I heard there were some wars in Asia and the Middle East a while back where some people went to heaven without warning.
Pogues fan?
Suddenly it makes sense why the UA are doing so well, they've got Captain Mainwaring running things on the ground. "Don't tell them your name Pavel.."
It does seem the new artillery is having an impact.
By my count this is 20+ vehicles in one place. Clearly very well targeted, bit more cunning like this and the impact on the Russian morale and practicalities will be big.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1524411221381890054?s=20&t=vGZOBIwXTlULQz1MUyK9Cw
Combined images show 35 armoured vehicles destroyed at that attempted bridge.
Combined images show 35 armoured vehicles destroyed at that attempted bridge.
Very satisfying
That's an incredible loss in one action. The best part of a whole BTG and by all accounts most of their BTGs are are seriously depleted in strength already. Add in to the mix that many of the RF troops now fighting in the East were redeployed after being savaged in the battles around Kyiv. Their morale must be in tatters! Those that make it home will hopefully start spreading a few home truths about how the 'special military operation' is really going.
I'm probably over optimistic - but I hope that daily accurate targeting and moving the artillery and spotting forward will could speed up the end of this war.
I also see Belarus has sent troops to thier border - as the Ukranian's push forward they are near the Russian and Belarusian border. They clearly think progress is being made.
The concern of course is that Russian military seems to have a vengeful, DILLIGAF scorched earth policy. And are increasingly cornered.
Belorussian border is much further west than Kharkiv. It doesn’t start until almost Kyiv.
If the Russian supply lines get cut, they won’t have much ammo to scorch the earth with. Or much kit left at this rate.
Plus the Russian tank reserve storage seems to be the equivalent of leaving your car in a dodgy airport parking field for 30 years and expecting it to start!
They still have 100 odd BTGs in Ukraine , that might not be enough to win the war , but they can still do a horrendous amount of damage. Especially when a lot of their missiles are launched from the sea, air or land that's part of Russia
This will worry Russia
A tank destroyed in Donetsk, Russia has controlled since 2014 , 100km from the front lines
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1524448245539393539?t=iK2TWiNHzPwiCIh0Ou2RFA&s=19
An andain isnt going to stop that from hurting ..
They still have 100 odd BTGs in Ukraine , that might not be enough to win the war , but they can still do a horrendous amount of damage.
But likely very few of them are up to full strength or anywhere near full combat effectiveness.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1524437300574310401?s=20&t=66ObjAf1fYT3IuwmFvGUCw
Finnish President states "You(Russia) caused this" in relation to moving away from neutrality.
I'm sure some will disagree and blame NATO
Did Sweeden and Finland just join NATO by the back door?
Borris has, rightly IMO and I don't often stick up for him, signed a mutal defence pact with them which would mean British boots on the ground in the event of a Russian attack. This would involve the UK attacking Russian targets and presumably any attacks by Russia on the British forces would be seen as an attack on the UK and would oblige the rest of NATO to join in?
Therefore Sweeden and Finland now have NATO protection without officially joining.
Or am I missing something?
…………If you trust the word of our PM.
Of course they will. The hand-wringing screamers that they are. Although not seeing too many cutting about in their hammer & sickle t-shirts of late...
I’m sure some will disagree and blame NATO
That failed river crossing is thought to have cost the Russians 30-50 vehicles and up to 1500 troops!
https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506178616766467
Holy ***t that’s mental! I had seen some reports of Russian troops trapped on the wrong side of the river. If I was a Russian infantryman in Izyum tonight I think I’d be feeling very nervous about the prospect of an encirclement…
I do think though that dislodging them from Kherson and in due course, Mariupol will be a whole different level of difficulty.
andrewh
Free Member
Did Sweeden and Finland just join NATO by the back door?
Borris has, rightly IMO and I don’t often stick up for him, signed a mutal defence pact with them which would mean British boots on the ground in the event of a Russian attack. This would involve the UK attacking Russian targets and presumably any attacks by Russia on the British forces would be seen as an attack on the UK and would oblige the rest of NATO to join in?
