has had a big hand in that.
In the World of Tanks sense then yes, Russia is losing but I'd suggest you put the console down and go and watch Game of Thrones instead, or better still, watch "Come and See" (you've either seen that film or you haven't. I'm guessing you haven't)
We defeated the Taliban, Bin Laden and Isis militarily but look what it did to the West culturaly and politically. For some people winning is dying and victory is found in destroying what your enemy valued most (liberal democracy).
Our liberal democracies are not as liberal and not as democratic as they once were and Putin has had a big hand in that.
Putin has done a lot of damage to Western democracy but he overplayed his hand and it's now pretty clear to most people exactly what he is. The invasion of Ukraine and the endless Russian warcrimes have reminded people in democratic countries of the importance of alliances such as NATO and the need to fund credible military deterrence. Putin has achieved exactly the opposite of what he wanted: NATO is stronger now, Russia is weaker, and the malign influence of Russia is pretty obvious to see.
What is "World of Tanks?"
I'm not arguing with any of the counterfactual arguments presented, in fact I concur with most of them but....
In 1941 Russia was on its arse. In 1945 Russian influnce dominated the entirety of Eastern Europe.
S**t happens.
"What is “World of Tanks?”
It's a console game... but you knew that.
n 1941 Russia was on its arse. In 1945 Russian influnce dominated the entirety of Eastern Europe.
Would things have been different if they hadn’t captured and looted Berlin before the rest of the Allies got there? Stalin played that to his advantage and it took a while for the UK and US leaders to realise the German people were no longer the enemy - the Russians were. One might argue Stalin would still have found some other way to conduct his powermongering, but he may have had a less advantageous starting point.
It’s a console game… but you knew that.
I didn't, actually. Is it any good?
There are parallels with Russia in 1941:
There are some, but there are also massive differences
Germany expected a quick win
No, Hitler expected it to be a quick win, because he was a moron with strategic sense of a particularly stupid farm hand who'd risen to dizzy heights of corporal. Most of the German military command knew it would be a shit fest because they'd read some history
Six months later the German army was exhausted
Not quite, despite the fact that they were woefully under prepared and badly equipped, it took under Feb 43 before the Russian's offered terms.
A closer parallel with WWII is lend lease, Russia received 18,000 aircraft 12,000 tanks hundreds of thousands of trucks, railway equipment and food totalling $680 billion in todays money. Only, Ukraine is getting help this time round.
Thought this was an interesting vid, basically China happy to hoover up Europe's share of the Russia oil. Goes into detail in some of the pipelines and plans also takes a wider look at the strategic points in the indo pacific.
There are some, but there are also massive differences
Absolutely.
Hitler portrayed the Soviet Union as being run by non-Aryan people, the Ukraine was portrayed as run by Fascists
Not quite, despite the fact that they were woefully under prepared and badly equipped, it took under Feb 43 before the Russian’s offered terms
The Battle of Moscow (Oct 1941-Jan 1942) and the Soviet counter-offensive pushed Germany back some 150 miles. Germany launched more offensives and was badly defeated at the Battle of Stalingrad in 1943
This is an interesting thread on the tradeoffs with Russian weapons systems. Ironic that the need for skilled operators handicaps Russia and benefits Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1553745950132297730
Fascinating read, thanks 👍
It appears the Russians used a thermobaric charge to kill the Olenivka pow’s,
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432?s=21&t=MNtzUKyACSD6ixZ4rYY26A
If this is even remotely accurate, hard to see Russia ever sustaining another major offensive operation.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1553833356399464449
Russia is responsible for PoWs being at Olenivka whatever the truth of the tragedy is
Russia is also sending very mixed messages. On Sunday the Russian defence ministry told news media that it had invited the UN and Red Cross, but on the same day The International Committee of the Red Cross said that it still hadn't received permission to visit
Russia is also
sending very mixed messageslying about this just like they've lied about pretty much everything else.
FTFY.
It’s a console game… but you knew that.
Pfft - it's a PC game that got a cut-down console port
Pfft – it’s a PC game that got a cut-down console port
thols2
Free Member
If this is even remotely accurate, hard to see Russia ever sustaining another major offensive operation.
If that's remotely accurate it's hard to see why the Russians didn't pack up and go home in April.
I'm also sure I've seen that image before slagging off the in-accuracy of Russian artillery, there it seems to be shown to indicate the mortar bombardment of withdrawing russian troops.
