reality is going to have to hit a some point?
The reality is that Russia doesn't negotiate in good faith. Ukraine knows this and won't sign any agreement that isn't backed up by military force. They aren't going to cede territory, That's the reality of it. At some point, Russia is going to have to face reality, the longer this war goes on, the worse off Russia is.
the longer this war goes on, the worse off Russia is.
How so? The cultural separation has happened. If this war stops tomorrow, western businesses aren't going to start flooding into Russia again. So Russia at this current point is on an irreversible realignment of their economy.
Russia at this current point is on an irreversible realignment of their economy.
They're on a trajectory parallel to North Korea. You can call that a "realignment" if you want, but I think economists probably use technical terms like "economic collapse."
Just seems more to me like switching markets.
They’re on a trajectory parallel to North Korea
Except North Korea aren't big exporters of gas. As I said before, Putin is not troubled by the deaths of his soldiers or his unpopularity in the streets, and he can keep going as long as he wants, until the Ukrainians are utterly exhausted and will accept the loss of (eg) Donbas in order to get back some semblance of normal life. At which point the rest of the world will heave a sigh of relief and say "ok, well, if you really want to" and turn the heating back on.
So it’s a forever war then?
8 years and counting. This latest escalation overshadows the rest.
MoreCashThanDash
Free Member
So it’s a forever war then?8 years and counting. This latest escalation overshadows the rest.
Agreed.
8 years and counting. This latest escalation overshadows the rest.
It does seem to be following a very linear path of escalation that eerily follows the events of WW2, with Germany annexing Austria, the Sudetenland, then the whole of Czechoslovakia, then Poland- at which point the Allies got involved. And now Russia is annexing Crimea, then the Donbas, then the rest of Ukraine before, I don't know, invading Poland?- I guess that's when we stop being Neville Chamberlain and join the fight?
Ehhh I'm not sure it is, yet anyway. Hitler didn't know exactly how far he could push us before we'd intervene, whereas now that point should be abundantly clear with NATO borders.
Part of me thinks that if he succeeds in Ukraine then he'll try it on. One of the ways that our events differ from 1930s is that this is exactly a lightening war, is it? So at least that's working in a favour. At the expense of Ukrainian lives though, unfortunately
The parallel is more pre WW1, polarisation into 2 grand alliances. Ukraine isn't where the flashpoint for ww3 will happen anyhow, if it happens, it'll be between China and America imo in the indo pacific somewhere, with Europe and Russia playing a supporting role. We're a good bit away from that I reckon, but defo on the trajectory if we aren't careful. The tensions are ramping up.
One thing that has been occuring to me throughout this conflict is that there must have been a conversation between the western powers about whether they should intervene militarily- the Budapest Memorandum allowed for this- and obviously they concluded 'nope'. I would love to know why the contents of those conversations and why they decided against it
it’ll be between China and America imo in the indo pacific somewhere
Taiwan perhaps
Possibly, but if it happens it won't be localised to there. Russia would be encouraged to invade Europe to take forces away from the pacific.
We're as well all saying our prayers by that point anyhow.
onus is on Russia to stop the aggression, not on the victim to appease the aggressor.
quite.....!
I would love to know why the contents of those conversations and why they decided against it
something something nuclear war something something.
personally i think that if the west or at least exsoviet countries joined sides with Ukraine at the start then Moscow would be undersiege within days or weeks.
and it's not as if those ex-soviet countries were slow to send aid, unlike Germany and others.
BBC News - Reality of Ukraine war hidden from Fortress Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62331061
Interesting insight into how completely the state controlled media is controlling the sentiment towards the war in Russia
Taiwan perhaps
Quick thread derailment, but yes. There's a lot of talk around Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan overnight Tuesday/Wednesday and China is predictably upset about the "one-China" principle.
The People's Liberation Army are associated with RO-RO ferries and three are off their normal routes. It sounds like a joke, but what better way to supply additional materiel on a secure coastline https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/china-s-navy-is-exploring-ways-to-use-ferries-for-military-landings
Reality of Ukraine war hidden from Fortress Russia
There's also a large element of ordinary Russians sticking their fingers in their ears, humming and trying to pretend its not happening.
Except North Korea aren’t big exporters of gas.
Russias gas pipelines of any consequence are pointing towards Europe. The China version is a very small percentage of the amount coming our way. It'll take Russia a very long time to get that kinda capacity to China (and India) even if they can actually afford it (and have the actual materials to make it).
It’ll take Russia a very long time to get that kinda capacity to China (and India) even if they can actually afford it (and have the actual materials to make it).
Exactly. Russia is dependent on the West for technology, including their oil and gas industries. They aren't going to build a bunch of pipelines to China overnight and sanctions will make it even more difficult.
