Grim 🥹
And they wonder why Ukraine will fight them for every inch of dirt.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
Documentary on the UK led training courses turning ordinary Ukrainians into soldiers. BBC3 tonight 9pm or iPlayer.
Got a bit dusty watching that…..
Stacy Dooley is an amazing presenter - really showed the personal side of it.
Documentary on the UK led training courses turning ordinary Ukrainians into soldiers. BBC3 tonight 9pm or iPlayer.
Well that was a powerful bit of TV.
And they wonder why Ukraine will fight them for every inch of dirt.
One explanation for it (recording it and publishing it on Social Media seems very deliberate) is that it puts into the minds of the Russian soldiers that they can expect poor/appalling treatment from Ukrainians if they are captured because of what other Russians have done. In a twisted way trying to improve their will to fight.
The whole thing is beyond my comprehension so I have no idea how close to the mark that is.
There is a very graphic video of a Ukrainian soldier getting beheaded,..and his head put on a spike in Bakhmut.
Not even sure I have the words.
When you staff your army with the worst human scum found lingering in the dark corners of Russian prisons its hardly surprising when this sort of things happens.
The Russian Army now have the same level of credibility as ISIS.
One explanation for it (recording it and publishing it on Social Media seems very deliberate) is that it puts into the minds of the Russian soldiers that they can expect poor/appalling treatment from Ukrainians if they are captured because of what other Russians have done.
More likely that the Russian soldiers have been brutalized themselves and get a kick out of being sadistic so they want to share it with their mates.
When you staff your army with the worst human scum found lingering in the dark corners of Russian prisons its hardly surprising when this sort of things happens.
Word. War is inhumane as a standing point, what keeps it loosely within the boundaries are well-trained, motivated troops keeping (or being kept) in line with LOAC and their individual morals and unit/service ethos.
Russian military doctrine, training and manning takes a big dirty shit on all of that. There will be more, some of it won't see the light of day yet, but we will be hearing about atrocities commited for years to come.
I'm still quite suspicious that this was a deliberate leak disguised as a disgruntled employee.
https://twitter.com/svdate/status/1646341323585101827
Bellingcat seem to have drawn a similar conclusion as to the leak's source.
Sadly I suspect the leaked stuff is real , amazing how many Americans have access to top secret info!
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1646553521968250884?t=i8vQg1UatVrDOcptaT9AcA&s=19
The assessment that USA doesn't think Ukraine will be able to take much back in a counteroffensive I do hope is wrong, but I fear they don't have the armaments they need, eh tanks & planes
So the assessment was Ukraine wouldn’t be able to mount an offensive, so what are the west doing about it? 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
futonrivercrossing +1
Many other countries have a *lot* to lose now and in the future to see Russia win or even just take some succour from the situation.
I kind of want NATO to just decide enough is enough and just end this war within a week....but I guess the nuclear fear is the reason why.
I kind of want NATO to just decide enough is enough and just end this war within a week….but I guess the nuclear fear is the reason why.
NATO have wanted to put peacekeepers in for a long time, or speedily push Ukraines membership, but the reality is that there's just too much risk of escalation, Russia and Putin are not showing any reasoning for what they are doing and why, you start pushing Western troops in and it will get even more messy, remember it's not just Russia you have to worry about, there are several nations who sit on the fence, or back Russia behind closed doors.
It's just a huge mess that went past the point of madness a while back, and the options for any resolution are getting slimmer and slimmer.
As for the US leaker, just read he's a 21 year old national guard, what an absolute idiot, this is no Snowden, he will not get any backers i guess and could see his life being all but over at 21, it's mental to think that.
As for the US leaker, just read he’s a 21 year old national guard, what an absolute idiot
There have been several cases of documents being leaked in order to prove that "someone is wrong on the internet".
There is one online tank simulator game that actually has to have an official policy of "no the devs wont look at classified documents proving tank x has a turret turning speed of x" because its had several cases of people posting classified documents to prove the tanks they want to use (since its their daily drive) are better than the sim says they are.
I’m not suggesting NATO boots on the ground, 500 Leopard 2 tanks, and 200 challengers would be a start. 🤷♂️ we are self deterring, Russias nuclear blackmail cannot be seen to work, it’s all been hot air anyway 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
I’m not suggesting NATO boots on the ground, 500 Leopard 2 tanks, and 200 challengers would be a start. 🤷♂️ we are self deterring, Russias nuclear blackmail cannot be seen to work, it’s all been hot air anyway 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
200 CR2's would be our entire operational stock, 500 Leopard 2's would be at least two nations entire operational stocks, and i mean the top two owners of L2's. The support package for that would be even more complicated, with spares, ammunition, support vehicles and so on.
