I don’t know this first-hand, but I understood from someone in the supply chain that older munitions were either fire for practice, or test-fired to see if the bang-percentage met the spec and the batch could have it dates extended. Is this not always the case?
See my post above
In the UK military, samples of ammo approved for operational use are routinely selected at random from stock for proof testing. If this goes well, shelf life can be extended, If not it is either downgraded for training use only or marked for disposal.
An interesting UK government document backing up everything said above. Section 13 covers shelf life of gun propellants based on temperature. TLDR - ammunition can last a relatively long time if kept in a temperate climate but degrades rapidly at high temperatures. Along time does not mean since 1957, it means 15-25 years.
The problem with not having stockpiles but trying to ramp up manufacturing quickly is that it's hard. There's the capital cost of the machinery being under used. Even with automation you're going to have to hire and train more people. Then there's supply chain - can every part of the shell be procured rapidly including fuses?
Increasing the size of stockpiles is the only way to go. It may be possible to stockpile cases but you need the capacity to fill them very rapidly so there's still and argument for stockpiling complete shells.
When I was training to be an ammunition technician at one of the army apprentice colleges in the early 1980s, we did a tour of all the Royal Ordnance Factories. ROFs Chorley, Bishopton, Bridgewater, Radway Green, Bishopton, Glascoed and a load more I forget. These were government owned factories which made explosives or filled them into munitions. They had excess capacity and lines that could be ramped up or mothballed as required. They didn't have to turn a profit, though some did. They were backed up by a healthy private sector such as Nobel's Explosive Company which was part of ICI.
All were privatised and flogged cheaply to BaE systems or (in the case of private industry) went out of business due to lack of government contracts. Many are now closed. As a nation we no longer have the strategic capability to manufacture propellants or military high explosives at scale. ROF Bridgewater used to manufacture RDX high explosive, Bishopton propellant etc. All now closed. The facilities (such as Radway Green) which still fill or assemble ammunition have to buy the explosives from France, Sweden etc. because we as a nation no longer think it's important to maintain that strategic capability.
The ROFs fed a network of huge central ammunition depots, such as Bramley, Longtown, Kineton etc. Bramley is closed, Longtown much reduced in size and only Kineton still operates at any scale. There was also a network of small regional ammunition sub depots, many of which are now closed. These were filled with huge stocks of 'war maintenance reserve' ammunition, properly calculated on the basis of a shooting war in Europe. An expensive insurance policy for sure, but one we no longer think worth paying the premiums for. The government was seduced by the idea that just in time logistics or contracting out which worked in automotive manufacturing etc. would work for ammunition supply in war time. It doesn't.
Sums up the whole country really. Most people don’t care and would rather pay less council tax instead. Until they suddenly need it….
I'm sure this is just the tip of the iceberg. This is why the "Russia has 15,000 tanks in storage" reports shouldn't be taken seriously - anything that has any value has already been looted and sold on the black market, all that's left are rusting hulks.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1651494541503913985
I never understood why we sold off all the defence establishments. There was perhaps an argument for RAE Farnborough being run in a similar way to the US National Labs - still owned by the country, run by a contractor for a fixed period to do what the government told them to do. Should we have lost RSAF Enfield? Possibly, lots of other countries closed their national small arms armouries but they had thriving private firearms industries to fall back on. For shells and bombs it makes no sense.
The peace dividend of the 90s is coming back to bite us.
Everyone forgets the maxin: In times of peace, prepare for war. They just look at the cost of things, see that they are not war and then decide that things are too expensive.
Why do you need tanks if the probability of war on the plains is now really low? Why do you need so many frigates and destroyers when naval warfare is just never going to happen? Why do you need so many regiments if there is nowhere for them to deploy to?
I remember seeing the photos of "the fleet" when I visited the bar at HMS Rook officers' mess way back in the day and it was HUUUGE. Now, if you want to use Gib as a harbour, you have to book it so people are there.