In the broader economy, they are dependent on imported factory equipment so they can't just build new factories to substitute the imported components they need to build cars, trucks, farm equipment, etc.
It won't be easy or a short term thing, but this whole separation thing is damaging both ways really.
Couple of interesting articles. It all sounds complex and far from good for anyone. It'll hurt / it is hurting Russia and Europe.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-russia-execute-gas-pivot-asia
this whole separation thing is damaging both ways really.
For the West, it's causing some discomfort. Sanctions will always do that. For Russia, it's catastrophic.
I guess we'll find out when we are all freezing our arses off in January and the recession hits properly next year.
If this war stops tomorrow, western businesses aren’t going to start flooding into Russia again.
I'm not sure that would be the case. Russia has a great deal of natural resources that everyone wants access to, I mean we've seen the problem for Europe(and ourselves as a knock on effect) that restrictions of gas has caused, and gas is only one of dozens of natural resources Russia has in abundance. Business has no morals where profit is concerned. So if the war did end tomorrow, business would be chapping on their door the very next.
As to sanctions. Russia previously was behind a big wall and that didn't effect their economy to the extent some are claiming it is now. I think Russia will internalize as they have done since the end of the 2nd WW and survive on the minimum. Black market rules.
dyna-ti
Free Member
So if the war did end tomorrow, business would be chapping on their door the very next.
I kinda agree that's a possibility, but I think there's a fundamental shift that's happening here.
I kinda agree that’s a possibility, but I think there’s a fundamental shift that’s happening here
The Russians will have caused themselves problems here too. Their reaction to Western businesses leaving following the invasion of Ukraine was to consider new laws that would allow the state to seize those businesses.
If a business is more than 25% foreign-owned then a state administrator can seize the business and sell it while barring that company from business in Russia.
As a company I'd be thinking long and hard about investing in Russia knowing that they've already invaded Ukraine twice and been subject to sanctions that a) limit business opportunities and b) would affect my share price and trigger boycotts of my goods. That's aside from the humanitarian aspects to the invasion
Some companies have had to remain in name-only because they franchised themselves. They reacted by stopping the export of their goods to the franchise
For some companies it's business as usual, including a surprising number of European companies https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
A reminder as to how badly wrong assumptions/judgements can be.
The FP article (opinion piece) is paywalled for me so you get selected Twitter quotes
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1553892754450554880?s=20&t=o_sGMQpPff_q-XC3V9uWcQ
Of course, it may still be right in the longer term. Despite Russia being out of troops for the last 3 months straight.
As a company I’d be thinking long and hard about investing in Russia
Even before this latest invasion it was questionable, theres a few publicly available papers on the 1990s and the implications that might be worth a read if anyone has the time.
Theres a lot of hand wringing involved involved about western businesses back in the 90s, but at the heart of it all seems to have been rampant corruption making business difficult at best, impossible in the extreme.
Im not seeing any quick fixes unless you buy into (what I consider a fantasy) Putin being deposed anytime soon.
Hes pretty much sidelined, imprisoned or killed anyone capable enough of replacing him.
A reminder as to how badly wrong assumptions/judgements can be.
One of the big assumptions was that the Russian army would be competent. The assumption was that they would follow the U.S./NATO model of destroying anti-aircraft radar and missile batteries using stand-off weapons, then destroy the Ukrainian airforce, then destroy Ukrainian logistics, then sieze Kyiv and the major cities. As it turns out, the impressive military they had on paper didn't exist in reality and the advance on Kyiv was a debacle that they will probably never recover from. If the Russian had actually achieved air superiority as expected, sending HIMARS would have just been a waste of HIMARS - they would have quickly been destroyed by the Russian airforce.
Im not seeing any quick fixes unless you buy into (what I consider a fantasy) Putin being deposed anytime soon.
Even if Putin is deposed, his replacement would likely as not be just as bad. Russia doesn't have a history of past democracy to fall back on. I don't think it will have a Damascene conversion any time soon.
timba
Free MemberThe Russians will have caused themselves problems here too.
They've caused themselves monumental problems, more so that we'll face no doubt.
Well in saying that, we're a baw hair away from putting Liz Truss in charge mind you. 😆
German Ex-Chancellor and Chair of Nord Stream AG and Rosneft, Gerhard Schroeder, has popped up, "The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution"
"Schroeder said solutions to crucial problems such as Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, could be found over time, "maybe not over 99 years, like Hong Kong, but in the next generation"." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accuses-us-direct-ukraine-war-role-missile-attacks-2022-08-03/
I think that this will encourage UKR to continue with its current battle plans
I think that this will encourage UKR to continue with its current battle plans
Short of withdrawing completely from Ukrainian territory, I'm at a loss to imagine anything that Putin or his lackeys could say or do that wouldn't encourage Ukraine to just keep on with their battle plans.