From the sounds of it there's a lot more to focus on than tanks at the moment, a lot of NATO countries are trying their best to balance out support against pushing Russia too far.
As for the US leaker, just read he’s a 21 year old national guard, what an absolute idiot
Thing is, if it was a deliberate leak to throw Russia off, this would be a brilliant way to do it. Or, it could be exactly what the U.S. is saying it is - a guy with mental health issues. Either way, Russia doesn't know how seriously to take the documents. Some of them will be genuine, but it's impossible to know how many aren't.
As for the US leaker, just read he’s a 21 year old national guard, what an absolute idiot
Personally I hope they throw the book at him and he spends the next 25-life in the clink. Young guy, but spouts racism, antisemitic views and is in league with that type of far right hate groups. Where does he get that from, not personal experience i should think.
So fk him.
Young guy, but spouts racism, antisemitic views and is in league with that type of far right hate groups
Also in trouble ought to be whoever allowed him access to that kind of information, or designed the system that allowed it.
Agreed Greybeard - that's a huge institutional issue to be addressed. Probably, like guns, there will be a shrug and a 'well, what can you do?' response.
Where does he get that from, not personal experience i should think.
Its good to see after that came out some of the right wing nutjobs are getting behind him as a "whistleblower".
Which seems to be stretching the term a bit.
beeb has an interesting article on his background. Sounds like his father was in the same intelligence unit
Probably, like guns, there will be a shrug and a ‘well, what can you do?’ response.
Or a campaign to promote him as the victim of an unjust prosecution. (Keep in mind there's someone else that MTG thinks is being unfairly investigated for illegal possession of classified documents. See if you can guess who I mean.)
https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1646615867285708802
Its good to see after that came out some of the right wing nutjobs are getting behind him as a “whistleblower”.
Which seems to be stretching the term a bit.
Just can't see it ending well for him, he won't have any real backing, he made the US look bad, his leak only really benefited the Russians, he's not going to be making many friends with the right wingers, as this failure revolves around the US military, rather than the democrats or any left wing backers.
I'm just amazed it's a 21 year old lad with a lot of bad press coming out about him, having dealt with the US they're pretty hot on this, can see a lot of people being a bit twitchy about this leak other than the lad in custody!
Marjorie Green Greene is so far right that her own party keep clear of her, i think even Trump avoided backing her as she's just seen as political poison.
He won't have any real backing when it comes to the crunch, he's going to prison for a long time, military justice system doesn't screw around in the US.
However, for the Republican politicians who have been trying to undermine the US support for Ukraine for almost a decade, he's a useful idiot for their cause right now. They want large swathes of Ukraine handed to Russia. If Trump had been president last year, very little US support would have been forthcoming, in fact, he'd probably have threatened to pull out of NATO to stop the rest of its allies from pitching in.
he’s
notgoing to be making many friends with the right wingers, as this failure revolves around theUS military, rather than the democrats or any left wing backerswoke deep state who have hijacked the greatest military on earth to further their socialist agenda of letting men dress up in ladies clothes and cuddle in public, etc.FTFY
Also in trouble ought to be whoever allowed him access to that kind of information, or designed the system that allowed it.
I'm sure I read somewhere the other day that 1.25 million people in the US have access to classified stuff. If that's true, or even a tenth of that number, it's not super surprising that stuff like this happens.
Also in trouble ought to be whoever allowed him access to that kind of information, or designed the system that allowed it.
Remember that it's not just the system, it's how people use it. As far as I remember Chelsea Manning didn't normally have access to the stuff that was released to Wikileaks but the logins were written on notes under the terminals. People are always the biggeset issue 🙁
I suspect many of the MAGA crowd are rushing to this knucklehead's defense primarily because of the parallels between this and a certain other classified documents case that's going on right now.
The US public has just had a very public demonstration of what happens to you if you retain classified docs whilst not being fortunate enough to be a former POTUS. Makes somewhat of mockery of all Trumps whining when he's clearly been treated with kid gloves.
The stuff that was supposedly found in the raid at Mar E lago is reported to have also been several levels spicier than the documents in this case.
Of all the legal cases facing Trump, this remains the most dangerous to him IMHO.
not just the system, it’s how people use it
Yes, sorry, we're using different definitions of 'system'. I meant the whole thing including the people, culture, supervision, etc.
