Putin’s winning isn’t he?All the early predictions of regime change, protests, sanctions biting etc haven’t come to much have they? 6 months in and the current situation looks remarkably similar to the scenario painted by Chewwy a week in.
The EU will be pushing towards a negotiated settlement by Christmas. What Truss thinks won’t matter ( photo opps with Zelinsky wont have the cachet once the winter sets in and the heating bills hit the doormat) and the US will be consumed by their own mid term elections.
The data coming out of official Russian sources about the impact of sanctions is as far as Ive read very tightly controlled and often cherry picked. And some of the 'not having an impact' stuff has been traced back to Russian propaganda sources. Even some fairly serious analysis such as the two Ivy league professors Thols linked to have to make a fair number of assumptions. There also seems to be some overly optimistic, borderline Daily Express headline levels of expectation for sanctions. Anything credible Ive read talks about years, not months, and makes no mention of them being silver bullets.
I dont recall any serious expectation that Putin would fall in a few months, certainly people talked about it being a way out, but not in this timeframe from a genuine analyst. Theres no doubt plenty of click bait articles out there admittedly.
Ukraine, have for months now been touting August as the tipping point, well, 'hoped for'. Whether that happens or not, is not something id risk money on. I hope they can move decisively enough to at least begin to end this war. I still think this is a multi year war, but who knows how an invading army will cope with a second winter against an army with superior morale fighting just to exist.
The EU (allegedly) appears to be working hard to ditch Russian energy as much as possible as quickly as a balanced approach to their economies allow. Some in the EU might want a negotiated settlement this winter, but there is a significant block in the EU that absolutely does not want to back down one inch and will (I think, correct me if there is evidence to the contrary) pay heavily before changing tack, Poland chief among them, but apart from one and a half exceptions, the former Soviet dominions of Eastern Europe seem very committed to not allowing Russian imperialism to spread. The plans for dealing with energy shortages are in place and longer term solutions being built or funded, Germany is building LNG terminals for example, albeit most of the infrastructure is a years away.
Not sure how the US will pan out, tbh. But Biden isnt actually leaving and so far bi partisan support had been relatively robust early on. Do you have data that suggests that will change, or already has changed?
Im not seeing anything to suggest that Ukraine isnt still fighting a mostly defensive war whilst waiting for mobilisation and new equipment/logistics to become effective, presumably this where the touted august timeframe comes in, Id asked this question before and noone really seemed to have a grip on how long that would take Ukraine, but that needs to be done before major offensives can start. (Well, as far as Ive read anyway. Im a data analyst, what the * would I now about it, but with all the mixed kit their dealing with the logistics looks difficult).
Ive no idea how this war will pan out, or in fact who is winning, presently it doesnt look like anyone is winning to me.
But then, what the * do I know. Im just guessing and hoping this horror ends without leading to even more horror down the line.
Ive no idea how this war will pan out, or in fact who is winning, presently it doesnt look like anyone is winning to me.
Agreed. But...
...the Ukrainian's seem to be hanging on whilst consuming fewer resources. They also seem to have better logists and intelligence, and the ability to use those more creatively. Long term this is surely going to change the balance of things...as will a winter defending on thier own soil.
I'm to optimistic I know.
Russia is winning?
If you look at the recent artillery missions by RA - they’ve dropped off a cliff. The RA tactics up till now have been heavily reliant on artillery grinding forward their small advances. Kherson has been cut off. More HIMARS and M270 rocket artillery is arriving.
Russia seems to be heading for a defensive mode in the south with the intention of forcing talks. Backed up by winter and subtle EU pressure this is a possibility
In June the counter-offensive was predicted by UKR because results of its actions would become more apparent by August
UKR needs to be in a position to go on the offensive against a weakened Russian army before they can dig in and begin to resupply, which is beginning to happen with Russian troop movements now
The question is whether UKR has the necessary materiel in the face of foot-dragging by some nations
25 missiles launched from Belarus.... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/28/russian-forces-fire-barrage-missiles-northern-ukraine-from-belarus
It's all wait and see at the minute really. August does seem to be shaping up to be a crucial month.