(It's an image from june 6th https://desdemonadespair.net/2022/06/un-chief-warns-of-unprecedented-hunger-crisis-from-global-food-shortage-no-country-will-be-immune-to-the-social-and-economic-repercussions-of-such-a-catastrophe.html)
I suspect 'Shagger' here is made up tbh. 😆
If that’s remotely accurate it’s hard to see why the Russians didn’t pack up and go home in April.
Because Russia has a highly centralized political and military system run by fear and violence. Putin cannot afford to just pack up and go home. His generals are terrified of him so they just pass on orders to keep up offensive operations. This pattern repeats down the chain of command until it gets to the soldiers in the field. The Russian army is a horrifically brutal place so their soldiers have to choose between probably being killed or maimed by Ukrainians if they fight or certainly being killed or maimed by their own side if they desert. Highly motivational.
Maybe, but that twitter 'piece' is clear propaganda.
Maybe, but that twitter ‘piece’ is clear propaganda.
Are you saying that it's fabricated? Based on what? That you hope it's not true?
I'd hope it's true, I just think it's the usual twitter noise. It's trying to paint the picture that Russians are cowards and the Ukrainians as all conquering hero's. A nice thought but really it's just a meat grinder, where everyone will be shitting themselves.
Speaking of the grind, that seems to be the key word I think, current targets seem that Ukraine are aiming to take back Kherson west of the Dnipro river and Russia is focused on the rest of Donetsk Oblast. With both sides on offensive and defensive positions, seems to somewhat cancel out each other in an overall sense.
You wonder if these 2 objectives are met, then the war then becomes stuck at a true stalemate? Both of these objectives look like they are going to take a while mind.
Question is of how long the grind will continue on? At some point both sides must realise that the pace of territorial change is probably going to lead to an extremely long war and there will be no quick win. (surely this is well understood by now.)
I just wonder if when those 2 targets are met, it kinda gives something that can be sold as a win for both before they start seriously negotiating. (Or atleast calming things down to a lower level war, I'm not sure negotiations will go anywhere.)
i know I'll get hit with the Ukrainians will never give up their territory, aye fair enough but reality is going to have to hit a some point?
I just wonder if when those 2 targets are met, it kinda gives something that can be sold as a win for both before they start seriously negotiating.
Russia doesn't negotiate in good faith. Ukraine knows this, as does the rest of the world. Ukraine won't agree to any peace deal that isn't backed up Russian forces being evicted from Ukraine and kept out by military force.
I literally just said I know I'll get hit with that. 😆 So it's a forever war then?
It's only been 6 months since Russia started their wider campaign outside the Donbass, that's nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Taking territory rarely happens overnight, even if Russia managed to hold the Donbass securely for a few years there would still be constant pushback against it by Ukraine and unless they are bullied into a concession by the West, why would they not continue striking back for as many years as it takes?
It took the Roman Empire from 43AD to 87AD to conquer Britain once you factor in Boudica's uprising and they never really fully subdued the population as they had to maintain a constant military presence and build 80 miles of wall.
I think we've been used to seeing lightning wars in recent decades but those have primarily been where one side has had a signficant advantage to the other. This appears too closely matched to avoid lengthy drawn out stalemates and neither side looks set to give in any time soon.
Seosamh77, That's now the situation looked a couple of weeks in. I posted on here back then that I thought that Russia would eventually cede the territory North West of Kyiv and in the Kherson region in exchange for Russian gains in the East.
Russia ended up leaving the NW of their own axcord rather than through negotiation but other than that I'm sure that will be the end result of this conflict, wether it takes months or years.
why would they not continue striking back for as many years as it takes?
Death toll would be my best guess.
So it’s a forever war then?
Nope, it's a war until Ukraine is satisfied that its borders are secure. How long that takes will be up to Russia. Russia can end this anytime, all they have to do is stop attacking Ukraine. As the aggressor, the onus is on Russia to stop the aggression, not on the victim to appease the aggressor.
So it’s a forever war then?
Is 150 days forever war now? If wars are essentially tests of internal politics, economic strength and logistics. While Russia probs passes the first of those, it will fail the second two at some point pretty soon.
I'm quite aware who the aggressor is.
nickc
Full Member
So it’s a forever war then?Is 150 days forever war now? If wars are essentially tests of internal politics, economic strength and logistics. While Russia probs passes the first of those, it will fail the second two at some point pretty soon.
No 150 days is nowhere near it. But any sensible projections for this war will put it at years, which is an awful lot of lives.
I'm not so confident on the second two either.