One of the big data breaches in the U.S. a few years ago came from the HVAC contractor. Logging in to the HVAC system gave access to the entire network, which wasn't very well secured. The hackers gained access to the HVAC company, got into the retailer's network, escalated to admin privileges, then they had full access to all the customer credit card data. The U.S. military must have tens of thousands of I.T. technicians who already have some admin privileges and are basically just trusted to not do anything malicious.
If that’s true, or even a tenth of that number, it’s not super surprising that stuff like this happens.
Id say if thats the case its a dead cert China & others have access as well
Of all the legal cases facing Trump, this remains the most dangerous to him IMHO.
Can't see them doing much to an ex-president over this, if anything it was his departmental security team that are at fault, if Mar E Lago had this information, then they should have created a SCIF and secured it appropriately, same as this young lads scenario, if he's got classified documents via a SCIF then there's even bigger questions to be answered by a lot more people.
Can’t see them doing much to an ex-president over this, if anything it was his departmental security team that are at fault, if Mar E Lago had this information, then they should have created a SCIF and secured it appropriately, same as this young lads scenario, if he’s got classified documents via a SCIF then there’s even bigger questions to be answered by a lot more people.
You clearly aren't up on the facts of the case. Trump literally has his fingerprints all over this. He took the documents. The U.S. government asked for them back. Trump and his people stalled and lied. They returned some and said they'd returned them all. Trump is apparently on security camera footage visiting the storage room, presumably to remove documents he wanted to keep. Eventually, after months of polite requests, the FBI got a search warrant and found hundreds of missing documents. This was not a bit of laziness on the part of Trump's staff, it was him right at the center taking documents, refusing to return them, and then lying about it.
There have been many other cases, Biden for example, of people having classified documents, usually through just not realizing they're classified. In those cases, the documents were returned immediately and the people who had them gave honest answers about everything. Those cases are rarely prosecuted because they are just cases of someone making a simple mistake, without any malicious intent. Trump is different because it was deliberate and he has been utterly dishonest about it right from the very start. I think that is will end up being the strongest case against Trump and the DOJ will prosecute him to the maximum.
+1 to what Thols2 said, the Trump documents case has a whole load of extra angles to it that make it a much, much bigger deal, with more coming out all the time.
It's a vastly more serious case than anything regarding Stormy Daniels and in theory much easier to prove a felony on than the cases regarding Jan 6th and the Georgia phone call.
It's not surprising that Trump's acolytes are now trying to make excuses for Jack Teixeira as a way to muddy the waters for when the pretty inevitable indictment lands in Trump's case.
As expected some captured Russian kit is ending up in the USA.
Although I would assume the really good stuff would get transported by the US military and not via commercial freight.
I do love how its got a label like you get on a normal package stuck on the barrel.
Unless someone is really bored and dedicated to practical jokes.
Unless someone is really bored and dedicated to practical jokes.
You pretty much described the avergage squaddie in a nutshell there.
It's all getting a little obvious that China is itching for Russia to try out it's new weapons in Ukraine.
Oh yeah, why's that?
Article today and the guardian which states that a growing number of Chinese made components are being found in Russian weapons.
I seem to following Pet Shop Boys for news these days…
https://twitter.com/petshopboys/status/1639970538356457474?s=21
https://twitter.com/petshopboys/status/1646784845425569792?s=21
https://twitter.com/petshopboys/status/1647933051194802178?s=21
Poor guy, getting clobbered for speaking the truth.
Getting some real anxiety about Ukraine ATM, the anticipation of the counteroffensive but nervous because so much rests on it both for Ukraine and globally.
Getting some real anxiety about Ukraine ATM, the anticipation of the counteroffensive but nervous because so much rests on it both for Ukraine and globally.
Ukraine has been underestimated before, but the high costs of tying up Wagner etc in Bakmuht will have taken its toll, Russia has a had a while to dig in, they have adapted and improved their tactics to an extent and does Ukraine have enough tanks, artillery, air support etc to make it work?
Only Zelenskyy % Co knows if the price of holding Bhakmut was/is worth it.
Getting some real anxiety about Ukraine ATM, the anticipation of the counteroffensive but nervous because so much rests on it both for Ukraine and globally.
Same, who knows what will happen, but it may turn out to be just as much of a damp squib as the Russia counteroffensive.
Ukraine has been underestimated before
Agreed, hence why I have high hopes, they've proven they can pull off some incredible feats when given the support required. But so much of this relies on pure luck.