In times of peace, prepare for war.
Or 'walk softly, but carry a big stick'. When I joined the army many, many moons ago, it's strength was around 160,000. Now it's 76k, soon to reduce to 73k. Not enough to fill Wembley stadium. 'Teeth arms' will be a small proportion of that, when all the clerks, cooks, mechanics, storemen, signallers etc. (important though they are) are considered.
Small expeditionary ops and peace keeping missions are about all we can manage - properly defending the realm against a tier one foe? Hmm... 🤔
A full scale war changes things though - how many of the Ukrainians fighting now were in the army before the war?
I'd be interested to know whether the UK MoD is ramping up procurement of ammo. If not, why not, and if so, when did they start? A sensible Govt would have been getting quotes as soon as Putin started building up on the Ukraine border, and put them into effect as soon as he went over it ... but we don't have a Govt like that.
Everyone forgets the maxin: In times of peace, prepare for war.
It seems people would rather go by the other old saying " god and the navy we adore, when danger threatens and not before..." 😕
^^^ Yep and also...
"O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, go away";
But it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play"
I’d be interested to know whether the UK MoD is ramping up procurement of ammo. If not, why not, and if so, when did they start?
Without getting into details, there are varying stocks of ammunition, operational and training as has already been said by OB. Defence isn't in the business of telegraphing operational holdings.
The war games that everyone is referring to blew through the estimated ammunition allocation, which is perfectly okay because that's how you learn; through training.
A full scale war changes things though – how many of the Ukrainians fighting now were in the army before the war?
What are you suggesting? A draft? Having trained troops at both Phase 1 & 2, I've seen volunteers fold, so I'm not fully convinced pressed-men would do much better. See Russia for the meat grinder they've turned their forces into.
UK Armed Forces struggle to fill the current orbat, if we had a massive increase too rapidly it would bring nothing but issues. See the surge in Iraq as an example.
What are you suggesting? A draft?
If the UK was invaded in the way Ukraine has been I think there would be plenty of volunteers to help defend. Whether they are any good or not is a different matter. Getting to a draft stage would mean things are seriously screwed.
But isn’t the numbers thing what NATO is for, so no one nation is left to fight alone.
Defence isn’t in the business of telegraphing operational holdings.
The war games that everyone is referring to blew through the estimated ammunition allocation, which is perfectly okay because that’s how you learn; through training.
Yes indeed, I don't disagree at all, but I wasn't thinking of the war games. We've donated a lot of munitions to Ukraine, and are politically committed to donating more. I've read that we're now short ourselves; I don't know if that's true. I don't expect to be told operational holdings, just to be reassured that something is being done in a timely manor to ensure that we have adequate stocks for ourselves and whatever we may wish to donate further. We ran down our stock of medical PPE, and were caught out by Covid; are we at risk of the same thing with munitions?
*Pikachu shocked face*
Russian vessel at the pipeline bomb site 4 days before the blast...
https://twitter.com/JKaarsbo/status/1651650991341576200
looks like they found Nemo
*Pikachu shocked face*
shouldnt laugh but that made me spit out my coffee.
(kids are very into pokemon!)
I’d be interested to know whether the UK MoD is ramping up procurement of ammo. If not, why not, and if so, when did they start?
I was under the impression that when Boris (other Tory PM's have been available) said "we're sending £billion in military equipment to the Ukraine", what was means was "We've sent an amount of kit that will cost us £billion to replace, but was mostly either munitions going out of date, old hardware that was destined for storage/export anyway, but the actual value is relatively negligable". So the budget and purchase orders to replace it would already have been in the pipeline.
A sensible Govt would have been getting quotes as soon as Putin started building up on the Ukraine border, and put them into effect as soon as he went over it … but we don’t have a Govt like that.
If you think the government operates like a current account, then they're a bit stretched at the moment and couldn't afford it.