Looks like the offensive in Kherson may be picking up pace. From the Telegraph:
Ukraine has recaptured 53 settlements in the southern region of Kherson as its fightback in the largely Russian occupied region mounts, the regional governor has said.
Ukraine has pledged to conduct a major counter-offensive to retake the swathes of land Russia captured early in the war, using Western-made long-range weapons to hit Russian supply lines.
"As of now, 53 settlements have been confirmed as liberated," Dmytro Butriy, the acting governor, said on national television.
That figure was nine settlements more than the number he gave on 1 August, which appeared to indicate a quickening tempo of Ukrainian gains in the region.
Telegraph isn't my paper/website of choice, but their coverage of the war hasn't been bad
I read an interesting and pretty balance (I thought) twitter feed about the current state of the war which essentially said: While the UKR are clearly winning the propaganda war, they've suffered just as much losses as the Russians and probably don't have the strength to make a counter-offensive before 2023 when they can regroup, train new recruits on new weapons systems and have enough "stuff" ready to make it work and stick. The Russian recruitment round this year has actually been pretty successful and the likelihood is that whats true fro the UKR is true for the Russians also (ie no real ability to mount an offensive before spring 2023)
However he also thought that there's immense pressure on UKR politicians to be seen to take the fight to the Russians. that may be politically difficult to avoid, but militarily may be the wrong move.
Despite Russia being out of troops for the last 3 months straight.
So who is it that's occupying the Donbas? I'm afraid that reports of Russia's demise are, unfortunately, exaggerated.
Russias gas pipelines of any consequence are pointing towards Europe.
Indeed, and they are there because we need gas. So the Russians, unlike the North Koreans, have us over a barrel (so to speak).
So who is it that’s occupying the Donbas? I’m afraid that reports of Russia’s demise are, unfortunately, exaggerated.
Which was my point tbf, but too subtle perhaps.
Which was my point tbf, but too subtle perhaps.
Yes, sorry - whoosh! moment there on my part.
nickc
Full Member
I read an interesting and pretty balance (I thought) twitter feed about the current state of the war which essentially said: While the UKR are clearly winning the propaganda war, they’ve suffered just as much losses as the Russians and probably don’t have the strength to make a counter-offensive before 2023 when they can regroup, train new recruits on new weapons systems and have enough “stuff” ready to make it work and stick. The Russian recruitment round this year has actually been pretty successful and the likelihood is that whats true fro the UKR is true for the Russians also (ie no real ability to mount an offensive before spring 2023)However he also thought that there’s immense pressure on UKR politicians to be seen to take the fight to the Russians. that may be politically difficult to avoid, but militarily may be the wrong move.
Yes this is the sense I've been getting as well, and as we move out of the summer closer to autumn and winter, you've got to imagine it'll stall further into next year as ground conditions become more difficult. Problem with that is if it settles down over winter, it also gives the Russians time to regroup too. So anyone's guess as to how it plays out next year.
As for Kherson, I've been hearing that the Russians are essentially doubling their troop count in the area, also, while damaging the bridge and destroying the railway bridge is probably slowing the Russians down, that's all it'll be doing as the dam a few miles up the road isn't something they can destroy. It's a war crime to destroy dams.
I was also listening to the Telegraph podcast on youtube, and they seem to suggest that Ukraine is having to go to the IMF for a 20 billion loan as they have or are on the verge of default. Which I'm surprised about, I'd have thought western funding would have been enough to keep their economy going. Bit of an alarm bell that tbh.
funkrodent
Full Member“As of now, 53 settlements have been confirmed as liberated,” Dmytro Butriy, the acting governor, said on national television.
If you look at any maps, the frontline in Kherson hasn't changed for nearly 2 months. I think these 53 settlements probably refer to land regained a few months back as opposed to anything really recent. The current Ukrainian offensive operations look to be focused on a small area around a bridgehead over the inhulets, around a town called Andriivka just south of Krivvy Rih.
https://militaryland.net/maps/invasion-maps/
That was a good site I got from a Ukrainian youtube commentator last night(he wasn't confindent of more gains in the Kherson region coming up), shows maps and you can skip through the timeline of them. Shows the different active and previously active fronts too.
Re the dam bridge - there is a small section that crosses a lock (for ships) that has been successfully damaged, subsequently repaired- and presumably can be attacked again. Also, the road runs along side the dam, not over it, and may be vulnerable (risky!!!).
I’d have thought western funding would have been enough to keep their economy going.
I don't remember any reports of other countries donating cash, I thought it was mainly military hardware and other, more social requirements?
20 billion doesn't sound much, they must be absolutely haemorrhaging cash these last 6 months. Hmm, answering my own question, it'll probably cover interest payments.
The US has promised financial support as part of it overall package.