A sudden downpour that brings back the mud, a bridge collapsing, a tank breaking down and blocking a key road and an intel slip up that tips off local Russian forces, any of these could make a real difference in where the end result sits.
On such minutiae does history turn.
The Kherson offensive was pretty slow wasn’t it, I wonder how many of those Russian troops who escaped across the river have been killed in the Russian offensive? At least that offensive (Russian) came to nothing, and at a very high cost.
Nervous too, we’ll see in a few weeks. I expect there will be a lot of Ukrainian disinformation floated first!!
I’m hopeful. If the UA can break through and get behind the Russian defenses, I think that the atrocious morale of the RF could precipitate a collapse. Rats and sinking ship springs to mind. All appendages crossed..
Yes it is worrying, but also, every European county is pretty commited to pushing Russia back to its pre- crimea invasion, for very obvious reasons.
Also the USA.
The Ukraine government is probably building up huge debts for this, but they should also get a lot of discount/leeway, as it's really not in the interest of the EU or the USA to allow Russia to gain ground, and Ukraine is on the pointy end of the stick.
From everything I have read the only way there can be a lasting peace from this is if Ukraine retakes Crimea. If they dont, then there can be no lasting peace as they will continue to be vulnerable to further Russian land and sea aggression. I hope they are successful because that then will ensure that this war will end for the foreseeable.
I'm not sure how committed European nations are with regards returning Crimea.
Crimea is joined to the mainland by a strip of land that is 5 kilometres wide, any attempt to retake it would surely result in a whole other level of carnage.
I would be very surprised if Ukraine managed to reclaim either Crimea or the land in the east the Russians held before the recent invasion.
Other European nations are probably looking on (like us), waiting to see how much land Ukraine can retake in the coming counter offensive and they will re-calculate their support accordingly. Perhaps the best Ukraine can hope for is to retake the land in the south, denying the Rusians the land bridge to Crimea.
I think the theory on Crimea is that once they get close enough they can reach it, and more importantly the bridge, with Himars etc. Isolate the land bridge, blow the Kerch bridge, start shooting and the Russians will have to pull back. The big Kherson and Kharkiv offensives happened when the battles were already won through attacks on logistics.
Also lots of aid has been marine focused to support this. Without Crimea the Russians will continue to threaten another land push to Kherson, and the Dneiper, and also threaten any sea traffic in the black sea. Ukraine has no choice on this.
I think USA and UK have always realised this but played it down. France, Germany and Turkiye now realise this which is why their rhetoric and aid quantity has changed.
Re-taking control of 250 miles of Russia-Ukraine land border in the Donbas and then defending the whole 1400 miles is a daunting task. Add the Belarus-Ukraine border into the mix and the military task becomes monumental.
200 miles of that border with Russia is sea and Ukraine would have to deal with that too
Re-taking Crimea and dropping the Kerch bridge would very publicly underline the failure of Russia's 2022 invasion by losing land that they've held since 2014.
I think that the hope has to be that Russia would turn its attention to the internal problems that are already smouldering and turn its forces around simply because it needs internal security and labour to get society moving again. Belarus will quietly go back to its pre-2022 status
I don't see this ending well sadly. Too much money, corruption, power, jeopardy and ego involved. Once you've marched all you4 troops up the hill, it’s very hard to bring them down again and maintain face/power.
I'd be interested to hear from any of those on here with military experience how it might be possible to take Crimea from a military standpoint.
Russia was 'renting' Sebastopol from the Ukranians prior to 2014, something agreed upon when the Soviet union broke up. It is a deep water port from which Russia can dominate the Black Sea and access the Mediterranean amd the Mid Atlantc.
Russia is the largest country in the world but has very limited access to the seas. Murmansk s is stuck in the Artic Circle, Sebastopol is in Ukraine and Vladivostok is essentially in Outer Manchuria, (which the Chinese consider to be part of China) and it freezes over during winter.
They will not give up Sebastopol (and by definition Crimea) without one hell of a fight and it could even be the trigger for deploying a tactical nuclear weapon. Any attempt to recapture it would inevitably involve tens of thousands of troops being packed into a five kilometre wide strip that will likely have been denuded of civilians prior to the action. The Ukranian forces would effectively be forming a bait ball.
Aside from the nuclear scenario, the Russians wouldn't exactly need accurate artillery to defend the peninsula, it could just turn the border areas into a diorama of the Somme.
