And the agreement has been signed for a few hours and no sh*t shirlock, Russia targets Odessa port area.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392
So now the RA in Kherson and west of the Inhulets river, is completely cut off from resupply? 👍
So now the RA in Kherson and west of the Inhulets river, is completely cut off from resupply? 👍
Not quite - but what they have done is make it impossible to shift big, heavy items, difficult to shift high volume of materials like ammunition or food.
They've also sent a message that any engineers fixing the bridges = toast.
So you've now got armour stuck on the Ukrainian side, that can't get heavy parts or retreat...and troops who will be running shorter of food and ammunition.
futonrivercrossing
User name checks out.
This is a good article on the Ukrainian strategy of corrosion
This is a good article on the Ukrainian strategy of corrosion
Yes. Apparently that convoy that was stuck north of Kyiv back in March was stopped by 30 guys on quad bikes. They ambushed it at a spot where the Russians couldn't get around the destroyed vehicles so they just had to sit there and wait for the road to clear. Then the Ukrainians hacked the Russian coms and kept sending fake messages to the Russians around Kyiv that the road was being cleared and the convoy should reach them in a day or two. That went on for weeks until the Russians realized the convoy was never going to arrive and decided to withdraw. The targeting of supply depots, command posts, and bridges is pretty obviously an attempt at repeating that strategy of forcing a Russian retreat without having to fight them directly.
UKR is cranking up the information war in Enerhodar (literally Energy's Gift). It's the home of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and was occupied by Russian forces in March https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/tell-us-where-russian-troops-are-living-ukraine-tells-citizens-key-region-2022-07-23/
It's also on the Dnieper river
Hungary's PM Orban is being a thorn in the EUs side again https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-calls-new-eu-strategy-ukraine-war-says-sanctions-failed-2022-07-23/
Some EU governments would privately agree but hopefully it's politically unacceptable
Germany has already moved to prevent one state having a right of veto over the rest
On a related theme, worn-out barrel failure.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1551298953827713028
Aside from the violence.
It seems that Russia is doing it's best to prevent any company or Government in the next couple of decades doing business with it and any Russian companies. This through thier products and quality control being utterly sh*te. See those two posts about guns and qc
Also through being so bloody unpredictable and untrusted. See what games the gas supply is being turned off/reduced.
Add this then on top of sanctions and the (huge) cost of this war.
Let's remind ourselves that Russia's GDP is similar to Spain, Italy or South Korea. So not only do they not have the reserves, they are sh*tt*ng all over thier future opportunity to export/make sales.
Is Poo-tin trying to just bankrupt them back to the Victorian era?
And let's not forget - they're pulling all sorts of military hardware and troops from other parts of Russia, exclaves, neighbouring states and borders. So if you were leader of one of those other countries or exclaves, next year your looking at Poo-tin with no/very little army...
And so it begins. Russia has dropped Nordstream 1 capacity to 20% and Europe will struggle to fill its storage following the annual maintenance that depleted it
It's almost as if the Russians have a new revenue stream in grain, fertiliser and oil. Its serviced Nordstream turbine and western aircraft parts have been released from sanctions as well. Win, win
Russia has increased gas pressure sharply in a pipeline in a manner that could cause a rupture. That pipeline runs through the Ukraine to Europe and is one that Russia wanted to de-commission because the Ukraine was getting rental costs
If you're going to sup with the devil then you need a very long spoon
Theres a FAQ section here on the EUs gas reduction strategy for the upcoming months.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_22_4609
And a bit of context here from the Beeb
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61497315
Russia supplies 40% of the EU's natural gas and 27% of its imported oil. The EU sends the country roughly €400 billion a year in return.
Russia has increased gas pressure sharply in a pipeline in a manner that could cause a rupture. That pipeline runs through the Ukraine to Europe and is one that Russia wanted to de-commission because the Ukraine was getting rental costs
Waiting for a Russian story that "Ukraine has blown up its own pipeline to screw over the west/cant be trusted" type of misinformation.
The EU has agreed an emergency energy plan today https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-countries-seek-deal-weakened-plan-cut-winter-gas-use-2022-07-26/
At what point could this really blow up? Poo-tin playing NATO/EU/UN countries off against himself cannot be good - although his bet surely is that a country like Germany will crack under the pressure?
I think its already blown up tbh, once you step away from simplistic ideological thinking (not referring to you there) its clear that disengagement from a 400 billion a year energy trade isnt easy.
But it appears to be the direction of travel.
They claim to be targeting a 2/3 reduction in Gas this year. With a massive infrastructure investment involved which should have knock on positive economic outcomes. The talk involves a lot of energy saving investments but ive not seen the details, but if true (im sceptical) then that is at least one good thing.
They claim to be targeting a 2/3 reduction in Gas this year
Which makes you wonder about the point of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. NS1 at 90% would seem to be more than adequate in the face of climate change policy reductions (they've been at 40% until a couple of weeks ago)
Which makes you wonder about the point of the Nordstream 2 pipeline.
That's history. My employer wrote off the £1bn investment it had made in that and any future earnings on about day 2 of the invasion.
I think theres been a few similar write offs in that ball park too.