Therefore Sweeden and Finland now have NATO protection without officially joining.
Or am I missing something?
It's interesting, bit of a mild escalation to be honest, seems to be officially just with sweden though, bit it's an interesting half step. Left the details deliberately vague. Tbh I give Johnson a bit of credit for it, subtle way of hinting hitting finland is redline for us.
I haven't seen any news about the China thing, but it seems like a huge political blow for Russia.
https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524496432123813893
Just seen a load of pictures of the crossing aftermath. It's ugly.
'Time spent on recce...' is a mantra repeated for a reason.
Did Sweden and Finland just join NATO by the back door?
I was wondering this to, although totally agree it's a good thing in this case. I'm surprised though a NATO member is permitted to sign such a mutual defensive pact with a non-NATO country. What would have happened if pre-invasion say Estonia had signed such a pact with Ukraine?
Also whilst I hope Russia loses badly (and quickly) what comes next is equally alarming - if Putin and his cronies get ousted then surely it's more likely either someone just as bad will fill the void or Russia will break apart and we'll have civil war and unstable nuclear-armed former Russia 'states' than democracy and peace will break out. Sadly probably the best we can hope for is a severely weakened Putin who has to make concessions to democracy for a couple of years before getting bumped off/having an accident and someone more moderate steps in that keeps enough control to keep Russia together but shift it towards democracy.
Be interesting if there is reliable confirmation that China is effectively withdrawing it's support for Russia - will leave Putin completely isolated. Though cornered rats can be vicious.
I wonder if this is making China think it needs to scale back it's own ambitions and plans for Taiwan, possibly wishful thinking
AUKUS is an "alliance/pact" with non NATO members
Without reading the actual agreement I doubt it's a back door entry to NATO, and it would be viewed as an attack on Sweden in which UK forces have an expeditionary element that even if attacked isnt viewed as an article 5 trigger.
Falklands War springs to mind as well.
It’s looking likely that both Finland and Sweden will apply to join NATO immediately anyway. I can’t see Finnish parliament not voting in favour.
Ukraine Cast had an interesting interview with a Moscow Professor in last nights episode. He says that the idea that your average Russian doesn't know what is happening is wrong. Worth a listen (as always).
I was wondering this to, although totally agree it’s a good thing in this case. I’m surprised though a NATO member is permitted to sign such a mutual defensive pact with a non-NATO country. What would have happened if pre-invasion say Estonia had signed such a pact with Ukraine
NATO wouldn't be obliged to join in. I think the implication here is that attacking Finland and Sweden is a redline. Implication being that if Sweden decide that supporting Finland is in their national interest then Sweden can ask for British help. Which is basically saying there will be a wider escalation if that happens without outright saying it. Tbh I think that's correct, there should be a line drawn. That wider escalation would basically mean full support from the Americans, cause the blank cheque book would come out for the British.
It's basically a backstop that defacto gives NATO backing I think. Maybe not NATO backing but full NATO capability.
That guys vid I posted up yesterday has one in the nuclear question all about russian doctrine. I think that's a fair place for a line and unless there's a massive change in the doctrine it won't result in nukes. Russian doctrine is pretty tight on when they would use nukes. That guy explains it pretty well. There's basically 4 use cases. Which all involved the territorial integrity of Russia basically more or less. They won't just launch nukes after spitting the dummy.
Re the destroyed river crossing, we've no way to tell whether the account of the ambush is true or not. The end result is true but the location on the ambush could be due to:
- the account of the Ukrainian engineering officer is completely true and it's outstanding work by everyone working together
- detailed information came from another source (e.g. signals intercept) of the planned crossing so the engineering officer was sent to the right place to "find" something already known, protecting the source. The Allies used to do this in WW2 to protect Enigma, lots of "random" finds of German resupply submarines in the middle of the Atlantic from flying boats
- the Ukrainian forces didn't have advanced planning of the location but had artillery in the area and were able to call in enough firepower in time when the crossing started
Still a great result but it's important to remember that we're being fed what the Ukrainians want us to see and what they want their own people so see. Their information operations are very good.