I personally don't think a straightforward southern push into Crimea is very likely for the exact reasons stated above. Obviously the Ukrainians could have some cunning scheme to do just this that we don't know about yet but it would need to be very cunning indeed.
However.... the with the Kerch bridge's railroad still out of action the vast majority of the supplies for all the troops and Civilians in Crimea and Kherson south of the Dnipro is coming in from the east by Rail along the land bridge Russia seized in early 2022.
If Ukraine can push just a little way south they can bring the crucial rail junction in Tokmak within HIMARS range they can effectively cut off Crimea's bulk supplies.
If they can cut that link and keep it cut, Crimea would eventually become indefensible.
This is what I thought they'd try and do when the ground froze in Winter but the Winter was too mild and they've clearly decided to wait until the a decent chunk of the new Western hardware is in theatre before kicking it off, the timing has changed but Tokmak remains a huge glowing Russian vulnerability and I'm sure Ukranian planners are working out how best to get at it.
I don't think they necessarily need to take Crimea by direct assault, which would indeed be carnage for the attackers. If they can isolate it by cutting the land bridge from Melitopol and the Kerch bridge they can bide their time while the Russians panic without significant logistic resupply. I know there are ferry routes and air resupply options (both vulnerable to attack) but I doubt they could cope with the sheer weight of military and civilian supplies needed for the whole peninsula. Throw in some stand-off drone/HIMARS attacks on logistic hubs and SF/partisan activity into the mix too, and things would get pretty desperate for the occupiers PDQ.
I have seen another argument to do all the above, but leave the bridge to give the Russians an escape route.
Edit: Hatter beat me to it. Must learn to not get distracted and wander off halfway through typing a reply!
Saw some pics of Bradley fv in theatre so the necessary hardware is trickling in. Canada also delivering vehicles this week.
Russia was ‘renting’ Sebastopol from the Ukranians prior to 2014, something agreed upon when the Soviet union broke up.
An agreement since terminated by Putin.
"An agreement since terminated by Putin."
Absolutely, occupying Crimea made the agreement to rent Sebastopol null and void and from a moral standpoint Putin would be receiving his just deserts were he to lose that port,
It's not just about Putin though, he has dragged his whole country into this and the loss of Sebastopol would be unthinkable for most Russians. I would imagine Sebastopol is far more important to Russia than the Dombass and the stakes would rise accordingly should their presence there come under direct threat.
They will not give up Sebastopol (and by definition Crimea) without one hell of a fight and it could even be the trigger for deploying a tactical nuclear weapon.
This is my fear to, I can't see Putin surviving if he loses Crimea so might feel what else does he have to lose. Or at least some false flag bio weapon. Even if there's no well-organised plot against him (unlikely due to the control he has) it wouldn't be impossible for someone reasonably trusted to do the deed.
As others have said, Ukraine don't need to (and probably can't) attack into Crimea directly (in the short term) without taking huge losses, it's too much of a bottleneck. But destroying the bridge and cutting off the water supply + the ports being in HIMARS range means Russia would struggle to hold it long term. They'd probably evacuate civilians and destroy most of the infrastructure and just hold out in some of the key locations for several months.
Yeh, I think starving them out of Crimea is the best thing certainly short term, as it's not taking it back per-se it's a more passive action.
Maybe that's why the russians haven't fully repaired the bridge as they proably know Ukraine will just take another pot-shot at it to keep the rail link out of commision, which on the surface would be a pretty easy thing to do, so it's a bit of a mexican stand off of attrittion in that respect?
"Crimea would eventually become indefensible."
There's more than a few folk who have said that over the centuries!
Broadly agree with you though, the need to restrict and ideally cut the land bridge to Crimea is vital for Ukraine. Even though the Russians were caught out last fall, they could still relocate forces from the south to the north east in response.
The immediate benefits of taking back the land north of Crimea would be to disrupt Russian logistics and flexibility to such an extent that it would alleviate pressure on all fronts. Not to mention they could cut the water supply to the peninsula again.
Would putting the Kerch out of action be enough for the Russiansto consider the peninsula indefensible? I'm not so sure? and the 'leaving the Russians an escape route' narrative presupposes that the Ukranians only intended to blow up the road section, leaving the rail section intact so I don't put too much faith in that theory.
All we (and the Russians) know is that Ukraine can destroy the bridge if it wants. In which case, (putting the escape route theory aside) why hasn't it done so again?
Purely speculation on my part but the fact that they haven't finished the job suggests that Ukraine is using the fact that Russia knows how vulnerable the bridge is as a bargain chip in future negotiations?