If you subscribe to MMT then there isn't the unemployment rate to support additional government spending without making inflation worse.
If you're a military planner, it doesn't matter either way. What's Russia going to do to us directly after their army's been decimated (by our kit) in the Ukraine?
Apologies if has been mentioned previously but Google Earth has been updated and is now showing war damage. I've just been looking at Mariopol and the Theatre with "kids" clearly visible from space.... and oh my what a mess.
*Pikachu shocked face*
😂
Anyway, whats Seymour Hersh saying?
*Pikachu shocked face*
Yeah, astounding news. Russia blows shit up and Putin apologists in the West deny the reality before their eyes. Shocking!!!
Past week or two on Twitter, the trending Ukraine tags always lead to anti-Ukraine tweets.
I always find myself asking if Russian officials say [insert story of choice], what actually happened?
It's like the two 500kg bombs that dropped in Belgorod a week ago that were an "emergency release of an air ordnance".
It clearly wasn't part of Russia's 2023 development of 1960s-tech FAB500 bombs that have had a winged-guided unit grafted on so that their aircraft can launch them from Russia (photo here
) They are not quite at JDAM-levels of engineering
It clearly doesn't show that Russian aircraft don't want to get anywhere near Ukrainian airspace (Belgorod is 25 miles inside Russia), or that Russian tech is less than the pinnacle of world armaments (one bomb didn't detonate, never mind either standing-off as intended or landing in Ukraine)
So what's the real story with the Crimean oil storage explosion?
Lighted cigarette of course, just an accident, nothing to see here, move along please.
Reality is its probably heavy oil or bunker fuel for navy vessels. Whilst being a high value military target short term gains will not be noticed on the front line. Plus Russia is not short of oil or refinery capacity so replacement is easy, once a few new storage tanks are sourced
True Russia does have plenty of fuel reserves, but crucially not necessarily in the right place if ukr destroys them.
It also keeps showing how effective ukrs drones are / weak russian defences are - then again we don't know how many missions are launched and how many are countered, we just see the odd success on twitter.
Seems odd the rail network still seems to be functional in the occupied areas, and from reading commentators Russian logistics really upon rail.
Plus Russia is not short of oil or refinery capacity so replacement is easy, once a few new storage tanks are sourced
The fuel needs to be delivered to fuel depots near the fighting. Blowing up the fuel depots means that ships, tanks, aircraft, trucks, etc. can't be refueled. Russia can't just pop down to the hardware store and buy some new fuel tanks, they have to be fabricated and installed, then all the plumbing and control systems have to be installed. That will all take time, so Russia's fighting capacity will be reduced until it's all finished.
I know that, but i also know that aircraft, trucks and tanks do not run on heavy fuel. Pump derv yes, and avtur or jp4 not the thousands of gallons of bunker oil you have to have sitting next to a naval base.
One could argue that stikes against airfield fuel depots would be strategically more beneficial, but having seen Russian military airfield fuel storages and distribution network first hamd they are not in any way as easy to blow up as an overground silo. At least the airfield i explored wasn't. Concrete encased pipework, underground bunds, blast deflectors etc.
One could argue that stikes against airfield fuel depots would be strategically more beneficial,
Ukraine will just be blowing up any Russian infrastructure they can. It won't be a matter of choosing between different targets.
One could argue that stikes against airfield fuel depots would be strategically more beneficial,
Nice visuals for Russian social media - and any Russians (army/civ) still in Crimea
Ukraine will just be blowing up any Russian infrastructure they can. It won’t be a matter of choosing between different targets.
Infers unlimited supply of munitions and target vulnerability, which we know is not the case or it would be like fireworks night, every night. Plus UAF have to go carefully with strikes over borders to avoid collateral damage, wheras Russia litteraly can lob stuff into Ukraine territory without giving a stuff about where it lands.
Russia have sacked the Admiral of their Pacific Fleet after snap exercises that were designed to impress the Chinese and by all accounts did anything but.