25 missiles launched from Belarus….
That's a pure sign of desperation by Russia to beg Belarus to send a totally pointless barrage of missiles as a distraction.
The article was clear that the missiles were Russian, fired by Russians from Belarussian soil.
Horrific video doing the rounds of a Russian soldier castrating a live, restrained POW. A trial would be great, but I won't lose sleep if he gets turned into a statistic. Evil bastards.
So, Russian profits from energy sales are fairly irrelevant because they can't use them to buy the high-tech components needed to manufacture the equipment their army needs.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1552688898287214592
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1552688911218098179
surely China will be happy to sell them whatever they need, at an inflated cost
Russian profits from energy sales are fairly irrelevant because they can’t use them to buy the high-tech components needed to manufacture the equipment their army needs
Between 2016 and 2020 Russia was the second largest exporter of weapons in the world. It can't manufacture currently but there will be back-channel weapons out there
Iran has advanced capability in manufacturing, including military drones. Partnered with artillery even "hobby" drones have proved effective in the war for Ukraine
The bigger questions are whether anyone will make weapons available to Russia and what volume would they supply
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/friends-benefits-iran-and-russia-after-ukraine-invasion
surely China will be happy to sell them whatever they need, at an inflated cost
For something like a car or truck (or tank), there will be critical components that are only produced by a very small number of manufacturers, maybe only a single supplier. Things like fuel injection systems, engine control modules, air bags, anti-lock brakes, etc. For example, turbochargers (used in tank engines) require high-precision manufacturing and bearings that can tolerate very high speeds and temperatures. Stuff like that tends to be made in Germany or Japan. China won't be able to supply all the components that Russia needs, if they could, you wouldn't see Russian car production fall off a cliff like it did.
Between 2016 and 2020 Russia was the second largest exporter of weapons in the world. It can’t manufacture currently but there will be back-channel weapons out there
Iran has advanced capability in manufacturing, including military drones.
The point is that the Russian weapons industry is dependent on Western technology. For example, you need high-tech machining equipment to produce weapons. That factory equipment is imported and Russia will not be able to repair or replace it when it wears out. Going begging to Iran for drones is not what a superpower would be doing.
there will be critical components that are only produced by a very small number of manufacturers, maybe only a single supplier.
I hear there is someone hereabouts who has spare capacity on a CNC machine.
there will be critical components that are only produced by a very small number of manufacturers, maybe only a single supplier.
And we all know that China, Iran etc love a nice reverse engineered product to sell...
For example, turbochargers (used in tank engines) require high-precision manufacturing and bearings that can tolerate very high speeds and temperatures. Stuff like that tends to be made in Germany or Japan. China won’t be able to supply all the components that Russia needs
Are you suggesting that China aren't capable of manufacturing high grade engineering components? I think you're very much mistaken as they have their own indigenous aerospace industry now. I suspect if they're not supplying Russia it's because the risk/opportunity balance, (getting caught up in sanctions vs. payments from Russia) doesn't stack up.
And we all know that China, Iran etc love a nice reverse engineered product to sell…
Some stuff is easy to copy, some stuff is difficult. That's why China is still dependent on Russia for engines for its military aircraft - they are extremely difficult to reverse engineer. Even if China can reverse engineer everything Russia wants, it will take many months or years to build the production capacity.
As the old joke goes, civil engineers build targets.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1552918575098331137
Soon to be HIMARed I suspect!
I suspect if they’re not supplying Russia it’s because the risk/opportunity balance
Id put a small wager on China being perfectly ok to see their belligerent northern neighbour weakened and their primary opponent on the world stage expend resources elsewhere.
The partnership without limits always looked like bllx, its a partnership so long as it suits is likely closer to the truth.