I see alot about the eu reducing gas dependency. what's the uks plan? I know we don't get much from Russia but we are impacted by the increased wholesale cost
Which makes you wonder about the point of the Nordstream 2 pipeline
Fairly sure it would enable Putin to close down one or more of the pipelines that currently go through Ukraine to Europe, stop paying Ukraine for using their infrastructure and increase profits for Gazprom
what’s the uks plan?
You do know whos in power at the momnent?! There is no plan, unless someone is going to profit handsomely from it.
I think the UK gets about 5% of it's gas from Russia, hence the taking of the high moral ground (when we don't have much to lose compared to countries in Eastern Europe).
what’s the uks plan?
Argue amongst the Tory party for a few weeks, desperately try to paste over the disaster that was BoJo's 'leadership' and then do Pikachu face when the gas and electric turns off this winter.*
*And they can blame Poo-tin and the French via EDF for it all. Obvs.
snip... stop paying Ukraine for using their infrastructure and increase profits for Gazprom
No doubt, their transit contract expires in 2024, but Angela Merkel insisted that Russia continued to transit via Ukraine so that Russia doesn't weaken the Ukrainian economy. We now understand how little such an undertaking would mean to Russia
The EU, the US and the UK have been extremely concerned that energy security in Europe would be reliant on Russia and unusually this continued from Trump to Biden in respect of NS2. Poland were also concerned about the necessarily increased presence in the Baltic by the Russians and that this could be a pretext for military patrols
There clearly were options open to Germany, as demonstrated by current plans, while listening to its EU and NATO allies. Germany unfortunately seems to have been centred on its economy without thought for much else, including the ecological disaster caused by laying 700+ miles of pipeline on the seabed.
One of the last acts on Chancellor Schroder was to sign the NS contract, which would make landfall in Chancellor Merkel's former constituency. Schroder is chairman of Rosneft and has been threatened with sanctions by the EU
Hes currently in Moscow allegedly
I think the UK gets about 5% of it’s gas from Russia, hence the taking of the high moral ground (when we don’t have much to lose compared to countries in Eastern Europe).
Apart from having to buy all of our gas on the wholesale market that is 500% up on what it was in march..... And we use a lot of gas.
DT78
Free Member
I see alot about the eu reducing gas dependency. what’s the uks plan? I know we don’t get much from Russia but we are impacted by the increased wholesale cost
The uk's plan is just to let us pay for it.
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
Abstract
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.
Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.
From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:
- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas
- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy
- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst
- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base
- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood
- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy
Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.
Download the visual slide deck accompanying this research monograph here:
https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo
It seems confirmed that Ukraine attacked the bridge again. There are unconfirmed reports that it has been destroyed and also that a Russian armoured column was crossing at the time.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1552034899451944963
Reports of devastating overnight bombing of a resort town on the Black Sea. Seems only to be Twitterati and a bunch of foreign news sites.
If true, it seems the Russian air force has woken up - and is behaving like a cornered bear...
It seems confirmed that Ukraine attacked the bridge again
Closed to civilians, structural integrity maintained, but they (Russia) don't say whether it's usable
Boris has a job if he wants it
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainians-sign-petition-give-citizenship-pm-role-uks-johnson-2022-07-26/
Unconstitutional, but there's bound to be a work around 🙂
And if there is a global upside to this, Germany has just ring-fenced €14bn to make their buildings more energy efficient, but why does it take a European disaster to kickstart climate change measures?
Russia won't be driving any heavy vehicles over that.
https://twitter.com/by_Ukraine/status/1552197970719916037
Cant help thinking that the long term idea was food security for Russia. Ukraine produce huge amount of food stuffs. Bring it into a Soviet union and away from eu control.
Soviet state then control gas, oil, wheat, etc. Good for feeding your population, keeping them warm and the lights on.
The anti nato rhetoric might just be a bluff.
Cant help thinking that the long term idea was food security for Russia.
The anti nato rhetoric might just be a bluff.
Putin and his minions have said exactly why they invaded Ukraine - they don't view Ukraine as an independent country, just part of a Russian empire, they want to rebuild the Russian empire. It was never about NATO, it was about Putin having a fantasy of Russia becoming a superpower that could challenge the Western democracies.
Seeing that bridge after taking all those hits, i'll never be able to play out the closing scene to COD Modern Warfare in the same light again. Reality vs fantasy!
Putin's winning isn't he?
All the early predictions of regime change, protests, sanctions biting etc haven't come to much have they? 6 months in and the current situation looks remarkably similar to the scenario painted by Chewwy a week in.
The EU will be pushing towards a negotiated settlement by Christmas. What Truss thinks won't matter ( photo opps with Zelinsky wont have the cachet once the winter sets in and the heating bills hit the doormat) and the US will be consumed by their own mid term elections.
Putin’s winning isn’t he?
Eh? I suspect many of us thought Ukraine would have a puppet government by now.
sanctions biting etc haven’t come to much have they?
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:
- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas
- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy
- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst
- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base
- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood
- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy
Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.
Russians getting desperate?
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1552443696926584833
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1552410650260881408
Geography is a king in so many ways.