Actually just learned they signed the paper with Finland too. A lot less subtle than I suggested then.
More evidence of Russian war crimes from earlier in the war are coming to light. Security camera footage of Russians asking two unarmed civilians for cigarettes then afterwards shooting them in the back as they walk away. However much they deny and obfuscate, this and other examples of their barbarism is how the world will see and judge Russia and the Russian people for years to come. A failed excuse for a nation.
Warning: graphic content ☹️
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/11/europe/ukraine-video-russian-soldiers-shoot-civilians/index.html
RE: Sweden / Finland - My understanding is that nothing formal or binding has been signed, just a nice statement.
Johnson is assuming that both countries join NATO pretty quick, so he can look like a strong leader, ahead of the curve without ever really having the risk of having to do anything.
detailed information came from another source (e.g. signals intercept) of the planned crossing so the engineering officer was sent to the right place to “find” something already known, protecting the source.
My money is on this.
However much they deny and obfuscate, this and other examples of their barbarism is how the world will see and judge Russia and the Russian people for years to come. A failed excuse for a nation.
What a barbaric waste of life. I cant fathom why they'd do that, even I'd they suspected them of something arresting them would have been easy. They just seemed to think "**** it, less just murder them"
Remember that Voltaire quote from earlier in the thread? They did it because they have been fed years of propaganda which they now believe completely. I’d like to see those Russian TV pundits tried as war criminals too - they are every bit as responsible for these crimes.
– detailed information came from another source (e.g. signals intercept) of the planned crossing so the engineering officer was sent to the right place to “find” something already known, protecting the source. The Allies used to do this in WW2 to protect Enigma, lots of “random” finds of German resupply submarines in the middle of the Atlantic from flying boats
There is enough surveillance equipment in the sky (Globalhawks, etc) to know exactly what is going on and who is going where.
Johnson is assuming that both countries join NATO pretty quick, so he can look like a strong leader, ahead of the curve without ever really having the risk of having to do anything.
TBH he does like a photo opportunity.
I do wonder if there will be any blowback on this, bearing in mind they don’t seem to worry about a bit of poisoning on other peoples soil.
Can they send Boris a special birthday cake in the post next month?
A friend on Facebook has this to say about Johnson's deal with Finland:
Article 42 of the 2009 EU Treaty requires “other EU countries to come to the support and aid, with all possible means, of a member state under armed attack,”.
So this Boris Treaty, is actually recreation of the commitment we had under EU membership. Nothing new...
/\/\ that's the "mutual defense clause"
I dont doubt it's mostly posturing/signaling, and for Boris a dose of PR.
That agreement is only in place and has any meaning so long as it has meaning and usefulness to one Boris Johnson.
Wasn't there also an undertaking made by the US and UK to look out for Ukraine in the event of threats from neighbouring states in exchange for them giving up their nukes? What was that worth on contact with reality?
I've not read that many accounts for that reason, there's a fair degree of bullshit from both sides for differing reasons, but a picture(s) paints a thousand words.
The images do indicate that the Russians hadn't fixed any of the conditions for even attempting an obstacle crossing in view of an opposing force. And thus got absolutely malleted for it. Like I said, 'time on recce is seldom wasted'.
Re the destroyed river crossing, we’ve no way to tell whether the account of the ambush is true or not.
What was that worth on contact with reality?
Depends how you want to look at it.
If its A) roll into Ukraine guns blazing then not so much
If its B) everything but A) then it's open for debate
Just reminded myself on the Budapest memorandum
Wiki has these bullet points
Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.
Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.
Signatories included;
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Russia
United Kingdom
USA
China
UN security council seems a bit pointless in all that
@piemonster good point - which is why in the Cold War the US, UK and France kept a brigade each in Berlin although it was not defensible. If Berlin was invaded all 3 countries would have had their forces attacked, so would have had to join in the defence of Germany.