Id put a small wager on China being perfectly ok to see their belligerent northern neighbour weakened and their primary opponent on the world stage expend resources elsewhere.
True, another big weight on the side of opportunity there!
Id put a small wager on China being perfectly ok to see their belligerent northern neighbour weakened and their primary opponent on the world stage expend resources elsewhere.
I said earlier in this thread, the longer Russia is bled of armed forces, resources and money, particularly if Ukraine can eject them, the more the neighbours / autonomous states / those under the thumb of Russia may choose their moment...
The wider instability could be huge over the next few years.
The point is that the Russian weapons industry is dependent on Western technology
That's part of it. Russia has spent decades exporting weapons until a few months ago and might be able to buy some back. The only countries applying sanctions outside of the EU (includes UK) are broadly the English-speaking countries with Japan, Singapore and S Korea.
The bigger questions are whether anyone will make weapons available to Russia and what volume would they supply.
China play the long game very well, which they can given that they don't change political party every 4-5 years
Philippines have cancelled an order for Russian helicopters.
The bigger questions are whether anyone will make weapons available to Russia and what volume would they supply.
North Korea might sell them some old T-55s back, probably some Mig-21s as well.
Horrific video doing the rounds of a Russian soldier castrating a live, restrained POW. A trial would be great, but I won’t lose sleep if he gets turned into a statistic. Evil bastards.
I was made aware of this last night but chose not to watch it. It has now been removed from Twitter as far as I know. Perhaps dropping the perpetrator off with some Berber women would be a fitting punishment.
North Korea might sell them some old T-55s back, probably some Mig-21s as well
🤣 That'll be an improvement over the Mosin Nagant rifle from 1891 that some units have now. A good weapon but five-shot bolt-action doesn't do it on the modern battlefield
War Translated has this summary about what to expect fron the Ukrainians
https://wartranslated.com/day-154-july-27-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/
There won’t be a single day, when you will be able to tell, that it had started. In a way – it already has started. It will be accurate destruction of 🇷🇺 forces top-down, starting from operational, then operational-tactical, then tactical levels. Decisive forces – artillery (guided 155mm shells) , rocket artillery (HIMARS), aviation.
🇺🇦 will not throw solders in one large assault, they will first make sure 🇷🇺 has no fuel, no ammo, no command, only then approach with infantry. Of course, there will be manoeuvres, forcing 🇷🇺 to respond and deploy defence. This is not yet NATO level, when most damage can be done remotely, but close to that. Most emphasis is on remote fire, isolation of battlefields, and incremental destruction.
🇺🇦 objective is for its infantry to encounter weakened 🇷🇺 forces without supplies, fuel, ammo, command.
Not a website im able to vouch for
Search results indicate Aleksey Arestovych has some sort of function as a presidential advisor
Its another source citing August again
Pretty much self parody anyway.
https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/status/1552750007408885760
https://twitter.com/gnucontrol/status/1553013653686943744
Those "beautiful women" look 12 years old... Has to be self inflicted satire, shirley?
In March Russia announced that soldiers injured in the Ukraine "special operation" could expect 3mn roubles (equates to average workers pay for 4 years)
Wounded soldiers are currently having to turn to advocacy groups to get their money because the criteria changed from “concussion, injury, mutilation” on 3rd March to an official list of eligible injuries on 22 April and now claimants are being ignored
This will affect morale and it also says something about the numbers being wounded and the state of Russia's finances
N Macedonia is donating a number of tanks to UKR. They're older Soviet models from the 1980s but have composite armour and computerised fire control systems
N Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 and will now be upgrading its tank fleet to NATO standards. Another own goal by Russia by indirectly strengthening and standardising NATO forces
Just as an aside the US is releasing Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who supplied wars in Africa and S America, as part of an exchange for US prisoners
His story was loosely woven into the Nicholas Cage film, "Lord of War"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11036569
An interesting, if a little scary, piece in the Economist:
Vladimir Putin is in thrall to a distinctive brand of Russian fascism from TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/07/28/vladimir-putin-is-in-thrall-to-a-distinctive-brand-of-russian-fascism
I can only only see two paras... the same article is here https://godfreytimes.com/2022/07/28/vladimir-putin-is-in-thrall-to-a-distinctive-brand-of-russian-fascism/
An interesting, if a little scary, piece in the Economist:
Although not really a counter Jenkins has rewritten his opinion again in the Guardian.