The ability to destroy the bridge is the closest thing Ukraine has to a tactical nuclear weapon, (in respect of the fact that a single action can have huge and instant consequences), though cutting the water supply is also a fairly 'nuclear' option for Ukraine as well.
All we (and the Russians) know is that Ukraine can destroy the bridge if it wants.
I'm not entirely sure that's the case. I know there are conflicting theories as to how the bridge was attacked, but the most credible to me* seems to be a large Vehicle borne IED. The Russians certainly seem to think it was (and they are not ALWAYS lying)! If it was, then the Russians will have massively stepped up security and vehicle inspection making it much, much harder to carry out a repeat attack using the same MO.
*Not saying it definitely was, but seems by far the most likely. Though a good few years out of date, I have a background in counter terrorist bomb disposal and explosive damage estimation. I have stood in a good few craters following VBIEDs functioning, both on test and proof ranges during trials and on the streets for real following attacks.
Russia doesn't need Crimea because it has the warm water Port of Novorossiysk just a few hours further up the coast (not that warm, it just doesn't freeze)
Sevastopol and Crimea have massive historical connotations for the Russian Black Sea Fleet going back to its formation some 240 years ago.
President Putin opened the Kerch Bridge in 2018; it's the longest bridge in Europe, the longest bridge built by Russia and cost $3.7bn. Crimea is a projection of his power and ability and was also a holiday resort for Russian citizens.
Re-taking Crimea, whether directly or indirectly, is so obvious that Ukraine will initially do something completely different 🙂
Could Ukarine not knacker the bridge again using a drone submarine?
South american drug cartels have been using them for years to get coke into europe.
https://insightcrime.org/news/second-ever-narco-sub-europe-herald-atlantic/
If they can get them across the atlantic with a 3 ton payload, a smaller modern military spec drone 'bomb' submarine should be easy.
Could Ukarine not knacker the bridge again using a drone submarine?
Surely the bridge is protected by submarine nets or similar?
Surely the bridge is protected by submarine nets or similar?
Maybe, but assuming that, could they not send a smaller drone sub slightly ahead to blow a hole in the net to allow a bigger one through?
Have any of you done a map recce of the north of Crimea? Looking at crossing points is giving me indigestion; they're all choke points. If I was asked to formulate a plan, I'd be ordering extra body bags, as I'd be expecting a bloody fight unless J2 was telling me something very different.
I'm not up to speed on the UKR capability so couldn't give have a stab in the dark response to the question of taking it.
If I had all the toys at my disposal, it would involve simultaneous litoral and airborne assaults on the key conurbations with armour led battlegroups onto the northern crossing points and a plan in reserve for the Kerch bridge (if they look like they're going to run, leave it open to facilitate withdrawal then deny it. Or if they want to fight, deny it, maritime assault to reinforce) then fix them on three sides using the terrain to the south as a backstop.
That's a very loose plan which would be ridiculous in it's complexity and glosses over a lot of detail, I've pulled out of my arse with no real idea of the terrain, RU troops numbers, capability, morale and dispersion. The int gap is huge therefore my idea is just stupid musings on the internet to be taken with a pinch of salt and a swig of vinegar.
That’s a very loose plan which would be ridiculous in it’s complexity and glosses over a lot of detail
You really need air superiority for a mass airborne assault (or surprise but that's unlikely given the prep required). Crimea is also covered by a sophisticated Russian SAM network (including from within Russian territory). You also need to be able to resupply by land fairly quickly in order for air assault troops to be able to hold ground. Whilst it would be a likely attack scenario for a NATO force (+ seaborne assault) it's unlikely Ukraine could carry it out, they don't really need to take the risk either when starving and grinding Russian forces out of Crimea should work in their favour short-medium term
Things warming up in the south...
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/20/frontline-update-ukraines-counteroffensive-has-begun/
Could be could be a false alarm, could be a feint, it'll become apparent in the next 24 hours.
What is certain is that columns of Ukranian armour were observed yesterday near the front and each had multiple vehicles sporting mine rollers and ploughs already installed.
You don't just roll around with that kit fitted for fun.
This thread on Twitter gives a lot of historical context - how Crimea has been conquered through the ages. Sounds like a tough job but it's been done multiple times, although generally at great cost.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1640428287200509961
Hovercraft would be useful I reckon.
Update, no 'chatter' about the offensive yet from the usual well connected suspects.
So they've either all been told to shut their traps like they were before Kharkiv or it's a false alarm designed to mess with Russian heads.