In more deckchair rearranging fun, the Russian army’s head of logistics (who was only appointed about 6 months ago) has been replaced.
If I didn’t know any better I’d suggest that they’re all basically incompetent..
If I didn’t know any better I’d suggest that they’re all basically incompetent..
Sounds very much like Tory leaders.
Leonid Bershidsky said this in 2018, "Years of thought suppression, the erosion of intellectual life and educational institutions, and Putin’s clear preference for personal loyalty over competence have taken a toll on Russia’s public service, including the intelligence community"
Past week or two on Twitter, the trending Ukraine tags always lead to anti-Ukraine tweets.
Qu’ell surprise? I mean, considering who Putin’s sock-puppet is who now owns the whole teetering edifice.
If I didn’t know any better I’d suggest that they’re all basically incompetent...
Most Russian military officers do like to stand around and look impotant…
The UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) was expanded in August and partners UK, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland and Lithuania
The second bidding round has opened for worldwide suppliers of mobility support (tank transporters, bridging and minefield breaching) and long-range strike missiles (100-300km)
Maybe, as with the supply of Challenger 2 main battle tanks, the fund will shake loose additional similar supplies from the US and Europe
A c130 emptying its flare bin
Nostalgia time for you 😀
There seems to be a trend emerging of fuel supplies inside Russia being destroyed.
Taman is just over the border inside Russia, as is Bryansk where a fuel train was derailed for the second time in a couple of days
I've also just seen a tweet that the weather is rather dry and warm for the next few weeks now. I wonder if the much talked about spring offensive might start...
I’d expect plenty of “false starts” and pressure across the line to keep the Russians guessing first.
Interesting article on the beeb about the 'immortal parade' being moved online citing security concerns, or, potentially the authorities are worried about the number of recent photos that will be held up from those who've been killed in ukraine
Could be homegrown discontentment but easier to blame Ukraine.
symbolism is pretty striking
Russia claiming it was an attempt on Putin's life
Russian drone made to look like it hit .. to push for full draught of fighting aged males. Almost like another desperate act .
Yeah, my money is on a Russian false-flag attack for propaganda purposes.
Russia claiming it was an attempt on Putin’s life
Even though he wasn't in the building!
“The Russian side reserves the right to take retaliatory measures where and when it sees fit,” it said.
What, like say regularly shooting missiles, launching drone strikes and occupying the country the perpetrators are suspected of being from? Yeah no problem.
I've seen fireworks make a bigger bang and flash than that!
My money is on staged to do as little damage as possible, but to show how terrible those Ukrainians are.
A very symbolic act though - the Russians blew up the Swastika on the top of the Reichstag Building at the end of WWII.
I wonder if this is just a pretext to launch an even wider mobilisation on victory day
or increased vengeful brutality, hopefully not a tactical nuke. Pretty cheeky really when they've been trying to kill Zelenskyy for over a year now.
Why are there some people climbing on the Kremlin roof at the time of the drone explosion?
Why is the drone able to fly - apparently there is electronic jamming or similar systems?
Such a small drone did not arrive from Ukraine - that has to be internal?
(etc)
hmmmmm
I wonder if this may be a 'pipeline explosion' moment...
Purely for the domestic audience that.
From what I can see, it doesn't even hit the building. It comes in from top-left, gets lost briefly in the flare around the moon, then goes just beyond the flagpole before exploding. So if it's been launched from within Russia and is indeed a false-flag job, it's a pretty piss-poor effort at things. On the other hand, if it's flown all the way from Ukraine, and gets within 10ft of its intended target, then that's not a bad job.
Lolz
Remember when those drones shut down Gatwick
Russia's going full paranoid
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1653794280111054848?s=19
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1653796412381954050?t=-IMNRNn2KD3lNubUFaBDKA&s=19
So either an excuse to call up more in the draft or cancel the may day parade.