If youve read one of his pieces before on Russia, its basically the same as the last one. All the wests fault, everything is not worth doing, no solutions offered. Key provable details or highly qualified counter analysis omitted where theyd conflict with the viewpoint.
I can only only see two paras… the same article is here
Sorry, paywall! Thanks for posting
Truly scary!
Although not really a counter Jenkins has rewritten his opinion again in the Guardian
I can find that one! Sounds like sort of apologist voice that were very prominent up until Russia invaded, then got much quieter as the reality of the situation became apparent.
The usual crap from Jenkins - no mention of he sanctions affecting russias ability to replace its military losses due to sanctions 🤷♂️, or that the Ruble is artificially inflated but state support and that Russia is eating through its reserves to do this? Or that Russian manufacturing has fallen off a cliff? Or how about this, Russia doesn’t have the infrastructure to redirect gas from the west to the East.
Have sanctions increased Putins grip on Russia? Evidence ??
He actually managed to cite an opinion piece as evidence nothing is having an effect which actually states and provides a source that Russias economy will shrink by 8.5% this year.
He also cites Kasparov, for what reason in an article about sanctions ive no ****ing idea. Im guessing im meant to read "they" and not bother to actually see who said it.
The interdependence of the world’s economies, so long seen as an instrument of peace, has been made a weapon of war. Politicians around the Nato table have been wisely cautious about escalating military aid to Ukraine. They understand military deterrence. Yet they appear total ingenues on economics. Here they all parrot Dr Strangelove. They want to bomb Russia’s economy “back to the stone age”.
The above is the paragraph, at the end of which is Kasparov's quote. Inserted as if its a NATO goal.
piemonster
Free Member
An interesting, if a little scary, piece in the Economist:Although not really a counter Jenkins has rewritten his opinion again in the Guardian.
If youve read one of his pieces before on Russia, its basically the same as the last one. All the wests fault, everything is not worth doing, no solutions offered. Key provable details or highly qualified counter analysis omitted where theyd conflict with the viewpoint.
There's no doubt though that what is happening is more than just sanctions on Russia though, it's pretty clear it's a separation of cultures that is happening. Regardless of the outcome of this war. So tbh after a while, it no longer becomes sanctions and is just the norm. I said ages ago I think Russia and Putin have long decided to strategically shy away from europe(If you want to make sense of this war I think that's where it ultimately lives.). This war is a bit of an expression of that.
Europe/America isn't the only game in town anymore. Basically Russia has turned it's back on Europe imo. We can argue if that's a good or bad thing for them. I've haven't a scooby tbh, but I think that's what is happening if you look at this war through a wider scope.
"The above is the paragraph, at the end of which is Kasparov’s quote. Inserted as if its a NATO goal."
The topic of Bombing Russia's economy 'back to the stone age' covers the greater part of this thread.
I was slated a couple of days ago for suggesting that Putin is winning. Maybe he isn't fighting the same war as the one we think the Ukranians are fighting for us. As Seosamh77 points out, maybe the west isnt the only game in town anymore.
Perhaps we are living under the illusion that the rest of the world either wants to be like us or is trying to 'catch up' with us. We assume that the rest of the world is destined to either follow our example or remain in, as Kasparov puts it; 'the stone age.'.
We don't realise the extent to which much of the rest of the world now looks at us as much with laughter (and contempt) as with envy.