It's not like Putin lives in the Kremlin I'd be surprised if he has any windows in his secret lair nevermind a flagpole
Let’s not forget that the Russians have a history of false flags.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_allegedly_involved_in_Russian_apartment_bombings
"Mother Russia is under attack! To the army and man the barricades my comrades!"
R4 news reporting a 5 day curfew has been put in place across Kherson region - both sides of the front line...
The Russian terrorist state killed 21 people shopping today in Kherson, and protest when a couple of frisbees bounce of their lair.
TASS report a fire at the Ilsky refinery inland of Novorossiysk port. Their main operation is crude distillation and the fire was out within two hours.
It seems to be minor and again may be part of Russia painting a picture of the threat posed by Ukraine
Nordic journalists have pieced together the movements of several Russian ships in the NordStream area on 21st-22nd September including submarine rescue vessel SS-750 and tugboat SB-123 capable of launching mini-submarines
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-navy-vessels-seen-near-nord-stream-before-blasts-nordic-broadcasters-2023-05-03/
On my admittedly rubbish Chinese phone that Twitter video resembles a model. Or CGG, its probably real, but also possible its not. Quite a good way for Russian members of the public to show distain from a safe distance, fly a drone at the Kremlin.
Get more intersting if they add a payload, but most hobby drones can only carry a few ounces
Agree it's unlikely to have been a UA operation, although seems unlikely to me that it's a false flag to - surely it just makes Putin look weak if even the Kremlin is shown to be vulnerable? I'd have thought a Russian false flag drone attack would have hit a hospital or something. Seems more likely to be disgruntled Russians to me but I guess you can't assume anything with Putin and his muppets.
Our old friend Prigozhin is now on record as saying that the counteroffensive has started. They seem to be planning to go through/around Bakhmut, though this may of course be a feint. I’m betting on the RA collapsing if the UA breakthrough and start to circle round.
God only knows what that thing that ‘hit’ the Kremlin was all about. Other than it was almost certainly not the Ukrainians. False flag maybe.
Rapid unplanned disassembly of Putin is whats needed. I bet if they go ahead with the May Day parade a Stunt* Putin will be wheeled out.
* I may have spelled "stunt" incorrectly....
Rapid unplanned disassembly of Putin is whats needed.
Might seem attractive, but Russia has literally no "establishment". It's not a function state in the sense that if Sunak or Biden were assassinated, the state would rumble on, In Russia, not so much. Who knows what the fall out would be if Putin was out of the picture. Fancy trying to negotiate with Prigozhin?
If that drone in Moscow was Ukrainian that would suggest that there was a Ukrainian team in the city itself unless they have a small drone that can be operated from hundreds of miles away.
The Kremlin has layered drone defences and their systems also disrupt GPS systems, city drivers on satnav hate it
Ukraine used to fly drones 3km, commercial drones can barely manage 500m on the frontline now and that's opposing otherwise poorly-equipped Russian troops
Taken together with the film-effect explosion I'm unconvinced
I think most of the normal free thinking western world understand that its just a wee bit dodgy ..But the none free thinking folk of Moscow its all NATOs fault
It's a pretty poor execution, so doubt it's anything Ukrainian, more. likely local groups around Moscow, or Moscow themselves, the fact it's initiated high and away from the target makes it nothing more than a firework.
It’s a pretty poor execution, so doubt it’s anything Ukrainian, more. likely local groups around Moscow, or Moscow themselves, the fact it’s initiated high and away from the target makes it nothing more than a firework.
Absolutely. It provides an excuse for all sorts, but pressingly Moscow has nothing to parade on Victory Day on the 9th.
President Putin restored Victory Day to an annual event in 2008 demonstrating Russian power in various cities and countries. I doubt that they even have the workers to string bunting currently
it does seem rather convenient.
So there's this...While he appears to having a shit fit...Are those bodies behind him? Is he filming this while standing in front of dead Wagner mercenaries?
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1654263502838845440